Off-season predictions
Posted by Andy on November 9, 2009
My predictions this year haven't been all that good.
On July 7th, I predicted the playoff teams here. I really missed on the AL East teams, prediction that the Red Sox would win the division and the Rays would win the Wild Card. I had the Yankees missing the playoffs (when in fact they had the best record in baseball...oops). I also missed the AL West where I picked the Rangers, which I'm less embarrassed about, as well as the Giants winning the NL Wild Card (actually won by the Rockies.) I did get all the other division winners correct, though.
Anyway, regardless of my lack of success there, I'm going to make some bold predictions for this off-season. These are based on only my own gut feel and not any inside information. If I am correct on 2 or 3 of these, I'll be proud.
1) The Blue Jays will not trade Roy Halladay during this off-season
The reason for this is pretty simple--trading for one year of a star pitcher is very expensive in terms of talent the acquiring team must surrender and most teams would prefer to wait until the trade deadline to make sure they are in the race before giving up all that talent. The only thing worse than not making the playoffs is trading for a guy like Halladay, giving up your 3 best prospects, and THEN not making the playoffs. Oops. I don't think the Blue Jays will find any takers during the off-season unless the new team is allowed to negotiate a contract extension with Halladay, something that now-fired GM J. P. Ricciardi would not allow at the 2009 trade deadline. Make no mistake--Halladay will be traded by the trading deadline in 2010, just not before the season starts.
2) The Red Sox will dump either David Ortiz or Mike Lowell and sign/acquire two of the following: Jason Bay (free agent), Matt Holliday (free agent), Adrian Gonzalez (trade from San Diego)
When I say "dump" I mean trade or release. Jason Bay did a great job filling in for Manny Ramirez but is now a free agent. And while Ortiz and Lowell had excellent periods during 2009 both are showing significant deterioration. The Red Sox resemble the Yankees circa 2006, with some very old players (Lowell, Wakefield, Varitek), inconsistent starting pitchers (Matsuzaka, Beckett), an enigmatic youngster (Buchholz), a few strong younger players (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Bard) but an aging core team. The other way in which the Red Sox resemble the Yankees is making the playoffs but getting bounced.
The time has come for this team to get younger and they need to start by getting rid of some of their older, unpredictable talent. They might get nothing in return but this is still a better strategy than standing pat and perhaps getting little or no production from guys on the decline who may be injured. The 3-4 hitters for this team next year are going to be some combination of Bay, Holliday, and Gonzalez. With Jed Hoyer, a former assistant GM in Boston, now running the show in San Diego, the trade of Gonzalez to Boston is as much of a lock as any possible trade. Hoyer knows the Red Sox propsects and there is a trustful relationship between the GMs.
3. The Yankees will not re-sign Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon
I'm going to hedge my bet right away and say that there's a chance that they'll bring back Damon, but if so, only on a one-year contract. Let's start with Matsui. He's been an outstanding player for the Yankees since they acquired him in 2003. His performance has been excellent and, as with virtually all MLB players born in Asia, he is professional and very hard-working. (Note to Americans...we can all learn something here.) He has two big knocks, however: 1) He's going to be 36 before the All-Star break in 2010 and has had serious injuries in 2 of the last 4 seasons and 2) At this point he can only play DH. Having given Jorge Posada a long contract, the Yankees need to give him probably half the season at DH next year. Look for Francisco Cervelli to catch more. As A-rod and Jeter age (seasonal ages of 34 and 36 next year) they will also benefit from some time at DH. The Yankees simply need to get younger and need to protect Posada.
In the case of Damon, the question will probably come down to whether Xavier Nady will be back in 2010, ready to take over in the outfield. Damon has been outstanding offensively in 2008-2009 but is not a good defensive player. If Nady can take over, I think the Yankees will hand him Damon's spot and move on. Keep in mind that 4 of the Yankees 9 positional starts this year were already 35 or older: Matsui, Damon, Posada, and Jeter. We know that Posada and Jeter aren't going anywhere.
4. The Phillies are going to make some major changes to their pitching staff
What a mess for the Phillies. Brad Lidge was horrendous and Ryan Madson wasn't much better. Cole Hamels was enigmatic both on and off the field. Jamie Moyer was inconsistent but more bad than good and is signed for another year. Their best starting pitcher in the regular season, J. A. Happ, started only one game in the playoffs and pitched a total of 6 innings over 7 appearances. And finally, Pedro Martinez, a guy with no future in Philadelphia, started 2 games in the World Series.
As much as I loved seeing Pedro pitch, it's very odd for a defending champion to rely so heavily on a scrap-heap kind of player. That's what happens, though, when a guy like Hamels becomes unreliable and so many starters from the previous season (Myers, Kendrick, and Moyer) are not available to start in the playoffs.
Anyway, oddly for a team that's been to 2 straight World Series, the only thing that is certain for next year is that Cliff Lee will be the opening day starter. Who else will be in that rotation or that bullpen remains a mystery. I would not be surprised to see Lidge bumped to middle relief and Myers (a free agent) back as the closer. I also wouldn't be shocked if Hamels isn't back with the team next year.
5. There are going to be some bizarre free-agent signings
This year's free agent class is one of the most interesting for a long time. It's the first one taking place after the slow economy hit baseball really hard. This past season was the first full one since the U.S. economy has been so bad and there were big drops in revenue from ticket sales, advertising, and merchandising. Teams are going to have less to spend. On top of this, the class of free agents is one of the weakest, talent-wise, in a long time. John Lackey is the best starting pitcher available and he's a solid #2 type guy.
