Wood’s blown save and Rollins’ walk-off HR
Posted by Andy on June 24, 2010
I just wrote a similar post on Papelbon and Giambi.
Now it's time for Kerry Wood and Jimmy Rollins.
Wood, pitching with a 1-run lead, allowed a 2-run walk-homer to Rollins last night.
Unlike Papelbon, for whom last night's blow save was an unavoidable blip, Wood's performance is par for the course in 2010.
It was just Wood's 3rd blown save of the year, but that doesn't tell the whole story.
| Rk | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | IR | IS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2010-06-23 | CLE | PHI | L 6-7 | 9-9f ,BL | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2010-06-10 | CLE | BOS | W 8-7 | 9-9f ,BW | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2010-05-19 | CLE | KCR | L 4-8 | 9-9 ,BL | 0.1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2009-09-26 | CLE | BAL | W 9-8 | 9-9f ,BW | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 2009-07-31 | CLE | DET | W 6-5 | 8-9 ,BS | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| 6 | 2009-06-20 | CLE | CHC | L 5-6 | 13-13f,BL | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 2009-06-19 | CLE | CHC | L 7-8 | 9-9 ,BS | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 2009-05-19 | CLE | KCR | L 5-6 | 9-9f ,BL | 0.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 2009-05-04 | CLE | TOR | W 9-7 | 9-9 ,BS | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 2008-09-07 | CHC | CIN | L 3-4 | 9-9f ,BL | 0.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 2008-07-05 | CHC | STL | L 4-5 | 9-9f ,BL | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 2008-05-24 | CHC | PIT | L 4-5 | 9-10 ,BS | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 2008-05-01 | CHC | MIL | L 3-4 | 9-9f ,BL | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 2008-04-23 | CHC | COL | W 7-6 | 9-9 ,BW | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 2008-04-09 | CHC | PIT | W 6-4 | 9-9 ,BS | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
The loss ran Wood's ERA to 7.98 this season, 8th worst in baseball this year (minimum 14 ):
| Rk | Player | IP | Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | GS | CG | SHO | GF | W | L | SV | H | R | ER | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Morton | 9.35 | 43.1 | 2010 | 26 | PIT | NL | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .100 | 0 | 66 | 52 | 45 | 16 | 35 | 44 |
| 2 | Trevor Hoffman | 9.00 | 22.0 | 2010 | 42 | MIL | NL | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4 | .333 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 22 | 11 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | Chad Qualls | 8.88 | 24.1 | 2010 | 31 | ARI | NL | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 12 | 44 | 29 | 24 | 11 | 24 | 51 |
| 4 | Charlie Haeger | 8.53 | 25.1 | 2010 | 26 | LAD | NL | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .000 | 0 | 31 | 28 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Chris Tillman | 8.40 | 15.0 | 2010 | 22 | BAL | AL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0 | 25 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 52 |
| 6 | John Grabow | 8.10 | 23.1 | 2010 | 31 | CHC | NL | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0 | 33 | 24 | 21 | 13 | 19 | 55 |
| 7 | Juan Gutierrez | 8.03 | 24.2 | 2010 | 26 | ARI | NL | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5 | .000 | 1 | 32 | 23 | 22 | 10 | 23 | 57 |
| 8 | Kerry Wood | 7.98 | 14.2 | 2010 | 33 | CLE | AL | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 51 |
| 9 | P.J. Walters | 7.94 | 17.0 | 2010 | 25 | STL | NL | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0 | 22 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 52 |
| 10 | Cesar Valdez | 7.65 | 20.0 | 2010 | 25 | ARI | NL | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 0 | 29 | 19 | 17 | 10 | 13 | 60 |
And while his K/9 IP rate of 6.8 is close to league average, it's way below his own career rate of 10.3 (1st among active pitchers and 2nd all-time). Fewer strikeouts means more balls put into play, which itself means more hits apparently.
Last night's homer was the first walk-off homer of Rollins' career and just the 3rd walk-off plate appearance of his career. He had a game-winning single off Victor Santos in 2007 and a game-winning single off John Smoltz in 2003.
