40+ starts in a season
Posted by Andy on July 21, 2008
I just got curious about the most recent seasons in which a guy started 40 or more games. Here they are:
Cnt Player Year GS Age Tm Lg G CG SHO GF W L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS Pit Str ----+-----------------+----+--+---+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+--+-----+--+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+--+----+----+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---- 1 Charlie Hough 1987 40 39 TEX AL 40 13 0 0 18 13 .581 0 285.1 238 159 120 124 223 3.79 119 36 1231 1069 42 5 1 19 5 14 12 36 13 5 9 12 .223 .311 .372 .683 80 2 Jim Clancy 1982 40 26 TOR AL 40 11 3 0 16 14 .533 0 266.2 251 122 110 77 139 3.71 121 26 1100 1012 43 7 1 2 5 4 24 10 10 1 0 6 .248 .301 .381 .682 79 3 Phil Niekro 1979 44 40 ATL NL 44 23 1 0 21 20 .512 0 342 311 160 129 113 208 3.39 120 41 1436 1290 50 6 8 11 14 7 25 40 11 2 4 18 .241 .306 .384 .690 88 4 Phil Niekro 1978 42 39 ATL NL 44 22 4 1 19 18 .514 1 334.1 295 129 107 102 248 2.88 142 16 1389 1254 42 10 5 13 13 6 13 34 12 4 3 11 .235 .298 .323 .621 71 5 Dennis Leonard 1978 40 27 KCR AL 40 20 4 0 21 17 .553 0 294.2 283 125 109 78 183 3.33 116 27 1218 1114 62 5 7 9 11 6 26 18 11 1 0 12 .254 .307 .391 .698 92 6 Mike Flanagan 1978 40 26 BAL AL 40 17 2 0 19 15 .559 0 281.1 271 128 126 87 167 4.03 87 22 1160 1053 52 4 2 3 10 5 30 11 11 5 1 8 .257 .314 .377 .691 99 7 Steve Rogers 1977 40 27 MON NL 40 17 4 0 17 16 .515 0 301.2 272 122 104 81 206 3.10 122 16 1235 1121 44 10 3 5 18 9 23 24 13 4 1 14 .243 .294 .343 .637 77 8 Phil Niekro 1977 43 38 ATL NL 44 20 2 1 16 20 .444 0 330.1 315 166 148 164 262 4.03 111 26 1428 1236 44 9 12 8 11 8 26 47 32 4 3 17 .255 .344 .368 .712 88 9 Randy Jones 1976 40 26 SDP NL 40 25 5 0 22 14 .611 0 315.1 274 109 96 50 93 2.74 120 15 1251 1173 40 3 9 4 15 9 34 15 3 2 1 0 .234 .265 .311 .576 74 10 Jim Palmer 1976 40 30 BAL AL 40 23 6 0 22 13 .629 0 315 255 101 88 84 159 2.51 130 20 1256 1140 35 8 5 8 10 14 20 33 15 3 0 5 .224 .278 .321 .599 80 11 Wilbur Wood 1975 43 33 CHW AL 43 14 2 0 16 20 .444 0 291.1 309 148 133 92 140 4.11 95 26 1245 1136 53 10 5 5 6 6 24 31 17 11 2 6 .272 .328 .405 .733 105 12 Andy Messersmith 1975 40 29 LAD NL 42 19 7 2 19 14 .576 1 321.2 244 92 82 96 213 2.29 149 22 1276 1148 29 3 2 5 20 7 24 14 7 2 0 8 .213 .275 .301 .576 67 13 Jim Kaat 1975 41 36 CHW AL 43 12 1 1 20 14 .588 0 303.2 321 121 105 77 142 3.11 125 20 1279 1172 51 6 0 9 11 10 31 4 12 2 2 0 .274 .321 .379 .700 95 14 Jim Bibby 1974 41 29 TEX AL 41 11 5 0 19 19 .500 0 264 255 146 139 113 149 4.74 75 25 1134 1001 52 9 4 9 5 6 21 24 10 0 1 11 .255 .334 .400 .734 113 15 Vida Blue 1974 40 24 OAK AL 40 12 1 0 17 15 .531 0 282.1 246 118 102 98 174 3.25 103 17 1159 1040 28 6 7 1 7 12 35 12 8 0 0 9 .237 .300 .324 .624 84 16 Joe Coleman 1974 41 27 DET AL 41 11 2 0 14 12 .538 0 285.2 272 160 137 158 177 4.32 87 30 1262 1070 47 6 13 12 16 6 26 46 9 5 0 13 .254 .355 .393 .748 113 17 Catfish Hunter 1974 41 28 OAK AL 41 23 6 0 25 12 .676 0 318.1 268 97 88 46 143 2.49 134 25 1240 1171 43 7 2 4 9 10 15 14 19 1 0 1 .229 .258 .342 .600 76 18 Fergie Jenkins 1974 41 31 TEX AL 41 29 6 0 25 12 .676 0 328.1 286 117 103 45 225 2.82 126 27 1305 1231 56 2 3 8 9 12 17 18 10 0 2 4 .232 .262 .347 .609 76 19 Mickey Lolich 1974 41 33 DET AL 41 27 3 0 16 21 .432 0 308 310 155 142 78 202 4.15 91 38 1263 1155 48 10 11 3 17 10 24 16 32 5 0 10 .268 .314 .426 .740 109 20 Nolan Ryan 1974 41 27 CAL AL 42 26 3 1 22 16 .579 0 332.2 221 127 107 202 367 2.89 118 18 1392 1165 38 6 3 9 12 4 24 28 21 3 0 9 .190 .313 .279 .592 76 21 Don Sutton 1974 40 29 LAD NL 40 10 5 0 19 9 .679 0 276 241 111 99 80 179 3.23 106 23 1148 1051 40 8 2 6 9 2 14 16 4 0 2 4 .229 .287 .348 .635 86 22 Wilbur Wood 1974 42 32 CHW AL 42 22 1 0 20 19 .513 0 320.1 305 143 128 80 169 3.60 105 27 1316 1201 50 7 8 9 14 12 33 29 16 6 0 5 .254 .303 .375 .678 91
July 21st, 2008 at 10:42 am
A bunch of knuckleballers and nobody in the last 20 years. Denny McLain's 30-win season record is safe. Probably forever.
