Night game recap for Wednesday, 9/7/11
Posted by John Autin on September 7, 2011
[Just enough time for a quick hit-and-run; if I missed something big, please fill in the gaps with your comments!]
-- In Toronto, Daniel Bard of the Red Sox walked Eric Thames and Jose Bautista with the bases loaded in the 8th inning, tying the game and costing Tim Wakefield his latest shot at career win #200. Bard was averaging just 2.1 BB/9 and had hit just 1 batter before tonight, but the Jays built the tying rally on a HBP and 3 walks wrapped around one single. Then, Edwin Encarnacion greeted Matt Albers with a 3-run double, and Bard wound up charged with 5 runs, more than in any of his prior 183 games.
- Frankie Francisco allowed 2 runs in the 9th, but pinch-runner Mike Aviles was thrown out trying to steal 2nd by Jose Molina, who came in for the 9th after J.P. Arencibia was lifted for a pinch-runner.
-- The 2011 MLB walk rate:
- With the bases empty: 7.38% of PAs.
- With the bases loaded: 6.85% of PAs.
This year is not unusual, but I remain shocked by how slim that margin is.
-- In St. Louis, Chris Carpenter shut out the Brewers on 4 hits in a 2-0 win -- exactly 2 years since his last shutout, a 1-hitter, also against Milwaukee.
- The Brewers still lead by 8 games in the loss column, with 19 left for the Cards.
-- The Giants lost, but Brett Pill hit his 2nd HR in his 2nd career game. Others to homer in each of their first 2 games, since 1919:
| Strk Start | End | Games | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SO | BB | SB | CS | Tm | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Gimenez | 2009-06-04 | 2009-06-07 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .375 | .444 | 1.125 | 1.569 | CLE |
| John Bowker | 2008-04-12 | 2008-04-13 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .571 | 1.667 | 2.238 | SFG |
| Elijah Dukes | 2007-04-02 | 2007-04-05 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .444 | 1.143 | 1.587 | TBD |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 2006-09-02 | 2006-09-03 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 | 1.250 | CLE |
| Kenji Johjima | 2006-04-03 | 2006-04-04 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .375 | .444 | 1.125 | 1.569 | SEA |
| Josh Bard | 2002-08-23 | 2002-08-24 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | 1.500 | 2.071 | CLE |
| Keith McDonald | 2000-07-04 | 2000-07-06 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .600 | 2.000 | 2.600 | STL |
| Todd Helton | 1997-08-02 | 1997-08-03 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .556 | 1.250 | 1.806 | COL |
| Shane Andrews | 1995-04-27 | 1995-04-28 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | 1.667 | 2.238 | MON |
| Ricky Jordan | 1988-07-17 | 1988-07-18 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .600 | .714 | 1.800 | 2.514 | PHI |
| Sam Horn | 1987-07-25 | 1987-07-26 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .444 | .500 | 1.111 | 1.611 | BOS |
| Alvin Davis | 1984-04-11 | 1984-04-13 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .400 | .625 | 1.600 | 2.225 | SEA |
| Tim Laudner | 1981-08-28 | 1981-08-29 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .571 | .625 | 1.429 | 2.054 | MIN |
| Joe Lefebvre | 1980-05-22 | 1980-05-23 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .600 | .667 | 1.800 | 2.467 | NYY |
| Roberto Pena | 1965-04-12 | 1965-04-13 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .444 | .500 | 1.222 | 1.722 | CHC |
| Dick Stuart | 1958-07-10 | 1958-07-11 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .400 | 1.000 | 1.400 | PIT |
| Joe Cunningham | 1954-06-30 | 1954-07-01 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .556 | 1.625 | 2.181 | STL |
| Paul Gillespie | 1942-09-11 | 1942-09-13 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .429 | .500 | 1.286 | 1.786 | CHC |
| Earl Averill | 1929-04-16 | 1929-04-17 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .444 | .444 | 1.111 | 1.556 | CLE |
-- In Denver, Kevin Millwood connected off Joe Saunders for his first HR since 2002, but left in the 6th trailing 4-3 to Arizona.
