Winning Game 1 of a post-season series
Posted by Andy on October 8, 2010
How often to teams that win Game 1 of a post-season series go on to win the series?
Easy to figure that out.
For example, here is a list of all the Game 1 winners from each post-season series in the last 5 seasons (2005-2009).
Going down that list of 35 games (7 each season) we see only a few examples of a team winning Game 1 and going on to lose the series:
2009 World Series, 2008 ALCS, 2006 ALDS NYY-DET, 2005 NLCS, 2005 ALDS NYY-LAA
So that's 5 times in 5 years, or 5 times out of 35 series (14%) that the team that loses the first game goes on to win.
I would imagine that going back further yields similar results.
October 8th, 2010 at 7:57 am
I'll always remember the 1995 playoffs between the New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees won the first two games and then the Mariners won three in a row.
Because of this series I've always been a believer that even if a team wins the first playoff game...it doesn't matter.
I'm sure it's frustrating for fans to lose that first game because you had your best pitcher going for you but there are always unlikely heroes in the playoffs and your number three and four starting pitchers can have miracle games.
October 8th, 2010 at 8:13 am
Jeff, sure you can't mean that it truly "doesn't matter". Surely you would agree that losing that first game significantly hurts the chances of winning a series, especially a 5-game series? Clearly it doesn't eliminate chances of winning entirely, though.
October 8th, 2010 at 8:21 am
How about the 2006 NLCS? I sadly recall the Mets winning Game 1 but losing the series.
October 8th, 2010 at 9:07 am
I think the 30 of 35 (86% of teams winning game 1 AND the series) result surprises Yankee fans:
That is because going back to 1995, the teams that win game 1 (of a series invoving the Yanks) are 14 of 29 (only 48%). And that includes 6 out of 6 for the 1998-1999 World Series team which was one of the best teams ever to play baseball. So if you take away those 2 seasons (just for fun) the result is 8 of 23 (34%).
This actually is (kind of) supported in the data listed in the original post as 3 of the 5 series (win G1 and lose series variety) involved the Yankees.
Breakdown:
Yanks win game 1 and win seires - 11 times
Yanks lose game 1 and lose series - 3 times
Yanks win game 1 and lose series - 6 times
Yanks lose game 1 and win series - 9 times
October 8th, 2010 at 9:15 am
Great data, tmckelv. I think those results show why the Yankees of the last 15 years carry such a mystique. It's one thing when a team ace, such as Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum, goes out and throws a fantastic game. That's what fans expect. But when series take wild turns in later games, the big plays often come from less expected places--hello Scott Brosius, Paul O'Neill, Jose Vizcaino, Luis Sojo, Chad Curtis, etc, and people remember these "lesser" guys.
Check this out--list of highest single-game post-season WPA by a Yankee since 1995:
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/76U4q
October 8th, 2010 at 9:38 am
Aaron @$^&ing Boone!!!!
Speaking of Yankees, WPA, and the playoffs, do people still hold that debunked belief that ARod's a choker?
October 8th, 2010 at 9:41 am
Tough to think that after last year. A-rod has 2 games from 2009 that rank in the top 50 for the Yankees since 1995, and that include a LOT of player games.
October 8th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Regarding @5,
Yeah, the Yanks definitely don't make the WS last year without A-Rod's games against the Twins (#1 and #4 on your provided list). It is interesting (but not surprising) that he has 3 of the top 4, but then is absent for the next 40 or so.
October 8th, 2010 at 9:49 am
Now this is kind of interesting, I put together a list of every time the game 1 winner lost in division series play:
95 ALDS SEA-NYY
96 ALDS NYY-TEX
97 ALDS CLE-NYY
98 ALDS CLE-BOS
99 ALDS BOS-CLE
99 NLDS ATL-HOU
00 ALDS NYY-OAK
00 NLDS NYM-SFG
01 ALDS SEA-CLE
01 ALDS NYY-OAK
02 ALDS ANA-NYY
03 ALDS NYY-MIN
03 ALDS BOS-OAK
03 NLDS FLA-SFG
04 ALDS NYY-MIN
05 ALDS LAA-NYY
06 ALDS DET-NYY
That's 17 times in 60 series or 28.3% of the time. Oddly, of those 17 times only thrice was it in the NL. In the AL, it happened at least once from 95-06, but hasn't happened in the three years since. Not including, the past three seasons (so 95-06), it happened in 17 of 48 series or 35.4% of the time.
October 8th, 2010 at 9:59 am
@9,
Right it goes along with what I mentioned above regarding the Yankees postseason series. The Yankees' ALDS series is on there EVERY year from 2000 through 2006.
October 8th, 2010 at 10:07 am
That 200-2006 was so ridiculous that it got to the point where I was happy the Yanks lost game 1 to the Indians in the 2007 ALDS. That did not work out too well though. Just ask Joba how the gnats tasted.
October 8th, 2010 at 10:42 am
Three of the Yanks' top four playoff performances since 1995 are A-Rod against the Twins? OK, I guess it won't bother me if they boo him now. Andy, Tmckelv, great stuff.
Oh, and don't forget, those '95 Mariners included Tino and Nelson...