The Moose lays a goose (egg)
Posted by Andy on August 28, 2007
Mike Mussina has almost single-handedly dropped the Yankees out of post-season contention. I have seen a fair amount of talk in the New York media about this being the end of the road for him, which I frankly find preposterous. It's true that his dreadful streak comes at the worst possible time for the Yankees, and also true that they are likely to replace him for at least a start or two to try to get back in the wild-card lead. But I don't think his career is over quite yet.
Anyway, from Mussina's game logs, you can see his last three starts:
CarGm TmG Date Opp DR GmReslt Pitcher Result IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA BF Pit Str GmSc IR IS Situat. In/Out Inn Rnr O Scr SB CS Pk AB 2B 3B IW HB SH SF RE DP +-----+---+---------+----+--+-------+--------------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+------+--+---+---+----+--+--+--------------+--------------+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+ 496 121 Aug 16 DET 4 L 5-8 GS-5 ,L 8-8 5 9 7 6 2 2 1 4.76 26 95 61 23 1t start tie 5t 3 out d 4 1 1 0 24 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 497 126 Aug 21 @LAA 4 L 9-18 GS-2 ,L 8-9 1.2 7 7 7 2 1 0 5.22 14 48 27 12 1b start tie 2b -2- 2 d 6 1 0 0 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 498 131 Aug 27 @DET 5 L 0-16 GS-3 ,L 8-10 3 9 6 6 1 0 0 5.53 19 72 49 16 1b start tie 3b 3 out d 6 1 0 0 17 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
These performances were all pretty bad, all garnering Game Scores of 23 or fewer. (I think "fewer" is really the correct word there, believe it or not.)
Using the Pitching Streak Finder, here are all pitchers in the last 10 years to have at least 3 consecutive games with Game Scores of 23 or fewer:
StreakStart Streak End Games W L GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA HBP WP BK Teams +-----------------+-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Mike Mussina 2007-08-16 2007-08-27 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 9.2 25 20 19 5 3 1 17.69 0 0 0 NYY Jose Contreras 2007-07-20 2007-07-31 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 14.2 30 26 26 7 7 6 15.95 3 0 0 CHW Mike Maroth 2007-07-14 2007-07-27 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 14 31 25 23 5 7 6 14.79 1 0 0 STL John Van Benschot 2007-07-07 2007-07-27 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 19 21 21 9 4 1 27.00 3 0 0 PIT Bronson Arroyo 2007-05-21 2007-05-31 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 11 24 20 20 7 4 3 16.36 1 0 0 CIN Kyle Lohse 2007-05-12 2007-05-23 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 24 20 17 3 8 3 15.30 0 1 0 CIN Hayden Penn 2006-09-03 2006-09-15 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 7.1 24 22 22 5 3 5 27.00 0 0 0 BAL Mark Mulder 2006-06-20 2006-08-29 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 25 23 23 7 2 3 29.57 0 0 0 STL Dontrelle Willis 2005-07-08 2005-07-22 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 13 25 23 23 5 7 3 15.92 1 1 1 FLA Jamie Moyer 2005-04-30 2005-05-11 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 8.2 27 17 16 6 5 1 16.62 1 0 0 SEA Jose Acevedo 2004-07-18 2004-07-28 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 25 19 18 10 7 2 16.20 1 0 1 CIN Shawn Estes 2002-09-07 2003-04-04 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 6.2 19 19 15 8 3 2 20.25 1 0 0 CIN-CHC Jaret Wright 2002-07-29 2002-08-30 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 5.1 17 17 16 12 1 0 27.00 0 1 0 CLE Steve Woodard 2001-08-31 2001-09-09 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 8.2 22 18 18 3 2 4 18.69 1 0 2 CLE Willie Blair 2001-06-26 2001-07-07 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 11 25 22 20 7 7 2 16.36 0 0 0 DET Don Wengert 2001-05-14 2001-05-26 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 11 24 20 20 3 4 2 16.36 0 0 0 PIT Scott Erickson 2000-06-18 2000-06-29 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 15.2 30 22 22 7 7 5 12.64 1 1 0 BAL Chad Durbin 2000-05-11 2000-06-23 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 3.2 20 21 21 4 5 6 51.55 0 1 0 KCR Andy Ashby 2000-05-19 2000-05-30 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 14.1 29 22 19 6 3 4 11.93 0 0 0 PHI Sean Bergman 2000-05-10 2000-05-21 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 11 24 25 25 7 4 4 20.45 0 0 0 MIN Jaime Navarro 2000-04-18 2000-04-28 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 23 21 20 10 4 4 18.00 0 1 0 MIL Roy Halladay 2000-04-15 2000-04-25 3 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 13.1 28 21 21 9 7 3 14.18 0 2 0 TOR Paul Byrd 1999-10-02 2000-04-10 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 6.2 18 22 17 8 4 4 22.95 0 1 0 PHI Ismael Valdez 1999-09-06 1999-09-17 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 10 24 20 20 7 4 5 18.00 0 0 0 LAD John Snyder 1999-08-26 1999-09-06 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 12 23 22 20 8 4 6 15.00 0 2 0 CHW +-----------------+-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ StreakStart Streak End Games W L GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA HBP WP BK Teams +-----------------+-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Ryan Dempster 1999-07-01 1999-07-18 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 11.1 19 20 20 13 7 4 15.88 0 2 0 FLA Chan Ho Park 1999-06-27 1999-07-08 3 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 12.2 24 22 22 10 10 6 15.63 2 0 0 LAD Brian Bohanon 1999-06-15 1999-06-25 3 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 14.1 31 20 20 7 11 2 12.56 1 0 0 COL Bobby Witt 1998-04-25 1998-05-06 3 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 10.1 24 21 21 8 5 5 18.29 0 1 0 TEX Steve Avery 1997-08-13 1997-08-26 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 9.1 21 21 21 10 9 5 20.25 1 0 0 BOS Jack McDowell 1997-04-06 1997-04-18 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 13.2 28 21 19 6 11 4 12.51 0 1 0 CLE
This is kind of a strange list. The pitcher can't really be all that bad to make this list, because few pitchers are going to keep throwing such terrible games and keep their jobs. A number of these guys, such as Navarro and Wengert, we close to the end of their careers, and some of the better names such as Halladay and Byrd were still early in their careers, before the bulk of their big-league success.
