29 Responses to “Gallardo’s 2 strikeouts in a complete game”

1. Library Dave Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 12:42 pm

   I like how Cliff Lee did it twice in two weeks, for two different teams. Also, how do you throw 73 out of 95 pitches for strikes (July 10 game) and only manage 2 strikeouts?

2. Brett Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 1:06 pm

   Foul balls and batted balls in play count as strikes. I would guess it's a lot of first pitch strike ones. Clearly, he didn't have too many 2 or 3-ball counts either. 😉

3. Jon Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 1:24 pm

   Whenever I think of no strikeouts, I think of the former Oriole, Jeff Ballard. Looked him up and sure enough, both of his shutouts were sub 2K. I don't know which was more impressive, the seven walk, one strikeout performance in 1988 or the no walk, no strikeout shutout in 1989.

   And if I'm not mistaken, I think Ballard is the only pitcher ever to strike out Don Mattingly three times in one game.

4. Andy Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 1:34 pm

   Jon, that fact about Mattingly was the first thing I thought of when you mentioned Ballard.

   Mattingly struck out 3 times in a game just 5 times:

   Rk	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	ROE	GDP	SB	CS	WPA	RE24	aLI	BOP	Pos. Summary
   1	1994-07-19	NYY	OAK	L 2-6	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-0.028	-0.789	.586	3	1B
   2	1993-04-28	NYY	CAL	L 2-3	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-0.141	-0.900	1.460	3	1B
   3	1992-05-10	NYY	OAK	L 2-5	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-0.080	-1.023	.538	2	1B
   4	1989-08-25	NYY	BAL	L 1-3	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-0.129	-1.214	1.233	3	1B
   5	1987-04-13	NYY	CLE	W 11-3	5	5	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-0.097	-0.192	.820	3	1B

   Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
   Generated 4/13/2011.

   Ballard was the first guy to do it, but then Langston did it in 1993.

5. topper009 Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 2:20 pm

   Nowadays since everyone is so paranoid about pitch counts the only way a player is allowed to complete a game is if they have a low pitch count which usually happens with few strikeouts.

6. John Autin Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 2:24 pm

   It's also interesting that Gallardo -- who has averaged over 9 Ks per 9 IP for his career -- has 2 straight games with exactly 2 Ks and at least 5 IP, his first such games since his rookie season. And he has 3 straight starts this year with 4 Ks or less, which he had never done before.

7. John Autin Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 2:44 pm

   @7, That may seem true, but it's not. In 9-inning complete games from 2010-11, the median number of Ks is 6, and the average is 6.3. Out of 122 such games, 27 had at least 9 Ks, while 18 had 3 Ks or less.

   I don't think there is a strong correlation between Ks and pitch count. Strikeouts may average more pitches than a generic at-bat, but on the other hand, all strikeouts are outs. Allowing baserunners runs up a pitch count almost as much as getting a lot of strikeouts.

   Compare two ways of getting 10 outs:
   (1) 10 strikeouts, averaging 5 pitches each.
   (2) 10 non-strikeouts, averaging 3 pitches each.
   (I made up those averages, but they feel reasonable.)

   The 10 strikeouts take 50 pitches, obviously.

   But the 10 non-strikeouts are not likely to take just 30 pitches. To get 10 outs on balls in play, you'll probably have to face about 14 batters. (BABIP is about .300, so the number of batters needed to get 10 outs on balls in play is about 10/0.7, or 14.3.) At 3 pitches apiece, that's 42 pitches. So in this example, the difference between 10 outs on Ks and 10 outs on non-Ks is about 8 pitches.

8. Jon Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 2:54 pm

   Andy,

   Thanks for checking that. There's a certain symmetry about the feat being done by Langston and Ballard. Langston's best season strikeout total was more than Ballard's career total.

9. ctorg Says:
   April 13th, 2011 at 3:28 pm

   I would think that pitchers who pitch to contact, assuming most of that contact doesn't find holes or go over fences, would have lower pitch counts than strikeout pitchers, which would allow them a greater chance of completing games in today's game.

10. Thomas Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 4:58 pm

    Not related...

    Any chance you could do a post on guys who've scored 1000+ runs for one team? How rare is it?

    I mention it because Jimmy Rollins scored his 1000th run last night... obviously all for the Phillies..

