National League MVP
Posted by Andy on September 25, 2007
UPDATE 3: I'm extending the voting until the end of the day on Tuesday for all you Matt Holliday lovers.
UPDATE 2: I'm extending the voting until the end of the day on Monday
UPDATE: please place your votes by noon on Monday (see below for instructions)
I think the National League MVP is one of the more interesting seasonal award races (although I don't like these awards all that much because I think the most deserving candidate rarely wins--which is one big reason why I like that Baseball-Reference.com lists shares of such awards--for example Eddie Murray is 21st career with 3.33 MVP shares despite never winning one.)
Anyway, as near as I can see it, here are the leading candidates for the award, in no particular order:
Chipper Jones
Matt Holiday
Chase Utley
Hanley Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
David Wright
Prince Fielder
Jimmy Rollins
Adam Dunn
Ryan Howard
Jose Reyes
Certainly many other guys (including Uggla, Pujols, Byrnes, and Brandon Phillips) deserve a vote, but I think these are the only viable candidates to actually win the award.
I'm curious to see who you would vote for to win this award. Please fill out the ballot below (cut-and-paste it into a comment and fill in your votes, which can be any eligible players, not necessarily on the list above.) As with the real voting, you are required to vote for at least the top 3 and can vote for up to the top 10.
I'll tabulate the results and we can compare it to the real voting when the time comes. Try to pick with your baseball brain and not your fan heart.
Ballot:
1st place (14 points):
2nd place (9 points):
3rd place (8 points):
4th place (7 points):
5th place (6 points):
6th place (5 points):
7th place (4 points):
8th place (3 points):
9th place (2 points):
10th place (1 point):
September 25th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
1st place (14 points): Matt Holiday
2nd place (9 points): Jimmy Rollins
3rd place (8 points): David Wright
4th place (7 points): Chase Utley
5th place (6 points): Prince Fielder
6th place (5 points): Jose Reyes
7th place (4 points): Chipper Jones
8th place (3 points): Ryan Howard
9th place (2 points): Aaron Rowand
10th place (1 point): Albert Pujols
September 25th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
Andy, can I switch Rollins and Holliday, and then slide Utley below Chipper? Sorry!
September 25th, 2007 at 2:44 pm
Post a new list. I will delete your old one.
September 25th, 2007 at 2:56 pm
1st place (14 points): David Wright
2nd place (9 points): Jimmy Rollins
3rd place (8 points): Matt Holliday
4th place (7 points): Albert Pujols
5th place (6 points): Hanley Ramirez
6th place (5 points): Miguel Cabrera
7th place (4 points): Chipper Jones
8th place (3 points): Chase Utley
9th place (2 points): Aaron Rowand
10th place (1 point): Troy Tulowitzki
September 25th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
1st place (14 points): Jimmy Rollins
2nd place (9 points): David Wright
3rd place (8 points): Matt Holliday
4th place (7 points): Chipper Jones
5th place (6 points): Prince Fielder
6th place (5 points): Chase Utley
7th place (4 points): Hanley Ramirez
8th place (3 points): Ryan Howard
9th place (2 points): Albert Pujols
10th place (1 point): Jake Peavy
September 25th, 2007 at 4:55 pm
I tend to give bonus points to players whose teams make the playoffs, so I'd rather hold off until the races are decided. If the season ended today, Wright would be #1 on my ballot.
September 25th, 2007 at 5:05 pm
I'll take votes up until the day after the season ends...so do come back and vote then.
Although to be honest, I find it staggering that it matters at this point. If Wright, in the Mets' last 6 games, has 3 HR and 8 RBI, but the Mets lose the division to the Phillies and don't make the playoffs, would you not vote for him then?
