The Orioles’ great start
Posted by Andy on April 6, 2011
In their first 4 games this season, the Orioles haven't allowed more than 1 run in any game:
| Rk | Gm# | Date | Tm | Opp | R | RA | Inn | W-L | Rank | GB | Win | Loss | Save | Time | Attendance | Streak | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | boxscore | BAL | @ | TBR | W | 4 | 1 | 1-0 | 1 | Tied | Guthrie | Price | 2:08 | 34,078 | + | |||
| 2 | 2 | boxscore | BAL | @ | TBR | W | 3 | 1 | 2-0 | 1 | Tied | Accardo | Shields | Gregg | 2:51 | 22,164 | ++ | ||
| 3 | 3 | boxscore | BAL | @ | TBR | W | 5 | 1 | 3-0 | 1 | up 1.0 | Britton | Davis | 2:42 | 17,408 | +++ | |||
| 4 | 4 | boxscore | BAL | DET | W | 5 | 1 | 4-0 | 1 | up 1.0 | Arrieta | Porcello | 2:37 | 46,593 | ++++ |
The Orioles haven't had a lot of streaks like this. Here are all their streaks over the last 50 seasons of at least 4 games with no more than 1 run allowed:
| Rk | Strk Start | End | Games | W | L | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | WP | BK | Opp | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 1974-09-01 | 1974-09-06 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 54.0 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | KCR,BOS,CLE |
| 2 | BAL | 1972-06-11 | 1972-06-17 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 55.0 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | TEX,OAK,MIN |
| 3 | BAL | 1995-09-26 | 1995-10-01 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 45.0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | TOR,DET |
| 4 | BAL | 1992-08-29 | 1992-09-02 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 46.0 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 22 | 0 | 0.39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | SEA,OAK |
| 5 | BAL | 1979-09-02 | 1979-09-07 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 47.0 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 0.77 | 2 | 0 | 1 | MIN,TOR,BOS |
| 6 | BAL | 2011-04-01 | 2011-04-04 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 36.0 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | TBR,DET |
| 7 | BAL | 1973-08-24 | 1973-08-27 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 36.0 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | KCR,TEX |
| 8 | BAL | 1969-06-03 | 1969-06-07 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 38.0 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | OAK,SEP |
| 9 | BAL | 1965-06-13 | 1965-06-17 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 44.0 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 1 | 0 | BOS,NYY |
| 10 | BAL | 1963-05-14 | 1963-05-18 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 36.0 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WSA,CHW |
| 11 | BAL | 1962-06-26 | 1962-06-29 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 36.0 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CHW,DET |
None of the rest of the streaks came at the start of the season, not that that matters much.
The last team I could find that had such a streak at the start of the season was the 2007 Mets. They finished 88-74, which I'm sure most Orioles fans would be ecstatic with in 2011.
April 6th, 2011 at 7:57 am
The Orioles' fall back to Earth will coincide with the weather inappropriateness of Showalter's 'turtleneck/ zipped to his chin jacket' combo-----which he will wear even in August.
I don't know what Elroy Jetson is------but it's obviously NOT a mammal.
April 6th, 2011 at 11:01 am
Regarding #3 on the list...5 game streak, all shutouts...what is the team record for most shutouts in a row?
April 6th, 2011 at 11:03 am
And to add for #3, those were the last 5 games of their season and they were a sub .500 team. Weird.
April 6th, 2011 at 11:22 am
"The Orioles haven't had a lot of streaks like this."
Has anyone? Knowing whether the Orioles are outliers or the norm with the frequency (or lackthereof) of such streaks would be interesting to look at.
April 6th, 2011 at 11:59 am
"The last team I could find that had such a streak at the start of the season was the 2007 Mets. They finished 88-74, which I'm sure most Orioles fans would be ecstatic with in 2011."
-- Not if it came with the exact same ending as befell the Mets....
April 6th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
@4, BSK -- You're not still holding out from subscribing to the Play Index???
April 6th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
The orioles great start is big news.
But then again so was Hilary Clinton's victory in the 2008 New Hampshire Primary.
April 6th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
First, thanks for the post. This is better than the attention the Orioles received last April, and yes, this Oriole fan would be ecstatic with 88-74. I was surprised that the Mets did this so recently (2007). Can a list of all teams with 4+ at the start of a season be generated? That would answer my other curiosity...who was the last team to start a season with five such games? We'll see tonight whether if that second question matters.