Rollins is in the midst of his 3rd straight dismal season since his MVP-winning year in 2007. This year, it's injuries that have limited him to just 14 games. Last year his incredibly slow start yielding seasonal numbers of an 86 OPS+ and a.296 OBP . In 2008, he was merely average, showing that his 2007 season was a fluke. (And mind you, most people agree that Rollins didn't really deserve the 2007 MVP anyway.)
June 24th, 2010 at 9:29 am
Kerry Wood, in June, including the debacle last night: .207/.281/.414 against, I think you're giving his early injuries far too little blame for his early struggles.
June 24th, 2010 at 9:47 am
I find it interesting that you say that Rollins is having an "abysmal" year. Yes, his playing time has been limited and I'm sure these numbers will level out but hes hitting .300 with an OPS+ of 165. Again, small sample size but far from abysmal
June 24th, 2010 at 9:59 am
It's abysmal because the Phillies need him in the lineup. I'm not saying the injuries are his fault, but it's definitely an abysmal situation--just a different sort of abysmal from 2008-2009.
June 24th, 2010 at 11:00 am
This was Rollins' 3rd regular season walk-off hit, but we Phillies fans gleefully remember his 2-run walk-off double with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th in Game 5 of the 2009 NLCS off Jonathan Broxton.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2009/B10190PHI2009.htm
June 24th, 2010 at 11:01 am
Game 4 - My memory surpasses my typing skills.
June 24th, 2010 at 11:54 am
This has gotten to be par for the course with Wood. I wonder how much longer it will take for Cleveland to realize that, at this point, he's essentially Kyle Farnsworth. Cleveland does have Perez in waiting, so it isn't as though they don't have any other options.
June 24th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
The thing about Rollins in his MVP year, was the perception that whenever the Phillies needed an important run or to turn things on, it was always Rollins being the catalyst. My perception of watching that season is that there were countless times the announcers were calling for the Phils to get something going and Rollins came up, either walks or singles, steals second and/or third, and someone drives him home to tie it up or take the lead.
I have no idea what the statistics bear out but normal people watching the Phillies that year got that impression, I'm sure.
June 24th, 2010 at 12:24 pm
Normal people?
June 24th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Another Abnormal person:
Lets not forget Rollins accomplished a feat so rare, only once in baseball has it been done before. 2009 - 100 R.
No one wants to say it, but Rollins 55 HRs over two years, is starting to look a little...
June 24th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
excuse me... 2009 - less than .300 OBP, more than 100 Runs
June 24th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
A lot of people, myself included, would argue that had the Mets not pissed away that division lead at the end of 2007, David Wright would've been the NL MVP, and probably still rightfully should've been. From July 28th to the end of that season, Wright went .385/.485/.633, and was the one Met who hit consistently during their awful 5-12 stretch run, batting .397 in those last 17 games. The stench of that collapse was just too much to overcome in the voting.
June 24th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
Hey Joe, I'm not sure what whining about the MVP award gets you except a reminder about up 17 with 7.5 to play. Go choke on that. Lets go Mutz!
Dukeofflatbush, go look up the 'Most similar by Age' hitters to Rollins, you'll see the same HR pattern again and again. If instead you want to accuse him of cheating just go ahead and say, don't be a pu$$y.
June 24th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
It seems like a bunch of people are still sore about Rollins winning the MVP in... 2007. That was 3 years ago, guys. Give it a rest. In the grand scheme of things, who won the NL MVP 3 years ago means absolutely nothing.
As for his 2007 season being a fluke, that's absurd. It was his best season, yes, but it wasn't a "fluke". It's not like his batting average was 70 points over his career mark or his 30 homers were that much more than his previous career high (25). Jimmy Rollins is a good player who had a great year in 2007. Should he have won the MVP? Who cares? It was 3 years ago.
June 24th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
I just realized something. 100% of baseball history happened in the past. Why the heck are we still talking about it?
June 24th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
Yea Johnny, we do talk about it. But you don't hear anyone complaining about who won the World Series in 1984 or who the MVP was in 1936 or saying that the 2005 AL Cy Young was unfair (I'm picking years and awards at random here, you get the idea). What it boilds down to is a bunch of people who think they're smarter than the people who vote for the MVP (and might be, for all I know) are kicking up a fuss because someone won the award without conforming to whatever arbitrary formula they've unofficially set up for evaluating talent. Get over it.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
Just because...
