10+ strikeout games and team records in those games
Posted by Andy on April 14, 2011
In 2011, for the first 10 games that each team has pitched, there have been a total of 49 games with at least 10 strikeouts.
In fact, here is the total for all seasons going back to 2001:
| Rk | Year | #Matching | W | L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2009 | 55 | 28 | 27 | Ind. Games |
| 2 | 2010 | 54 | 33 | 21 | Ind. Games |
| 3 | 2011 | 49 | 33 | 16 | Ind. Games |
| 4 | 2001 | 46 | 35 | 11 | Ind. Games |
| 5 | 2008 | 42 | 26 | 16 | Ind. Games |
| 6 | 2002 | 42 | 27 | 15 | Ind. Games |
| 7 | 2007 | 41 | 25 | 16 | Ind. Games |
| 8 | 2004 | 41 | 28 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 9 | 2005 | 37 | 26 | 11 | Ind. Games |
| 10 | 2003 | 35 | 21 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 11 | 2006 | 30 | 22 | 8 | Ind. Games |
Once again, this is the 10+ strikeout game total among the first 300 games of the year. (That's each of the 30 teams' first 10 games.)
It's interesting to see what a big range in W-L record we see from year to year. In 2011, teams won 67.3% of the time with 10+ strikeouts. The high-water mark came in 2001 with a 76.1 W-L%. In 2009, it was the lowest at just 50.9%.
I guess the variation is due to the small sample sizes...
April 14th, 2011 at 11:05 am
Wait, this is strikeouts recorded by that team's batters? Or pitchers?
April 14th, 2011 at 11:19 am
If you look at each (whole) year 2000 to 2010, the winning % in 10+ SO games ranges from .577 to .637, with an average of .614. I estimate the standard deviation each year to be about .030, so that makes sense. It must be a small sample size issue.
OTOH, the average win % in the first thirty games is a little high, .644, so there could be an early season effect, although the sample size is still relatively small so it's hard to say.
April 14th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Interesting topic, Andy. Following your lead, I looked at the same type of game (restricted to 9 IP or less) for each of the last 5 decades:
W L W% W per 162G
2001-2010 233 124 0.653 105.7
1991-2000 168 106 0.613 99.3
1981-1990 77 56 0.579 93.8
1971-1980 52 27 0.658 106.6
1961-1970 89 59 0.601 97.4
The first thing we notice is that the frequency of these games has more than doubled in the last 20 years, even after adjusting for expansion. But this just reflects a higher overall K rate, which we already new.
The W% spike in the last decade intrigues me, because it's the opposite of what I'd expect. In theory -- or so it seems to me -- when K rates were lower (before the '90s), a 10-K game represented a truly dominant effort, and thus the W% should be higher than the W% for such games in a high-K era, when 10-K games are more routine.
Yet, what we see is, if anything, the opposite. Look at the combined W/162G for the 3 decades before our current era, and the 2 recent decades:
1961-1990: 98.1 W/162G (218-142)
1991-2010: 103.0 W/162G (401-230)
But I probably haven't thought this through far enough. One factor that works in the opposite direction of my assumption is that, in the current era, a ball in play is more likely to be a home run or extra-base hit than it was before 1991; so in that sense, each K in the current era has more run-prevention value.
April 14th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
JA-
"...which we already new." Did we already new it? Or did we old it? HA! Wrong again! :-p
To your last point, I think you are in the right direction. As I read your query, I thought about how Ks being more prominent now, they aren't as devastating to an offense, because they're score runs differently. If teams used to score runs by stringing singles together, a K was a bigger problem because you needed several hits before 3 outs were made. Now with all the HRs and XBH, a K isn't the end of the world.
April 14th, 2011 at 12:57 pm
Bad news, JA. That's three strikes 🙂
April 14th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Maybe it means I'm less uptight? 🙂
April 14th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
(I gnu you would be on the prowl for strike three....)