September 25th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
1st place (14 points): Jimmy Rollins
2nd place (9 points): Matt Holliday
3rd place (8 points): Jake Peavy
4th place (7 points): Hanley Ramirez
5th place (6 points): Jose Reyes
6th place (5 points): David Wright
7th place (4 points): Chase Utley
8th place (3 points): Ryan Braun
9th place (2 points): Albert Pujols
10th place (1 point): Chipper Jones
September 25th, 2007 at 8:55 pm
1st place (14 points): Matt Holliday
2nd place (9 points): David Wright
3rd place (8 points): Ryan Howard
4th place (7 points): Jimmy Rollins
5th place (6 points): Jose Reyes
6th place (5 points): Prince Fielder
7th place (4 points): Ryan Braun
8th place (3 points): Chipper Jones
9th place (2 points): Miguel Cabrera
10th place (1 point): Albert Pujols
September 26th, 2007 at 12:43 am
1st place (14 points):David Wright
2nd place (9 points):Matt Holliday
3rd place (8 points):Prince Fielder
4th place (7 points):Hanley Ramirez
5th place (6 points):Chase Utley
6th place (5 points):Jake Peavy
7th place (4 points):Albert Pujols
8th place (3 points):Miguel Cabrera
9th place (2 points):Jimmy Rollins
10th place (1 point):Ryan Howard
September 26th, 2007 at 7:24 am
1st place (14 points): Matt Holliday
2nd place (9 points): Jake Peavy
3rd place (8 points): David Wright
4th place (7 points): Prince Fielder
5th place (6 points): Jimmy Rollins
6th place (5 points): Ryan Howard
7th place (4 points): Hanley Ramirez
8th place (3 points): Jose Reyes
9th place (2 points): Miguel Cabrera
10th place (1 point): Chase Utley
September 26th, 2007 at 9:26 am
My voting will reflect the fact that most people overrate 1B/LF/RF and don't pay attention to fielding as much as they should. I'll also say I haven't run any numbers yet and give the award to the best player.
1st place (14 points): David Wright
2nd place (9 points): Chase Utley
3rd place (8 points): Jake Peavy
4th place (7 points): Albert Pujols
5th place (6 points): Hanley Ramirez
6th place (5 points): Jimmy Rollins
7th place (4 points): Matt Holliday
8th place (3 points): Chipper Jones
9th place (2 points): Aaron Rowand
10th place (1 point): Prince Fielder
(Adam Dunn is my biggest man-crush, but his fielding should keep him miles away from this MVP list.)
September 26th, 2007 at 10:10 am
1st place (14 points): Matt Holliday
2nd place (9 points): Jimmy Rollins
3rd place (8 points): Jake Peavy
4th place (7 points): Hanley Ramirez
5th place (6 points): Prince Fielder
6th place (5 points): David Wright
7th place (4 points): Miguel Cabrera
8th place (3 points): Chipper Jones
9th place (2 points): Takashi Saito
10th place (1 point): Carlos Lee
September 26th, 2007 at 10:17 am
I cannot cast my ballot until the regular season is over. But in the meantime, I did a little research regarding diversification of 1st place MVP voting. Since expansion (1961), there have been three instances of no player getting 10 or more 1st place votes *and* five players getting 2 or more first place votes: 2003 AL, 1999 AL and 1989 AL. In the 1977 AL season 11 different players got at least one 1st place vote; in the 1979 NL season 8 different players got at least one 1st place vote.
This NL MVP result might have the most diversification of 1st place voting since 1979 - or at least since 1998 when four different players got at least three 1st place votes.
September 26th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
I'm with Sky re: fielding and position. I had Russ Martin, Carlos Beltran, Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips higher than most sane people might (they didn't make my top 10 though).
Saito's having one of those all-time great closer seasons, but I can't put him in the running when he's only got like 60 IP.
Also, I agree with Andy on the final standings. If it's this close now, and the final playoff teams are decided in the last 2 or 3 games, how could that possibly matter more than statistics? So if Chipper Jones goes 0-30 the rest of the week, but the Phillies and Mets both stink so bad that the Braves win the NL East, then he leapfrogs David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes for MVP? Am I to believe that Prince Fielder is on the outskirts of the voting on September 25th not because he is a weak fielder and a one-dimensional hitter and his numbers don't stack up with everyone else, but it's really because the Brewers are 2.5 games back of the Cubs? And then if they close that gap, suddenly he's one of the top 3 players in the league?
And taken the other way, if David Wright has the best numbers (which he does, fielding and hitting combined), continues to hit .350+ in September, but the Mets lose the next five games and cough everything up, should I not consider him the best player in the league anymore all of a sudden? If it comes down to the last game and the Mets have to win to tie for the division lead, and Billy Wagner blows a 3-run lead in the bottom of the 9th, does David Wright go from #1 player in the NL to #2 the moment Wagner throws that last losing pitch?
September 26th, 2007 at 12:59 pm
I don't mean to sound so scornful but it is staggering to me.
September 26th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
> Although to be honest, I find it staggering that it matters at this point.
> If Wright, in the Mets’ last 6 games, has 3 HR and 8 RBI, but the Mets lose
> the division to the Phillies and don’t make the playoffs, would you not vote
> for him then?
Nope. Those 3 HR and 8 RBI wouldn't change the fact that, when only considering stats, the NL MVP is a logjam. None of the metrics I've checked make any of my candidates stand out significantly from the crowd. So barring a monster final week from one of them (and maybe Fielder will have it), I'll probably use team performance as the tie-breaker. Wright would still get my vote today, because he's the only one of my candidates who would be heading to the playoffs. If your scenario did occur, I'd vote for Utley for the same reason.