Tm F W L GB SRS
ATL F 42 30 -- 0.7
NYM F 41 30 0.5 1.0
PHI F 37 32 3.5 0.6</B
FLA F 35 36 6.5 0.6
WSN F 33 40 9.5 -0.5
Let's go Mutz indeed!
June 24th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
Just because...
I can't code in HTML doesn't change the fact the Mutz (heading into their own game tonight) are tied for first place.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Wow, Bobo and Malcom, relax guys. As far as I was concerned, we were having a civil discussion about some interesting statistical facts. And Bobo, you REALLY need to relax. Name calling, really? What are you, in junior high? And if you're gonna cite stats, at least get them right - they were 7 up with 17 to play, not 17 up with 7.5 to play. What the heck would 7.5 to play even mean? They had to play half of a game?
Yes, Rollins had a great year in 2007. I wasn't whining about anything. I was merely pointing out, in response to the discussion that had already come up regarding his MVP award that year, that the voting was probably influenced by the Mets historic late season collapse. I apologize if this topic doesn't meet your guys mysterious and arbitrary standards of approval.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
I wasn't upset with you, Joe. It was more the end of the article, where Andy called Rollins' 2007 season a fluke and basically asked people to challenge the MVP award. I thought that was unnecessary, given that the rest of the article was, like you said, a civil discussion about statistical oddities.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Hm.
By my math, up 7 with 17 to go is still a smaller collapse than up 6 with 10 to go. 1964 still wins.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Hey XZPUMAZX, thats great the Mets win the award for being ahead of the Phils on ...whats today? Cause that really matters, I hope you enjoy raising your pennant for tied for first on June 24th! That is just fantastic. I'm sure you're looking forward to choking again in september.
Come on Joe, its ok for DukeofFlatBusch to accuse someone of being a cheating steriod user without any facts but I can't call him a Pu$$y for beating around the bush and not coming out and saying it? Go pound sand.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
Let's keep the language a bit cleaner guys. The heated debate is fine but nobody should be using words that require inserted symbols.
The 2007 NL MVP vote was a travesty. I wouldn't suggest we go back and argue all historical voting, but that one in particular was ridiculous. Virtually everything that happens on this web site is about putting historical performances into context, so I don't see why continuing to debate that MVP vote isn't worthwhile.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
Hey nightfly you got it wrong see, 1964 wasn't the worst collapse because no one remembers 1964...the 2007 AND 2008 collapses by the Mutz were more recent, and thus much more painful! Plus they collapse both times to the same team in almost the same exact circumstances. Further, that team then went on to win the WS something the Mutz couldn't do back in 2006 when they did make the playoffs. See now?
June 24th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
OK Andy, your so smart tell us who should have won the award that year?
June 24th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
LOL Bobo, as a Met fan I take what I can get.
In any case...Do the voters ever get the MVP right? The guidlines are so nebulous. I wish they would just call the award the Most Valubale Player on a Playoff Club. MVPOAPC, it just rolls off the tounge.
2007 - David Wright - 7.8 WAR
2007 - Jimmy Rollins - 6.1 WAR
Are we really still debating this?
June 24th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
It's has nothing to do with how smart or dumb I am, but here are the top finishers in WAR among batters in the 2007 NL:
Generated 6/24/2010.
Pujols, Jones, Wright, Holliday, and Utley were all more deserving than Rollins, not just because they finished higher in WAR.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:33 pm
Fine, but your missing the real MVP that year, which is also supported by his WAR. So feel free to cherry pick your guy, that is the same thing the voters do.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
my last post was a replying to XZPUMAZX.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
Dude, Bobo, can you please just relax? Yes, the Mets collapsed in 2007 and 2008. They suxorz. Phillies roxxorz. You win. Congratulations. Happy now?
Your name calling and one-upmanship are inappropriate and making this thread unpleasant. Go beat your chest somewhere else.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
I'd disagree with Holliday being more valuable that year then Rollins though, anyone from Col has their number inflated too much due to that ball park. I don't think we'll ever see a hitter from Col that deserves to by the MVP, but we may see a pitcher some day...
