7+ Games In A Post-Season With WPA>=.05

Posted by Steve Lombardi on December 17, 2010

There's two things that jump out at me when I look at this list.

Link to query used to derive the list below.

Rk	Player	Year	#Matching		PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GDP
1	Alex Rodriguez	2009	10	Ind. Games	47	37	16	4	0	6	17	7	4	.432	.553	1.027	1.580	0	0	1	3	0
2	Barry Bonds	2002	10	Ind. Games	44	23	12	2	1	6	12	21	3	.522	.750	1.478	2.228	0	0	9	0	0
3	Bernie Williams	1996	9	Ind. Games	43	36	17	3	0	5	12	7	6	.472	.558	.972	1.530	0	0	1	0	0
4	David Ortiz	2004	9	Ind. Games	47	36	17	3	1	5	19	11	7	.472	.596	1.028	1.624	0	0	3	0	0
5	Troy Glaus	2002	9	Ind. Games	39	35	17	1	1	7	12	4	4	.486	.538	1.171	1.710	0	0	0	0	1
6	Albert Pujols	2006	8	Ind. Games	34	28	14	3	0	3	6	5	3	.500	.588	.929	1.517	0	0	2	1	1
7	Albert Pujols	2004	8	Ind. Games	37	32	20	4	0	6	14	5	1	.625	.676	1.313	1.988	0	0	0	0	1
8	Hideki Matsui	2003	8	Ind. Games	36	32	13	3	0	2	7	3	3	.406	.472	.688	1.160	0	0	0	1	0
9	Rickey Henderson	1989	8	Ind. Games	39	30	14	1	3	3	8	8	2	.467	.590	1.000	1.590	0	0	0	1	0
10	Lance Berkman	2005	8	Ind. Games	37	25	9	3	0	2	13	11	7	.360	.541	.720	1.261	0	1	3	0	0
11	Carlos Beltran	2004	8	Ind. Games	36	30	17	2	0	8	14	5	4	.567	.639	1.433	2.072	0	0	0	1	0
12	Sandy Alomar	1997	8	Ind. Games	35	34	17	1	0	5	19	1	2	.500	.514	.971	1.485	0	0	0	0	2
13	Larry Walker	2004	7	Ind. Games	33	28	14	4	1	4	8	4	6	.500	.576	1.143	1.719	0	0	0	1	0
14	B.J. Upton	2008	7	Ind. Games	34	28	13	1	0	5	13	5	6	.464	.529	1.036	1.565	0	1	1	0	1
15	Scott Spiezio	2002	7	Ind. Games	31	27	13	3	1	3	16	4	0	.481	.548	1.000	1.548	0	0	2	0	1
16	Benito Santiago	2002	7	Ind. Games	33	28	13	2	0	2	14	4	6	.464	.515	.750	1.265	0	1	1	0	1
17	Tim Salmon	2002	7	Ind. Games	33	28	13	2	0	3	10	4	6	.464	.545	.857	1.403	0	0	1	1	0
18	Edgar Renteria	2004	7	Ind. Games	30	25	12	4	0	0	7	4	5	.480	.567	.640	1.207	0	0	0	1	0
19	Manny Ramirez	2007	7	Ind. Games	33	22	11	2	0	3	14	11	5	.500	.667	1.000	1.667	0	0	2	0	1
20	Tony Pena	1987	7	Ind. Games	24	22	12	1	1	0	1	2	2	.545	.583	.682	1.265	0	0	0	0	0
21	Greg Olson	1991	7	Ind. Games	30	23	9	2	0	1	5	7	2	.391	.533	.609	1.142	0	0	0	0	0
22	Paul O'Neill	1998	7	Ind. Games	33	30	11	2	0	2	4	3	3	.367	.424	.633	1.058	0	0	0	0	1
23	Fred McGriff	1995	7	Ind. Games	33	29	14	4	0	4	9	4	4	.483	.545	1.034	1.580	0	0	1	0	0
24	Hideki Matsui	2009	7	Ind. Games	26	19	11	2	0	3	12	7	3	.579	.692	1.158	1.850	0	0	0	0	0
25	Kenny Lofton	2002	7	Ind. Games	34	31	16	1	1	1	5	2	1	.516	.559	.710	1.269	0	0	0	1	0
26	Mark Lemke	1996	7	Ind. Games	30	27	12	3	0	1	7	3	3	.444	.500	.667	1.167	0	0	0	0	1
27	Chuck Knoblauch	1991	7	Ind. Games	32	25	11	2	0	0	5	5	2	.440	.516	.520	1.036	1	1	0	0	0
28	Chipper Jones	1996	7	Ind. Games	30	23	13	3	0	1	8	6	2	.565	.633	.826	1.459	0	1	0	0	0
29	Charles Johnson	1997	7	Ind. Games	30	25	11	2	0	2	8	3	7	.440	.517	.760	1.277	1	0	0	1	0
30	Ryan Howard	2009	7	Ind. Games	31	25	9	3	1	2	13	5	6	.360	.452	.800	1.252	0	1	1	0	0
31	Tony Gwynn	1998	7	Ind. Games	28	28	12	2	0	1	6	0	3	.429	.429	.607	1.036	0	0	0	0	0
32	Cecil Fielder	1996	7	Ind. Games	30	24	11	1	0	3	12	6	6	.458	.567	.875	1.442	0	0	1	0	0
33	Lenny Dykstra	1993	7	Ind. Games	35	26	10	1	0	5	9	9	4	.385	.543	1.000	1.543	0	0	1	0	0
34	Tom Brunansky	1987	7	Ind. Games	28	24	10	4	0	2	10	4	3	.417	.500	.833	1.333	0	0	0	0	0
35	Rich Aurilia	2002	7	Ind. Games	32	25	12	3	0	3	12	2	3	.480	.517	.960	1.477	3	1	0	1	0
36	Willie Aikens	1980	7	Ind. Games	30	26	12	0	1	4	10	4	8	.462	.533	1.000	1.533	0	0	0	0	0
37	Benny Agbayani	2000	7	Ind. Games	30	25	9	3	0	1	4	5	5	.360	.467	.600	1.067	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/17/2010.