I predict that during this off-season we'll see some better name free agents go to some smaller market teams and a little bit more balance then we've seen in the past. Don't get me wrong...the Yankees and Red Sox have the AL East and AL Wild Card for 2010 locked up already. But because there aren't as many impact players available and all revenues are down, I think we might see teams like the Royals and Pirates dip into free agency and get some of the better players for smaller dollars.
November 9th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Wow, what a whopper of an article. Where do I even start?
"With Jed Hoyer, a former assistant GM in Boston, now running the show in San Diego, the trade of Gonzalez to Boston is as much of a lock as any possible trade"
Right, so the Red Sox will just ship 6 of their incredibly overrated pitching prospects plus Lars Anderson who has been exposed for Adrian Gonzalez. Ok, that's a lock.
They could trade for him, but there is no way it is a "lock." There's also no way they're dumping Ortiz. He showed enough life in the second half, plus it'd be bad for PR. I used to think the Red Sox simply didn't care about PR after running cornerstones like Nomar, Pedro, and Manny out of the city, but after the Varitek mess and continuing to run Ortiz out there when he was below replacement level has made me reconsider.
"In the case of Damon, the question will probably come down to whether Xavier Nady will be back in 2010, ready to take over in the outfield."
This is a joke, right? There's no way Nady is coming back. He probably wants to start or have the chance to start, and he frankly is not good enough to be starting on the Yankees.
LF for the Yankees is basically down to 3 options
1. Damon back for a year
2. Sign Holliday
3. Trade for a guy like Josh Willingham
If Nady comes back he'll be a bench guy. That's it.
"I would not be surprised to see Lidge bumped to middle relief and Myers (a free agent) back as the closer"
Myers. As in BRETT Myers? The guy Ruben Amaro told would not be back on the team in 2010, the guy who ha a 4.84 ERA, 6.14 FIP, and a -0.5 WAR? That's right, negative .5. No chance. If they do anything they'll grab some cheap relievers and make Madson or Lidge the closer.
November 9th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
I didn't suggest that the Red Sox would send their 6 best prospects to the Padres. Hoyer knows the prospects and it makes it easier for them to do a deal. History has shown numerous other examples of guys moving from one organization to another and having it facilitate a trade.
You cite a lot of stats but they are cherry picked. In Nady's last full season (2008) he had an OPS+ of 128 in 148 games. With production like that, he could be a starting corner outfielder on many teams. Moreover, these decisions are not only stat-based.
November 9th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
"Don't get me wrong...the Yankees and Red Sox have the AL East and AL Wild Card for 2010 locked up already."
No argument on that point, although there is the chance that the Red Sox age catches up to them.
"I predict that during this off-season we'll see some better name free agents go to some smaller market teams and a little bit more balance then we've seen in the past."
I predict the opposite will happen. The worsening economy hurt the small and mid market teams much more than the big boys. I think we'll be seeing the Yankees-Sox yearly one-up-manship result in a bunch of 2nd tier guys getting 1st tier money. The smaller market teams will once again scavenge through what's left and offer 3rd tier guys 4th tier money.
"But because there aren't as many impact players available and all revenues are down, I think we might see teams like the Royals and Pirates dip into free agency and get some of the better players for smaller dollars."
Basically, here's how I see it. Every team needs players. The large market teams will battle amongst themselves for the best players available (no matter if they're great, good or average). The small market teams who can normally join into one of these bidding wars each year by offsetting the pay difference with the addition of years, have even less money to work with this time around. The fact that the free agent class is so weak means that everybody is going to get paid more than they're worth. There's even less of a chance of getting a steal this year. I foresee the parity gap growing.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Nady didn't have TJ surgery until August or something. He's not going to be ready for 2010, if he plays at all next year. I think the Yankees may have screwed him. He got hurt in April but they kept trying to find a way around the surgery, hoping to get him back, before giving up. He'll be a marginal corner OF on the wrong side of 30 with no contract who hasn't played in over a year. Good luck to him.
Boston and NY have nothing locked up. The Yankees have a lot of older players who could all decline too. Tampa Bay still has a nice group of players and more on the way. Baltimore has a bunch of hitters entering their primes; if their young pitchers should all manage success next season (unlikely), who knows? I can't even predict Toronto since they have about 37 pitchers on the DL and I'm not sure who's coming back and in what condition.
November 9th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
The Phillies will try to make a play for Zach Greinke. It's not like the Royals will ever be able to pay him what he deserves. Whenever they develop a star, they get rid of him. See also, Johnny Damon or Carlos Beltran.
November 9th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
I think the success of the Rays depends virtually entirely on what happens with their starting pitchers going forward. Kazmir was a bust and is gone. But what will happen with Shields, Garza, Niemann, Price, and Sonnanstine? I was hoping to see these guys perform better as compared to their 2008 seasons. Only Niemann improved and the others did anywhere from a little worse to a lot worse. Not a great sign going forward.
On offense, the Rays are young but not as young as they used to be. Pena is 31 and next year Barltlett will be 30, Gross with be 30, Zobrist will be 29, and oh yeah Burrell will be 33. Not too old by any stretch, but not the spring chickens they once were.
As long as they have such high payrolls, the Yankees and Sox have to be the favorites. As was proven in 2008 they won't win every year but I can't see any reason not to pick them 1-2 next year and every year in the foreseeable future.