Two surprising rotations in 2011
Posted by John Autin on June 28, 2011
Through Sunday, two teams -- one in each league -- have 4 pitchers with an ERA+ of at least 100 (and qualify for the ERA title). The identities of the two teams may surprise you:
| Rk | Player | Age | Tm | Lg | GS | CG | SHO | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | AB | 2B | 3B | IBB | HBP | SH | SF | GDP | SB | CS | PO | BK | WP | Pit | Str | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Michael Pineda | 150 | 22 | SEA | AL | 15 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | .636 | 95.2 | 69 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 94 | 2.45 | 7 | 381 | 347 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .199 | .264 | .308 | .572 | 64 | 1446 | 989 |
| 19 | Jordan Zimmermann | 134 | 25 | WSN | NL | 15 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 94.2 | 86 | 34 | 30 | 19 | 67 | 2.85 | 4 | 384 | 356 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .242 | .282 | .343 | .625 | 77 | 1412 | 953 |
| 26 | Erik Bedard | 126 | 32 | SEA | AL | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | .444 | 83.0 | 70 | 33 | 27 | 25 | 80 | 2.93 | 9 | 337 | 310 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .226 | .286 | .371 | .657 | 87 | 1348 | 882 |
| 41 | Doug Fister | 116 | 27 | SEA | AL | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 110.1 | 108 | 41 | 39 | 24 | 70 | 3.18 | 6 | 452 | 416 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .260 | .307 | .385 | .692 | 97 | 1673 | 1126 |
| 46 | Felix Hernandez | 115 | 25 | SEA | AL | 17 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 | .571 | 121.1 | 102 | 49 | 43 | 39 | 118 | 3.19 | 7 | 499 | 449 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | .227 | .293 | .334 | .627 | 80 | 1890 | 1198 |
| 48 | John Lannan | 113 | 26 | WSN | NL | 16 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 92.2 | 89 | 37 | 35 | 35 | 50 | 3.40 | 8 | 395 | 350 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .254 | .329 | .374 | .703 | 99 | 1446 | 888 |
| 53 | Jason Marquis | 108 | 32 | WSN | NL | 15 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | .778 | 94.1 | 100 | 40 | 37 | 26 | 54 | 3.53 | 6 | 400 | 359 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .279 | .330 | .398 | .728 | 106 | 1402 | 866 |
| 62 | Livan Hernandez | 100 | 36 | WSN | NL | 17 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | .385 | 108.2 | 117 | 51 | 46 | 31 | 68 | 3.81 | 9 | 458 | 416 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .281 | .330 | .425 | .756 | 113 | 1677 | 1039 |
(The "Rk" column is their rank in ERA+ among all MLB qualifiers.)
Seattle's staff ERA+ is 114 this year, 3rd in the AL -- up from 100 and 8th last year. Their raw ERA has declined by 0.70 from last year, to 3.23, which would easily set a franchise record. Washington's ERA+ is 111, 5th in the NL, up from 97 and 11th in 2010; their raw ERA is down by 0.67 from last year, to 3.46 -- their best mark since 1992.
The Nationals (Expos) haven't had 4 qualifying pitchers of any caliber since 1992, 13 years before they left Montreal. And they haven't had a starter with an ERA+ over 130 since 2003, 2 years before their D.C. debut. They had just one qualifying pitcher last season.
Washington also has a solid bullpen, 5th in the NL with a 3.03 ERA. And unlike most recent years, the 'pen hasn't been overworked so far; they're right in the middle of the NL pack in relief innings.
Seattle's bullpen hasn't been spectacular (3.54 ERA, 6th in the AL), but they should be well-rested for the second half: The Mariners' rotation has thrown the most innings in the majors, an average of 6.6 IP per game through Sunday.
Last season, no team had 4 qualifiers with an ERA+ of at least 100. The last team with 5 such pitchers was the 2005 Cardinals, who won 100 games. Seattle could wind up with 5; Jason Vargas missed this list with a 95 ERA+, but he has the innings to qualify, has 2 shutouts this month, and had a 105 ERA+ last year.
