Charlie Manual has already announced that Pedro Martinez is going to start Game 2 of the World Series against the Yankees. That's pretty fascinating to me as Pedro was a big part of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry from 1998-2004, including 5 ALCS starts against the Bombers during that span.

Below, I talk a little about what we might expect from Pedro in this start. First, however, I want to get a poll out of the way. Is Pedro's start the most compelling storyline in this World Series? Let's hear what you think, then please read on below.

Firstly, let's look at Pedro's career post-season appearances against the Yankees:

  Cnt Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP   ERA
+----+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------+
    1 1999-10-16    ALCS   3 BOS  NYY W 13-1  GS-7  ,W   7    2  0  0  2 12  0           83       25 23  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

    2 2003-10-11    ALCS   3 BOS  NYY L  3-4  GS-7  ,L   7    6  4  4  1  6  1  98  63   54       28 26  2  0   0   1  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   5.14
    3 2003-10-16    ALCS   7 BOS @NYY L  5-6  GS-8       7.1 10  5  5  1  8  2 123  77   45       33 32  4  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   6.14

    4 2004-10-13    ALCS   2 BOS @NYY L  1-3  GS-6  ,L   6    4  3  3  4  7  1 113  64   55       27 22  0  0   0   1  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   4.50
    5 2004-10-18    ALCS   5 BOS  NYY W  5-4  GS-6       6    7  4  4  5  6  1 111  62   43       31 24  1  0   0   2  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   6.00
    6 2004-10-20    ALCS   7 BOS @NYY W 10-3   7-7       1    3  2  2  0  1  0  20  15       0  0  6  6  2  0   0   0  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0  18.00

His first ever game against them in the playoffs was a gem, a start in the 1999 ALCS. This was the only game the Red Sox won in that series. Pedro was the Game 3 starter--can you name the starters in Games 1 and 2? I bet not. The answers are Kent Mercker in Game 1 and Pedro's brother Ramon in Game 2.

Anyway, after that first game in 1999, Pedro's performances against the Yankees in the playoffs have been pretty dismal, totaling 30 hits and 18 earned runs in 27.1 IP. The gopher ball has been his biggest problem, having given up 5 homers (although 4 were solo shots) over those 27.1 innings. Only 3 pitchers have given up more playoff homers to the Yankees. If you can guess those 3, you are amazing. (Click here for the answers.)

Pedro's career regular season numbers against the Yankees are as follows:

11-11 record, 3.20 ERA over 216.2 IP (32 games and starts, more than against any other team.) His K/BB ratio is 4.14 and OPS against is .603.

Compare those to his overall career numbers:

219-100, 2.93 ERA, K/BB ratio of 4.15 and OPS against .613.

Other than a slight edge in OPS, his numbers are all below his own averages against the Yankees. HOWEVER, keep in mind that he's played against the Yankees primarily when they have been a powerhouse team. They have hit very well against most of the league and Pedro's numbers against them are much better than nearly all other pitchers over the same span.

The real question, of course, is: does any of this history actually matter? We're talking about a player who turned 38 a few days ago and who was already on the down side of his career when he faced the Yankees in the playoffs 5 years ago. Pedro usually tops out at 91-92 MPH now and is not the same type of pitcher he was before.

However, in the regular season with the Phillies this year, Pedro struck out 37 and walked just 8 in 44.2 innings. Those numbers sure sound like the old Pedro even if he's not throwing nearly as hard as he used to. (But, just to remember how good Pedro was in 1999 and 2000---his K/BB ratio this season is an excellent 4.63 which is just over half of what it was those seasons--8.46 and 8.88!!!)

A better question might be: how have guys this old fared in the post-season before? When Pedro takes the mound in Game 2, it will rank 128th on the list of oldest starters in a post-season game, right ahead of himself against the Dodgers last week and behind Orel Hershiser's start in the 1996 ALDS for the Indians. He'll be the 42nd-oldest World Series starter. By my count, the 41 starts ahead of him have seen the starters go 14-16 with 11 no-decisions. Teams were 17-24 overall in these 41 games.

I did a little math and in the 41 games, the total stats are a 3.84 ERA over 248.1 IP with 92 BB, 170 K, and 20 HR allowed. These numbers are drawn over such a long period of time that off the top of my head I don't know how they compare to younger (average) pitchers over the same span, but my gut instinct is that they are not likely to be all that different. In summary, while it's fairly rare for such an old pitcher to start a World Series game, the ones who do it are usually among the few older pitchers who are still pitching effectively.

Anyway, what do I expect in the game started by Pedro? If I had to guess, we won't see a dominant performance but we also won't see him get hammered. He's already pitched pretty well in many important games this year and there's no reason o think he won't do so again in Game 2. Also, since he's facing the inconsistent A. J. Burnett, anything can happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pedro come away with the win.

Incidentally, I'm picking the Yankees in 7 games.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 28th, 2009 at 9:44 am and is filed under Polls, Postseason. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.