Brewers on the brink of 2nd series win in club history
Posted by John Autin on October 3, 2011
So much happened in the bottom of the 6th inning that I'll leave my discussion at that. Caveat: I did not see the inning, so if there's some hidden explanation for the events that baffled me when reading the play-by-play, I apologize.
First the obligatory stat note, then the crux of the matter:
-- Brad Ziegler's disastrous appearance in the 6th tied the postseason record of 6 batters faced without getting an out. Al Leiter set the record starting game 6 of the 1999 NLCS. The Mets got Leiter off the hook; Ziegler would not be so lucky.
-- The key play in the 6th was a beautiful safety squeeze by Jonathan Lucroy, with 1 out and men on 3rd and 1st. Ziegler gloved it moving directly towards the 1B line, giving him no angle to throw home, but he tried a Jeterian backhand push-pass, and the ball sailed by Miguel Montero as the lead run scored and the runners reached 3rd and 2nd.
-- Credit Ron Roenicke for putting on a play that exploited not just a frustrated pitcher -- Ziegler got visibly upset over a balk call, and then walked the hacktastic Yuniesky Betancourt on 4 pitches -- but also a defensive alignment that begged for a bunt to the right side.
Watch the video (especially the replay that starts at 0:30) -- 2B Aaron Hill was playing way up the middle and on the edge of the outfield grass, while 1B Paul Goldschmidt was holding the runner on. When Lucroy showed bunt, Goldschmidt charged in, and Hill broke towards the plate; he didn't veer towards 1st until he had reached the inner grass. By that time, he had no chance to beat Lucroy to the bag -- note where everyone is when Ziegler fields the bunt -- so even if Ziegler hadn't thrown home, Lucroy would have beaten the play unless Ziegler could have chased him down, an iffy proposition.
Was it a blown coverage by Hill or by Goldschmidt? Given where Hill was playing, Goldschmidt should not have abandoned his base, as there's no guarantee Hill could have covered 1st even if he'd gone straight there.
Or were they so completely surprised by the bunt that they didn't anticipate their assignments? If the latter, fault the scouting or the skipper: Lucroy had 2 successful squeeze bunts during the regular season, including a game-winner, and he got the job done on 6 of 8 bunt attempts (2 hits, 4 sacrifices). He made a good bunt this time, too, and probably deserved a hit.
Gibby gets schooled: If the inning was a shining moment for Roenicke, it was an utter flop for Gibson. Not only were his fielders in no position to defend a bunt from the #8 hitter, but he badly mishandled the aftermath.
The next batter was the lefty Mark Kotsay; lefties eat Ziegler up, so you have to do something there. Gibby went for the intentional walk, loading the bases with 1 out for leadoff man Corey Hart and hoping that Ziegler could induce his specialty DP grounder. But against the upside of a DP, the walk had at least 6 negatives:
- Hart is just a modest DP threat, averaging 12 GDPs in his 5 full seasons.
- Hart is a potent hitter, averaging .284 with 28 HRs the past 2 years, and he hits righties just fine.
- If you don't get the DP from Hart, you have to make another move, with LHB Nyjer Morgan up next.
- If you don't get the DP and one of the next two men gets on, you're facing Ryan Braun, a situation to be avoided whenever possible.
- Ziegler's emotions had to be running high; the inning was shaping up as a disaster entirely of his making.
- Putting extra men on base is always a risk.
Why not just bring in a different pitcher and pitch to Kotsay? Lefty, righty, whatever -- just a pitcher who doesn't get dominated by lefty batters. It's Mark Kotsay, after all.
But Gibson put all his chips on the DP. OK, at least that call has some rationale; get out of the inning down just 1 run, you're feeling pretty good. But what happened after that is a head-scratcher.
Hart foiled the strategy by singling home a run for a 6-4 lead. Bases still full, Morgan up. He has to bring in a lefty now, right? Morgan is a career .201 hitter against LHPs, while Ziegler has allowed a career .324 BA to lefties, .373 this year. And Morgan rarely gets doubled up. He has to bring in a lefty and force Roenicke to make a decision.
Gibson stayed with Ziegler. Morgan ripped the first pitch for a 2-run single, pushing the lead to 8-4.
Ziegler wasn't fooling anyone; 3 pitches had been offered at, and all 3 were put in play. Still Gibby made no move. Ziegler pitched to Braun, who took a ball and then singled home the 5th run of the inning.
Finally, lefty Joe Paterson came in to face Prince Fielder. Paterson won the battle, but the war was long since lost.