September 26th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
You sound almost as scornful as the real Von Hayes.
September 26th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
For those that want a nice summary of NL hitting value and fielding value, check out this article: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/09/nl-mvp-by-numbers.html
If definitely separates out the contenders from the pretenders, and the order isn't what most people would think.
Overrated: Howard, Fielder, Rollins, Uggla (really, vonhayes?)
Underrated: Pujols, Chipper, Helton, Beltran, Phillips, Tulo (yes, even for MVP)
September 26th, 2007 at 2:54 pm
Interesting.
I only had Uggla at around 18th or so, for what it's worth. Although I thought his fielding was worth more than in your dude's system. Where did he get that fielding runs stat from?
September 26th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
Hi Vonhayes,
The fielding runs stat is a simple translation from THT's zone rating data. The methods are laid out here: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/03/how-should-we-calculate-zone-rating.html
The data aren't without their potential problems (no park factors, no adjustment for batter handedness in the outfield, etc), but they're the best we'll have until we get our hands on final '07 UZR or Dewan +/- data.
FWIW, though, UZR had Uggla at -4 runs last season and -1 runs at the all-star break this season. So these data are consistent with UZR, at least in this case.
-justin
September 26th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
Oh, I didn't realize that was your blog. Cool stuff. Sucks about the Reds.
September 26th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
Ballot:
1st place (14 points): Chipper Jones
2nd place (9 points): Prince Fielder
3rd place (8 points): Jake Peavey
September 27th, 2007 at 9:12 am
I am unsure about the Fielding Runs having the same value as VORP. It should be including when looking at a players performance but not so much it can truely change where a player would rank.
For example if Dave Roberts has a +28 in fielding, he will be higher on the list than he should be and pass many much better hitters who are only average fielders. Maybe a VORP + (Fielding Runs)*.25?
September 27th, 2007 at 9:44 am
I looked at several metrics to separate the true contenders from the marginal dudes, and sort of fudged the actual order. Basically anyone worth over 10 wins above replacement, adjusted (WARP3), according to baseball prospectus, is in the top 10. Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard are worth 7-ish wins.
Brandon Phillips is a 10.0 but I felt like his stats are sort of empty so I put Troy Tulowitzki in the 10th slot. Part of the reasoning was he plays SS which is a more important/difficult position than 2B.
Tulowitzki looks like he should be below Howard or Fielder, and I suppose I could have left him off in favor of Fielder and his 50 HR, but I felt that his fielding was so good that he deserved a nod. Fielder has a great VORP and Howard has a lot of RBIs but those things were only part of what I considered.
September 27th, 2007 at 10:59 am
#24 -- Why is a run saved in the field worth significantly less than a run produced at the plate?
September 27th, 2007 at 8:35 pm
As far as traditional MVP is concerned, offense is rated higher. Why else would a 50 HR 150 RBI guy always win over a Gold Glover. Ozzie Smith, Bill Mazeroski, and Brooks Robinson have 37 gold gloves with only 1 MVP between them. If defense = offense in MVP voting then they would have much more.
I am not saying defense is not important, I personally enjoy low scoring games and put a lot of stock in defense, I am just looking at how MVP votes are cast. Also, if offense was not more important; more pitchers would win or at least get votes.
Paul
September 27th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
As far as I am concerned, Albert Pujols should be the consensus NL MVP winner this year. His OPS is currently sitting at .996, a full 50 points higher than Holiday, and around 70 points higher than Prince. He has 100 RBI on a TERRIBLE team. He has walked 32 more times than he SO. Without him, the Cards would be one of the worst teams in baseball.