- Millwood had gone exactly 200 ABs since that last HR, which was also in Coors Field.
- Saunders had never before given up a HR or any XBH to a pitcher, and had held them to a .101 BA (8 for 79).
-- In Philadelphia, the Phils scored twice in the last 2 innings off the vaunted Atlanta bullpen and moved 12 ahead of the Braves in the loss column.
- The Phillies are 91-48, with 23 games left. I'm feeling about 105 wins.
- Chase Utley left the game in the 8th, 2 innings after he was hit (in the head?) by a pitch from Eric O'Flaherty. Best wishes for a speedy recovery, Chase.
September 7th, 2011 at 11:20 pm
The game notes on Mr Utley read:
"PHILLIES SECOND BASEMAN CHASE UTLEY LEFT THE GAME IN THE BOTTOM OF THE EIGHTH INNING DUE TO AN INJURED HEAD."
Interesting wording. I hope he is okay. They say that it is possible concussion after being hit in the head by O'Flathery.
September 8th, 2011 at 1:09 am
Coolstandings.com has the Phils at 105.3 wins. Should they reach the 106 plateau it would not only be a Phillies franchise record, but also be the most by an NL team since 1998 when the braves also won 106. Should they get to 107 (they would need to go 16-7), it would be the most an NL team since the '86 mets who won 108.
September 8th, 2011 at 1:27 am
@ MLB walk rate:
I guess its pretty safe to say walks can happen with about same likely-hood regardless of situations.
September 8th, 2011 at 2:36 am
Poor Brett Pill. Following in the GIANT footsteps of John Bowker.
September 8th, 2011 at 3:20 am
Josh Bard (on the homering in his first 2 games list) is on pace to have his 10th straight year (all of his career) of at least one homer every year, but never in double digits. Craig Counsell has the longest such active streak at 12 years.
Brad Ausmus did this every year of his career, until his 17-year streak was broken is his homerless final season last year. Similarly, Tony Taylor had an 18-year streak starting with his first season in 1958, and only ending with a homerless final season in 1976.
The longest such steak by a pitcher: 17 years by Warren Spahn (1948-64).
The longest career where a player did this in every season appears to be Gary Templeton, at 16 years. Ty Cobb homered every year of his career (24 seasons), but twice was in double-digits at 12 (1921 and 1925). He also had one season leading the AL in homers, with 9 in 1909.
September 8th, 2011 at 3:33 am
On the flip-side of the single-digit HR streak, Hank Aaron at 23 years has both the longest streak of double-digit HR years, and the longest career with every season meeting this standard. Carl Yastrzemski would have matched Aaron save for one single-digit HR season (7 homers in 1981, in only 91 games).
September 8th, 2011 at 3:41 am
There's another Jimbo here now?
September 8th, 2011 at 6:57 am
Wakefield has had some pretty bad luck in his seemingly interminable quest for #200. Since he won #199 on July 24th, he's now made 7 starts and 1 6-inning relief appearance. In each start he's allowed 3 or 4 earned runs, and has only 3 losses and and 4 no-decisions to show for it. With the Red Sox being such a high-scoring team, you'd think he'd squeeze out at least one win there.
September 8th, 2011 at 7:24 am
Mets won 1-0, led by a strong performance by knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Over the past seven seasons (2005-2011), the Mets have played 25 games that ended with a 1-0 score, and have won 19 and lost only 6 of those games. That's a .760 winning percentage, MLB's best winning percentage in such games over that time period. Next in that category over the same period is the Yankees, who have a .714 winning percentage in 1-0 games over the 2005-2011 period. Then come the Philies, Red Sox and Rangers, all of whom have .667 winning percentages in 1-0 games over the 2005-2011 period.
September 8th, 2011 at 8:04 am
Your comment about the walk rate is interesting. If you look at the different bases occupied scenarios, you will see that when the bases are loaded, the OBP is the lowest. The OBP is lower when putting a player on will advance the lead runner or the bases are empty. If you have an unoccupied base to put the batter, both the OBP and walk rates are higher, even if you correct the walk rates for IBB.