@1 & 7...appropriately funny, but I'm enjoying it.
April 6th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
JA-
I just haven't gotten around to it. Busy week at work. I do enjoy the running theme of my ineptitude, though. Of course, once I do get it, that is no guarantee I will be able to use it well enough to answer my own queries for some time.
April 6th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
BSK -- Just for you, here are the teams with the most (and fewest) streaks of at least 4 games allowing 1 run or less, from 1961 to present:
17 - Dodgers
14 - Mets
12 - Orioles
11 - Braves, Yankees, Pirates
10 - Astros
...
1 - Royals, Rays
April 6th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
This is no fluke, The O's had the best won/loss record (AL East) post "In Buck we trust" era. The Bosox on the other hand had the worst won/lost record (AL East) in the same time frame. I am not handing Buck all the glory here, but there seems to be some correlation here that seems to have leaked into this season. It will be interesting to see if the O's can maintain this momentum throughout the season, and if there is history that shows teams with a winning second half one year go on to win their division the following year ?
April 6th, 2011 at 5:37 pm
@ 11, Juan -- There is definitely history showing that a strong 2nd half often foretells improvement the following season.
April 6th, 2011 at 7:47 pm
Thanks, JA. That context helps. I'm not trying to nit pick Andy's work, but it does help frame how we should consider the Oriole's history in this area. Of course, it doesn't really matter, since these streaks had little to do with each other and their distribution amongst the individual franchises is likely completely random (once accounting for franchise age, playing environment, etc.). It would be interesting to see if such streaks were more likely to be put up by teams with stellar pitching (as one would assume) or if there is really no way to predict such a rare occurrence.
April 6th, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Well, reality is intruding on the O's pitching tonight!
What's up in the AL East with the Orioles and Jays leading the division?
April 6th, 2011 at 9:43 pm
@2/3 Dave
I took a look at the 5 game shutout streak. It was against Toronto and Detroit, two teams that were worse than Baltimore that year. The starters were Mussina (twice), Scott Erickson, Kevin Brown and Ben McDonald. Only Mussina was at his "peak" that particular year, but they were all decent pitchers at one point or another.
April 6th, 2011 at 11:41 pm
While I doubt that the Orioles can really contend this year, they do seem to have the makings of a good rotation.
Jeremy Guthrie has a 110 ERA+ in 4 seasons with Baltimore. I wouldn't call him an ace -- he has a low K rate -- but he has good control, and easily could have had 15 wins two or three times with a better lineup behind him.
Brian Matusz, age 24, has a 98 ERA+ in 220 MLB innings. His potential is easy to see; his MLB K and BB rates are promising enough (7.4 K and 3.1 BB per 9 IP), and he was very impressive in his brief minor-league time. He finished last year strong.
Jake Arrieta, 25, had a 2.89 ERA and a K per inning in over 300 minor-league innings. He hasn't shown that K stuff yet in the majors, but has a 95 ERA+ in his first 19 starts. He needs to cut his walks, and has showed progress there, with just 4 walks in his last 4 starts.
Chris Tillman, 23, averaged 8 Ks and 2.3 BB per 9 IP at AAA over the past 2 years, 218 IP. His prior MLB stints weren't good, but he showed his stuff with 6 no-hit innings in his first start this year.
The young guys still have to prove they can do it consistently. But there certainly seems to be a better environment for them guys to get their footing ever since Buck took the reins.
April 7th, 2011 at 11:33 am
JA-
If anything dooms them, it s all the old guys they added. Vlad? Lee? Really? They have young talent, though I think there are legitimate questions about that organizations ability to develop it's talent. I expect them to be far better than last year and likely vault the Blue Jays for 4th.
April 7th, 2011 at 11:56 am
Interesting that 1983 (World Series Champions) is missing from this list.
April 7th, 2011 at 10:53 pm
The Orioles also had a fairly famous four-game streak in which they gave up a total of four runs - 2 in the first game (none after the third inning) and zero in the other three combined.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1966_WS.shtml
April 7th, 2011 at 10:54 pm
Correction to the last post - they gave up a total of TWO runs.