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Hitting turnarounds in 2011

Posted by Andy on May 20, 2011

There were 29 players in 2010 to have at least 300 PA's and an OPS+ no better than 80.

Of those guys, here are the ones with the best OPS+ so far this season:

Rk Player OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Nyjer Morgan 178 2011 30 MIL NL 15 35 29 3 11 2 2 0 3 2 8 .379 .419 .586 1.006 *9/8
2 Alex Avila 142 2011 24 DET AL 36 138 120 15 34 9 1 6 24 12 34 .283 .346 .525 .871 *2
3 Casey Kotchman 130 2011 28 TBR AL 34 107 97 9 32 4 0 1 7 9 10 .330 .393 .402 .795 *3
4 Michael Brantley 126 2011 24 CLE AL 39 168 147 21 42 7 0 4 19 17 20 .286 .359 .415 .774 *87/D
5 Erick Aybar 121 2011 27 LAA AL 31 139 129 11 40 8 1 2 14 7 20 .310 .343 .434 .777 *6
6 Cameron Maybin 119 2011 24 SDP NL 43 174 154 23 41 6 2 5 15 17 39 .266 .337 .429 .766 *8
7 Ronny Paulino 113 2011 30 NYM NL 12 37 32 1 10 1 0 0 2 5 6 .313 .405 .344 .749 *2
8 Adam Kennedy 103 2011 35 SEA AL 32 104 97 10 25 4 0 4 10 4 13 .258 .282 .423 .704 *4/3D
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/20/2011.

We can ignore Morgan due to lack of PAs so far this year. But check out Avila---his SLG this year is .525, compared to .340 last season. Brantley is one reason for Cleveland's turnaround. And Maybin got bounced to his third team but might stick this time.

Maybe more interesting is the reverse. There were 66 players last year to have at least 300 PAs and an OPS+ of 120 or better. Here are the ones not doing as well in 2011:

Rk Player OPS+ PA Age Tm G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Magglio Ordonez 30 106 37 DET 26 99 4 17 3 0 1 5 7 11 .172 .226 .232 .459 *D9
2 Carl Crawford 47 174 29 BOS 41 165 14 35 7 1 1 11 7 32 .212 .249 .285 .533 *7
3 Vernon Wells 49 152 32 LAA 35 142 18 26 3 1 4 13 7 30 .183 .224 .303 .527 *7/89
4 Kelly Johnson 50 178 29 ARI 41 160 17 29 7 0 4 8 12 53 .181 .251 .300 .551 *4
5 Hanley Ramirez 66 175 27 FLA 40 157 22 34 6 0 3 15 18 29 .217 .297 .312 .609 *6
6 Chris Johnson 70 144 26 HOU 36 136 11 28 7 1 4 17 5 37 .206 .250 .360 .610 *5
7 Dan Uggla 75 194 31 ATL 46 176 20 34 7 1 7 15 17 37 .193 .268 .364 .632 *4
8 Aubrey Huff 76 171 34 SFG 42 154 13 34 10 0 4 20 14 34 .221 .281 .364 .644 *39/7
9 Torii Hunter 80 194 35 LAA 45 170 16 37 4 1 4 19 21 38 .218 .304 .324 .628 *9/D8
10 Nick Swisher 83 169 30 NYY 40 139 20 31 7 0 2 19 25 34 .223 .337 .317 .654 *9/3
11 Dustin Pedroia 86 195 27 BOS 42 163 21 39 5 0 2 10 29 31 .239 .356 .307 .662 *4
12 Hideki Matsui 87 151 37 OAK 37 140 12 33 10 0 3 16 11 24 .236 .291 .371 .663 *D
13 David DeJesus 88 162 31 OAK 38 142 14 33 4 3 2 14 15 18 .232 .317 .345 .662 *9/8
14 Geovany Soto 89 121 28 CHC 31 106 13 24 8 0 3 12 15 20 .226 .322 .387 .709 *2
15 Carlos Gonzalez 89 173 25 COL 41 151 26 37 7 1 5 25 18 29 .245 .324 .404 .728 *7
16 Justin Morneau 90 152 30 MIN 36 139 10 34 11 0 2 13 11 24 .245 .309 .367 .676 *3/D
17 Adam Dunn 91 159 31 CHW 38 133 13 27 10 0 4 19 23 51 .203 .321 .368 .689 *D/3
18 Jack Cust 95 162 32 SEA 38 133 9 30 9 0 0 14 28 47 .226 .364 .293 .657 *D
19 Josh Willingham 97 157 32 OAK 39 139 18 32 5 0 6 25 12 47 .230 .306 .396 .701 *7/D
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/20/2011.