11. Johnny Twisto Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 5:28 pm

    I don't think there is a strong correlation between Ks and pitch count.

    I ran a correlation for all pitchers who qualified for the ERA title in 2010. There were 92 pitchers. The correlation between strikeouts and pitches per PA is quite strong, a bit over 0.5. The correlation between strikeouts and pitches per inning is weaker, but still positive (0.13 if using K/PA, 0.23 if using K/9).

    Your estimates of pitches per PA were pretty good. Tango's pitch count estimator is 3.3 * PA + 1.5 * K + 2.2 * BB. All other things being equal, the low-K pitcher will throw fewer pitches. But all other things usually aren't equal, because the low-K pitcher will usually give up more hits.

12. Artie Z Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 6:12 pm

    @10 - there are 103 players (including Rollins) who have scored 1000+ runs for a single team. The others to do it for the Phillies are Schmidt and Ashburn.

    The Yankees have had 11 players score 1000+ while playing for them. The Tigers have had 9. The Pirates and Cubs have had the most in the NL, with 7 players each.

    Only 23 of the 30 teams have had a player score 1000+ for them. The Mets (Strawberry, 662 - though Reyes and Wright should pass him this season), Blue Jays (Delgado, 889), Diamondbacks (Luis Gonzalez, 780), Rays (Crawford, 765), Expos/Nationals (Raines, 947), Rangers (Palmeiro, 958 - though Michael Young is at 924 and could hit 1000 this season), and Marlins (Castillo, 675 - Hanley is closing in) have not had any player score 1000+ for them.

    Aaron, Cobb, and Mays are the only players to score 2000+ runs for a single team. Ruth and Musial are the only others to score 1900 for a single team.

    Donie Bush has the fewest HR (9) for a player who scored 1000+ runs for a single team. Frankie Crosetti checks in with the lowest AVG (.245) and Willie Davis checks in with the lowest OBP (.312 - Rollins is 4th from the bottom at .329). Dom DiMaggio played the fewest games (1399) and Brooks Robinson had the lowest runs per game (0.42). Compare that with Babe Ruth, and this is astounding, who scored 0.94 runs per game (Gehrig, Combs, and Joe D are the 2, 3, and 4 guys in runs per game, which is why the Yankees won a lot of games in the 1920s and 1930s).

13. Artie Z Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 6:32 pm

    Sorry - make it 114 players (including Rollins) as I forgot to change the NL years to 1876-2011. Delahanty is another Phillie who scored 1000+.

    The Pirates now have 9 players as do the Cubs.

    There is a 24th team as Ed McKean scored 1187 runs for the Spiders.

    Everything else I wrote in post 12 stays the same except a few of the guys who played in the 19th century (Tiernan, Delahanty, and Ryan) jump between Ruth and the other 1930s Yankees in the runs per game list.

14. Andy Patton Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 6:54 pm

    anyone else wondering why Piniero wasn't lifted for a reliever? He kept his pitch count down but 10 hits and 6 earned runs isn't normally CG material. although 68/98 pitches for strikes is

15. Thomas Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 8:52 pm

    Wow! Thanks Artie!!!

16. Neil L. Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    Any distinction on the list between road losses for the complete-game pitcher in the AL (where he pitched 8.0 innings) and home wins where he pitched 9? Fewer batters faced on the road.

17. John Autin Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 10:43 pm

    Johnny Twisto -- Thanks for doing that math.

    Clearly, I didn't meant to question the positive correlation between K rate and pitches per PA; I acknowledged that implicitly in my example. Where I questioned the correlation was in "pitch count", by which I meant, the number of pitches needed to complete 8 or 9 innings.

    I looked at the 2010 complete games, and I still don't see a real strong correlation between Ks and pitch count, except at the very high end of the K scale. Surprisingly (?), there was a much smaller difference at the extreme low K levels. The data:

    In 2010, there were 117 nine-inning CGs. All had at least 1 strikeout.
    -- Those with 1, 2 or 3 Ks averaged 105 pitches. (17 games)
    -- Those with 4 or 5 Ks averaged 110 pitches. (26 games)
    -- Those with 6 Ks averaged 111 pitches. (22 games)
    -- Those with 7 or 8 Ks averaged 111 pitches. (26 games)
    -- Those with 9 Ks averaged 111 pitches. (14 games)
    -- Those with 10 or more Ks averaged 118 pitches. (12 games)

    There's a spike at 10 Ks. But the average difference between 1-3 Ks and 9 Ks is 6 pitches, and there's virtually no difference between 4-5 Ks and 9 Ks.