June 24th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
So Joe, I'll type it real slow this time, my issue is that Mets fan always point to D.Wright as the person that should have one that award over rollins, which I think is a crock. Basically, it's ok for you to support your guy for MVP, even though the team collapsed and he probably wasn't the best player that year, but if a Phils fan supports Rollins for some subjective arbitary award then the Phils fan is a philistine dummy. go play in traffic
June 24th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
In '07 Rollins was pretty clutch - 2.69 WPA (second on his team to Howard, just 0.1 ahead of Burrell)
In '07 Wright was better - 4.15 WPA (first on his team by almost 2.0)
So who was more valubale to his team? Without Wright the Mets are never in the position to collapse. Wait, is that a good thing or a bad thing?
June 24th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
WAR corrects for Park Factors. I personally don't find it sensible to blindly discount all performances from a particular team or in a particular park, anyway.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Bobo, I thought the debate was who was more valuable Wright or Rollins. Obviously Pujols was better then both of them, oh and he was better than Howard in '06 too.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:48 pm
In '07 Rollins hit 12 HR's on the road and batted .266/.320/.419
In '07 Rollins hit 18 HR's at CBP and batted .283/.339/.463
Do we discount those stats because he played in a park that inflates offensive numbers?
Love the PI by the way.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
I'm not sure I agree that WAR 'corrects' for Park Factors, I think it filters them somewhat but when quantifying the added value from a single player adjusting using averages isn't going to be 100% correct.
XZPUMAZX, your buddy Joe was up there talking up d.wright should have won the MVP, which is wrong, Pujols should have. Pujols should have won it in 2006, and the Mets should have won the WS in 2006 but they didn't. The Mets should have won the NL East in 2007 but they didn't, the Mets should have, well I'm sure you get it now.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Back on topic and because I'm bored at work...
Does anyone know who has the most walkoff hits, walkoff HR's in history?
June 24th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
XZPUMAZX you're dense, i'm not saying rollins should have won the MVP award that year. you're a dope.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
*sigh*
Bobo, since this 'discussion' began, you've told me to 'go pound sand', 'go play in traffic', and called another poster an inappropriate name. Grow up.
All I ever said was that had the Mets not collapsed (which I've admitted they did, so please don't respond saying 'BUT THEY DID COLLAPSE AND WILL ALWAYS COLLAPSE AND ARE THE WORST TEAM EVER AND SHOULD ALL RETIRE AND THE TEAM SHOULD FOLD' or some other such colorful remark), Wright probably would've won MVP. As it was, they did collapse, and Rollins won an award that he probably didn't deserve.
I'm also well aware that there have been other awards in the history of the game that have been disputed, and that this may not even be the most egregious case, and that nothing's gonna change what happened by discussing it here three years after the fact. Root for your team as much as you want, that's great. Is it too much to ask that we all do it in a civil and respectful manner?
June 24th, 2010 at 4:54 pm
If Wright has 'won' then he would have 'won' an award he DIDN't deserve? Do you get this double standard here or not?
June 24th, 2010 at 4:55 pm
Guys, no poster is ever going to stop calling you names because you ask him to. I have the power to erase comments and block posters and will do so if vulgarity is used. But the best thing you can do is limit your response to the actual topic of debate. The more you complain about name-calling, the more you're going to get called names. Anybody who reads this thread will see that Bobo's arguments are fallacious. So, if you're tired of dealing with him, just stop responding.
June 24th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
I think Beltran should have won it in '06.
I am not sure about '07. If I have nothing better to do tonight, perhaps I'll look at it a bit and offer up the long-awaited Johnny Twisto Approved MVP.
I am sure that simply accepting the winner and not debating it is completely antithetical to being a baseball fan.
June 24th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
Wiki Answeres:
According to the Society for American Baseball Research, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Frank Robinson, and Babe Ruth hold the MLB career record for walk off home runs with 12.
Can anyone confirm this. I'm too cheap/poor to subscribe to the PI.
June 24th, 2010 at 5:07 pm
It's not really possible to determine with the PI. You can look up walkoff hits for any player who's games are within the PI Box Scores, but you can't do a general search to list all by all players.
