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[A couple of playoff races heated up tonight. I'd hoped to post this at 12:13 a.m., but tennis and the Michigan-Notre Dame thriller kept me away too long....]

-- Rays 6, Red Sox 5 (11): Tampa has cut 5 games off Boston's wild-card lead in a span of 10 games, going 7-3 to Boston's 2-8. After blowing a 2-run lead in the 9th, Tampa won in the 11th on a Desmond Jennings leadoff triple and a 1-out single by Evan Longoria. The gap is now just 4 in the loss column.

• Both hits came off Daniel Bard, in his first game since a 5-run meltdown that cost Boston Wednesday's game in Toronto. Bard did not allow a run in June or July, but has yielded 11 runs in 14.2 IP since August 1.
• Is Kyle Farnsworth reverting to form? From 2000-09, Farnsworth allowed 1.2 HRs per 9 innings, a main reason he never held a closer job for long. He had cut that by more than half over the last 2 years; he'd allowed just 2 HRs in 53 IP this year through September 3. But he's blown his last 2 save tries on HRs, including back-to-backers by Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jacoby Ellsbury to tie tonight's game.
• It's the first time all year that Farnsworth was charged with more than 1 run in a game.
• Boston SP Kyle Weiland allowed 3 runs in 4 IP in his 4th big-league appearance. Sunday's matchup is Jon Lester vs. James Shields; Lester beat Shields on August 16, both allowing just 3 hits; Shields is 1-2 against Boston this year, but shut them out on June 14.

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-- Angels 2, Yanks 1, on the 16th game-ending sac fly this year (3rd by the Halos).

• Angels remain 2.5 GB the Rangers, Yanks 2.5 up on Boston.
• Jered Weaver: 8 IP, 1 R, 11 K, no decision -- his 3rd game this year allowing 1 run or less in 8+ IP without getting a win (all ND). Only Doug Fister has 4 such games (3 ND, 1 L).
• NY's run came on a Jesus Montero HR, a 1-2 pitch in his 1st AB against Weaver. Montero has 3 HRs in 20 ABs.
• Curtis Granderson has gone 4 games without scoring, his longest streak since the opening week, and 11 games without a HR, his longest since June. He still leads the AL in Runs and RBI, but has been passed by Ryan Howard for the MLB RBI lead.

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Back on July 30th, the Phillies acquired Hunter Pence from the Astros. It's not tough to see that he has been a huge help to his new team. In 36 games, he has a 144 OPS+ with 7 HR and 23 RBI. The team has gone a blistering 26-9 (.743) since Pence came over. The team offense averaged 4.35 runs per game before Pence and 5.34 since.

There's no doubt that he's been quite valuable to the team and has helped their offense come closer to matching the excellent performance of their pitching. Pence's contributions could be a major factor if the Phillies have post-season success this year.

They gave up a lot to acquire Pence--3 minors leaguers plus a 4th to be named. You can read about these players here, but the bottom line is that two of them were among the best players in the Phillies' minor-league system. Right away our minds go to players like Jeff Bagwell and John Smoltz, who were similarly dealt as youngsters to a team trying to make a playoff push. Complaints are lodged about a team mortgaging its future by acquiring a guy like Larry Andersen or Doyle Alexander, only to have the team fail to win the World Series and see the minor-leaguer turn into a future All-Star.

However, we need to remember a few key things:

• The examples I gave above of Bagwell and Smoltz are the exceptions. There are many more minor-leaguers dealt at the trading deadline who don't have notable major-league careers. Let's just look at some other deals around the trade deadline in 1990, the year Bagwell was dealt. The Pirates got some bullpen help in Jay Tibbs and gave up Dorn Taylor. The Padres got Tom Lampkin and gave up touted prospect Alex Cole, who ended up not having much of a major-league career. The Braves gave up a vaunted young pitcher Derek Lilliquist for Mark Grant. The Blue Jays got rotation help by acquiring John Candelaria, giving up Nelson Liriano and Pedro Munoz. The Red Sox also got offensive help in Mike Marshall and gave up Paul Williams, Ed Perozo, and Greg Hansell. The Phillies went after Dale Murphy and Tommy Greene and gave up Jim Vatcher and Jeff Parrett. All of these examples show youngsters being traded for established players, but the youngsters didn't pan out into stars. (To be fair, later that year the Pirates acquired Zane Smith from the Expos and gave up, among others, Moises Alou.) The point is, though, that even with established prospects, the odds are still fairly low that these players will be worth all that much in the future.
• Pence is arbitration eligible next year, meaning the Phillies can keep him if they want, or let him go in exchange for a draft pick.
• The Phillies are getting old. Had they not traded those young players, maybe they would come around in 2-3 years and help the big-league team. By then, Jimmy Rollins will be gone. Raul Ibanez will be gone. Chase Utley doesn't appear to be the same player anymore. Ryan Howard...well I think you know how we feel about him. This year is the time for them to try to win another World Series, not hold on to their youngsters, hope they pan out, and try to replace their star players with others. The future might be just as bright for the Phillies or it might be dismal--but clearly this year they have an excellent chance. Going for it with the Pence trade was the right move.
• What if the Red Sox had kept Bagwell? Well starting in 1992 they had Mo Vaughn at first base. They didn't really need Bagwell. If they had him, would they have won one or more championships? Probably not..they were not that close for most of the 1990s. I think it's easy to mistakenly assume that things will turn out really well--that traded minor-league prospects will become All-Stars or that the team will win the World Series if just one or two correct moves are done. The fact of the matter, though, is that few minor-league prospects turn into All-Stars and only one team wins the World Series each year.

