Wade Boggs – HOF if he didn’t play for Boston?
Posted by Andy on October 13, 2008
Over on my 88 Topps Cards blog (on the Brook Jacoby card for some odd reason) a reader postulated that if Wade Boggs hadn't played for the Red Sox, he wouldn't have been a HOFer. My initial reaction was extreme incredulity, but let's look a bit into the numbers.
Taking a quick first swing, let's look at Boggs' career home/road splits:
I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split +-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+ Home 1242 1193 5415 4590 849 1623 362 29 70 532 757 97 387 13 12 43 60 119 11 17 .354 .443 .491 .934 .372 118 Home Away 1197 1131 5325 4590 664 1387 216 32 48 481 655 83 358 10 17 53 71 117 13 18 .302 .387 .395 .781 .316 82 Away
Wowsers, right away the case is looking pretty bad for Boggs. His batting average was more than 50 points higher at home, as was his OBP. His OPS+ split is 118 at home, pretty darn good, and 82 on the road, not all that good. Interesting that he was right at 100 for his career.
But those splits include his years with the Yankees and (then) Devil Rays. Let's look at his home/road splits during just his years with Boston, 1982-1992.
First home:I Year G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Year +-+-------+---------+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+ 1982 55 45 207 180 34 64 12 1 4 30 21 3 12 0 2 4 2 5 1 0 .356 .415 .500 .915 .357 116 1982 1983 80 80 356 302 53 120 34 3 2 37 53 1 18 0 1 0 5 6 1 2 .397 .487 .550 1.037 .418 123 1983 1984 79 78 371 318 58 112 17 3 5 27 48 4 22 0 4 1 7 6 1 1 .352 .436 .472 .908 .366 121 1984 1985 80 80 367 311 60 130 24 2 6 39 51 2 38 3 1 1 6 10 1 1 .418 .503 .566 1.069 .463 130 1985 1986 73 73 331 277 53 99 29 0 3 36 51 6 24 0 2 1 4 6 0 0 .357 .456 .495 .951 .382 102 1986 1987 75 75 339 282 60 116 28 3 10 50 53 12 24 0 1 3 2 6 1 1 .411 .500 .638 1.138 .422 117 1987 1988 79 79 367 285 74 109 29 3 4 35 76 11 18 3 0 3 5 12 0 2 .382 .512 .547 1.060 .395 119 1988 1989 78 78 366 300 62 113 37 4 2 27 57 8 21 4 0 5 5 11 1 4 .377 .475 .547 1.022 .394 132 1989 1990 80 80 363 309 51 111 30 1 3 32 52 10 42 0 0 2 3 7 0 0 .359 .449 .492 .941 .406 134 1990 1991 69 66 301 252 50 98 28 2 6 32 47 15 12 0 0 2 3 8 0 1 .389 .482 .587 1.069 .390 142 1991 1992 75 71 306 251 39 61 13 3 4 26 48 12 12 3 0 4 2 4 1 2 .243 .366 .367 .733 .238 106 1992
That's 823 games with 1133 hits in 3067 AB (.369 BA.)Now his away:
I Year G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Year +-+-------+---------+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+ 1982 49 38 174 158 17 54 2 0 1 14 14 1 9 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 .342 .395 .373 .769 .358 82 1982 1983 73 73 329 280 47 90 10 4 3 36 39 1 18 1 2 7 4 9 2 1 .321 .398 .418 .815 .327 76 1983 1984 79 79 355 307 51 91 14 1 1 28 41 2 22 0 4 3 2 7 2 1 .296 .376 .358 .734 .314 78 1984 1985 81 80 391 342 47 110 18 1 2 39 45 3 23 1 2 1 6 10 1 0 .322 .401 .398 .799 .340 72 1985 1986 76 75 362 303 54 108 18 2 5 35 54 8 20 0 2 3 6 5 0 4 .356 .450 .479 .929 .367 98 1986 1987 72 71 328 269 48 84 12 3 14 39 52 7 24 2 0 5 0 7 0 2 .312 .421 .535 .956 .297 82 1987 1988 76 75 352 299 54 105 16 3 1 23 49 7 16 0 0 4 3 11 2 1 .351 .438 .435 .872 .364 81 1988 1989 78 77 376 321 51 92 14 3 1 27 50 11 30 3 0 2 9 8 1 2 .287 .386 .358 .744 .312 70 1989 1990 75 75 350 310 38 76 14 4 3 31 35 9 26 1 0 4 4 7 0 0 .245 .320 .345 .665 .256 65 1990 1991 75 74 340 294 43 83 14 0 2 19 42 10 20 0 0 4 8 8 1 1 .282 .368 .350 .718 .293 64 1991 1992 68 64 292 263 23 72 9 1 3 24 26 7 19 1 0 2 5 6 0 1 .274 .339 .350 .689 .284 94 1992
That's 802 games with 965 hits in 3146 AB (.307 BA.)Certainly Boggs was no slouch on the road, although he was primarily a singles hitter away from Fenway, as the differential between his road SLG and road BA is much smaller than the differential between his home SLG and home BA.
