Checking in on Ankiel
Posted by Andy on August 28, 2007
We were all happy to see Rick Ankiel make it back to the majors as an outfielder. He's made some noise with the bat, so let's check in on his season so far.
So far, he's appeared in 13 games, yielding 44 at-bats with 12 hits, 9 runs scored, 9 batted in, 2 doubles and 4 homers. He's got an alarming B/KK ratio of 4 BB and 17 K. He's batting .273/.327/.591.
For fun, I have scaled his 2007 season out to 650 plate appearances. There are at least two reasons why it's really stupid to do this (1. Because the sample size is so small and 2. Because he doesn't have an established major league hitting record) but I'm doing it anyway.
This scaling yields:
PA: 650 H: 159 2B: 27 3B: 0 HR: 53 R: 119 RBI: 119 BB: 53 K: 225
225 strikeouts? Ouch. Obviously his averages (BA .273, OBP .327, SLG .591) wouldn't change.
To me, the most striking thing about this "projected season" is having 50+ homers but only 53 walks.
Here are the 25 players since 1901 with at least 40 homers and at most 50 walks:
Cnt Player **BB** HR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions +----+-----------------+-------+--+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+ 1 Dante Bichette 22 40 1995 31 COL NL 139 612 579 102 197 38 2 128 5 96 4 0 7 16 13 9 .340 .364 .620 .984 *79 2 Andre Dawson 32 49 1987 32 CHC NL 153 662 621 90 178 24 2 137 7 103 7 0 2 15 11 3 .287 .328 .568 .896 *9 3 Tony Armas 32 43 1984 30 BOS AL 157 679 639 107 171 29 5 123 9 156 1 0 7 13 1 3 .268 .300 .531 .831 *8D/9 4 Javy Lopez 33 43 2003 32 ATL NL 129 495 457 89 150 29 3 109 5 90 4 0 1 10 0 1 .328 .378 .687 1.065 *2/D 5 Juan Gonzalez 33 42 1997 27 TEX AL 133 579 533 87 158 24 3 131 7 107 3 0 10 12 0 0 .296 .335 .589 .924 *D9 6 Matt Williams 33 43 1994 28 SFG NL 112 483 445 74 119 16 3 96 7 87 2 0 3 11 1 0 .267 .319 .607 .926 *5 7 Sammy Sosa 34 40 1996 27 CHC NL 124 541 498 84 136 21 2 100 6 134 5 0 4 14 18 5 .273 .323 .564 .887 *9 8 Tony Batista 35 41 2000 26 TOR AL 154 664 620 96 163 32 2 114 1 121 6 0 3 15 5 4 .263 .307 .519 .826 *5 9 Vinny Castilla 35 40 1996 28 COL NL 160 673 629 97 191 34 0 113 7 88 5 0 4 20 7 2 .304 .343 .548 .891 *5 10 Juan Gonzalez 35 43 1992 22 TEX AL 155 632 584 77 152 24 2 109 1 143 5 0 8 16 0 1 .260 .304 .529 .833 *87/D9 11 Hal Trosky 36 42 1936 23 CLE AL 151 671 629 124 216 45 9 162 0 58 3 3 0 0 6 5 .343 .382 .644 1.026 *3/4 12 Juan Gonzalez 37 46 1993 23 TEX AL 140 587 536 105 166 33 1 118 7 99 13 0 1 12 4 1 .310 .368 .632 1.000 *7D 13 George Bell 39 47 1987 27 TOR AL 156 665 610 111 188 32 4 134 9 75 7 0 9 17 5 1 .308 .352 .605 .957 *7/D45 14 Orlando Cepeda 39 46 1961 23 SFG NL 152 636 585 105 182 28 4 142 11 91 9 0 3 21 12 8 .311 .362 .609 .971 *379 15 Vinny Castilla 40 46 1998 30 COL NL 162 697 645 108 206 28 4 144 7 89 6 0 6 24 5 9 .319 .362 .589 .951 *5/6 16 Andres Galarraga 40 47 1996 35 COL NL 159 691 626 119 190 39 3 150 3 157 17 0 8 6 18 8 .304 .357 .601 .958 *3/5 17 Vinny Castilla 44 40 1997 29 COL NL 159 668 612 94 186 25 2 113 9 108 8 0 4 17 2 4 .304 .356 .547 .903 *5 18 Dick Stuart 44 42 1963 30 BOS AL 157 659 612 81 160 25 4 118 2 144 1 1 1 24 0 0 .261 .312 .521 .833 *3 19 Alex Rodriguez 45 42 1998 22 SEA AL 161 748 686 123 213 35 5 124 0 121 10 3 4 12 46 13 .310 .360 .560 .920 *6/D 20 Juan Gonzalez 45 47 1996 26 TEX AL 134 592 541 89 170 33 2 144 12 82 3 0 3 10 2 0 .314 .368 .643 1.011 *9D 21 Dave Kingman 45 48 1979 30 CHC NL 145 589 532 97 153 19 5 115 7 131 4 0 8 7 4 2 .288 .343 .613 .956 *7 22 Ernie Banks 45 44 1955 24 CHC NL 154 646 596 98 176 29 9 117 6 72 2 0 3 16 9 3 .295 .345 .596 .941 *6 23 Juan Gonzalez 46 45 1998 28 TEX AL 154 669 606 110 193 50 2 157 9 126 6 0 11 20 2 1 .318 .366 .630 .996 *9D 24 Ryne Sandberg 50 40 1990 30 CHC NL 155 675 615 116 188 30 3 100 8 84 1 0 9 8 25 7 .306 .354 .559 .913 *4 25 Willie McCovey 50 44 1963 25 SFG NL 152 627 564 103 158 19 5 102 5 119 11 1 1 10 1 1 .280 .350 .566 .916 *73/9
Actually, #3 on that list by Tony Armas (senior) reminds me a lot of Ankiel's projected season. A ton of strikeouts (156 for Armas) and all of the averages are close. The biggest difference is that Armas his just 32 homers. However, 32 is a more reasonable expectation for Ankiel over a full season than 53 (you don't have to be a SOTD guest blogger to know that...)