April 14th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
(Remember that guy a few months ago who entertained us with his Brand New Scientifically Proven Theory of Everything -- OK, it was a player-rating system -- and when someone noted his many typos, his defense was, "I'm typing all of this in by hand" ?
Well, I've been trying to go him one better by typing with my elbows.)
April 14th, 2011 at 3:18 pm
Off topic.
Omar Vizquel had a 3 hit game the other day, 2 weeks before his 44th birthday. What older players have had 3 hit games?
April 14th, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Tangent:
While researching those 10-K games, I noticed this one from 2005 that brought back fond memories of two aces of the last generation, and of more hopeful times for Mets fans.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL200504100.shtml
Mets-Braves, April 10, 2005, 6th game of the year for both clubs, Pedro Martinez vs. John Smoltz. I'll leave you to the link, teasing you with two facts only:
-- somebody struck out 15 without a walk, yet took the loss; and
-- at one point, 8 straight batters for the two teams went down on strikes.
As background ... It was the 2nd start of the year for each pitcher in a new role -- Pedro as ace of the hoping-to-be-resurgent Mets, Smoltz returning to the rotation after 4 years as a closer. Each came in hungry.
Smoltz had started Atlanta's opener against Florida and Josh Beckett, and had been pummeled for 6 runs in 1.2 IP, including a 1st-inning grand slam as the Marlins cruised to a 9-0 win.
Pedro had also started on Opening Day. He gave up a 3-run HR in the 1st to Adam Dunn -- and then struck out 9 of the next 10 batters, the streak interrupted only by a walk. He allowed no hits in the 2nd through 6th, and he departed with a 6-3 lead. They still led by 2 runs in the 9th, but that's when Mets closer Braden Looper [gulp!] entered our sad tale. The bottom of the 9th went by in a blur: Austin Kearns single, Adam Dunn HR to tie it up, Joe Randa HR to win it. And the next thing you know, the Mets were 0-5.
P.S. Non-Mets fans who remember Pedro's rocky last years in Flushing probably don't recall how transcendent he was that first year. In 2005, Pedro led the majors in WHIP at 0.95, led the NL in K/BB ratio at 4.43, and allowed just 1 unearned run all year.
April 14th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Jimbo @9 -- Julio Franco had a 3-hit game at age 48 ... with a HR, a double and 5 RBI.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WAS/WAS200609300.shtml
April 14th, 2011 at 5:39 pm
@4 BSK
As someone who lives in the Pacific Northwest, I watch most of the Mariners game and one HUGE problem they've had the last two years is their strikeouts. Its amazing how much strikeouts hurt an offense when players don't hit for extra bases (or even singles!). It seem like whenever they get someone in scoring position, the next hitter (or the hitter after him, etc.) strikes out. A couple of years ago (2007?), the Mariners were one of the hardest teams to strikeout and actually had a pretty decent offense just because they could move runners over or at least hit a sac fly or RBI-groundout or something!
April 14th, 2011 at 8:45 pm
@11 and what makes that even more impressive is we're not sure he was only 48 😉
April 14th, 2011 at 10:39 pm
Not sure where to comment on this, but Cliff Lee's performance tonight has only been equalled once. 9 IP, 12 K, 99 pitches. Koufax's no-no on 6-4-64 is the only other 9+ inning, 12+ K, <100 pitch game in the pitch count era. Only Dave Stieb on 8-4-89 and Andy Benes on 4-19-92 have had 11 K in 9 innings under 100 pitches. Sadly, Benes didn't get the win because the game went into extra innings.
April 15th, 2011 at 6:03 am
@12: very nice, let us re-open this can of worms (in a friendly sense, of course*smiles*) because the CW, today, is that strikeouts, are just outs, and they don't matter, any more than other outs, and are maybe better, than the "randomness" of putting the ball into play (well, I'll concede, that the thought of a K, is less frightening, than the chance of a GIDP, granted).
Personally, #12, I side with you. Loved how Ryan Howard, stood there, at the end of last year's NLCS, with the bat on his shoulder...... ;p
Friendly discussion!!
.