What other pitching staffs have been surprisingly good this year? Do you think they can keep it up for a full season?
June 28th, 2011 at 12:27 am
"What other pitching staffs have been surprisingly good this year?"
JA, I don't know about the surprisingly part, but San Fran's pitchers have been pretty darn good, what with that anemic offence.
June 28th, 2011 at 12:28 am
@1
Oops, "offense". JA's proof-reading influence on me.
June 28th, 2011 at 12:37 am
Neil, I thought you were just being a loyal subject of the Crown. 🙂
Seriously, though -- I'm under the impression that British spelling still prevails in Canada; am I out of touch? It's been a while since I lived in Michigan and had the CBC as one of the few TV channels, back in the old "over-the-air" days....
June 28th, 2011 at 12:46 am
And by the way, "anemic" (anaemic?) doesn't even seem strong enough to capture the putridity of SF's attack. They're last in the majors at 3.40 R/G, behind even Oakland, Seattle and San Diego. As good as SF's pitching has been, the Giants have actually been outscored this year. They're beating their pythagorean record by 6 games, thanks to a 22-11 record in 1-run games.
I wish them the best, but I don't think the lowest-scoring team in baseball has ever won a championship.
June 28th, 2011 at 12:49 am
Wow, if Roy Oswalt had only pitched a few more innings, the Phillies would also qualify, although they would be far less surprising.
June 28th, 2011 at 12:52 am
@5, Max -- Yeah, by now I didn't think I really needed to type "P.S. But Philly has 3 great starters." Seems like that news has gotten around pretty well. 🙂
June 28th, 2011 at 12:58 am
Off-topic: 2-out HR by Danny Espinosa off Jordan Walden ties the Nats & Angels at 3-all in the 9th. Espinosa's 15 HRs is tops among all MLB second basemen. Counting the shots by Mike Morse (his 15th) and Ryan Zimmerman, the Nationals now have 75 HRs, 6th in the NL, and are on pace to top last year's total. How many saw that coming, with no Adam Dunn or even Adam LaRoche?
June 28th, 2011 at 1:00 am
@3
Yes, JA, British spelling still reigns in Canada. So when I post in BBRef I replace centre with center, theatre with theater, flavour with flavor, odour with odor etc.
Man, is there anything you don't know? 🙂
June 28th, 2011 at 1:09 am
ATL would be in as well (assume that Beachy doesn't have enough innings? - he just had another gem tonight). ERA+ of 183, 153, 118, 108 for Jurjens, Hanson, Beachy and Hudson.
Every bullpen regular has an ERA+ over 100, including Venters and O'Flaherty at 296 and 299 respectively.
June 28th, 2011 at 1:10 am
Come on, Neil, I'm a word nerd, after all....
So, can you think in both North-North American English and Middle-North American English? 🙂 Do you dream in British or Americanised (whoops!) spelling?
June 28th, 2011 at 1:14 am
@9, NRPS -- Atlanta's bullpen is sick. I remember going to a Braves-Mets game early last year, and coming away telling my buddy that Atlanta was going to contend on the strength of that bullpen alone. And they're even better this year.
June 28th, 2011 at 1:14 am
@JA/6 Of course not, no need to take away from Washington's and Seattle's impressive feats. I'll wait until the end of the season for the "OMG PHILLIES STARTERS HALLADAY/LEE/HAMELS ARE AWESOME" articles. Or at least tomorrow.
June 28th, 2011 at 1:17 am
Max -- I think you've just written the headline for every postseason series preview involving the Phils!
Good night, everyone. Carry on!
June 28th, 2011 at 1:19 am
Roy Whoswalt?
June 28th, 2011 at 1:50 am
Not surprised by Seattle's, but definitely surprised by Washington. If I was going to try to list the best rotations in the bigs, I would go through each team and scan through notable pitchers, and I don't think I would consider Lannan, Marquis or Hernandez the elder.