Notice that all of those 25 seasons above feature fewer than 50 homers. Let's make a new list, this time for minimum 50 homers, maximum 100 walks:
Cnt Player **BB** HR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions +----+-----------------+-------+--+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+ 1 George Foster 61 52 1977 28 CIN NL 158 689 615 124 197 31 2 149 10 107 5 0 8 17 6 4 .320 .382 .631 1.013 *78 2 Andruw Jones 64 51 2005 28 ATL NL 160 672 586 95 154 24 3 128 13 112 15 0 7 19 5 3 .263 .347 .575 .922 *8 3 Sammy Sosa 73 66 1998 29 CHC NL 159 722 643 134 198 20 0 158 14 171 1 0 5 20 18 9 .308 .377 .647 1.024 *9/8 4 Albert Belle 73 50 1995 28 CLE AL 143 629 546 121 173 52 1 126 5 80 6 0 4 24 5 2 .317 .401 .690 1.091 *7/D 5 Johnny Mize 74 51 1947 34 NYG NL 154 664 586 137 177 26 2 138 0 42 4 0 0 6 2 0 .302 .384 .614 .998 *3 6 Alex Rodriguez 75 52 2001 25 TEX AL 162 732 632 133 201 34 1 135 6 131 16 0 9 17 18 3 .318 .399 .622 1.021 *6/D 7 Ken Griffey 76 56 1998 28 SEA AL 161 720 633 120 180 33 3 146 11 121 7 0 4 14 20 5 .284 .365 .611 .976 *8/D379 8 Ken Griffey 76 56 1997 27 SEA AL 157 704 608 125 185 34 3 147 23 121 8 0 12 12 15 4 .304 .382 .646 1.028 *8/D7 9 Brady Anderson 76 50 1996 32 BAL AL 149 687 579 117 172 37 5 110 1 106 22 6 4 11 21 8 .297 .396 .637 1.033 *8/D 10 Willie Mays 76 52 1965 34 SFG NL 157 638 558 118 177 21 3 112 16 71 0 2 2 11 9 4 .317 .398 .645 1.043 *8/97 11 Sammy Sosa 78 63 1999 30 CHC NL 162 712 625 114 180 24 2 141 8 171 3 0 6 17 7 8 .288 .367 .635 1.002 *98 12 Greg Vaughn 79 50 1998 32 SDP NL 158 661 573 112 156 28 4 119 6 121 5 0 4 7 11 4 .272 .363 .597 .960 *7/D 13 Willie Mays 79 51 1955 24 NYG NL 152 670 580 123 185 18 13 127 13 60 4 0 7 12 24 4 .319 .400 .659 1.059 *8 14 Alex Rodriguez 87 57 2002 26 TEX AL 162 725 624 125 187 27 2 142 12 122 10 0 4 14 9 4 .300 .392 .623 1.015 *6 15 Cecil Fielder 90 51 1990 26 DET AL 159 673 573 104 159 25 1 132 11 182 5 0 5 15 0 1 .277 .377 .592 .969 *3D 16 Sammy Sosa 91 50 2000 31 CHC NL 156 705 604 106 193 38 1 138 19 168 2 0 8 12 7 4 .320 .406 .634 1.040 *9/8 17 Roger Maris 94 61 1961 26 NYY AL 161 698 590 132 159 16 4 142 0 67 7 0 7 16 0 0 .269 .372 .620 .992 *98 18 Ralph Kiner 98 51 1947 24 PIT NL 152 666 565 118 177 23 4 127 0 81 2 1 0 12 1 0 .313 .417 .639 1.056 *7 19 Luis Gonzalez 100 57 2001 33 ARI NL 162 728 609 128 198 36 7 142 24 83 14 0 5 14 1 1 .325 .429 .688 1.117 *7
In terms of the HR/BB ratio, nobody has ever had a season like that projected Ankiel season. It's quite unlikely that such a ratio would continue. If Ankiel continues to hit HRs at a pace for 50+ (doubtful) then he would get walked more.
Isn't it kind of statistically interesting that lots of guys have hit 40-49 homers and had fewer walks than homers, but nobody has ever hit 50+ homers and had fewer walks than homers?
December 20th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Sad to see Ankiel on the Mitchell report.