September 28th, 2007 at 5:38 am
soccerman, your data is inaccurate as albert pujols's ops is in fact below matt holiday's, though his adjusted ops+ beats matt's. i do agree with you, though, that albert should win the mvp. it makes me sick to my stomach when people don't consider him a candidate and i even find it hard to fathom rating jimmy rollins ahead of him. the only players with a higher ops+ than albert are chipper jones, who has missed a significant amount of time and has -4 fielding runs above average (fraa accoring to baseball prospectus), and prince fielder, who is even worse at -15 fraa. albert has a whopping 19 fraa. probably the best barometer of a good hitter is his wpa on fangraphs.com (where he is second only to prince fielder), which considers a player's teams chance of winning a game before and after each of his plate appearances (or bases stolen), it's only flaw is that it doesn't take into account park factors. this is a rare stat in that it will value a single advancing a runner to third higher than a single advancing a runner to second. it will also value a bases empty walk the same as a bases empty single and it will value clutch hitting highly. albert has done this while playing in the pitcher friendly (98 park rating) busch stadium. albert also leads the nl in warp1, baseball prospectus's barometer for wins contributed over a replacement player. jimmy rollin's leads the majors in outs due to a barely above average on base percentage. when you consider who hits after him - chase utley, pat burrell, ryan howard, and aaron rowand (all of whom have an ops of .900 except aaron rowand who is close) - it seems like a logical conclusion to say that if he does get on base, he will often get driven in, regardless of whether he hits a triple or single, so a player like ichiro probably would have helped the phillies offense more than jimmy did. it's easy to overrate jimmy rollins because of his all around statistics (power and speed), but it's better to be an excellent player than a good all around player. jimmy's 20-20-20-20 accomplishment should mostly be regarded as a cool coincidence rather than an high achievement. Many players (hanley ramirez, grady sizemore, carl crawford, bj upton, carlos beltran, maybe even alex rodriguez) could achieve that also if the ball bounces the right way, it's just so difficult to hit 20 triples. so here's my nl order:
1. albert pujols
2. david wright (his wpa is right near matt holiday's, but he plays in a 95 park)
3. matt holiday
4. prince fielder
5. chase utley (the only player on this list at a fielder's position)
6. todd helton
7. miguel cabrera
8. chipper jones
9. ryan howard
10. barry bonds
September 28th, 2007 at 6:35 am
I think the performance of a team overall has got to have some effect on the MVP voting. If you took two hypothetical teams--one with 60 wins and one with 100 wins--and each had an MVP candidate with the same exact stats---same numbers, same runs created, same Win Shares even--my vote definitely goes with the guy on the 100-win team because his performance was truly more valuable, in the sense that his contributions to his team's wins got the team a lot further. Clearly the guy on the 100-win team is playing with much more pressure, even if his final accomplishments are the same as the other guy.
Don't believe me? Just wait and see how poorly Carlos Pena does in the AL MVP voting. Pena has 44 HR, 119 RBI, an OPS of 1.021 and has put together by the far the most valuable season in Tampa Bay's franchise history. But he'll be lucky to finish much higher than 8th in the MVP voting.
September 28th, 2007 at 8:30 am
That's a sensible argument, I would probably do the same.
You could also look at it like this: say both guys were worth 12 wins, guy on the 100-win team contributed less compared to the rest of the team/lineup, and the team still might have been a Wild Card contender without him. The guy on the 60-win team helped push the team out of the record books for worst season ever, and perhaps he had to do everything himself with no one batting behind or around him, if it was a poor offensive team.
And I still don't see the logic in waiting during the last week to see what team pulls ahead - maybe in the final game - before you make your ballot, although that's not what you're saying.
I think I'd have Pena in my AL Top 10, though I haven't given it much thought since A-Rod's running away with it.
September 28th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
Personally, I completely ignore team success. It's just more interesting to me to debate player ability. Under that assumption, I'm starting to think Carlos Pena was a top 10 player this year. He's top 10 in VORP and is +10 runs compared to the average 1B. Fielding is Pujol's ace-in-the-hole, too. He's +30 runs. Yes, +30 runs.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:27 am
[...] If you would like to place your votes for NL MVP, please do so by noon on Monday so I can add up all the votes. Place your votes in the comments for this post. [...]
September 30th, 2007 at 10:09 am
I'm hesitant to plug my own site, but I did an analysis similar to Justin's, but using WPA (which I adjusted for both position and park factors) rather than VORP, and UZR & the THT fielding stats, which I think is relevant to this discussion.
