WHAT IF: Giambi had hit 4 homers last night
Posted by Andy on May 20, 2011
This is an interesting thought...
Jason Giambi homered in his first 3 at bats last night and then struck out in each of his final two. He had a shot at 4 homers but didn't do it.
But what if he had?
I wonder what sort of long-term impact that would have had on his reputation. I don't mean with our community necessarily, given that we know that there are some guys who hit 4 homers in a game who weren't particularly great HR hitters otherwise (see Mark Whiten and Mike Cameron, for example.) I don't think Giambi hitting 4 HR would have changed our opinions much.
But Giambi was once one of the top HR hitters in the game. His performance tailed off significantly right around the time he admitted use of banned substances. While that may have been coincidence, it seems to many more likely that his use of steroids improved his performance significantly, and when he stopped, his performance dropped too.
But many would also assume that Giambi is now clean, and if he had made the front page by hitting 4 HR in a game, it might have changed a lot of people's opinions about his capabilities and what his number even from past seasons truly meant.
Thoughts?
May 20th, 2011 at 10:38 am
He's still using, probably.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:04 am
I don't think it would have changed anyone's view of Giambi. If we assume that most fans have concluded that steroids played a big part in his best seasons, I can't imagine anyone revisiting that assessment based on one game.
Looking at that game and the rest of Giambi's 2011 season (he was 2 for 26 before yesterday), I am reminded of Babe Ruth's last blast of glory, his 3-HR game with the Boston Braves on 1936-5-25. Ruth was 9 for 59 before that game; then he went 4-4 with 3 HRs, 6 RBI (in a losing effort); and after that, he went 0 for his last 9 with 5 strikeouts, and was released.
Over the past 2+ seasons, Giambi has batted .216 and slugged .400, with an OPS+ of 96. Last night was a blip.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:12 am
JA you might be overestimating how much thought the average fan gives things. I think they tend to gut with gut feel more than carefully considered arguments. One big memorable game may make a big difference (even though it shouldn't.)
May 20th, 2011 at 11:19 am
Think it will take more than a few big games to turn his reputation around, his drop-off just came too fast.
http://www.baseballcomeback.blogspot.com/
May 20th, 2011 at 11:23 am
It might, but considering the hits came off Kyle Kendrick, and Danys Baez, who are pretty much human white flags, it's hard to see it mattering much. One more might have meant something, but Giambi has had a lot of years in the public eye, it isn't like he has just burst onto the scene.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:27 am
His performance tailed off significantly right around the time he admitted use of banned substances.
Did it? He had the weird tumor thing in '04, which was a lost season, and I remember people ruminating that it had something to do with steroid withdrawal. He gave the steroid apology before the '05 season. He got off to the terrible start in '05, and the Yankees wanted to send him to the minors. He then went nuts and hit like a beast for the 2nd half of '05 and '06, and remained productive (if injury-prone) the next couple seasons (by which time he was 36-37).
May 20th, 2011 at 11:29 am
I don't buy that it would have made any difference. A player performing well after he ceases to use steroids doesn't prove anything, because he's already gotten the advantage. He may not be continuing the regimen, but he's already altered the muscle mass of his body so that so long as he keeps working out, he will remain in a state beyond what he would have achieved in the absence of steroids. He'll lose some muscle mass, but he's not going to fade into Craig Counsell either.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:40 am
@3, Andy -- Actually, I agree with your take re: the average fan going with gut feelings. But I would argue that such habits make them even less likely to reconsider a previous conclusion.
I think the reassessment you speculated on might well occur if Giambi had a good full season, but not one game, even a record-tying one.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:42 am
I think the cloud of steroids will always follow Giambi.
He was actually kind of an under-appreciated star for many years because On-Base percentage is/was an unappreciated skill. From 1998-2006 he had a .433 on base percentage. And then on top of that he had a .570 slugging percentage with a 162 ops+. He also should have won the 2001 Al MVP.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:43 am
Fair point, JA @8
May 20th, 2011 at 11:44 am
Also, to the extent that a casual fan might be inclined to reassess Giambi based on a hypothetical 4-HR game, I think their conclusions would tend more towards comment #1 on this thread: "He's still using, probably."
