David Ortiz’s last 162 games
Posted by Andy on June 3, 2009
...not including June 2nd's game.
See the full page here.
So that's 27 HR and 113 RBI in his last 162 games. Those numbers are fine but a far cry from the 44 HR and 135 RBI he averaged each season from 2004 to 2007 (while averaging just 152 games.)
His OPS over the last 162 is .824--again not a terrible number but far below his career value of .923 and light years below the number of over 1.000 he averaged from 2004 to 2007.
The Red Sox have recently said that he is not currently injured but conjectured that his wrist injury from last year delayed his off-season training program and he's never really caught up so far this year. If that's the case, my opinion is that the team should send him to the minors and allow him to work out there, gradually get his swing back, and then return to the majors. There's no way this guy is finished.
June 4th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
I hate to say it, but Ortiz may be finished. I'm a Yankees fan, but I liked Ortiz way back in Minnesota, and to see a player of his stature suddenly appear impotent is disturbing.
Look at how many power hitters suddenly dropped off at that age--including some of Ortiz's top similarity scores--Trosky, Hrbek, Vaughn, Juan Gonzalez, Foxx, Zisk.
That's not to say Ortiz IS finished. Think Baylor's 5-HR season, or note the similarity between Ortiz's 2008 and seasons by Norm Cash or Tony Perez at that age. The difference is that Cash and Perez were consistent with those numbers before and after. Yet a 20 HR, 100 RBI Ortiz, while not nearly the same beast, would still be a dangerous player.
I know it's often said that the second half of a player's season is a good indication for what to expect the next year, especially if it shows marked improvement or fall-off from his previous normal. Ortiz, by that standard, should still be OK. But you can't overestimate what an offseason sometimes does to a big player at that age.
If baseball history has taught us anything, it's that a player can suddenly emerge or disappear at any age.