The first thing is seeing A-Rod, Bonds, Big Papi and Glaus at the top end of the list - just because they've been linked to PEDs in the past. But, the second thing is that 1987 post-season for Tony Pena. For a guy who wasn't a great batter, in general; and, for a guy who hit like a pitcher that season, man, he had one heckuva post-season. I guess it got lost because it came in a losing effort?

And, if I had to have a third thing, it would be Bernie Williams in 1996. Was that all Creatine shakes at work?

This entry was posted on Friday, December 17th, 2010 at 4:16 pm and is filed under Game Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

23 Responses to “7+ Games In A Post-Season With WPA>=.05”

Chris Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
For me it's Bonds. 23 AB and 21 BB. That's not just respect. It's fear.
Chris Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
No Mr. November?
J-Doug Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
Why the heck would you turn a neat finding like this into a debate about PEDs? This seems reckless and unfair.
Steve Lombardi Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 5:16 pm
J-Doug. Sorry. That's not my intent. It's pretty much a fact that PED use has come up in the past for A-Rod, Papi, Bonds and Glaus. That's why it came to my head when I saw their names on the top of the list. I never meant to make this a platform for a debate.
Genis Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
I know RBI's are overrated, but Tony Pena had just 1 RBI and 5 runs in those 7 games.

And wow. Carlos Beltran is quite a bit removed from those magical 2004 playoffs. I remember that epic series against the Cardinals. Amazing he hit those 8 homeruns in the playoffs and never even made it to the World Series. Is that a record?
Genis Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 5:53 pm
Ya, just looked it up. Barry Bonds in 2002 and Carlos Beltran in 2004 are the only players to ever hit 8 homeruns in 1 postseason, but Bonds hit 4 in the WS. 4 in the NLDS and 4 in the NLCS for Beltran.

B.J. Upton (2008), Jayson Werth (2009), and Troy Glaus (2002) all hit 7 in one postseason. Upton actually hit all 7 of his pre-WS while Werth hit 2 and Glaus hit 3 in the WS.
Frank Clingenpeel Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 6:08 pm
Is there ANY top performance list that Pujols has yet to make?
Jimbo Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 6:52 pm
Pujols the only player on there twice I think...

Interesting that Derek Jeter never made the list.

Also, no pitchers made the list? I thought maybe Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling might've done it. Maybe 7 games was just one too many.
Jeff James Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 9:56 pm
@8

Yank fans cry about ARod "choking" & Jeter being "clutch" 😐
fordham'13 Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 10:04 pm
Kinda surprised Cody Ross didn't make it.
John Autin Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
I haven't given much thought to WPA before. Can someone please address:

B-R says, "It is highly dependent on the context in which a player played." What is meant by "context" here? Does it include historical context (league R/G) and/or the detailed context of exactly who is pitching for both teams? Or is it only about generic in-game context, without regard to the time or the identity of the players involved?

In other words, does a leadoff HR always have the same WPA value? Or does it count more in 1908 than in 1996; more against a great pitcher than a lousy one; more in support of a great pitcher than a lousy one, etc.?

I'm not implying that WPA is worthless if it doesn't adjust for all those things; obviously, it would be colossally hard to make those adjustments. I'm just trying to grasp exactly what is being measured.

And if anyone can point me to a more detailed primer on WPA, I would be grateful.
John Autin Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
The other thing I'm missing is a sense of scale and frequency -- just how valuable and unusual is a 0.05 WPA?
John Autin Says:
December 17th, 2010 at 11:35 pm
Trying to get acquainted with the scale and frequency, I ran Steve's search at some higher WPA levels:

>= 0.20 WPA: 4 games, by 7 players, most recently Lance Berkman, 2005 NLDS (1), NLCS (1), WS (2). The last 3 of these were losses for the Astros. Others: Albert Pujols & David Ortiz 2004, Troy Glaus 2002, Junior Griffey & Fred McGriff 1995, and Gene Tenace 1972.

