Most decisions in 30-35 game starts
Posted by Andy on March 11, 2009
Following on from yesterday, here is a list of the most decisions in a season with 30 to 35 game starts. I had to limit it to a more recent era (I chose 1970-present) since CGs and total number of game starts were so much higher in earlier days of baseball.
Cnt Player **Dec** GS Year Age Tm Lg G CG SHO GF W L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str +----+-----------------+-------+---+----+---+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+--+-----+--+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+--+----+----+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+----+ 1 La Marr Hoyt 34 32 1982 27 CHW AL 39 14 2 2 19 15 .559 0 239.2 248 104 94 48 124 3.53 114 17 995 932 51 8 3 2 6 7 22 24 9 1 0 4 .266 .301 .393 .694 89 2 Bob Welch 33 35 1990 33 OAK AL 35 2 2 0 27 6 .818 0 238 214 90 78 77 127 2.95 126 26 979 886 42 6 4 5 6 5 25 10 7 0 2 2 .242 .304 .391 .695 96 3 Frank Tanana 33 35 1974 20 CAL AL 39 12 4 2 14 19 .424 0 268.2 262 104 93 77 180 3.12 109 27 1127 1028 41 3 4 8 10 4 25 15 13 3 2 4 .255 .311 .379 .690 103 4 Luis Tiant 33 35 1973 32 BOS AL 35 23 0 0 20 13 .606 0 272 217 105 101 78 206 3.34 121 32 1096 991 45 4 3 7 11 9 13 13 8 3 0 2 .219 .278 .369 .647 76 5 Tom Seaver 33 35 1972 27 NYM NL 35 13 3 0 21 12 .636 0 262 215 92 85 77 249 2.92 115 23 1060 960 33 6 2 5 13 5 12 10 15 0 0 8 .224 .284 .343 .627 85 6 Roy Oswalt 32 35 2005 27 HOU NL 35 4 1 0 20 12 .625 0 241.2 243 85 79 48 184 2.94 144 18 1002 927 48 8 3 8 12 7 22 3 4 1 1 5 .262 .302 .389 .691 84 3600 2436 7 Dontrelle Willis 32 34 2005 23 FLA NL 34 7 5 0 22 10 .688 0 236.1 213 79 69 55 170 2.63 151 11 960 878 45 9 3 8 14 5 23 1 5 1 1 2 .243 .292 .352 .644 77 3552 2313 8 John Smoltz 32 35 1996 29 ATL NL 35 6 2 0 24 8 .750 0 253.2 199 93 83 55 276 2.94 149 19 995 922 45 2 3 2 12 4 13 10 13 1 1 10 .216 .260 .331 .591 55 9 Jack McDowell 32 34 1993 27 CHW AL 34 10 4 0 22 10 .688 0 256.2 261 104 96 69 158 3.37 125 20 1067 981 43 4 6 3 8 6 19 10 15 6 1 8 .266 .314 .379 .693 87 10 Kevin Brown 32 35 1992 27 TEX AL 35 11 1 0 21 11 .656 0 265.2 262 117 98 76 173 3.32 115 11 1108 1007 40 1 2 10 7 8 29 7 12 2 2 8 .260 .316 .335 .651 85 11 Frank Viola 32 35 1990 30 NYM NL 35 7 3 0 20 12 .625 0 249.2 227 83 74 60 182 2.67 141 15 1016 938 36 2 2 2 13 3 17 25 15 1 0 11 .242 .288 .333 .621 75 12 Greg Swindell 32 33 1988 23 CLE AL 33 12 4 0 18 14 .563 0 242 234 97 86 45 180 3.20 128 18 988 928 35 7 3 1 9 5 12 14 8 2 0 5 .252 .286 .363 .649 79 13 Orel Hershiser 32 35 1987 28 LAD NL 37 10 1 2 16 16 .500 1 264.2 247 105 90 74 190 3.06 131 17 1093 1000 40 7 5 9 8 2 30 12 9 1 2 11 .247 .304 .352 .656 81 14 Mark Langston 32 35 1987 26 SEA AL 35 14 3 0 19 13 .594 0 272 242 132 116 114 262 3.84 124 30 1152 1015 45 6 0 5 12 6 20 26 11 5 2 9 .238 .317 .383 .700 80 15 Fernando Valenzue 32 34 1986 25 LAD NL 34 20 3 0 21 11 .656 0 269.1 226 104 94 85 242 3.14 110 18 1102 998 40 2 5 1 15 3 16 15 11 1 0 13 .226 .287 .325 .612 79 16 Geoff Zahn 32 35 1980 34 MIN AL 38 13 5 0 14 18 .438 0 232.2 273 138 114 66 96 4.41 99 17 993 903 45 6 3 2 11 11 37 9 10 2 1 3 .302 .347 .422 .769 103 17 Paul Splittorff 32 35 1979 32 KCR AL 36 11 0 0 15 17 .469 0 240 248 137 113 77 77 4.24 101 25 1026 924 39 9 1 5 9 11 23 21 4 1 0 1 .268 .324 .411 .735 95 18 Jim Colborn 32 35 1977 31 KCR AL 36 6 1 0 18 14 .563 0 239 233 106 96 81 103 3.62 113 22 1023 914 47 3 2 13 10 3 21 12 5 1 3 8 .255 .323 .385 .708 90 19 Luis Tiant 32 35 1975 34 BOS AL 35 18 2 0 18 14 .563 0 260 262 126 116 72 142 4.02 103 25 1080 992 51 10 0 4 7 5 20 19 11 5 0 2 .264 .315 .411 .726 96 20 Fritz Peterson 