26 Responses to “King Felix & His Court”

1. Tom Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 9:24 am

   I hope Ben Sheets will be given the Cy Young Award retroactively after King Felix wins it. I suppose you could make a argument for Randy Johnson that year, too, but he had too many victories for my taste.

2. jiffy Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 10:14 am

   #1, I'm sure you're being sarcastic and Sheets shouldn't have won it, but to get only 1 point in the voting and be:

   #3 ERA, #2 WHIP, #7 H/9IP, #2 BB/9, #4 K/9, 5 complete games, and lead the league in K/BB means he had a pretty darn good year.

3. John Q Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 10:36 am

   The problem with era/era+ is it assumes all the fielders are the same. Case in point Jon Matlack for the '74 Mets. He had a 149 era+ but he pitching for a terrible defensive team. They had Hahn, Staub, Kranepool, Schneck, C. Jones, Theodore in their outfield, which may be one of the worst defensive outfields of the '70's. Then in retrospect it looks like Felix Millan wasn't a very good fielder. Garrett was slightly below average at third, Milner was slightly below average at first. It seems like they only had two good defensive players, Harrelson and Grote.

   Matlack led the Majors in WAR with an (8.6) and actually had a LOSING record, 13-15. I think that's the only case of a pitcher leading both leagues in WAR and not having a winning record. It's probably one of the few 8+ WAR seasons to result in a losing record..(possible new blog post).

   One thing left out the Felix Hernandez Cy Young debate is that the Mariners defense is actually pretty good.

4. Hartvig Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 10:52 am

   That list includes some really good pitchers & I have to admit that I was more than a little surprised to see Matlack's name on it. When I looked him up on B-R I realized I was almost certainly still stuck on wins and losses at that age. He was a lot better than I ever gave him credit for.

   But best of all, I found out his middle name is Trumpbour.

5. Leatherman Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 11:00 am

   I was surprised to see that Nolan Ryan's 8-16 1987 season was not on the list. Although he led the league in both ERA and ERA+, his ERA+ was only 142.

6. John Autin Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 12:35 pm

   For everyone who still thinks that wins are the best measure of pitcher performance, on the grounds that pitchers "pitch to the score":

   Here's my favorite quote of the year so far -- Cole Hamels talking about how he has coped with the low run support he's gotten. It should be required reading for every Cy Young Award voter:

   "I've discovered that in baseball, a pitcher can only get a sign, accept the sign and throw the pitch. It's one of those things where my full focus and full job is to make a pitch, whether we have 100 runs or no runs. I've been able to simplify everything. What inning it is, what the score is, where we are in the standings … that doesn't matter."

   http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=5595444

   Thank you, Cole!

7. LJF Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 1:14 pm

   Anyone else surprised to see Lefty Grove on this list? True, it was only his second year, but he led the league in H/9, K/9, completed 20 of 33 starts and the A's were 16 games over .500. I wonder of Connie Mack had a quick hook for his day. The A's were 6th in the AL in CG's that year.

8. Malcolm Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 1:49 pm

   Felix Hernandez should be the hands-down choice to win this year's AL Cy Young Award. Unfortunately, I doubt he wins it because of the 12-12 record and playing for a losing team.

   Although I have been following Cole Hamels all season, I had not read the quote that John posted. I think that these words not only hit the nail on the head when it comes to starting pitchers having hard luck, but also are indicative of how valuable Cole's season has been for the Phillies. Cole's mental toughness used to be questioned because he would cruise for 5 or so innings and then get hit up a little bit and break down completely, allowing 4 or 5 run innings and ultimately getting pulled. He has seemed a lot more focused this year, and even when he gives up a run or two in an inning he bears down and makes his pitches to get out of jams. And of course, the run support comes around eventually--all of a sudden COle has gone 5-0 in his last 5 decisions and been one of the main reasons for the Phillies' surge to the top of the East.

   Obviously, it's too late for the Mariners to start making a push towards contention, but if it was still August and their offense was halfway potent the kind of season King Felix has had in terms of wins and losses could make a dramatic turnaround. At any rate, if you ask me to pick one AL starter to head my rotation in 2011, he's the guy.

9. Zack Says:
   September 24th, 2010 at 2:55 pm

   @12 - "Felix Hernandez should be the hands-down choice.... I doubt he wins it.... "

   No kidding, and I sure hope you're wrong, and the more of the "expert" commentary I hear suggests we might get our wish (Felix wins). In line with this, I've heard quite of bit of the same experts dissing CC, explaining why CC would be their 3rd or 4th place pick for Cy Young, in spite of the W/L record.

   My hope is enhanced by last year's Cy voting: 31 combined wins for Greinke and Lincecum in 2009, the fewest combined wins for any Cy duo (when both winners were starters), and a good sign that the voters are looking beyond W/L.