June 24th, 2010 at 5:15 pm
Sorry Andy, you're right, and I apologize. Thanks for setting me straight.
Now then ... I think Beltran would've won MVP in 2006 had the voting been done a month earlier. He was batting .286 with 39 HR, 112 RBI, and a 1.018 OPS on September 1st, but batted just .190 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, and a .726 OPS the rest of the way.
June 24th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
I won't say Rollins was the clear cut choice to win the MVP in 07, but certainly not a travesty. The people that call it travesty are forgetting that they're comparing a leadoff hitter with other sluggers (3 or 4 hitters) offensively. While his OBP may have been league average (hardly impressive), the more important stat was the run scoring, which easily led the league. While you may argue that runs are a team dependent stat, don't forget that Rollins did a lot of that work to make that happen. His 380 total bases and 88 extra base hits are insane numbers for a leadoff hitter. Enough to beat to out every other league SLUGGER besides Holliday. Add the facts that he was a legitimate gold glover and playing every game and it's hardly a bad choice.
June 24th, 2010 at 6:04 pm
Joe, my thinking on Beltran is that the Mets had a 16 game lead at the beginning of September, and it never got to less than 11, so what he did that month, good or bad, didn't matter that much. (Of course, now that we know about the Mets' following two Septembers, maybe that's not such a smart statement...) Anyway you may be right that September cost him the award with the actual voters. I don't think it was clear-cut -- Pujols would have been a fine choice -- but I lean Beltran.
June 24th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Yeah, JT, I agree. Like you guessed though, I was talking about the actual voting. I remember the talk at the beginning of September that year, and I think he wins the award if he doesn't have such an anemic month. Especially when you look at who did win it - Ryan Howard - and the numbers he put up down the stretch. After the All-Star break, Howard batted .355/.509/.751 with 30 HR and 78 RBI in 75 games, including a ridiculous .385 AVG with a .562 OBP in September.
As for Pujols, not saying this is altogether fair, but I think he gets punished a bit every year in the voting simply for being Pujols. In that, if he won the MVP award every time you could make a case that he might deserve it, he'd win it every year. And that would be silly. They might as well rename the award the Albert Pujols award. So he doesn't win it unless it clear cut that he's the choice.
June 24th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
"In that, if he won the MVP award every time you could make a case that he might deserve it, he'd win it every year."
While I totaly agree with your logic, what a ridiculous reason to not award the best player with the 'best player' award.
June 24th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
bobo,
firstly, i think you are not so smart. i did come "right out" and say i thought Rollins used PEDs. what else could i be referring to? was i alluding to a corked bat? esp? is there anyone reading this who thought i was mincing my words? do you think i fear, through this anonymous blog, retribution from rollins' fans with SUPER-HURT feelings? so, obviously i left that ellipsis to cover my butt. a great big smoke screen. it is like the dollar signs in your very mature and misogynistic name calling. we KNOW they are not dollar signs. and we are not challenging you to tell us what they REALLY are, because we are smart.
but yep, you are not so smart, and you have missed the points made by ANDY and JOE. YES we know 2007 was in the past, BUT we think it is fun to debate like adults. we also know we can not go back and change history. i also know OTHER's opinion can't hurt me or change my own opinion, so i shouldn't fear them, unless i was soft in the head, like... well, you.
secondly, i can't say exactly what i do, but i will say that i have many years of experience in the medical field. i know anatomy and i know the changes the human body is capable of making on its own, and i know the changes that are made through certain bio/synth-chemical reactions.
yes, you can say - i can not, without a shadow of a doubt, be sure of someone's illicit drug use, but i also have the right to my opinion.
JIMMY ROLLINS EXHIBITED TELL TALE SIGNS OF HGH ABUSE (not in ability, but physical change). is that clear enough for you. HE IS NOW, SHOWING SIGNS OF SOMEONE COMING OFF HGH (again, physically) it just so happens his stats match.
June 24th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
I don't think the Rollins MVP is crazy. There are a few good candidates that season and none really stands out to me. I probably wouldn't have voted Rollins 1st, and maybe he'd be as low as 5th or so, but I can't see him as an absurd choice, like Andre Dawson '87 or something. If he hadn't missed a month, Chase Utley likely would have been the clear choice (and he may well have deserved it anyway), but as is I can see a lot of room open for interpretation, based on one's assessment of defense and how one weights clutch play and being on a contending team.