    It's a relatively small sample. Some might also say there's a sort of selection bias against low-K pitchers; a complete study of pitches per inning by starting pitchers, with no regard to the number of innings pitched, would likely find a higher "pitch cost" for high-K pitchers ... as you in fact found. But it's not really a bias in this context, because we're talking about complete games; pitchers with few Ks in a game are inherently less likely to go the distance, because more balls in play lead to more hits and runs.

18. John Autin Says:
    April 13th, 2011 at 11:17 pm

    I looked at 9-inning CGs for the last 10 years (2001-10).
    Here are the average number of pitches for each K level:

    0-1 K -- 104.3 pitches (39 games)
    2 Ks -- 104.6 pitches (85 games)
    3 Ks -- 108.6 pitches (140 games)
    4 Ks -- 109.5 pitches (179 games)
    5 Ks -- 109.0 pitches (186 games)
    6 Ks -- 110.6 pitches (190 games)
    7 Ks -- 112.9 pitches (171 games)
    8 Ks -- 112.9 pitches (131 games)
    9 Ks -- 114.7 pitches (103 games)
    10-11 Ks -- 114.2 pitches (104 games)
    12+ Ks -- 118.9 pitches (60 games)

    This time, we see gaps at both the very low and very high ends.
    But the difference between 3 Ks and 11 Ks is still just 6 pitches.

    My conclusion: In the current era, the pitch count in a complete game reflects very little about the number of strikeouts.

19. John Autin Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 1:33 am

    This is way off on a tangent, but I saw something remarkable tonight:

    Roy Halladay took a shutout and a 3-0 lead into the bottom of the 9th against Washington, but gave up loud hits to Ankiel and Werth to open the inning. LaRoche fanned, but Laynce Nix singled in a run, and Charlie Manuel went out to the mound. Halladay's pitches were up. Contreras was ready to come in. But Manuel left Halladay in. Danny Espinosa singled home another run, putting the tying run on 2nd. Matt Stairs was announced to pinch-hit; Stairs is 10 for 26 against Halladay, with a HR and just 3 Ks. Halladay was around 115 pitches. But Manuel still didn't budge.

    And then Halladay struck out Stairs and Ivan Rodriguez to finish the game.

    Maybe it was just a unique conjunction of circumstances -- the most respected pitcher in the game, a secure manager, a fill-in closer. But I can't remember anything like it in the last 10 years -- a pitcher who'd allowed 4 legitimate hits in the 9th inning, allowed to pursue the last 2 outs with the winning run already on base.

20. Doug Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 2:58 am

    I clicked on Jamie Moyer's player page (#10 on the list) and saw something that inspired me to run a particular PI search. How many pitchers in the modern era have had 20 win seasons aged 38 or older?

    In fact, the answer is only 10 pitchers: Moyer plus Alexander, Spahn, Phil Niekro, Clemens, Mussina, Randy Johnson, Gaylord Perry, Early Wynn, and Spud Chandler. Not sure exactly why, but I would have guessed it was considerably more than just 10.

    Of these 10 pitchers, Warren Spahn, of course, leads the way, with 4 such seasons. But, Jamie Moyer (with 2 seasons) is the only other pitcher to do it more than once. And, Jamie and Mike Mussina are the only pitchers of this bunch whose ONLY 20-win seasons were aged 38 or older.

    Last little tidbit: MIke Mussina is the oldest of only 7 pitchers of any age to win 20 games in his final season.

21. Doug Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 3:45 am

    @19 and Halladay's night

    I agree with you John - not something you see every day (or even every year).

    Another factor (beyond what you mentioned) for why Halladay was left in may be the way closers are used today. Most are strictly one-inning guys and, usually, exactly one inning. In other words, if you bring them in, you do it at the beginning of the 9th or, at worst, after the first guy gets on in the 9th.