32 35 1972 30 NYY AL 35 12 3 0 17 15 .531 0 250.1 270 98 90 44 100 3.24 91 17 1042 980 41 8 5 5 10 3 33 3 3 0 1 7 .276 .309 .386 .695 115 21 Rick Wise 32 35 1972 26 STL NL 35 20 2 0 16 16 .500 0 269 250 98 93 71 142 3.11 110 16 1089 998 48 11 13 1 13 6 26 16 11 0 0 4 .251 .299 .369 .668 96 22 Denny McLain 32 32 1971 27 WSA AL 33 9 3 1 10 22 .313 0 216.2 233 115 103 72 103 4.28 77 31 931 828 37 4 8 3 16 12 22 15 9 0 1 4 .281 .337 .448 .785 133 23 Pat Jarvis 32 34 1970 29 ATL NL 36 11 1 1 16 16 .500 0 254 240 110 102 72 173 3.61 119 21 1062 973 41 7 5 0 9 8 16 18 3 0 2 5 .247 .296 .368 .664 79 24 Jim Merritt 32 35 1970 26 CIN NL 35 12 1 0 20 12 .625 0 234 248 114 106 53 136 4.08 102 21 984 917 64 10 12 1 10 3 17 4 7 4 0 4 .270 .310 .431 .741 100
Not all these decisions came as starters, as is immediately obvious with #1 La Marr Hoyt, who ended up with more decisions than he did game starts. It comes as no surprise that most of the guys on this list were very good or excellent pitchers. In most cases here, the pitchers racked up a lot of wins, plus some close losses, and got lots of decisions. They made lots of starts because they were good. Of the 24 seasons on here, we have 11 seasons with 20 wins, and 16 with at least 18 wins.
But check out the weighted ERA+ for this group. It's 117.6, as compared to 108.6 for the group we saw yesterday (fewest decisions with at least 30 starts.)
What does this all mean? It's tough to draw really detailed, meaningful conclusions from what is pretty circumstantial data. However, in general, you have to be a pretty good pitcher to make at least 30 starts, and within that group, the better pitchers have at least a small tendency to register more decisions. Earthshattering? No.
March 11th, 2009 at 9:53 am
Interesting stuff. I can determine that Greg Swindell had only one no-decision start for the Indians in '88. It's possible that both La Marr Hoyt and Denny McClain had zero no-decision starts in '82 and '71 respectively, but they may have had one (McClain) or more (Hoyt). If both had at least one, what is the greatest number of starts in a season with zero no-decisions during the era you researched? (It would then obviously have to be 29 or fewer, but it's still quite a feat.)
March 11th, 2009 at 10:09 am
Unfortunately we can't search for no decisions at the season level, meaning that this type of search requires a manual study.
March 11th, 2009 at 10:25 am
Why did you limit it to only 35 starts? Steve Carlton went 27-10 in 1972 for a whopping 37 decisions
March 11th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Since 1956 the most starts in a season with a decision in them all is 40 by Gaylord Perry in 1972 (He also had a save in his only relief appearance.) There doesn't appear to be anyone close.
Here are the longest streaks of starts with a decision to start a season since 1956. Most of them ended well before the season did.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/rt7K
March 11th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
I recognize you limited the list to 30-35 GS out of necessaity but I remembered Phil Niekro who went something like 21 - 20 in 44 starts in 1979. Also, I remember similar years by Wilbur Wood.
I think the key to this group, compared to yesterday's group, is again the number of IP. Yesterday's group was a bit better than average but had just 1 pitcher w more than 200 IP and this group has only 1 w less than 200 IP, generally far more. Of course, being significantly better than avg would make a mgr leave pitchers in this group in more than the 6 innings that yeterday's group, on avg, was left in.