September 8th, 2011 at 8:13 am
With Manny Acosta and Josh Stinson each having recorded a save for the Mets over the last two games, the Mets now have had seven different guys record at least one save for them this season. That's the most different guys with a save for the Mets in a season since 1982. The Cardinals lead the majors this year with 8 different pitchers having notched at least one save. The Giants and Dodgers match the Mets with seven different pitchers with at least one save this season. The all-time record, according to the Play Index, is 12 different pitchers with at least one save, held jointly by the 1973 Texas Rangers, and the 1959 and 1961 Kansas City Athletics. There is only one pitcher, Bud Daley, who saved at least one game for each of those 1959 and 1961 Athletics teams.
September 8th, 2011 at 8:41 am
Although not a huge milestone, in the Phillies-Braves clash Raul Ibanez hit his 250th career home run.
September 8th, 2011 at 10:19 am
@12 - that's only because we're jaded; it seems like everyone and his twin hit 20 taters a year lately. To do it over the long haul is still pretty impressive, and I'm glad to see it mentioned.
Only 203 guys (including Ibañez) have 250 career homers. Up next in a big tie for 199th are Tony Armas, Tony Clark, Robin Yount, and old-timer Cy Williams, who would have had more if he hadn't played eight years in the deadball era. And one homer above that are Bret Boone, Bobby Murcer, and Joe Torre. Not bad company for Raul Ibañez. It makes me happy for him.
September 8th, 2011 at 10:26 am
@12, Christopher -- Congrats to Raul.
I note that, through 1991, 250 HRs would have made him #98 on the all-time HR list. Twenty years later, it's only good for #203 on the all-time list -- and #85 for most HRs hit within the past 20 years.
Within the past 20 years alone, 51 players have hit at least 300 HRs, 19 hit 400 HRs, 8 hit 500 HRs, and 3 hit 600 HRs.
September 8th, 2011 at 10:39 am
For discussion purposes, here are the 2011 MLB splits for bases empty and bases loaded:
BA* -- .251 with bases empty, same with bases loaded.
OBP -- .309 with bases empty, .310 with bases loaded.
SLG* -- .396 with bases empty, .387 with bases loaded.
HR% -- 2.6% of PAs with bases empty, 2.2% with bases loaded.
2B% -- 4.7% of PAs with bases empty, 4.8% with bases loaded.
3B% -- 0.5% of PAs with bases empty, 0.6% with bases loaded.
* BA and SLG calculated with sac flies counted as ABs, as they really should be.
September 8th, 2011 at 10:43 am
Ibanez is really putting that Surname-Initial-of-I home run crown out of reach, ain't he?
(The first time a friend introduced that bar-game trivia, Pete Incaviglia held it, with 206. Brandon Inge, at age 34, is only at 138. The Izturis brothers, with 47 homers combined, are not a threat.)
September 8th, 2011 at 10:53 am
@Birtelcom, re: Parnell -- SNY ran a poll last night asking whether the Mets should keep Parnell as closer for the rest of the year. I didn't stick around for the results, but I think they definitely should, though perhaps with some finessing so as to maximize his chance of success,
I can't help but think of Heath Bell, who struggled for 3 years with the Mets -- posting an unacceptable (but perhaps unlucky) H/9 and ERA, despite good K and BB numbers -- then blossomed as soon as we dumped him for a couple of nobodies who never did nuthin'.
September 8th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Re #17: Yes, John, I think the sabermetric community subset of Mets fans looks at Parnell's fielding-independent pitching numbers and flashes back to Heath Bell, when we were pushing the idea that Bell's numbers suggested he was a lot better than his ERA, and some prominent meltdowns, suggested. Bobby is going to need to put together a few good saves in a row, though, to get the mass of fans on his side. The famous Irish sabermetrician William Butler Yeats wrote a poem called "Parnell's Funeral" in which he regretted how "popular rage...dragged this quarry down." Bobby better watch out.
September 8th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
old-timer Cy Williams, who would have had more if he hadn't played eight years in the deadball era
For many years, he had the most HR of any player not in the HOF.