Let's do a quick back-of-the envelope calculation. If we apply Boggs' road BA to his home ABs, he would have had 940 hits instead of 1133, a loss of 193. That takes him down to 2817 hits in his career, and if he had a career SLG under .400 like his road numbers, he probably would not have made the HOF.
But, if we click the "neutralize stats" link on his page, he moves up to 3092 career hits, although his batting average is mainly unchanged.
It's tough to say what would have happened to Boggs if he hadn't played for Boston. There's no doubting that he was an excellent hitter, and I'm sure he would have tailored his game to wherever his home park was.
October 13th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
You took the words right out of my mouth: "I’m sure he would have tailored his game to wherever his home park was." He did prove in 1994 that he could do well at home. As a Yankee he hit .359 at home, .324 away (and only .167 at Fenway that year). Also, let's not forget he won two gold gloves, and they were post-Red Sox.
How does Boggs compare, by the way, to other thirdbasemen of his era? Gaetti? HoJo? Can you compare Boggs' away stats with their overall stats?
October 13th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Hold on. You are misinterpreting the numbers and misrepresenting Boggs. His career OPS+ is 130, not 100. The tOPS+ numbers are a comparison to the player himself, not to the league. If you take Boggs's career as the baseline, _then_ his road OPS+ is "only" 82. His road OPS is still over 100 if compared to the rest of the league.
Furthermore, it is never fair to simply look at a player's road stats and assume that is his true talent. 1st, all players in general perform worse on the road. 2nd, that denies Boggs any games at all in Fenway, which especially early in his career was a great hitter's park. 3rd, Fenway is such a unique park that I think many Red Sox players have more extreme home/road splits than is typical. As you acknowledge, Boggs was probably able to tailor his swing to take advantage of Fenway, but this may have cost him a bit on the road.
The guy was as good as anyone on a very good '94 Yankees team -- when he was 36 years old and supposedly over the hill. I have no doubt Boggs's greatness would have been evident on most teams in most eras of baseball history.
October 13th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Ah, thanks for pointing out my mistake with the tOPS+. The rest of your arguments are also valid, although I didn't mean to say that he wasn't a great player both at home and on the road. I'm just wondering out loud if he would have made the HOF.
As for most players hitting better at home than the road, that's certainly true, but let's look at a couple of Boggs' comps. Tony Gwynn hit .343/.393/.466 at home and .334/.384/.451 on the road. That's a much smaller disparity than Boggs had. We can attribute a fair amount of that to the fact that Jack Murphy Stadium was much closer to neutral than Fenway Park. However I don't think that alone explains why Gwynn was so much more consistent.
Kirby Puckett, however, looks a lot more like Boggs. Home .344/.388/.521 and away .291/.331/.430. If I recall correctly, the Metrodome was a favorable place for hitters in the 80s and 90s.
The guy Boggs is most similar to is Rod Carew. Home .333/.401/.434 and away .323/.385/.425, playing mostly in the Metrodome like Puckett.
And when I applied Boggs' road average to replace his home performance, I said right up front that was back-of-the-envelope.
October 14th, 2008 at 6:26 am
Carew played mostly at Metropolitan Stadium (832 games), and only a handful at the Metrodome (24). 😉