June 24th, 2010 at 10:25 pm
Andy, what the hell is with the Rollins hate for no reason? And maybe you should follow his career a little more closely to call 2007 a "fluke" based on 08-09. He got off to a hot start in 2008 (just like 2010) then hurt his ankle on a pickoff play at second. If you had known (or remembered that) you'd know that's why he was "merely average."
June 24th, 2010 at 11:35 pm
Wow.
Of all the MVP award winners that may not have deserved it, Jimmy Rollins gets this type of a reaction?
Rollins, from everything I know about, has never been accused of cheating, has never been in the papers for doing anything illegal, and has seemingly been an upstanding citizen. His numbers really didn't increase that dramatically from 2006 to 2007 (from 25 to 30 homers, 45 to 38 doubles, 9 to 20 triples, .811 OPS to .875 OPS), as opposed to other players from the steroid era (I'm looking at you Brady Anderson). To be honest, it was just another solid year by Rollins in what was a relatively weak season for other players (not named Albert Pujols, because he could win it almost every season).
To accuse Rollins of taking PEDs without any proof is doing a diservice to both Rollins and to the game of baseball. If one is going to think that people are guilty until proven innocent, then why watch the games? Granted, there are always going to be people using since there isn't a 100% reliable test, but you can't pick someone without proof and say they're doing it.
And, if we are going to discuss someone that didn't deserve their MVP the year they got it, we should look at 1999 when Ivan Rodriguez beat Pedro for the award.
June 25th, 2010 at 6:07 am
Rich, I follow Rollins' career quite closely. I don't "hate" him.
Let's just point out a few facts about Rollins.
As Sean pointed out at the end of the 2007 season right here Rollins makes a ton of outs, and not just because he bats leadoff. In 2007 he one of the worst seasons all-time in making outs.
For a little more perspective, check out the MVP debate we had at the end of the 2007 season right here. Rollins came in second there and some folks believed Utley deserved it more than Rollins too.
How about some real numbers? In 2007, Rollins' fluke year, he had an OPS+ of 119. Very good, not excellent. He has never been above 103 in any other full season, and in fact his career OPS+ is below 100. Without that 2007 fluke performance his career OPS+ would be close to 90, bad for an everyday leadoff hitter.
In 2007, he had 6.1 Wins Above Replacement, by far his best career mark. He's topped 4 only two other times and is usually under 3. His career runs above replacement as a batter is NEGATIVE 46. 2007 was his only full substantially above zero, with a +13. (He had other years at +1 and +3 and so far in 2010 he's +5--but last year for example he was at -16, 2002 was -20, 2003 was -13...etc.) Rollins' runs above replacement as a fielder have been his saving grace. The guy is an excellent defensive player and always has been--can't take away anything from him here.
In short, I tire of arguments from Phillies fans that Rollins is always at the center of rallies. Yeah, he's often there because he's the leadoff hitter and the same is true of most other teams' leadoff hitters. Rollins also fails alot to start or continue rallies, more than other leadoff hitters. His OBP is weak and his overall production as a hitter is below league average. I'm not saying he's a terrible player--I love his energy, hustle, and drive and if I owned a team I'd love to have him on it. He's just not the MVP-caliber player that many folks seem to think. He fell a bit short in 2007 and falls way short most other years.
So, just to summarize, the numbers clearly prove that 2007 was, indeed a fluke year for Rollins.
June 25th, 2010 at 8:25 am
Dave,
First, I'm not saying a jump in 5 homers, 25 to 30, is the smoking gun. But a five year average of 12 HR Suddenly doubles over 2 seasons, while not a smoking gun, it does my eyebrow raise. I also mentioned certain physical traits and changes, other than performance traits and changes, that Rollins exhibited just before and during his HR surge. Trust me, Jimmy's hat size has a greater diameter than it used to.
As for an argument that goes something like, "well what about Brady Anderson?" Well, what about him...? Do you want to bring up Hal Chase too. I heard he was a bad guy, but unfortunately, he has nothing, whatsoever to do with this conversation.