The Dodgers were supposed to be on the list, but Billingsley and Lilly have not performed up to par. I have a related question though. Clayton Kershaw has an ERA of 2.93 and a ERA+ of 123. This means that "average" ERA for a pitcher who has faced the teams he has in the parks he has is 3.60? Because if so, that's the lowest it's been in a while. It just seems like he's been better than a 123 ERA+, especially considering he put up a 130 last year.
June 28th, 2011 at 1:59 am
I thought the two were going to be Pittsburg and either Atlanta, Oakland, or Toronto. Pittsburg is actually as close as they can possibly be to being on it. They've played 77 games, so a pitcher needs 84.7 innings to qualify, and Jeff Karstens has 84 and two thirds innings. 84.2 innings must be treated as 84.666 innings mathematically, meaning that rounding is literally the difference between Pittsburg being on this list and not being on it.
Atlanta and Oakland have the ERA+ but not the innings, but Toronto just isn't close. Not sure what I was thinking there.
June 28th, 2011 at 2:43 am
Additionally, the 2003 Expos' ERA+ leader was none other than Livan Hernandez, who is back with the franchise and made this list 8 years later.
June 28th, 2011 at 2:44 am
sorry, this is, admittedly, a dumb comment, but (seriously), I can't believe it. Livan Hernandez, is still pitching.....let alone, still pitching for Washington??
WOW.
June 28th, 2011 at 3:56 am
Actually, I think Pittsburg should be on this list.
June 28th, 2011 at 4:29 am
It's worth noting that the Nationals have the 15th best K/9 (for starters) in the league, and the only one with an impressive rate is Tom Gorzelanny, sporting a 4.18 ERA.
June 28th, 2011 at 7:11 am
@Nash Bruce: Yes, the same Livan Hernandez who helped Florida beat Cleveland in the '97 World Series. Ironically, he's old enough to have been on the Indians staff when they won their last World Series title in '48 🙂
Seriously, he's often been one of the few consistently decent pitchers for the Nats over the years.
June 28th, 2011 at 8:08 am
livan hernandez' career record is 171-171 (that's a .500 w%, by the way). interestingly, he has exactly a .500 record for four of the franchises he's pitched for (WAS, SFG, FLA, COL). for the other three teams he's pitched for, he's no more than 2 games away from a .500 record: ARI 15-16, MIN 10-8, NYM 7-8.
June 28th, 2011 at 8:17 am
Yes, Livo is still with Washington, but he left in 2006 to pitch for Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado, and the New York Mets before returning to Washington in 2009.
June 28th, 2011 at 9:03 am
@ 18,
Hernandez also got lumped into the popular rumor that Latin Players were faking their real ages.
I forget the Atlanta SS who was pulled over with the wrong driving license. He was actually 4 years older than reported.
But I guess after 16 years, Livan - who is no Jack Lalane, was just a kid in '97 afterall.
June 28th, 2011 at 9:29 am
@22
So Livan is still 203-203 overall then. Nice, Zuke...positively Kirkjianesque!
June 28th, 2011 at 9:30 am
Oops...never mind. My bad. Still Kirkjianesque, though.
June 28th, 2011 at 9:37 am
No insinuations at all toward Hernandez. Anyone who pitches the EPHUS? pitch ( I don't know if that's the queen's English or Stengaleeze, but nonetheless love to see a 30 ft/58MPH breaking pitch.
But anyhow here is a small article about age changes in the dominican Republic.
I know Livan is a Cuban, but that, IMO, would make it all the more necessary to get out of that country. I remember the horror stories of how they treated Contreras' wife after he absconded.
They would regularly arrest her for prostitution, just to embarrass Cotrearas.
To his credit, he never backed down from defending her - he even brought to the attention of american media.
Yeah, I might say I was a few years younger to play baseball and leave poverty.