March 11th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
I appreciate Raphy's response. I had just figured out that neither Hoyt nor McClain was the answer. In '82, Hoyt was 3-0 (all in relief) before he was inserted into the starting rotation, so therefore had at least one no-decision start during that season. In '71, McClain had a no-decision on July 5 after coming out (reason unknown) in the 3d inning of a 15-6 win.
March 11th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
This further supports the idea that being a workhorse - as well as a good pitcher - is a key characteristic. All of the seasons on this list averaged at least 6.5 innings per start (after removing the 50 1/3 IP in 21 relief appearances), whereas only one of the 16 pitchers on yesterday's list managed that. Two thirds of today's list averaged at least 7 IP/GS (a feat no one on yesterday's list managed). In fact, 20 of the 24 on today's list averaged more innings per start than ALL of the 16 on yesterday's list. In that 1986 season, the Pudgy Mexican fell just 2 2/3 innings short of averaging 8 innings per start. When you're leavig your bullpen only one inning to blow a lead or to come back from a deficit, you're going to get most of the decisions yourself.
March 11th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
If anyone is interested:
From 2004-2008 Starting Pitchers only:
IP: Number of Starts, Numbers of Decisions, %
Less than 5: 4350 Starts, 2826 Decisions, 65%
5-5.75: 5246,3517, 67%
6-6.75: 7135,4844, 68%
7-7.75: 5291,3931, 74%
8-8.75: 1657,1343, 81%
9+: 615, 579, 94%
March 11th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Here is the breakdown of those 6-6.75 inning starts by runs allowed:
RA:Starts,Decisions,%
0:475,362,76%
1:1043,686,66%
2:1508,946,63%
3:1591,1017,64%
4:1244,837,67%
5:781,579,74%
6:334,276,83%
7+:159,141,89%
March 11th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
That Denny McLain season stands out like a sore thumb, doesn't it? 10-22, when no one else was worse than 14-19; ERA+ of 77 when no one else was worse than 91. Senators must have been desperate for pitching.
March 12th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
A quick look at the league leaders in games started (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/GS_leagues.shtml) shows that the most starts anyone has had from 1980-2008 is 40. So, I reset the criteria for games started between 30 and 40 (from 1980-2008), and sorted by decisions:
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/aDNc
The first two seasons really stand out: With only 36 starts, both Joaquin Andujar (20-14) and Lamarr Hoyt (24-10) tallied 34 decisions. Neither appeared in any games in which they did not start.
March 13th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Not to belabor the point, but looking at leatherman's list, of the 115 pitchers with 30+ decisions since 1980 (again, I've removed relief IP):
Only 2 (1.7%) averaged less than 6 innings per start
13 (11%) averaged less than 6 1/3 IP/GS, i.e. 102 (89%) averaged at least 6 1/3 IP/GS
48 (42%) averaged less than 7 IP/GS, so more than half averaged 7+ IP/GS
26 (23%) averaged at least 7.5 IP/GS
5 (4.3%) averaged at least 8 IP/GS
And Rick Langford in 1980 managed an anachronistic 8.72 IP/GS - he fall just 9 1/3 innings short of averaging a "perfect" 9 IP/GS! Of course, 28 CG in 33 GS will tend to do that. (He also pitched 2 1/3 innings in 2 relief apparances, but these were discounted).
Of the pitchers with at least 30 decisions, there were 6 with at least 20 CG, all berween 1980 and 1986. All of those guys averaged at least 7.90 IP/GS; and were in the top 8 in IP/GS (not surprisingly). The 2 pitchers who rounded out the top 8 in IP/GS (actually, at #4 and #5), were Mario Soto and Steve Carlton, who had 18 and 13 CG respectively. Even in their non-complete games, they must have gone very deep into the ball games, as they each averaged at least 8 IP/GS. It seems pretty amazing that Lefty had almost twice as many non-CG as CG, (13 CG, 25 non-CG) yet still managed to average 8 IP/GS.
That got me looking into his game log for that season. He went at least 6 innings in all 38 starts, at least 7 IP in 34 of them (89%), and at least 8 IP in 25 starts (66%). He went at leat 9 innings in 14 starts (37%), including a 10-inning complete game. He also pitched 9 innings in one start in which he did not get a CG (he still got the win - Keith Moreland, pinch hitting for Lefty, drove in the winning a run in the top of the 10th to beat St. Louis 3-2, and Tug McGraw pitched the bottom of the 10th to get the save). Incidentally, 3 of the 4 games that he did not go at least 7 innings were in the first third of the season, and none were in August or September. In fact, he went at least 8 innings in 11 of 14 (79%) starts down the stretch (Aug. and Sept.), averaging 8.44 IP/GS in those months. And this was the season that the Phils won the NL East over the Expos by *one game*, then went on to win the World Series. Now that's what I call a workhorse!
March 13th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
That's also the last time anyone pitched 300 IP in a season.