Yes ballplayers are innocent till proven guilty. My opinion on a baseball thread is not GUILT. He is still innocent last I checked.
Even as a die-hard Mets fan, and this breaks my heart to say; but I'd rather buy the Brooklyn Bridge than believe two multimillion dollar athletes, drove to Canada to "see" a chiropractor. Yes Reyes and Beltran are innocent too, but not in my eyes. Reyes and Beltran, just like Jimmy, suddenly have caught the injury bug, once Gaellia was shut down.
I'm sorry guys, you can still love baseball and not sit there ignorantly.
June 25th, 2010 at 9:01 am
dukeofflatbush,
Please provide you source of your knowledge regarding Rollin's had size. Where is your proof that it changed?
June 25th, 2010 at 9:03 am
I don't think there's anything wrong with saying 2007 was a fluke year for Rollins AND he deserved MVP consideration because of it.
June 25th, 2010 at 9:04 am
Rollins power 'surge' also coincides with his prime hitting years, and also coincides with moving to from the Vet to that band box in 2004.
June 25th, 2010 at 9:04 am
Alan, I'm not saying Rollins didn't deserve the MVP because it was a fluke year. I'm saying A) He didn't deserve MVP and B) it was a fluke year. They are independent things that I think are both true.
June 25th, 2010 at 9:19 am
How many SS in the last 10 years have Rollins' OPS+, his SB numbers (not to mention percentage), and play his level of defense?
There are only 6 SS with 500 games played since 2004 with higher OPS+ than Rollins (Hanley, Guillen, Jeter, Tejada, Young, Peralta). None of them approach his SB numbers or efficiency (228 SB, 36 CS). Defense is notoriously hard to measure, but I'd take Rollins over any of them in their defensive prime. The only one close is Reyes, whose OPS+ is one point lower than Rollins in that span.
The idea that he's an average hitter overlooks positional scarcity. Rollins is league average, but he's well above average among SS. When you're the 7th highest in OPS+ over a 6 year period, you're one of the top 5-10% of guys able to field your position. That Rollins plays excellent defense and is great on the bags only adds to that. He shouldn't be a lead-off hitter, and by advanced metrics (that don't care for narratives) he shouldn't have won the MVP. But that's no reason to see a solid MVP career as mediocre.
Dukeofflatbush, it's called a peak. MLB players peak in their late 20s. Rollins good offensive season, specifically good power seasons, came in his age 27-28 years. That shouldn't be surprising. Alan Trammell did the exact same thing.
June 25th, 2010 at 9:26 am
What makes something a "fluke"? That word use makes it sound like it wasn't a product of skill, a piece of luck or an unlikely occurrence. Was his BAbip inflated? No, it was .300 (with a 20% LD rate, right around career norms). His HR/FB and HR% were nearly identical to his 2006 season. There have been many middle infielders who show more power in their late 20s. His 2007 season wasn't all that unlikely, esp. coming off his 2006 season.
June 25th, 2010 at 9:26 am
i said earlier in this post, that i work in an academic field that i can't be specific about. one field of our study happens to be athletic performance and chemical supplements, both natural and legal, and synthetic and illegal and their effect on the performance and the physical changes of users.
there is such a huge field of PEDs out there and each one does completely different things to individuals.
cyclists have come under the most fire of late for doping. it would be disadvantageous for a cycler to use a bulking PED, or to use a PED with bulking potential, then train like a powerlifter. cyclists tend to use drugs that break down glucose differently, allowing for longer, sustained energy bursts, and they also prefer chemicals that alter thire ratio of oxygen in their blood, something called VO2max.
even something like steroids does not simply make you bigger or better. different steroids have varying effects on different users.
A-rod, never "bulked-up" during his admitted steroid use because of his choice in steroid. it gave him you leaner, greater density quick twitch muscles, therefore, you may be right, that I would have missed A-rod, if I just "profiled" my athletes.
but that is not the case in Rollins.
i work with people who "had an interest" in baseball's drug problem. Private investigators were hired by authors, teams, agents, and members of the ATF to find out small things like shoe size and head size.
Rollins head and feet did not grow when he was 22-26, but they did grow when he was 27, 28, & 29.