But this SS signed by the Nationals who said he was 16, when he was found to be 23, is a bit of a stretch. 7YEARS! wow! Who was the scout who fell for that. I have a bridge for him. But fairly the article implicates the corruption of all parties, even Nationals scouts who paid for fake school records.
http://fans.mapleleafs.nhl.com/topic/39041/t/Nationals-Prospect-is-a-FAKE-33-33-33.html
I hope we clean up that part of baseball. Carlos Beltran, who has endlessly hurt my Blue and Orange feelings (colours) since he took strike three in 2006, has found redemption and I am extremely proud of his PR baseball academy. His approach to education, giving the kids equipment, and a preparedness to survive with a big paycheck in the US with out derailing their career (see Bourgeois). His push to have PR and latin players have the same right to enter the draft, or get the money of the asian players, is praiseworthy to say the least, especially when we know he will take a bath on the academy for a few years, and may never see a dollar. Hopefully other players and especially MLB subsidize his endeavor. I know fellow PRer Pudge Rod is lending help and money, both just done for national pride and the good of the game.Admirable. Applause.
If Slamming Slimey Sosa had built a BB academy in the DR instead of the Sammy Sosa shopping mall, where he sold the poorest community in the world things they couldn't afford or need. Maybe we wouldn't see what is happening now... by the way, has anyone seen his new bleached face-Michael jackson face.
Not to break hearts, but Pujols is closer to 35 than 31. Also, after endlessly hearing about his devout Catholic leanings, I wonder why he wears a $500,000 platinum chain during games.
He has the right, but that's not pious.
June 28th, 2011 at 10:19 am
@19, Bip -- According to the B-R stats, Pittsburgh does have 5 starters who qualify for the ERA title -- the standard is 1 IP per team game, by the way -- but only 3 with an ERA+ of at least 100. Charlie Morton is at 99.
No doubt that 100 was an arbitrary cutoff point, and the Bucs' rotation might be as good as Washington's overall (although I don't think Morton is as good as his ERA) -- but I have to set a cutoff somewhere.
June 28th, 2011 at 10:20 am
@16, 19 Bip,
The Pirates popped into my head too, because they have done well and it certainly would be a surprise to see them on the list.
Off topic: It's Pittsburgh, with an h. Does any other major American city get misspelled so often?
June 28th, 2011 at 10:29 am
The Giants are very close to having all 5 making it, and probably did before Sanchez's injury and Bumgarner's blowup over the last two weeks:
Tim Lincecum: 105.1 IP, 117 ERA+
Matt Cain: 106.1 IP, 115 ERA+
Ryan Vogelsong: 72.2 IP, 200 ERA+ (!)
Madison Bumgarner: 91.1 IP, 96 ERA+
Jonathan Sanchez: 89.2 IP, 97 ERA+
June 28th, 2011 at 10:32 am
(Followup re: Pittsburgh)
In a broader sense, Bip makes a good point: It's been a long time since the Pirates had such a stable rotation. Their top 5 have started all but 2 games so far, and all have at least 84.2 IP.
The last time the Bucs had even 4 qualifying starters was 1997 (they had 5 that year). Last year, they had just 1 qualifier, and their starters' ERA was 5.28, over half a run higher than any other NL club. This year, it's 3.65, 5th in the NL.
I don't think their rate stats support an ERA that good, but even to be average would constitute a huge improvement. So, well done, Buccos!
June 28th, 2011 at 10:35 am
What other staffs have been surprisingly good? Seriously, did anyone out there really think that Bartolo Colon would have a 3.10 ERA right now or that Freddy Garcia would be at 3.30?
June 28th, 2011 at 10:41 am
Oops, they never had all 5 since Vogelsong is yet to qualify for ERA title. Assuming he stays healthy and effective, that should change shortly, however.
More interestingly, all 5 SFG starters are over 95 ERA+ (min 70 IP, so Vogelsong qualifies). The only other team to meet that? The Yankees (Sabathia, Burnett, Colon, Garcia, Nova. That surprised me.
June 28th, 2011 at 11:04 am
@29 @31
Donburgh and LA, interesting about the Pirates' pitching staff ......