(Aside to Brendan Burke -- I certainly don't mean to imply that you're a casual fan -- just using your words to make a point.)
May 20th, 2011 at 11:48 am
meh, Hard Hittin' Mark Whiten had a four homer game too.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:55 am
As an aside ... I've always felt that Giambi and the Yankees each got their karmic just deserts from his 7-year tenure there: No championships, one pennant, plenty of scandal and acrimony.
(But then, I'm just a bitter Mets fan....)
May 20th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
@ 6
I agree. he continued to be very good, then got old at a typical time for MLB players. Not so old to no longer play but be nearly as effective
May 20th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
The guy abused steroids and at the same time never looked after himself. sure he was strong but in a nightclub bouncer sort of way, fat and strong is not too bad when you are young but catches up with you quickly when mixed in with a few injuries.
http://www.baseballcomeback.blogspot.com/
May 20th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
For the "casual fan" I think the first reaction would probably be
Jason Giambi? You mean, he's still playing baseball?
Their most-likely next thought is neatly encapsulated in comment #1.. No way is it Oh, well, he hit four home runs in a game, that changes my entire opinion of him. Because the prevailing opinion of him isn't very positive, and would take a lot (and a long time) to change. If he turned into an Ichiro-style slap hitter and legged out another thousand infield hits or something, that might change opinions. But one night, however magical, won't change anything (and in fact might reinforce a lingering suspicion about "magical" substances)
Incidentally, that Mike Cameron 4HR game is notable for a couple of other reasons: he and Bret Boone hit back-to-back HR twice in the same inning off two different pitchers -- not a good night for the White Sox pitching staff. Especially since it was the first inning. Cameron also came very close to having 5 HRs: in his last AB of the night, in the top of the 9th, he flew out to warning track in RF. He had 6 PA in that game, but in the other non-HR one he was hit by a pitch to load the bases.
May 20th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
[...] WHAT IF: Giambi had hit 4 homers last night Andy at the B-R blogs wonders if a 4th home run might have rehabilitated Jason Giambi’s reputation somewhat. [...]
May 20th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
He had two chances. So, he could have hit 5 home runs. Now that's a game-changer.
check out my blog:
http://pinetarandbrickbats.blogspot.com/
May 20th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
@16, Joe -- Echoing your opening line was this blurb from Buster Olney's column today:
"I sent out a tweet noting Jason Giambi's first home run Thursday, and I swear that half of the responses were along these lines: Jason Giambi still plays?"
May 20th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
A couple of thoughts on Jason Giambi.
I believe he didn't get full playing time until he was 25 (Waiting behind McGwire). So while his peak seemed small and late, I think it was just an age thing. Remember, guys like Andruw Jones had 5 full seasons at age 25.
He was also one of Billy Beans' biggest examples of his theory that power is one of the few hitting attributes that can be learned in the majors. Beans' philosophy (while he still thinks power is essential), he wants his young talent pool to have good plate discipline, high OBP and coach-ability. He stressed power could come to any player, but a good eye was something harder to learn later. Which I think is true, but does it insinuate that Bean knew or was actually complicit in the rampant PED use in the A's farm system. BTW, Giambi's minor league HR high was 12.
At Johnny Twisto's comments on Giambi's various ailments while playing in New York. The tumor thing was never really documented. giambi alluded to it, but many believed it to be a smoke screen for other issues related to PED use. He also had strange issues with his eyes, having calcium deposits scraped from his inner eyelid - the first I have ever heard of that. But back to the tumor thing. Often when you stop steroid use, especially cold turkey, your body will behave stangely. Often, cancer or tumors are detected indirectly by blood tests. The body has certain antibodies present when some one has a tumor. Some of these same chemicals can be produced as a side effect of steroid use. But, if Giambi simply lied, to cover for fatigue from steroid withdrawl, that is pretty low.
Giambi also had a younger brother whom it is rumored to have used PEDs as well. Obviously Jeremy did not have near the career of his brother. So while I hate to echo some of the sentiments of Barry Bonds, but PEDs don't automatically make you an all star (see Jason Grimsley). There needs to be a base talent, which Giambi had in spades.