But, it's not as if Mussina has been lousy all year. Look at this string of consecutive starts from June & July:
CarGm TmG Date Opp DR GmReslt Pitcher Result IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA BF Pit Str GmSc IR IS Situat. In/Out Inn Rnr O Scr SB CS Pk AB 2B 3B IW HB SH SF RE DP +-----+---+---------+----+--+-------+--------------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+------+--+---+---+----+--+--+--------------+--------------+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+ 484 58 Jun 7 @CHW 4 W 10-3 GS-7 6 4 1 1 0 4 0 5.63 22 79 52 64 1b start tie 7b 1-3 0 a 1 0 0 0 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 485 63 Jun 13 ARI 5 W 7-2 GS-8 ,W 3-3 7.2 6 2 2 0 7 1 5.17 28 101 74 66 1t start tie 8t 1-- 2 a 5 0 0 0 27 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 486 68 Jun 19 @COL 5 L 1-3 GS-6 ,L 3-4 6 7 3 3 2 6 1 5.10 27 95 66 50 1b start tie 6b 3 out d 2 2 0 0 24 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 487 73 Jun 24 @SFG 4 L 2-7 GS-5 ,L 3-5 5 5 3 2 3 5 0 4.98 24 105 63 49 1b start tie 5b 3 out d 3 5 0 0 19 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 488 77 Jun 29 OAK 4 W 2-1 GS-7 ,W 4-5 7 6 1 1 1 3 0 4.62 26 84 54 63 1t start tie 7t 3 out a 1 1 0 0 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 489 82 Jul 4 MIN 4 L 2-6 GS-6 ,L 4-6 6 5 4 3 0 5 1 4.62 24 93 60 53 1t start tie 7t --- 0 d 2 1 0 0 24 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 490 90 Jul 15 @TBD 10 W 7-6 GS-6 6 11 3 3 2 0 0 4.61 27 88 57 36 1b start tie 6b 3 out a 1 3 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
In this day and age, that's a pretty good streak. He certainly deserved to win more than 2 out of these 7 starts, but the Yankee offense was asleep during that part of the season.
Perhaps more troubling is Mussina's lessened ability to go deep into games.
For his career, he has pitched 3337 innings in 498 game starts (he has never had a relief appearance.) That's 6.70 innings per start, meaning he's going until 2 outs in the 7th innings on average. But this season, he's amassed just 123.2 innings over 23 starts, for an average of 5.38 innings per start, or until about 1 out in the 6th innings. Thats a difference of 4 outs, which is a big deal
His ERA is currently about three-quarters of a run above his previous season-high, and close to 2 runs above his career average. His career hits/9 rate is 8.67 and his career WHIP is 1.19. This year, those figures jump to 11.28 and 1.49, respectively.
Actually, his walk rate is right in line with his career standard. But his K/BB ratio? Ouch. Career it's 3.54, but this season it's just 2.62. (For comparison, in 2006 it was 4.91 and in 2005 it was 3.02.)
Who do have when a strikeout pitcher can no longer strike out enough batters? Mike Mussina, or, for that matter, Roger Clemens.
August 28th, 2007 at 4:31 pm
Clay Davenport has the Yankees with a 45% chance of making the playoffs, so I wouldn't say they've been dropped out of post-season contention yet.
I think Mussina would be welcomed back if he wanted to finish his career in Baltimore.
August 29th, 2007 at 5:32 am
A couple of weeks ago, most had the Yankees with a 75% chance of making the playoffs. So that's a pretty big drop. As of this morning they are 1 game behind Seattle for the WC, and Seattle has a tougher schedule remaining. Time will tell.