Pat Tabler, part of the Blue Jays television broadcast crew, was talking about the success of the Pirates starters this year on a local sports radio talk show this morning.
He was making the points that they are "pitching to contact" and they have the fewest pitchers per inning of any starting staff. (Inference being, they are very economical with their pitches.)
I'm looking forward to seeing the Pirates the next three nights, at least on local television. They are undoubtedly a feel-good story.
June 28th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
Re: Livan Hernandez -- It would be fitting if, by the end of his career, his top Similarity Score was with Bobo Newsom:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernali01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/newsobo01.shtml
(Well, Bobo was somewhat better, but I'm still clinging to the concept.)
June 28th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
@34, Neil L. -- "pitching to contact" -- In U.S. English, we call that "losing." 🙂
June 28th, 2011 at 1:23 pm
@ 27 "His push to have PR and latin players have the same right to enter the draft, or get the money of the asian players"
This is one thing I still don't understand. Why is the draft only for American players? It seems like no other sport does it this way.
June 28th, 2011 at 1:41 pm
@37, Rich -- That's an excellent question, and I don't have the answer. I think it's simply because that's what was negotiated in the collective bargaining agreement -- but why that is so, I have no clue.
BTW, Canadian-born players are also subject to the MLB draft.
June 28th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
One more thing about the Mariner's rotation:
All 5 of their starters are in the top 17 in the AL in WHIP (top 36 in the Majors out of 113 qualifiers).
AL teams that don't have a single qualifying starter with a better WHIP than Jason Vargas: Minnesota, New York, Oakland, Kansas City, and Baltimore.
All 5 starters have an ERA under 4.00, and if they finish the season that way, they will be the first team sine the 1991 St. Louis Cardinals.
4 of the M's starters (all but Vargas) are in the top 13 in the AL in SO/BB.
All 5 starters have more innings pitched than hits allowed.
The only starter who has allowed more than 1 HR/9 is Bedard (1.1, and he allowed 2 in last night's 3-1 loss).
Also, the defense hasn't been as sharp as last year, and the offense is comparably bad, but they are very rarely out of a game and you feel good about whoever is out there starting the game.
The M's are also the only team carrying just 11 pitchers on their roster. There are no LOOGYs or ROOGYs. Eric Wedge has probably made the fewest mound visits of any manager in baseball because when a pitcher gets sent out, they are out there for at least that inning (unless they start getting knocked around, which isn't all that often). Its just amazing that Fister is 3-8 and Bedard is just 4-6. Their "offense" should be thrown in jail for such a crime!
June 28th, 2011 at 2:52 pm
@36
Grrrrrr, JA, stop twisting my Canadian English words! 🙂
I thought Tabler's little phrase "pitching to contact" sounded really impressive, even insightful. I hadn't heard it used before in the context of explaining the success of a pitcher or pitching staff.
But, in light of your comment maybe it is a euphemism for giving up a lot of hits. I think it's safe to say the Pirates staff has exceeded expectations this year. Why?
June 28th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
I think its also funny that the Mariner's starters went 5-25 batting in interleague play (.200 batting average) while the rest of the team is hitting .227. The only starter without a hit was Vargas, and he had just 2 AB.
Last year, the Mariner's pitchers failed to record a single hit!
June 28th, 2011 at 3:09 pm
@41
Genis26, lol, you can hardly tell the M's regulars from their pitchers at the plate.
BTW, nice break down of the Mariner's pitching success this season @39.
June 28th, 2011 at 3:10 pm
@40, Neil -- Timely piece by David Schoenfield last night on the myth of an upside to "pitching to contact."
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12952/key-to-verlanders-success-strikeouts
I don't have a pat answer to why Pittsburgh's rotation has exceeded expectations, but I'd think there's a good bit of luck involved. Just looking at their rate of baserunners allowed, it seems that something has to give -- if they don't cut down on their WHIP, their ERA is almost certain to spike.