September 8th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
I was going to post something about Parnell the other night. A couple times I've seen him, he looked unhittable. I couldn't believe his numbers were so mediocre.
September 8th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
In regards to Brett Pill, another late call up, for the '98 Yanks, Shane Spencer - homered in 7 of 14 Sept games. He had a 1.568 Sept OPS+.
He never really panned out.
He and another ex-Yankee (whom I can't recall) were released by the Mets during spring training for a bar fight and excessive drinking just a few years after that magical Sept.
Lets hope Pill has a better fate and less hubris.
September 8th, 2011 at 3:25 pm
Shane Spencer . . . and another ex-Yankee (whom I can't recall) were released by the Mets . . . for a bar fight and excessive drinking just a few years after Spencer's big 1998.
I think the other ex-Yankee was Karim García.
September 8th, 2011 at 3:50 pm
@21, if he pans out do they move baby giraffe to the outfield?
September 8th, 2011 at 4:37 pm
@23, Anon -- Slim chance of Bret Pill panning out. He's 26 and just getting his first taste of the majors. And while he hit .312 and slugged .530 in the minors this year, it was in the PCL; he wasn't anywhere near the leaderboards:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=2b849127
Besides ... the Giants still have Huff signed for another guaranteed year at $10 million, right? 🙂
September 8th, 2011 at 6:25 pm
@24:
That doesn't mean much from the Giants these days 🙂 and especially after his awful season. I cannot believe he did so well last year (although not complaining).
September 8th, 2011 at 8:02 pm
@24... Pill played 57 games at 2b in AAA this year, so a little more work there and he could end up a good utility guy for them. He's 26, but it's not like he had to repeat multiple steps until he reached AAA. His big improvement this year gets less weight because of the offensive explosion in the PCL, but his numbers aren't helped by a huge spike in BABIP. It could be a legitimate improvement for him. "Panning out" is a highly subjective term... I'm not sure what that means for Pill exactly, but there's a chance he kicks around the majors for a few years.
September 8th, 2011 at 8:52 pm
@26, James -- Fair enough. I did notice that Pill doesn't strike out much, especially for a power hitter. So he's got a base to build on.
September 8th, 2011 at 9:29 pm
I wonder how narrow the walk gap gets when you factor out IBB.
Or if you factor out situations when a walk does not advance the lead runner.
September 9th, 2011 at 2:10 am
The thing about Pill is he's genuinely a likable kid. Huge grin wherever he goes. Epitomizes the "Just happy to be here" attitude. Should have seen the Vets climbing over each other to congratulate him after his first shot on Tuesday. Fun to root for a kid like that.
Yep, age and numbers don't seem to support much of an MLB career for Pill. Small a chance as it is, sometimes players figure things out a little later in their career.
September 9th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Happy Birthday, Brett Pill!
He's in pretty good company:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/birthdays.cgi?month=9&day=9
September 9th, 2011 at 12:33 pm
@28, Brett (not Pill) -- I'm not following your question. The data I've presented compare the walk rates with nobody on base and with the bases loaded. In each case, IBBs are virtually nonexistent.
September 9th, 2011 at 7:39 pm
@28
If you compare the 8 different bases occupied scenarios, you will see that when the bases are loaded, the walk rate is low, comparable to when bases are empty.
They are also low when first base is the only base occupied and when first and 2nd are occupied. Walks are low when the lead runner can advance.
They are higher when there is an open base behind the runner: runners on 2 or 3 or 1,3 (low % of walks) or 2,3 even after factoring out the IBB's before calculating the %.
Pitcher will change where they place the pitch in different parts of the strike zone based the situation. No one wants to walk the first batter in an inning and nobody wants to walk in a run.
September 10th, 2011 at 10:44 am
@32, Charles: "when the bases are loaded, the walk rate is low, comparable to when bases are empty."
-- Well, it's lower ... by 0.53% of PAs, a difference of 7.7% between the two rates. My point is, that's not nearly as much lower as I'd expect, given the vastly different costs of a walk in those 2 situations.