When Will They Learn?
Posted by Steve Lombardi on September 10, 2007
Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Batting Season find tells us that there have only been 19 times where a player has 50+ HR in a season where he also has less than 100 BB in that year. Here's the list:
From To Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons -----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------ Alex Rodriguez 2001 2007 25-31 3 Ind. Seasons Sammy Sosa 1998 2000 29-31 3 Ind. Seasons Ken Griffey 1997 1998 27-28 2 Ind. Seasons Willie Mays 1955 1965 24-34 2 Ind. Seasons Andruw Jones 2005 2005 28-28 1 Ind. Seasons Greg Vaughn 1998 1998 32-32 1 Ind. Seasons Brady Anderson 1996 1996 32-32 1 Ind. Seasons Albert Belle 1995 1995 28-28 1 Ind. Seasons Cecil Fielder 1990 1990 26-26 1 Ind. Seasons George Foster 1977 1977 28-28 1 Ind. Seasons Roger Maris 1961 1961 26-26 1 Ind. Seasons Johnny Mize 1947 1947 34-34 1 Ind. Seasons Ralph Kiner 1947 1947 24-24 1 Ind. Seasons Seasons/Careers found: 19.
If A-Rod keeps his pace this season in the BB-department, he'll join Sammy Sosa as the only player in baseball history with 3 seasons of "50+ HR and <=99 BB."
I wonder why teams don't give Alex the "Barry Bonds" treatment and just walk him?
September 10th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Except when Alex is on a home-run streak and there's a base open, it's probably best to pitch to him, since there is a 69% chance he will make one out (or more) when he swings.
The category Sammy Sosa and A-Rod share is as much a consequence of their attitudes at the plate as it is a result of how they are pitched. They're not as selective as they should be. Despite his year off and his limited playing time, Sammy is #2 alltime in strikeouts. A-Rod has already struck out 1500 times. While he seems to be learning how to avoid extreme K numbers (this year), at his current career pace, he might catch both Barry Bonds in home runs and Reggie Jackson in strikeouts.
Notice that in career OPS+, A-Rod comes nowhere near Albert Pujols, a more disciplined hitter. Of course, Albert is on pace to set a career record for grounding into double plays.
September 10th, 2007 at 11:01 am
Without a base open, it's tough to justify putting a baserunner on when facing the Yankees. With that lineup, rather than prolong an inning and increase the probablity of scoring runs, it's best to try and have him make out or not hit a homerun (90% of all outcomes).
Is this sound? Or am I missing something?
September 10th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Hideki Matsui 305
Jorge Posada 192
Jason Giambi 130
The players above are the guys who bat 5th most for the Yankees this season - the numbers are the PA where they have batted 5th.
Posada has been hot all year. But, Matsui and Giambi are streaky. When they're ice cold, I would take my chances with them, and A-Rod on first, rather than pitch to Alex. But, yes, when they're hot, it's better to make Alex swing.
September 10th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Now pitchers don't walk A-Rod, but just give him HBPs....:P
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/97QW
A-Rod got 19 HBPs this year so far. This is the second in MLB, and the first in AL.
Maybe I am wrong... but from my impression, some HBPs he got is somehow intentional.
September 10th, 2007 at 11:45 am
That's a pretty neat list. What I notice is that many of those seasons are the first "big" home run seasons for those guys--Anderson, Vaugh, and Fielder stick out like sore thumbs.
September 10th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Don't forget Andre Dawson's 49 HR with like 33 BB!