Jeff Karstens is the only one in their rotation with a truly good WHIP, but even he has trouble brewing: He's yielded 14 HRs in 85 IP, but only 1 with anyone on base.
June 28th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
@36 @40
As for "pitching to contact," supposedly that's what Jair Jurrjens is doing. I tend to think it means "doesn't (or can't) get strikeouts." I've heard that pitchers don't really want to get strikeouts because they require more pitches, but I find that hard to believe. Pitchers are going to throw strikes with their best stuff, and if they get two strikes on a batter, which should happen often if they're throwing them, then they definitely would rather strike out the guy than risk putting a ball in play that could go for a lucky hit or an error.
Pittsburgh (with an h, thanks) has the fewest strikeouts in the NL, but both Correia and Malholm have one of the best pitches per inning rates. Malholm and Karstens have unsustainably low BABIP, so once that goes up, pitching to contact may not seem like such a great idea. Correia, however, has a decent walk rate, and his BABIP isn't that lucky, and as a result his ERA+ is 102. That is something he could definitely maintain.
But overall, I think Pittsburgh's success is more on the surface. They just have a staff of decent-but-not-great pitchers, and this conversation is one that rewards just that. Philadelphia gets no bonus for having 3 amazing pitchers, because making this list requires 4.
June 28th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
In my comment @43, I forgot to link to the Schoenfield piece on the importance of K rate; here it is below:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12952/key-to-verlanders-success-strikeouts
June 28th, 2011 at 3:25 pm
His push to have PR and latin players have the same right to enter the draft, or get the money of the asian players
I don't understand what you are saying.
Puerto Rican players are already subject to the draft. Other Latino players are not. So does he want them all in the draft, or all out?
And does he think there is a bias in the money Latin players receive compared to Asians? Most Latin players are being signed as teenagers who are years away from the majors. The Japanese players who come over have many years of JP major league performance under their belts. When older Latin players have come on the market (Jose Contreras), they do get big contracts.
June 28th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
I would predict the way that "pitching to contact" shows up in statistics is extra base hits and home runs, for the most part. I pitch, and I learned how to throw a sinker this year. When I throw a sinker, I am not expecting guys to swing and miss at it. But I will throw it on a first pitch often or if I fall behind a guy. Once I get ahead 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2, I start going to my harder stuff (4-seam, slider). But when I throw the sinker, I am pitching to contact. I never walk guys. I think I've walked 4 guys this year in 6 starts or so. So with the sinker, I am not trying to pick at the corners or anything, I'm just throwing a sinker and trying to keep it low to avoid a walk in an unfavorable count and minimize how hard the ball is hit. The goal is: avoid a walk, give my defense more of a chance to make a play with a weaker hit ball. Ways I think this could show up in statistics if a pitcher does this well: less extra base hits, obviously less walks, better GB/FB ratio, maybe better range stats for infielders? There is something to pitching to contact other than just babip's, and if you do it really well (extreme ground ball pitchers) we know that it keeps BABIP down.
June 28th, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Ground ball pitchers actually tend to have higher BABIPs than fly ballers (but give up fewer extra base hits).
June 28th, 2011 at 4:54 pm
@47, Zach -- Good point. There always have been some pitchers who had sustained success in spite of a subpar K rate.
Usually, those pitchers (a) had extremely good control, (b) kept the ball down, to minimize HRs and maximize GDPs, and (c) didn't have quite the degree of success that the high-K guys did, over a period of years.
June 28th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
And are lefty (to hold runners).
June 28th, 2011 at 6:00 pm
Zach's post @47 reminded me of one of my sharpest disagreements with a Bill James argument.
In his Historical Baseball Abstract, James had an essay titled "Bird, Thou Never Wert," asserting that Mark Fidrych was destined to decline sharply even if injuries had not ended his career so young, because of his low strikeout rate.
Piffle!