http://vegaswatch.blogspot.com/2007/09/real-mvps.html
September 30th, 2007 at 10:47 am
Jimmie Rollins
Matt Holliday
David Wright
Ryan Howard
Prince Fielder
Jake Peavy
Hanley Ramirez
Jose Reyes
Chipper Jones
Chase Utley
September 30th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
1 - Jimmy Rollins
2 - Prince Fielder
3 - Matt Holliday
4 - Chase Utley
5 - Jake Peavy
6 - David Wright
7 - Ryan Howard
8 - Jose Reyes
9 - Troy Tulowitski
10 - Hanley Ramirez
October 1st, 2007 at 9:39 am
1. Jimmy Rollins
2. Chase Utley
3. Matt Holliday
4. Jose Reyes
5. Hanley Ramirez
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Prince Fielder
8. David Wright
9. Chipper Jones
10. Ryan Howard
11. Adam Dunn
October 1st, 2007 at 10:02 am
1st place: Jimmy Rollins
2nd place: Matt Holliday
3rd place: Chase Utley
4th place: Chipper Jones
5th place: David Wright
6th place: Prince Fielder
7th place: Miguel Cabrera
8th place: Ryan Howard
9th place: David Wright
10th place: Jose Reyes
October 1st, 2007 at 12:28 pm
1st place (14 points): Jimmy Rollins (the last two weeks)
2nd place (9 points): David Wright (the leader in win shares)
3rd place (8 points): Albert Pujols
4th place (7 points): Matt Holliday
5th place (6 points): Eric Byrnes
6th place (5 points): Hanley Ramirez
7th place (4 points): Jake Peavy
8th place (3 points): Prince Fielder
9th place (2 points): Russell Martin (151 games)
10th place (1 point): Barry Bonds
October 1st, 2007 at 1:59 pm
1. Fielder - 158 games and top SLG%; got the job done wRISP
2. Wright - Great defense and base running puts him at close 2nd
3. Pujols - doesn't feel right, but .429 OBP, 158 (166 RISP) OPS+
4. Holliday - 4th with Coors discount on incredible (and consistent) season
5. Rollins - pick du jour just doesn't have the OBP/OPS+ to go higher
6. Cabrera - .400 OBP, 152 OPS+ (184! RISP)
7. Ramirez - 103 OPS+ w/RISP - sorry, but give me a table clearer over a table setter; defensive liabilities offset base running
8. Jones - 100 more PAs would add enough 'value' to be #1
Note: I don't put much weight into RISP stats as an indicator, but as "Value" to a team, I think it is both applicable and important.
October 1st, 2007 at 8:59 pm
1st place (14 points): Jimmy Rollins
2nd place (9 points): Matt Holliday
3rd place (8 points): Prince Fielder
4th place (7 points): David Wright
5th place (6 points): Chase Utley
6th place (5 points): Chipper Jones
7th place (4 points): Hanley Ramirez
8th place (3 points): Ryan Howard
9th place (2 points): Adam Dunn
10th place (1 point): Albert Pujols
October 2nd, 2007 at 8:47 am
1. Jimmy Rollins
2. Matt Holiday
3. Prince Fielder
4. Chase Utley
5. David Wright
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Ryan Howard
8. Albert Pujols
9. Chipper Jones
10. Jose Reyes
October 2nd, 2007 at 9:31 am
1. Matt Holliday
2. Jimmy Rollins
3. Chipper Jones
4. David Wright
5. Miguel Cabrera
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Prince Fielder
8. Ryan Braun
9. Albert Pujols
10. Ryan Howard
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:01 pm
1. David Wright
2. Matt Holiday
3. Chase Utley
4. Chipper Jones
5. Hanley Ramirez
6. Albert Pujols
7. Miguel Cabrera
8. Prince Fielder
9. Barry Bonds
10. Ryan Braun
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:50 pm
1st place (14 points): Matt Holliday
2nd place (9 points): Prince Fielder
3rd place (8 points): Larry Wayne Jones
4th place (7 points): David Wright
5th place (6 points): Hanley Ramirez
6th place (5 points): Jimmy Rollins
7th place (4 points): Jake Peavy
8th place (3 points): Troy Tulowitzki
9th place (2 points): Jose Valverde
10th place (1 point): Ryan Howard
October 2nd, 2007 at 5:24 pm
1. Chase Utley
2. Jimmy Rollins
3. Matt Holliday
4. David Wright
5. RyanHoward
6. Chipper Jones
7. Albert Pujols
8. Prince Fielder
9. Jake Peavy
10. Jose Reyes
October 3rd, 2007 at 2:23 am
1. David Wright
2. Prince Fielder
3. Chipper Jones
4. Chase Utley
5. Jake Peavy
6. Matt Holliday
7. Albert Pujols
8. Miguel Cabrera
9. Eric Brynes
10. Jimmy Rollins
October 3rd, 2007 at 8:06 am
I would have already posted the results for this poll had psuimpreza not voted for David Wright twice. Took me forever to figure that out. (Incidentally, I didn't throw out your ballot--I removed Wright at 9th, put Reyes at 9th, and had no 10th.)
Also, it took me about an extra 10 seconds to figure out who Larry Wayne Jones is, spartanbill. Heh.
October 3rd, 2007 at 10:09 am
I am morally opposed to referring to a 35-year old man as "Chipper"
Thanks for doing the work on this. Ami I too presumptious to call it the "first annual" Stat of the Day ballot?
October 3rd, 2007 at 10:13 am
You'll have to ask Sean about that. If the blog continues to exist, I'll gladly continue to run the poll.
December 15th, 2007 at 7:06 am
d141f15869c2029bbdcf
d141f15869c2