   Felix has two more starts. If he can pick up a 14-12 record, I think he's got it. Voters can vote for that.

   As I type this, Kurkjian is on Satellite saying the same thing. I'm so smart.

10. Neil L Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 3:26 pm

    @9 (last paragraph)
    Zack.... and modest too! (lol)
    @8
    Malcolm, I agree with your conclusion about Hernandez winning this year's Cy Young.

    Your comment about his prospects of an award being hurt by playing for a losing team hits a nerve with me because of the MVP voting as well as Cy Young. I've never been able to sort out whether team success factors into league MVP voting or not.

    If so, Cabrera will be hurt by playing for the Tigers this year.

11. Kelly Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 4:11 pm

    Hernandez will finish much better than Sheets' 8th place finish because his year has been so much more dominant (Sheets was only 3rd in ERA, and 2nd in K's). Also hopefully the electorate is better informed today about statistics. All that said -- and at the risk of sounding like Andy's Phillies prediction if I'm wrong -- I don't think Hernandez has a chance in hell of winning the CYA this year. The voters are still sportswriters and they still largely value wins. I think the winner will be Price (because he's got an ERA < 3 and a much better W-L record than Hernandez) or Sabathia (because he won 20 and plays for New York).

12. Tmckelv Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 4:36 pm

    @11,

    Can we please retire the "plays for New York" as a reason why a pitcher might win the Cy Young.

    Yankees have 1 Cy Young winner since 1978 when Guidry went 25-3 in one of the best pitcher's seasons of all-time:

    2001 - Roger Clemens wins due to his 20-3 record. He may not have deserved the award due to his other stats or whatever (I did not research), but the reason he won it was because it was "Roger Clemens going for #7"...NOT because he was on the Yankees. Especially considering he had won 6 Cy Youngs previously other different teams.

13. Artie Z Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 4:55 pm

    All the metrics point to the Mariners having a good defensive squad, but they've allowed the most unearned runs in the AL (I think - did a quick eyeball test check). Not that means they have a bad defense, it's just a statement of fact. Hernandez has allowed 17 UER this year, which seems like a lot - I have no idea if it is or not, it just seems like a lot. It's probably not a lot in a historic context (small gloves, bad playing surfaces, etc. likely led to a lot more UER in the long long ago), but it does seem like a lot in today's game. If David Price had given up 17 UER this year (and his total runs allowed stayed the same) his ERA would be 2.43. If Jered Weaver had given up 17 UER his ERA would be 2.56.

    Looking at the list it seems like their are two types of pitchers - guys who received little run support (Clemens in 2005, likely Lincecum in 2009, probably Appier in 1992 as he gave up 59 total runs in 30 games and pitched about 7 innings a game) and guys who lost a decent chunk of games due to giving up unearned runs (Matlack, Grove, and McDowell - Hernandez has given up the 4th most UER).

    I don't know what any of this means - it's likely that Hernandez is faring the worst in terms of wins because he both lacks run support AND has given up a lot of unearned runs.

14. John Autin Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 5:27 pm

    @13
    Artie, good point about the high number of unearned runs. And he allowed 15 UER last year. At first I suspected home-town scoring -- but actually, the bulk of the unearned runs have come on the road.

    But in any case, his ERA and ERA+ are just 2 of many metrics showing him as the best pitcher in the AL this year. And even if you counted all his runs as ER, Hernandez would still have a 2.94 ERA, 0.32 better than C.C. Sabathia.

15. Richard Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 5:39 pm

    @ 7
    I'm glad you brought that up for two reasons

    #1 Holy crap, look at the pitching on that 1926 A's team. 140!!! ERA+ AS A TEAM
    That could explain Connie Mack having a quick hook that year. Every single pitcher on his team was good.

    #2 Lefty Grove finished 8th in MVP voting that year behind only one pitcher, Herb Pennock, who pitched for the pennant winning Yankees. So, if some voters in 1926 could realize that maybe wins aren't an all important stat, why can't some of them now?

16. Fireworks Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 6:49 pm

    I don't think Felix is the hands-down winner of anything. You can't say that the voters should ignore traditional methods of evaluating pitchers for the Cy Young and then ignore the fact that Felix plays in a very pitcher-friendly park (unlike Sabathia, Lester, or Buchholz), that Felix has a pretty good defense behind him, and that his ERA was almost 4 the first two months of the season and that while he leads the league in ERA now, he has accomplished that at a time where there has been zero pressure on him to perform. M's have been out of it forever.

    It's not like last year with Greinke, when he finished a full 2 wins ahead in WAR over any pitcher in the AL and 1 win ahead of any player.

    Hernandez most likely will finish at most .5 WAR ahead of any pitcher. That's hardly a gap that can't be rationalized away by other factors like the fact that Pettitte's rehab start for Trenton has been more meaningful than any of Felix's start since June.