My counterargument: For the years 1976-77, among the 83 pitchers with at least 300 IP, Fidrych ranked:
-- 4th in lowest BB/9 (1.77)
-- 2nd in lowest HR/9 (0.38)
-- 3rd in lowest slugging average (.310)
-- 9th in highest GIDP/9 (1.01)
And base stealers were thrown out 47% of the time.
Fidrych may have had some "hit luck" in compiling his 2.34 ERA in 1976; his BAbip that year was .250, against a league average of .280. But he had no such luck in '77; his .302 BAbip was 15 points above the league mark, yet he was almost as effective as in his ROY season, with a 149 ERA+ that would have been 3rd in the AL. In that abbreviated '77 season (11 starts, 81 IP), his control was even better than the year before (1.3 BB/9), his HR rate lower (0.2 HR/9), his GIDP rate higher ... and even his K rate was up to near the league average.
To borrow one of Bill's pet phrases: What was going to happen to turn The Bird's grounders into home runs and doubles? What was going to make him start walking people?
P.S. I think this is my favorite Fidrych game, for a number of reasons, even though it wasn't a shutout: against the Yankees; 3rd straight CG with no walks; 12th straight start without a HR; career-best 9 strikeouts; the top of the 1st inning; and the thought of 47,000 fans jammed into Tiger Stadium for a Monday night game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET197706200.shtml
June 28th, 2011 at 8:00 pm
@47
Zach, may I ask, at what level of baseball do you pitch?
June 28th, 2011 at 8:02 pm
@49 Yeah, I definitely agree. I would say the pitching to contact strategy is situational, often even just within the at-bat. I don't think anybody goes 0-2 on a hitter and throws a sinker at the bottom of the zone and thinks ground ball. As a Tiger fan, I've heard a lot of talk about Justin Verlander doing it this year, especially more recently, and from watching him I believe this to be true. Without guys on base, and especially early in games, it seems that he's been happy to get a ground ball early in a count. This keeps him from getting himself into big jams with walks and hard hit balls. When the bloops and rollers do get through, then he tunes it up and goes after the hitter with his best strikeout stuff. I noticed this adjustment after he had given up a lot of home runs early in the year. There was a game against the White Sox where he was untouchable, but he fell behind a few hitters with nobody on base and then they sold out for one pitch, got it, and hit it out of the park. Since he threw the no-hitter, he hasn't been relentlessly (perhaps recklessly) going after every hitter at all times.
Look at his walk rate right now: 1.9 BB/9. Career, it's 2.9, and in his best year to this point (2009) it was 2.4. His K/9 rate is 8.7...still at the top of the charts, but not close to his career high rate of 10.1 in 2009. His HR/9 is 0.8, right at his career mark, but that's after giving up a ton early. Expect this to drop dramatically through the year if he keeps pitching the way he has been. And his ERA is going to stay below 3.00 if he continues his approach.
Pitching to contact obviously seems silly in an absolute sense, but I believe all of the best pitchers incorporate it situationally. Verlander has had the best stuff in baseball the last few years, in my opinion, but has never finished in the Top 5 in ERA in the American League.
June 28th, 2011 at 8:08 pm
@52
Hey Neil, I'm just in a 19U inter-city league right now. Nothing really serious. I played high school and played travel throughout my life, but not on elite teams or anything. Next year I'll probably try out for the club team at U of Michigan.
June 28th, 2011 at 8:20 pm
@44
Bip, I think I digested all the good points in your post. However, I would still ask why Pittsburgh's no-name pitching rotation has kept the team above 0.500?
Bip, are there pitching coaches who have preached "pitching to contact". Clearly, you have to have good defense and a big ball park.
June 28th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
@ 37, Mustachioed Rep and JA,
About my #27 comment.
I wasn't sure about PR players being subject to the draft. I know we are a common wealth and they can vote, travel without a visa, etc, but I guess I just thought they were lumped in with the rest of the Caribbean and latin countries. But fresh off Sandy Alderson's investigation of money skimming and Ozzie Guillen's - from the heart - tirade about the inequities of latin players and their mistreatment from agents and scouts, the allure and accessibility of PEDS, made me think of Livan and many of the Cuban player's who had to literally escape their country.
