Hitting turnarounds in 2011
Posted by Andy on May 20, 2011
There were 29 players in 2010 to have at least 300 PA's and an OPS+ no better than 80.
Of those guys, here are the ones with the best OPS+ so far this season:
Rk | Player | Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | Pos | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nyjer Morgan | 178 | 2011 | 30 | MIL | NL | 15 | 35 | 29 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | .379 | .419 | .586 | 1.006 | *9/8 |
2 | Alex Avila | 142 | 2011 | 24 | DET | AL | 36 | 138 | 120 | 15 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 12 | 34 | .283 | .346 | .525 | .871 | *2 |
3 | Casey Kotchman | 130 | 2011 | 28 | TBR | AL | 34 | 107 | 97 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 10 | .330 | .393 | .402 | .795 | *3 |
4 | Michael Brantley | 126 | 2011 | 24 | CLE | AL | 39 | 168 | 147 | 21 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 20 | .286 | .359 | .415 | .774 | *87/D |
5 | Erick Aybar | 121 | 2011 | 27 | LAA | AL | 31 | 139 | 129 | 11 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 20 | .310 | .343 | .434 | .777 | *6 |
6 | Cameron Maybin | 119 | 2011 | 24 | SDP | NL | 43 | 174 | 154 | 23 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 39 | .266 | .337 | .429 | .766 | *8 |
7 | Ronny Paulino | 113 | 2011 | 30 | NYM | NL | 12 | 37 | 32 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | .313 | .405 | .344 | .749 | *2 |
8 | Adam Kennedy | 103 | 2011 | 35 | SEA | AL | 32 | 104 | 97 | 10 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 13 | .258 | .282 | .423 | .704 | *4/3D |
We can ignore Morgan due to lack of PAs so far this year. But check out Avila---his SLG this year is .525, compared to .340 last season. Brantley is one reason for Cleveland's turnaround. And Maybin got bounced to his third team but might stick this time.
Maybe more interesting is the reverse. There were 66 players last year to have at least 300 PAs and an OPS+ of 120 or better. Here are the ones not doing as well in 2011:
Rk | Player | PA | Age | Tm | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | Pos | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Magglio Ordonez | 30 | 106 | 37 | DET | 26 | 99 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 11 | .172 | .226 | .232 | .459 | *D9 |
2 | Carl Crawford | 47 | 174 | 29 | BOS | 41 | 165 | 14 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 32 | .212 | .249 | .285 | .533 | *7 |
3 | Vernon Wells | 49 | 152 | 32 | LAA | 35 | 142 | 18 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 30 | .183 | .224 | .303 | .527 | *7/89 |
4 | Kelly Johnson | 50 | 178 | 29 | ARI | 41 | 160 | 17 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 53 | .181 | .251 | .300 | .551 | *4 |
5 | Hanley Ramirez | 66 | 175 | 27 | FLA | 40 | 157 | 22 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 29 | .217 | .297 | .312 | .609 | *6 |
6 | Chris Johnson | 70 | 144 | 26 | HOU | 36 | 136 | 11 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 37 | .206 | .250 | .360 | .610 | *5 |
7 | Dan Uggla | 75 | 194 | 31 | ATL | 46 | 176 | 20 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 37 | .193 | .268 | .364 | .632 | *4 |
8 | Aubrey Huff | 76 | 171 | 34 | SFG | 42 | 154 | 13 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 34 | .221 | .281 | .364 | .644 | *39/7 |
9 | Torii Hunter | 80 | 194 | 35 | LAA | 45 | 170 | 16 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 21 | 38 | .218 | .304 | .324 | .628 | *9/D8 |
10 | Nick Swisher | 83 | 169 | 30 | NYY | 40 | 139 | 20 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 25 | 34 | .223 | .337 | .317 | .654 | *9/3 |
11 | Dustin Pedroia | 86 | 195 | 27 | BOS | 42 | 163 | 21 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 31 | .239 | .356 | .307 | .662 | *4 |
12 | Hideki Matsui | 87 | 151 | 37 | OAK | 37 | 140 | 12 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 24 | .236 | .291 | .371 | .663 | *D |