    What is usually not done is to bring your closer into a "jam" in the 9th (sometimes, with a few guys like Mariano, this is done in the 8th, but much less often in the 9th). A situation like the Phillies were in tonight seldom occurs unless the closer has gotten himself into the jam, in which case he tends to be left in the game in spite of his apparent ineffectiveness.

    Or, at least, from my observation, that's what seems to be today's apprach to closing games.

22. Dr. Doom Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 8:55 am

    I'm loving all the love Yovani's getting on this site lately! He's awesome, and it's cool that he's finally getting attention outside Milwaukee.

23. Andy Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 9:14 am

    Sean mentioned him (based on one of my blog posts) in the NY Times column last season...

24. jiffy Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 10:56 am

    The most impressive thing about Steve Trachsel's zero-strikeout game is this: Time of Game: 2:27. Usually it felt like it took Trachsel that long to get through a half-inning.

25. Rich Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 4:49 pm

    @9 There are lots of pitchers now that pitch to contact. However, not only do they not last 9 innings, but they don't last long in MLB, period. Hitters are far too talented now to try to hit their bat with a pitch on purpose.
    Fans often long for the days of the complete game, but it's not really babying pitchers so much as offenses are so much more talented now. For a long, long time, there were several easy outs in every lineup (hall of fame players being the exception) at 2nd base, Shortstop, Catcher, sometimes every the center fielder was more known for covering very big outfielders rather than his ability to hit the ball.
    Although I hate the save stat itself, because it makes the manager not use his brain and just throw his closer out there even if the situation doesn't dictate it, but using your bullpen does make sense in theory. Do you want your starter who's been out there 7-8 innings already to pitch the 8th and 9th or do you want some fireballer throwing 95-96-97 who's fresh?

26. Rich Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 4:50 pm

    All that said, it is fun to watch Halladay complete a game; mostly because he makes it look so easy. I actually kinda think it would be less enjoyable if everyone else in the league was completing games as often as him.

27. Dr. Doom Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 7:37 pm

    @23

    I know Gallardo's got love here before. I actually didn't mean the post from this site specifically. The people around here are really intelligent baseball fans. I was also thinking of Poz picking him for the Cy Young, and the preseason buzz about how great the Brewers' rotation is. Then, add two posts in one week on my favorite blog, and it's like he's really arrived! It makes me excited for him.

28. Ghost of Horace Clarke Says:
    April 14th, 2011 at 9:41 pm

    I thought the Roy H CG was pretty crazy and awesome to see at the same time. That was very throwback...and I mean early 80's throwback.

    I would see that many times with the aces of each team doing that (Fernando, Jack Morris, Dave Stieb)....but now only select few, if any get to do this.

29. steve Says:
    April 15th, 2011 at 8:06 am

    "John Austin

    I looked at 9-inning CGs for the last 10 years (2001-10).
    Here are the average number of pitches for each K level:
    0-1 K -- 104.3 pitches (39 games)
    2 Ks -- 104.6 pitches (85 games)
    3 Ks -- 108.6 pitches (140 games)
    4 Ks -- 109.5 pitches (179 games)
    5 Ks -- 109.0 pitches (186 games)
    6 Ks -- 110.6 pitches (190 games)
    7 Ks -- 112.9 pitches (171 games)
    8 Ks -- 112.9 pitches (131 games)
    9 Ks -- 114.7 pitches (103 games)
    10-11 Ks -- 114.2 pitches (104 games)
    12+ Ks -- 118.9 pitches (60 games)
    This time, we see gaps at both the very low and very high ends.
    But the difference between 3 Ks and 11 Ks is still just 6 pitches.
    My conclusion: In the current era, the pitch count in a complete game reflects very little about the number of strikeouts."

    I disagree. The data here says each strikeout costs on average about one more pitch than the out not made by strikeout. Its meaningful, especially in today's game of 100-pitch starts.

    When we consider that pitchers seeking strikeouts tend to reach back for that 'little extra' we could probably conclude that a pitcher throwing 9 innings with 120 pitches with 10 strikeouts has probably exerted much more arm stress than a 2-strikeout 112 pitch effort.

    Roy Halladay, probably the best long starter today, doesn't appear to 'ratchett it up' with two strikes and pitches to contact - despite having strikeout type stuff.