>= 0.30 WPA: 3 games, Duke Snider, 1952 WS. In game 1, Snider's 2-run HR in the 6th broke a 1-1 tie en route to a 4-2 win. In game 5, he had 3 of the top 5 plays in WPA: 2-out, 2-run HR in the 5th for 4-0 lead; 2-out tying single in the 7th; and GW double in the 11th. In game 6, which could have clinched the Series for the Dodgers, Snider broke a scoreless tie with a HR in the 6th, then homered again in the 8th to get the Dodgers within a run, but the Yankees held on to win and then took game 7 for the championship.

>= 0.50 WPA, also >= 0.60 WPA: 2 games, Alex Rodriguez, 2004, ALDS games 2 and 4. (Looking at game 4 brought home to me that WPA is blind to whether a run actually scores. In a tie game, A-Rod led off the 9th with a double, which ranks as the 2nd-biggest play of the game, even though he was stranded. In the 11th, he hit a 1-out double, stole 3rd and scored the ultimate GW run on a wild pitch.)

>= 0.87 WPA, 1 game, Kirk Gibson, 1988 WS game 1.
J-Doug Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Steve: Just realized my comment came off way harsher than I intended. I didn't mean to accuse you of anything specifically, but I was just expecting a different take on the data when I first read the list.
John Autin Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 12:29 am
And for the flip side:

-- Worst batting WPA in a postseason game, -0.563, Felix Millan, 1973 WS game 2. In 12 innings, Millan went 0 for 6 with an IBB, but the Mets won anyway, 10-7. It was just an ordinary oh-fer until the 10th, when Millan came up with 1 out and men on the corners and hit a fly to shallow LF; Bud Harrelson tagged and tried to score, but Joe Rudi threw him out. (As I understand it, everything that happened on the play gets "charged" to the batter's account, which in this sort of instance seems quite unfair.) In the 12th, Millan came up in the exact same situation and popped out to 1B, but Willie Mays singled in the go-ahead run and 3 more followed on a pair of errors by Mike Andrews.

-- No player has more than 2 games in a postseason series with a WPA <= -0.23 ... except, that is, for Morgan Ensberg of Houston in 2005, who had 4 such games. Ensberg (who had a terrific regular season and placed 4th in the MVP vote) went 0-6 with a walk in the marathon NLDS clincher, settled by Chris Burke's HR in the 18th. Ensberg's other 3 bad games came in the WS, swept by the White Sox; in 15 PAs, he had a single, a walk and 6 Ks. (He did hit an early go-ahead HR in the other game....)

-- Most career postseason games with WPA <= -0.20 is 7, by Jorge Posada. Opportunity is a big factor, of course, but Posada has also had more than his share of postseason struggles, including a .219 WS career BA with 2 HRs in 29 games. (No offense intended, Jorgie.)

-- Most career postseason games with WPA<= -0.10 is 20, by 2 players. One is no surprise, since he's played more postseason games than anyone in MLB history: Yes, it's Cap'n Jetes, and it's really just the result of volume; his overall postseason stats (in 147 games) are in line with his regular-season. The other was Jeter's occasional teammate and much more noted postseason flopper, David Justice, who in 112 postseason games hit just .229 and slugged .382 compared to his regular-season marks of .279 and .500.
vincent Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 2:46 am
is it me, or are these batting averages way off?
Jimbo Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 3:34 am
I believe the batting averages are for only the games included in the sample. Thus they would all be much higher than what the player had for that particular post season. I assume that's where you're having issues.
Soundbounder Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 6:37 am
Bernie Williams did steroids???

Says who?
Steve Lombardi Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 10:01 am
Soundbounder - at this point, no one. I do recall, in the late '90's, that he mentioned using creatine, but, I could be wrong on that. And, yes, as far as I know, that is not a banned PED.
Johnny Twisto Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 10:14 am
John A., you may have figured this all out by now: WPA is adjusted for the generic run-scoring context, park and league, but not for the specific parties involved in the play. Yes, everything gets credited to the batter and pitcher. In that sense WPA is great for measuring the change in game-state, but it could be improved on in how we apportion the credit. +0.05 WPA in a game is not particularly great or notable, but to do it in many games in a row is. Even Albert Pujols had a negative WPA in almost half his games this season.
TheGoof Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
Matsui is on there twice, too. No surprise, though. The man is amazing in big situations.
Rick Says:
December 18th, 2010 at 9:11 pm
Good to see Sandy Alomar Jr. in there for his monster 1997 post-season. Sadly, the only Indians representative.
Naveed Says:
December 19th, 2010 at 11:36 am
There are a ton of examples there from 2002: Salmon, Spiezio and Glaus for the Angels, and Aurilia, Lofton, Santiago and Bonds for the Giants.

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