13 | David DeJesus | 88 | 162 | 31 | OAK | 38 | 142 | 14 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 18 | .232 | .317 | .345 | .662 | *9/8 |
14 | Geovany Soto | 89 | 121 | 28 | CHC | 31 | 106 | 13 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 20 | .226 | .322 | .387 | .709 | *2 |
15 | Carlos Gonzalez | 89 | 173 | 25 | COL | 41 | 151 | 26 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 29 | .245 | .324 | .404 | .728 | *7 |
16 | Justin Morneau | 90 | 152 | 30 | MIN | 36 | 139 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 24 | .245 | .309 | .367 | .676 | *3/D |
17 | Adam Dunn | 91 | 159 | 31 | CHW | 38 | 133 | 13 | 27 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 23 | 51 | .203 | .321 | .368 | .689 | *D/3 |
18 | Jack Cust | 95 | 162 | 32 | SEA | 38 | 133 | 9 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 47 | .226 | .364 | .293 | .657 | *D |
19 | Josh Willingham | 97 | 157 | 32 | OAK | 39 | 139 | 18 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 12 | 47 | .230 | .306 | .396 | .701 | *7/D |
I used 100 PAs as a cutoff in 2011, otherwise we'd see names like Manny Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Joe Mauer, etc--guys who haven't played all that much.
May 20th, 2011 at 10:36 am
You say we can ignore Morgan because of so few PAs, but if you impute last years terrible performance for 100PAs and add it to this years, you end up with an OPS around .711 and and OPS+ of 110ish. So his 35 PAs really are good enough to suggest that he was shrugging off last year so far.
May 20th, 2011 at 10:53 am
The A's have three guys and the Angels have two on the second list. What's up with the AL West?
May 20th, 2011 at 11:22 am
This is a tangent, but ... Lately, every time I look at a player's 2011 standard batting line and then see the OPS+, I do a double-take. Adam Kennedy, with a .282 OBP and middling power, has a .704 OPS ... and a 103 OPS+.
OK, playing in a tough park boosts Kennedy's OPS+. Still, I looked at players from 2001-05 with at least 300 PAs an OPS between .700 and .710. The median OPS+ for that group was 85, with a high of 95.
Or to flip it around ... Michael Brantley has a 126 OPS+, and a .774 OPS. From 2001-05, hitters with 300+ PAs and an OPS+ between 124 and 128
had a median OPS of .870 -- almost 100 points above Brantley's mark.
Even though I'm well aware of the different times we're in, I still have to kick-start my brain to make the adjustment for individual player stats.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:31 am
Unfortunate that Kelly Johnson is doing so poorly. If he had matched last year's decent output, AZ would have received a solid return in prospects when they traded him this summer. The most likely to turn things around in the rest of the year are, in my opinion: CarGo, HanRam, Pedroia and Dunn. They all have too much ability or too much of a track record to fail so miserably this year, and a few of them are already rebounding. Although Pedroia's strikeout #s and lack of power are disturbing.
May 20th, 2011 at 11:35 am
JA - I agree, we all have to recalibrate our minds, in the pitching stats as well. Cliff Lee has an ERA of 3.84 - quite solid most years - but it's only good for an ERA+ of 99, even in his home ballpark!
May 21st, 2011 at 2:39 am
Is Vernon Wells another fall-off-a-cliff 35 year old?
His start reminds me of Ortiz start last year. Ortiz, though, turned it around big time in May (1.211 OPS). So far, not much sign of that for Wells.
May 21st, 2011 at 2:46 am
Actually, I now see Vernon is only 32 (my eyes aren't what they once were).
Hard to know if his injury will set him back further, or give him a fresh start when he returns.
May 21st, 2011 at 3:02 am
Seems like Wells and Crawford are having issues with adjusting to playing for a new team, after playing for their first teams for 10+ years.