I used 100 PAs as a cutoff in 2011, otherwise we'd see names like Manny Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Joe Mauer, etc--guys who haven't played all that much.

Related posts:

    Pitching turnarounds in 2011
    Traffic Jam on the Interstate: 13 Batters Hitting Below .200
    Active hitting leaders
    Top strike-throwers in 2011
    Tampa Bay Rays are not hitting

This entry was posted on Friday, May 20th, 2011 at 9:36 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

8 Responses to “Hitting turnarounds in 2011”

  1. Michael E Sullivan Says:
    May 20th, 2011 at 10:36 am

    You say we can ignore Morgan because of so few PAs, but if you impute last years terrible performance for 100PAs and add it to this years, you end up with an OPS around .711 and and OPS+ of 110ish. So his 35 PAs really are good enough to suggest that he was shrugging off last year so far.

  2. Jeff Says:
    May 20th, 2011 at 10:53 am

    The A's have three guys and the Angels have two on the second list. What's up with the AL West?

  3. John Autin Says:
    May 20th, 2011 at 11:22 am

    This is a tangent, but ... Lately, every time I look at a player's 2011 standard batting line and then see the OPS+, I do a double-take. Adam Kennedy, with a .282 OBP and middling power, has a .704 OPS ... and a 103 OPS+.

    OK, playing in a tough park boosts Kennedy's OPS+. Still, I looked at players from 2001-05 with at least 300 PAs an OPS between .700 and .710. The median OPS+ for that group was 85, with a high of 95.

    Or to flip it around ... Michael Brantley has a 126 OPS+, and a .774 OPS. From 2001-05, hitters with 300+ PAs and an OPS+ between 124 and 128
    had a median OPS of .870 -- almost 100 points above Brantley's mark.

    Even though I'm well aware of the different times we're in, I still have to kick-start my brain to make the adjustment for individual player stats.

  4. DD Says:
    May 20th, 2011 at 11:31 am

    Unfortunate that Kelly Johnson is doing so poorly. If he had matched last year's decent output, AZ would have received a solid return in prospects when they traded him this summer. The most likely to turn things around in the rest of the year are, in my opinion: CarGo, HanRam, Pedroia and Dunn. They all have too much ability or too much of a track record to fail so miserably this year, and a few of them are already rebounding. Although Pedroia's strikeout #s and lack of power are disturbing.

  5. DD Says:
    May 20th, 2011 at 11:35 am

    JA - I agree, we all have to recalibrate our minds, in the pitching stats as well. Cliff Lee has an ERA of 3.84 - quite solid most years - but it's only good for an ERA+ of 99, even in his home ballpark!

  6. Doug Says:
    May 21st, 2011 at 2:39 am

    Is Vernon Wells another fall-off-a-cliff 35 year old?

    His start reminds me of Ortiz start last year. Ortiz, though, turned it around big time in May (1.211 OPS). So far, not much sign of that for Wells.

  7. Doug Says:
    May 21st, 2011 at 2:46 am

    Actually, I now see Vernon is only 32 (my eyes aren't what they once were).

    Hard to know if his injury will set him back further, or give him a fresh start when he returns.

  8. Jimbo Says:
    May 21st, 2011 at 3:02 am

    Seems like Wells and Crawford are having issues with adjusting to playing for a new team, after playing for their first teams for 10+ years.

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