July 21st, 2008 at 1:19 pm
The most starts
since 1988: 37 (3 times)
since 2000: 36 (3 times)
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/ZyM3
July 21st, 2008 at 2:46 pm
A few guys would have 40 starts each season during the deadball era. After 1920 it became very rare. Then Drysdale did it a few times in the '60s, and it occurred with some regularity from the mid-60s through mid-70s -- the last bunch of them shown in the chart above. The longer schedule (among other things) helped bring it back, and the 5-man rotation helped it disappear again.
While having more starts helps, I tend to think of the decline in starter win totals being related to innings pitched instead. There seems to be a rule of 10 for SP wins. It is nearly impossible for a SP to win more games than 1/10 of his IP total. E.G. the best you can do in 300 IP is win 30 games, in 250 IP you can win 25 games, in 200 IP you can win 20 games at most. You can search this easily on PI. Set any number of maximum innings in a season throughout history, and there's only 1 or 2 pitchers who ever won more than 1/10 that number of games. Since no one has thrown 300 IP in a season since 1980, no one comes close to 30 wins. 250 IP is usually as high as anyone gets these days, so it would take an extraordinary season to even reach 25 wins. Most top SP are around 220 IP, so now even getting 20 wins is tough.
July 21st, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Interesting observation, Johnny.
July 21st, 2008 at 10:31 pm
bob welch- the last guy with a serious single season win total- broke that rule, at least for one season when he went 27-4 in a very 2008-ish 35 starts, 238 innings, and seven complete games.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:29 pm
Yup, Welch skews things. The next fewest IP for 27 wins is Don Newcombe with 268 in 1956. The next most W in 238 IP is only 23, by Zito '03 and Martinez '99. Like I said, there's 1 or 2 guys who break the Rule of 10 at every number of wins. But Welch smashes it. He must have the best ratio of W to IP of anyone with a decent # of IP.
Actually, if you look at the most W for any # of IP, a lot of the highest guys are in recent years (even more recent than Welch). Obviously going from 8 IP per start to 6 IP per start decreases one's chance of getting a win, but apparently by a smaller % than the IP are decreased.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:52 pm
The other thing that stands out are the CG numbers. Finish a game and you're probably going to be the winner. Now, a "quality start" is pretty much half a game, and you're dependent on at least 2 other guys to hold the opposition.
Phil Niekro's on there 3 times and his CG number is always higher than his win total for the season. You'd think for all those starts there would be more 20-game winners, but there are only 9. The guys with the lower CG numbers generally have fewer wins, too. That's an interesting list.
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Long before Baseball-Reference.com, there was The Franklin Big League Baseball Encyclopedia. You could type in, MIN IP/W SS QUAL (that's minimum ratio of innings pitched to wins in a single season by someone who pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title), and it would reply,
Pitcher Year IP/W IP W
Bob Welch 1990 8.815 238.0 27
Storm Davis 1989 8.912 169.1 19
Lefty Grove 1931 9.312 288.2 31
Tom Gordon 1989 9.588 163.0 17
Walter Johnson 1913 9.611 346.0 36
Sandy Consuegra 1954 9.625 154.0 16
Joe Bush 1922 9.821 255.1 26
Bill Campbell 1976 9.863 167.2 17
Tom Sturdivant 1956 9.896 158.1 16
Don Newcombe 1956 9.926 268.0 27
Bob Grim 1954 9.950 199.0 20
Eddie Plank 1912 9.987 259.2 26
Tommy Byrne 1955 10.00 160.0 16
That will probably come out looking dreadful, because I don't speak html. Anyway, the Franklin only knows about the AL and the NL, and only up through 1992, so it misses a few things (for example, Pedro Martinez has broken the 10 barrier twice since 1992). Also, it can't distinguish relief wins from other wins, so some of these guys may have picked up a few of their wins in relief (but they all pitched 150 or more innings).
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Gerry, was that the little hand-held gizmo, like the size of a calculator? I don't remember the name but I had something like that, and it was super. You could have it do all kinds of strange calculations like that which still aren't possible on B-R. I can remember calculating the best single-season K/9 ratios and being amazed at Rob Dibble's numbers. (That can be found on B-R, of course, but it's just something I remember doing on the old Franklin as well.)
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I've said this recently elsewhere on this blog, but for a while I've been asking Sean to add simple math capabilities to the PI so we could calculate basic math stats, such as runs plus RBI, or strikeouts per win, etc. It hasn't happened yet obviously.
July 24th, 2008 at 12:07 am
Yes, Johnny, that's the one. Andy, I bet it would be a fair bit of work to add those capabilities to this site, and I'm not sure how big the market would be, but I'm in your corner on this one - keep asking Sean about it, please.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
i dont know if this skews things, but mike mussina is on pace for 20 wins and only 187 innings. anyone know what the fewest amount of innings for a 20 game winner is?
July 25th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Good question, vincent. I posted the answer here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/727
July 25th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
awsome. thanks!