I know this. I also can see this by looking at before and after pictures.
June 25th, 2010 at 9:52 am
Duke,
Why haven't you gone public with this information, do you actually have any real tangible data. What other players do you know this about? Stop being so vague site your source, come forward with it in a real report to the public, you throw out their 'teams/agents/authors/ATF' but you still avoid answering anything directly. Saying 'TV and/or pictures' is a bit weak. Why would an academic field have access to criminal cases worked by the ATF? Absolutely nothing that you are proposing so far seems plausible...your just throwing out unsubtantiated claims on an internet board.
June 25th, 2010 at 11:34 am
My qualifier about "normal people" simply meant the casual baseball fan who catches a few games at the park during the season, watches on tv, and only cares about BA, HR, RBIs, W-L, and ERA. They don't know about WAR or WPA and thus are highly influenced by the media and announcers. If you watch 50 games a year and every game they talk about how "clutch" Jimmy Rollins is and build his case for the MVP, it will effect you.
June 25th, 2010 at 1:31 pm
I'm gonna go ahead and said Duke is full of BS. How do I know?
I work in a field I can't be specific about that investigated his field that he can't be specific about and found him to be untruthful
June 25th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
andy, i don't think that it was so much of a fluke year than a peak year as sophist points out. looking at his base numbers in 07 vs his previous highs it doesn't look all that flukey, they just all came together that year.
*runs 139 vs 127, in his previous years, it had be more or less steadily increasing and peaked in 07.
*hits 212 vs 196 in 05, well he had 55 more pa's, percentage-wise it is what you'd expect.
*rbis 94 vs 83
*2b's 38 vs 45, see 3b's
*3b's 20 vs 12, 3b's are abnormally high because that last month when people started to talk about rollins and mvp he was turning 2b's into 3b's. i remember his last at bat of the season he stretched 2b into a 3b to get to 20.
*hr's 30 vs 25
*sb's 41 vs 47, also in the last game, he swiped 2 to get over 40 sb's for the season.
*ave .296 vs .290, it doesn't surprise me that a guy that has hit .289 and .290 can hit .296.
*obp .344 vs .348, it has been surpassed twice before and again in 08 with a high of .349 and probably be surpassed again this injury shortened year. also it is probably down because he was hacking for xbh more often than taking pitches for a bb.
*slg .531 vs .487, he peaked in hr's and 3b's in 07 so it stands to be higher.
June 25th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
morons,
i have nothing to gain by lying. i hate rollins but that is irrelevant. i love reyes, but i reiterate, he didn't go to a toronto chiropractor to get his neck adjusted.
PEDs is in baseball. we know that. 99% of the information we have today about PED use is obtained through long term studies done by university faculties.
equipmentmanager: I HAVE answered every question. you must be dense. did anyone ask me where i worked? what i did? no! they asked me why i thought jimmy was juicing and i answered honestly. then they asked why i thought that, and i answered honestly. if you want to know where i work, tough.
the US supreme court has upheld capital murder cases held together by DNA evidence provided by undergraduates in university labs.
where do you think mitchell, MLB and donald fehr get their information from? BASEBALLREFERENCE... i don't think so.
i like my job.
it pays well.
i'm going to keep it.
and RICH, the discussion is not about me. it is about rollins and his ever expanding head.
if anyone thinks, that before the a MLB team signs a guaranteed $140 million contract, they don't hire a $2,000 dollar Private Dick, then you're nutz.
June 25th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Ok mr. CSI, thanks for the rant. I'll summarive what little I've learned...First you worked with ATF, then you worked on the Mitchell Report, and you work in academics, and you make a ton of cash, you hate Rollins, but won't go public with all the facts you have about him cheating, you do know how MLB teams operate, have access to show size and head sizes for certain players. And you really hate rollins.
June 25th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
equipmentslobber,
hate?
no,
i am, though, starting to dislike how silly you are.
not CSI, Ivy League.
not a ton of cash, but enough.
not the ATF, but i have testified for them twice.
not mitchell report, but know people who were consultants.
and you?
managing equipment working out?
June 25th, 2010 at 5:17 pm
Managing equipment which requires management seems far more useful than measuring Jimmy Rollins's head.