I did an analysis on the number of pitchers used in each game in 2006, and split them up by games won and games lost. On average, 3.73 pitchers were used by the winning team in each game won, and 3.97 pitchers were used by the losing team in games lost. Click through for a graph and some analysis.

Here's the breakdown for 2006:

This data comes from the PI Team Pitching Game finder, searcher for number of pitchers used per game. I specified "win" or "loss" on the front page to split the data this way.

There are 2429 total wins, and of course 2429 total losses. The blue line on the graph shows the frequency of pitchers used by the winning team in these 2429 games, and the red line shows the frequency of pitchers used b the losing team in all those same games. The very high number of pitchers used (7+) is quite similar for both wins and losses. However, 4, 5, or 6 pitchers are used more commonly in losses, while 1, 2 or 3 pitchers are used more commonly in wins. The disparity gets larger and larger as the number of pitchers approaches 1. For example, for one pitcher used, there were 111 complete game wins in 2006, while there were just 33 complete game losses.

On average, about an additional one-quarter of a pitcher appearance is used in each loss vs. each win (3.97 vs. 3.73.) If a team loses 4 games in a week, it will on average have to use one extra pitcher appearance as compared to a team winning all of its games. Or think about it this way: Compare a 100-win team and a 60-win team. Going by 2006 numbers, a 100-win team will have 373 appearances in its 100 wins, and 238 appearances in its 60 losses, for 611 total appearances. A 60-win team will have 224 appearances in its 60 wins, and 397 appearances in its 100 losses, for 621 total appearances. Realizing that for each team, 162 of those appearances will be game starters, it means that a 100-loss team has on average about 2.3% more appearances by its relievers.

On the whole, I expected the difference to be larger. In truth, the number of pitchers used per game is so close that it's likely that other issues dominate. For example, it's probably more important to consider how many consecutive days 4+ pitchers need to be used, as it's more difficult to keep bullpen arms fresh and effective when they need to be used to often.

Another thing I always look for: if my favorite team gets involved in a slugfest where both teams need to use 5+ pitchers, I like that game to be the opening game of the series. This ensures that for the next 2 games, the teams will be on even footing in terms of a tired bullpen. There's nothing I hate more than my team using 5+ pitchers in the finale of a series and then having to face a new team that had an off-day or a day where they used only 2 or 3 pitchers.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 14th, 2007 at 6:34 am and is filed under Game Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.