Stable pitching rotations
Posted by Andy on July 2, 2007
I started with the Play Index Pitching Season Finder, and searched for years in which GS (game starts) were greater than equal to 25 for the most players on an individual team. The first 65 teams listed on there are the teams that had all 5 starters make at least 25 starts. Most of us would think that this is a great feat, indicative of great teams. Obviously it means that must have pretty good options in all 5 slots, plus have avoided injuries to its starting pitchers.
But how have these teams done?
I looked at the final records for each one of these teams, as well as playoff appearances, and here is the summary:
- The total winning percentage of these 65 teams is 0.548, which is not bad (but not great.) In a 162-game season, that would be about 88 wins and 74 losses.
- The best teams (record-wise) to accomplish the feat are:
- 2004 Cardinals(Matt Morris / Jason Marquis / Woody Williams / Jeff Suppan / Chris Carpenter)
- 1998 Braves (Greg Maddux / Tom Glavine / Denny Neagle / Kevin Millwood / John Smoltz)
- 1923 Yankees (Sam Jones / Waite Hoyt / Joe Bush / Bob Shawkey / Herb Pennock)
- 1906 Giants (Joe McGinnity / Hooks Wiltse / Christy Mathewson / Red Ames / Dummy Taylor)
- Of these 65 teams, 23 (35%) made the playoffs. That's a great ratio, considering that these days with 30 teams and 8 that make the playoffs, a typical team has about a 27% chance to make the playoffs, and that rate was even lower prior to the wild card age.
- Of the 23 teams that made the playoffs, 7 won the World Series. That includes 3 out of 12 in the wild-card era. That's also a pretty good rate.
- The worst teams to have 5 starters make at least 25 starts are:
- 1992 Dodgers (Kevin Gross / Orel Hershiser / Tom Candiotti / Bob Ojeda / Ramon Martinez)
- 1944 Philadelphia Blue Jays (Charley Schanz / Ken Raffensberger / Dick Barrett / Bill Lee / Al Gerheauser)
- 1929 Red Sox (Milt Gaston / Jack Russell / Red Ruffing / Ed Morris / Danny MacFayden)
This analysis obviously doesn't look at 4-man rotations, and a lot of the data prior to the 1980s should be taken with a grain of salt.