I think the Phillies made the right decision and they are my championship favorite in 2011.

September is a time of many debuts, but once in a while a graybeard slips in unnoticed among the hopeful young faces. And so it was that Valentino Martin Pascucci returned to a big-league ballfield Wednesday, for the first time in 7 years, and singled as a pinch-hitter for the Mets against Atlanta's Eric O'Flaherty.

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With his grand slam on Thursday, Paul Konerko continued his late-career renaissance. At age 35, he now has 29 HRs, a .314 BA, .400 OBP and 231 Times On Base (TOB = Hits + BB + HBP).

But he's scored just 64 Runs.

Konerko's ratio of 3.61 TOB per Run is one of the worst ever in a season of at least 25 HRs: Read the rest of this entry »

[Just enough time for a quick hit-and-run; if I missed something big, please fill in the gaps with your comments!]

-- In Toronto, Daniel Bard of the Red Sox walked Eric Thames and Jose Bautista with the bases loaded in the 8th inning, tying the game and costing Tim Wakefield his latest shot at career win #200. Bard was averaging just 2.1 BB/9 and had hit just 1 batter before tonight, but the Jays built the tying rally on a HBP and 3 walks wrapped around one single. Then, Edwin Encarnacion greeted Matt Albers with a 3-run double, and Bard wound up charged with 5 runs, more than in any of his prior 183 games.

• Frankie Francisco allowed 2 runs in the 9th, but pinch-runner Mike Aviles was thrown out trying to steal 2nd by Jose Molina, who came in for the 9th after J.P. Arencibia was lifted for a pinch-runner.

-- The 2011 MLB walk rate:

• With the bases empty: 7.38% of PAs.
• With the bases loaded: 6.85% of PAs.

This year is not unusual, but I remain shocked by how slim that margin is.

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Games of Wednesday, 9/7/11:

-- Oakland's Guillermo Moscoso no-hit the Royals for 7.2 innings before a single by rookie catcher Salvador Perez. Moscoso retired the first 17 batters before walking Alcides Escobar (I kid you not), the only other baserunner in 8 innings. Will he get to try for the shutout? Moscoso is at 106 pitches; he's never pitched beyond 8 IP or 110 pitches in the majors.

• There still have been just 2 no-hitters thrown against KC in their 43-year history, by Jon Lester in 2008 and Nolan Ryan in 1973.

-- Name that hurler: 6+ IP, 7 hits, 4 runs, 4 walks, 3 wild pitches, 3 SB in 3 tries, 1 HR, 108 pitches, leadoff man reached safely in 6 of 7 innings. (The answer is here.)

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Reader fajita writes in with the following question--anybody know the answer?

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18771085

so you probably have seen the video of this...

first pitch of the at bat, pennington (A's) foul tips a ball straight back, and the ball lodges into the catcher's (josh bard) facemask.

my question is what would have happened if it was a 2-strike count on pennington?  would that have counted as a foul-tip catch and been a strike out?

(Andy here again. If you want a good reason not to like Jorge Posada, look at this bonehead play. The argument afterwards makes it twice as bad. The rules on this one are very clear.)

David Ortiz has been one of my favorite targets in the past, so it's only fair to say it now: he's having the best season ever by a designated hitter at least 35 years old. Aside from being quite consistent this year, his OPS+ ranks tops among DH's who qualified for the batting title in their Age 35 season or later:

Is WAR the new RBI? | Its About The Money

I'm not going to speak to the larger discussion around this article because the author loses a lot of credibility/weight (at least for me) when he admits in the comments, "I slightly misrepresent how the stat works here, in favor of making the statement more hyperbolic." That and the article is being discussed elsewhere, but one of the comments points out a particular issue that annoys me.

Here is the Comment by Hank

I'll post this again....

Carl Crawford career LF at the Trop 22.5 UZR/150
Carl Crawford career LF everywhere else: 7.5 UZR/150

This is over 8 years (so each sample size is the rough equivalent of 4 full years).

1 year OF UZR samples are bad, but even the general "3 years is what you need" can also have issue as UZR can have systematic biases.... input bias, park effects and subjective components (armR, errR for outfielders) which don't even out over a 3 year period.

I like the concept of WAR and the issue I have with it is bad input data (the defensive stats in both WAR models and the baserunning values now put into the fWAR). Until these variables can be measured better (FieldFX?), any difference in WAR between players based on these components should be taken with a huge boulder of salt.

OR ANOTHER OF A SIMILAR VEIN

THANK YOU for this post.

UZR may be good for multiple years, but it is a flawed single season stat. Saying Carl Crawford one year in TB went from being an elite LF to being a terrible one the next year makes no sense.

What is the issue here exactly? Why would a difference in home and road UZR be evidence of a flaw in UZR? Or why would the fact that Crawford's UZR is much worse this year mean there is a problem with uzr? Some players hit a lot better at home than on the road? Why wouldn't fielders see the same effect.

For some reason when defensive numbers are inconsistent across splits or years folks gnash their teeth and blame the faulty defensive metrics, but Carl Crawford can go from an OPS+ of 135 to 82 in a year and people won't question the offensive numbers.

Why do we expect greater consistency on defense than on offense? That doesn't seem to me to be a valid expectation.