I personally think of all the users and alleged users, he was the most forthright (way before Pettitte) and there is something, at least for me, to be admired in his honesty. He also implicated himself while not implicating others and finger pointing (see Palmerio and Canseco).
A misleading thought on Giambi, is he took the money from the Yankees and Lebron Jamesed the A's. But the truth is he was more than willing to stay with the A's for less money, but wanted a no-trade clause, that Bean refused.
Lastly I think it says a lot for Jason that he is in the role he is currently in. He doesn't need the money ( I think), and most players have too large an ego to be a glorified pinch hitter. I think he is out there - out of pure love of the game. And yes 4 homers would change the way everyone thinks of him. I disagree with Andy that us, the Saber crowd, wouldn't care that much, but then why do we remember Mark Whiten? I'm not saying it would push him into the Hall of Fame, but it would be a great foot note on a tumutulous career. Just look at Ruth, the greatest in the game, and we often sight his 3 HR game, which in his bigger picture is not that important. Or the second best player, Ted Williams, is remembered as much for his .400 season as HRing on his last at bat.
Just my opinion
May 20th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Just a side note, mildly related...
But how many recent MVPs have either admitted steroid use or have had a very high likely hood of using.
Caminiti.
Tejada
Giambi.
A-rod.
I-rod.
Juan Gonzalez.
Bonds.
Canseco.
Clemens.
So 23 years since Canseco admitted he used PEDs during his MVP campaign (46 MVPs) - at least 18 winners (counting multiple winners) are technically ineligible.
Sad.
May 20th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
But the truth is he was more than willing to stay with the A's for less money, but wanted a no-trade clause, that Bean refused.
I believe it was actually the ownership, not Beane, that refused.
I wasn't too high on the contract when he signed it. I thought 7 years was just too much for a bulky guy without much defensive ability, and he would be a real waste by the end. I think it actually worked out pretty well. '04 was a bad season, as mentioned, but he came back very strong and hit well until the end. WAR estimates he was worth 22 wins for the Yankees, while earning $120M. That's about $5.5M per win. Not the most efficient use of money but far from a disaster.
May 20th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Add Sammy Sosa to that list as well.
May 20th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
@ Fouc33
I've heard things about Bagwell, Thomas, Rollins - and then there was the unexpected 33 HRs from Larkin the year after his MVP, and let us not forget Gagne. His falloff was epic. And one of the strange things (which I do not have the facts to back up, but simply rumors) was that Gagne still had great stuff, he just lost trust in his ability and suffered from mental fatigue more than anything else.
May 20th, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Beltran, McCann, Gonzalez...Holy smokes, did anyone notice Jose Bautista hit three homers in a game last weekend? And he's hit 80 since September 7, 2009. The next runner up is Konerko at 52.
May 21st, 2011 at 2:24 am
@2 and comparison to Babe Ruth.
John, I had the very same thought reading Andy's intro. I have a strong hunch this will be Giambi's last season, at age 40 just like the Babe. Griffey's age 40 season last year (minus the last-hurrah HR game) also comes to mind.
Unless Giambi picks things up in a huge way, hard to see why the Rox (or anyone else) would keep him much longer. If he follows the pattern of Ruth and Griffey, that could happen by Memorial Day.
May 21st, 2011 at 2:59 am
I was surprised Giambi was in the big leagues this year. In 09 and 2010 he was useless.
I was equally surprised Matt Stairs scored a contract this year. Everytime I saw him hit last year he looked completely overmatched though he did hit just enough bombs to be decent. His .070 BA with no home runs seemed inevitable.
May 22nd, 2011 at 7:53 am
Oldest players to hit 3 (or more, but that turned out to be irrelevant) homers in a game are all Hall of Fame caliber players except that Giambi is borderline:
Stan Musual - age 41.229
Jason Giambi - age 40.131
Reggie Jackson - age 40.123
Babe Ruth - age 40.108
Dave Winfield - age 39.192
Frank Thomas (the recent one) - age 39.113