    I want Sabathia to win but I think last night clinched it for Price.

17. Lateralus Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 7:23 pm

    Hernandez is 2nd in Road ERA at 2.55 and 123 innings pitched.....so I think he has proven himself outside Safeco Field. Lester leads with 2.49.......Felix Hernandez has the another 2 shots at becoming the 1st pitcher to get 30 quality starts in 8 years......another impressive number. Sabathia and Price have 3.50 and 3.68 eras on the road, respectively. And speaking of pitching in Fenway and Yankee Stadium.....how about 3 Starts, 3-0, 24 1/3 innings pitched and an ERA of 0.37 AGAINST 2 of the best Offenses in baseball.......yeah that's Felix Hernandez too......doesn't matter who or where, the guy is the best by far this season. Take a look at where Sabathia is getting a lot of his wins.....against poor offenses....Seattle, Baltimore, etc. Somewhat counter intuitive to think Felix has had a tougher schedule of opponents, but look at the breakdown in gamelogs.

18. Neil L Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 8:27 pm

    @16
    Fireworks, with respect, CYA voters don't use the same metrics as we do. Re-read your first paragraph.

    Most of the stat-geeks can follow what you are saying, but are you expecting the people with the ballots to put that much thought into it?

    @17
    Pardon, Lateralus, but could you clarify what you are saying about Hernandez vs. Sabithia vs Price? Are you saying that Felix is more deserving than C.C. or Price. If so, I agree!

19. paul Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 9:14 pm

    #3 John Q

    4 pitchers in MLB history have had WAR greater than or equal to 8.5 and a losing record. Matlack 74 has some company:

    Player WAR W-L% Year Tm SHO W L IP ERA ERA+
    Phil Niekro 8.5 .444 1977 ATL 2 16 20 330.1 4.03 111
    Ed Walsh 8.7 .474 1910 CHW 7 18 20 369.2 1.27 189
    Jon Matlack 8.6 .464 1974 NYM 7 13 15 265.1 2.41 149
    Dave Roberts 8.5 .452 1971 SDP 2 14 17 269.2 2.10 157

    It may be interesting that three of these occurrences were in the 1970s but I have no explanation.

20. Malcolm Says:
    September 24th, 2010 at 11:32 pm

    Poor Ed Walsh. 1.27 ERA, 189 ERA+ and he loses 20 games...

21. Tom Says:
    September 25th, 2010 at 1:13 am

    I think King Felix is going to be crowned. He is the trendy pick.
    I don't know how many CYA voters are devoted readers of this blog, but I think many baseball writers between ages 30-40 are followers of Joe Posnanski. Joe is a terrific writer and baseball analyst and likes numbers.
    Last year, I believe Joe had a lot of influence with the voters. He made a strong case for Zack Greinke, who was a stud in every category (including winning percentage) except total victories.
    He made the argument that wins are unimportant, and I think that point will be driven home in the CYA voting this year.
    Personally, I think wins are important (though not the only category) in this award.
    First of all because that has been a standard for this award.
    Secondly, the award is named after the player who had the most career wins.
    Obviously other stats come in to play, but I don't think wins should be ignored completely.

22. JeffW Says:
    September 25th, 2010 at 2:20 am

    Felix has surrendered five hits and two runs in his last two starts. Total.

    His ERA since May 7th is 1.87. Since Aug. 5th, it's flat-out ridiculous: 0.94.

    He's only given up more than one earned run in one of his last nine starts!

    In his 12 losses, the Mariners have scored a total of 14 runs.

23. Tmckelv Says:
    September 25th, 2010 at 6:53 am

    @3 & @19,

    Dave Roberts is the only comparable season to Matlack. Niekro and Walsh picked up a lot of their WAR based on many IP (I think).

    Looking at at Niekro and Walsh's stat lines above make it hard to believe they are separated by only 0.2 in WAR.

    Player WAR W-L% Year Tm SHO W L IP ERA ERA+
    Phil Niekro 8.5 .444 1977 ATL 2 16 20 330.1 4.03 111
    Ed Walsh 8.7 .474 1910 CHW 7 18 20 369.2 1.27 189

    Niekro must have been a terrific fielder and Walsh must have grounded into A LOT of double plays. 🙂

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25. Zack Says:
    September 25th, 2010 at 9:36 am

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26. Neil L Says:
    September 25th, 2010 at 1:59 pm

    Gently, gently, Zack. You mean you get those e-mails too?
    @21
    Tom, I don't like the word trendy for Hernandez's CYA candidacy because it implies a lack of legitimacy.

    The other idea in your post I find really interesting.... in the baseball "universe", who really influences the HOF ballot-holders. Is it Joe Posnanski? Sean Forman? Chris Berman? (sorry, couldn't resist that last shot)