Speaking of strong staffs - I can't help but mentioning the1985-86 Mets.
'86 NYMs had 4 starters with 200+ IP & ERA +s of 126/127/140/102, averaged 183 SO, all gave up less than 7 hits per 9.
They also had their 4 main relievers with an ERA+ of 115 or better.
and add an unpolished Rick Aguilera with a 93 ERA+ in 140 IP.
The entire staff had an ERA+ of 115, five 14 game winners and two 20 save guys.
Welcome back Davey Johnson.
June 28th, 2011 at 9:39 pm
@56
Duke, those were the golden years of Doc Gooden, when everything/anything was still possible.
Unbelievable Mets' teams.
June 28th, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Duke, I think PR players became part of the draft around the early '90s? Some people blame that for PR falling behind DR and now Venezuela in terms of producing MLB talent.
***
I'm sure all pitching coaches talk to their pitchers about pitching to contact, trusting the defense in certain situations. Good posts by Zach about it being a situational strategy. I don't know whether any coaches swear by it as a strict philosophy and actually try to get their pitchers to *stop* striking guys out. Some people** blame Mel Stottlemyre for Doc Gooden's downfall, trying to get him to get more grounders and fewer Ks. But there are so many other factors involved (the drug use, his body filling out***) it's hard to say why he really declined.
**I'm blaming those people for a lot of blaming today.
***This famous photo is exaggerated, but I think it is illustrative. The young, prime Gooden was so thin that his body was like a whip delivering the ball. As he got older and naturally put on weight, he lost that suppleness and it may have cost him something in his delivery.
http://www.krakov.net/si/images/1985/0415_large.jpg
June 28th, 2011 at 10:59 pm
@43
JA, a really good closer will make your starters look good. Look at how Hanrahan slammed the door on the Jays tonight for his 23rd save.
June 29th, 2011 at 12:30 am
@59, Neil -- Yeah, I was really impressed by Hanrahan when he faced the Mets recently. Seemed a different pitcher than when he was with Washington -- better command.
Hey, at least Joey Bats is back on track!
June 29th, 2011 at 8:36 am
Since I'm a Yankees fan I'll mention the Yankees.
Colon 131 (although with only 78.1 IP he will fail to be qualified in a couple days)
Sabathia 125
Garcia 123
Burnett 98 (a quality start tonight should get him on the right side of 100)
Nova 96 (If he can duplicate what he did in Cincinnati he too will be on the right side of 100).
Just had to point out that the "head case", "junkballing vet", "hot-dog eating contest contestant" and youngster have done okay so far. If the offense weren't so consistently feast-or-famine the first 6-7 weeks the Yanks would be first to 50 wins.
June 29th, 2011 at 10:30 am
@61, Fireworks -- Did you really use the words "A.J. Burnett" and "quality start" in the same sentence? 🙂
Oh, alright ... he does have 7 QS this season, in 16 starts.
But wake me up when he has a scoreless game; that'll be real news. 🙂
June 30th, 2011 at 10:42 am
Aaaaand there we go. Yankees make this list until after they play their next game when Colon no longer qualifies.
June 30th, 2011 at 11:18 am
You get the last laugh, Fireworks ... for now.
July 1st, 2011 at 6:31 am
Well, Burnett got to 100, so the yankees are on your list until Colon drops off qualifying, now.
July 3rd, 2011 at 7:34 am
John Autin I would like to point out that not only is Burnett at 100 and Nova at 99, but that Colon now qualifies again. 🙂
July 3rd, 2011 at 7:37 am
Of course Vargas just gave Seattle a 5th guy and Gorzelanny is barely over 100 to be Washington's 5th but needs to make 2 or 3 more starts before he'll qualify.
July 3rd, 2011 at 10:39 am
Fireworks, the baseball gods have noted your fairness via the quick followup, and will withhold their thunderbolts of vengeance. 🙂