Different decisions by Gibson might not have led to a different result; after all, the Diamondbacks never scored again. But maybe they could have scored, if they'd only needed a couple of runs; they got 2 men on in each of the last 3 innings. Regardless, their manager's choices left a lot of questions.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:39 am
At the end of that video clip, the Brewer on base is giving some sort of claw/antler gesture back to his dugout. WHY? I have no problem with the celebrating, but didn't the Rangers start this last season? And now the Mets do it, and who knows who else. Why can't teams come up with their own celebrations. I mean, certain celebrations are universal. But some are obviously very different, and I think it's lame for other teams to start repeating them. Come up with your own thing, biters.
Of course, sometimes the unique becomes ubiquitous, and then I suppose the standards change. The New York Giants started the Gatorade showers in the mid-80s.* Whichever teams first imitated them were lame. But now it's such a cliche, it's no longer lame to do it. It's just expected. It's like giving a high 5.
Or all the teams that played "Welcome to the Jungle" at their home field/court. Or (for a brief time, thankfully) all the teams that played "Who Let the Dogs Out." If one team wants to use a song (whether it sucks or not) as their "theme" song, ok. But when everyone starts using the same song, it's just sad. You're not making a statement, you're just pathetic followers trying to pump yourself up on residual excitement.
* I'm sure I'll be corrected and learn someone else was doing it in the '70s.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:51 am
Yes, you will be corrected. It is called Beast Mode. Prince Fielder learned it from his young kids from the movie Monsters Inc. One of the big monsters growls and puts his hands over his head. Prince joked around about it in the clubhouse earlier this year but everyone thought it was funny and now the whole team does it.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/They-re-Monsters-Inc-Fielder-Braun-put-Brew?urn=mlb-wp21911
There have been several stories about this, but for some reason they are not known by fans baseball wide? I guess this makes sense, I mean if the Yankees or Red Sox had any sort of celebration probably only their fans would be aware of it.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:54 am
@1,
I've been feeling the same way for quite a few years about the fans of other teams that have adopted the Wrigley tradition of throwing opposing teams' home runs back on the field.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:56 am
JT, I thought the same thing watching those gestures. But then, they're pro ballplayers -- not generally the most creative folks.
BTW, I'm glad I took the time to watch the video of the Lucroy bunt. Over on ESPN, David Schoenfield apparently didn't; he knocks Ziegler's throw home by saying, "Take the out when they give it to you. ... [Y]ou'd have two outs with a runner on second...."
Ziegler did make a bad choice, but his only alternative was to hold the ball; there was no one at 1st base to throw to. He wasn't getting an out on that play.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/17038/brewers-benefit-from-d-backs-mistakes
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:00 am
OK, but basically it's a move where you put a hand or two above your head and signal to your teammates. Regardless the origin, it looks rather similar to what the Rangers were doing last season, and the Mets have done this season. Ergo, until I get more evidence, I declare it a BITE.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:01 am
It seems that Gibson was playing for the DP with Lucroy up, as well as later with Hart.
In that situation, down a run on the road in the 6th - do you bring the infield in to cut off the run at the plate? Maybe you do if it was 1-0 or 2-1, but in a 5-4 game, I'm guessing I would have been at double play depth too. But, perhaps with Hill closer to first than he was.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:02 am
How about a general criticism -- on-field ritual gestures of celebration while the inning is still underway, whether they're original or derivative, are tacky. I apply this knock to all teams, including my Mets.
I just can't imagine Willie Mays flashing a beast or antler sign after a big hit.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:04 am
I've been feeling the same way for quite a few years about the fans of other teams that have adopted the Wrigley tradition of throwing opposing teams' home runs back on the field.
Yes, I always thought that was a Wrigley thing. When did they start that? I feel like it's within the past 15 years but perhaps it's older? Anyway, it seems to have caught on almost everywhere now. At Yankee Stadium, the fans chant "Throw it back, throw it back" after any opposition homer, and boo if no compliance. I'm not sure when it started there but I'd say within the past decade.
Anyway, like the Gatorade showers, this seems to have become nearly ubiquitous. I thought that Rangers fan who made the catch and quick throw back in the Rays game the other night was great. So, it's past being a bite and is just now part of the game. But I agree Wrigley should be recognized as the originators.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:05 am
@6, Doug -- The game was tied when Lucroy batted, so I have no criticism of them playing at DP depth.
But Hill wasn't in ordinary DP position; he was way over by 2nd and very deep. If they didn't have a bunt coverage plan -- i.e., Goldschmidt holds his bag, and Ziegler has to cover the right side of the infield -- then that's a big boo-boo.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:08 am
I've been going to ballgames for over 40 years and still never got a ball. If I catch a home run from the opposition, I don't care what anyone says, I'm keeping it.
It's fine with me if others want to throw it back. But I abhor the peer pressure of chanting and booing.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:09 am
Signing off. See you all in virtual Motown on Monday night!
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:15 am
A careful analysis:
The Rangers Antler/Claw: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_YkjSsQFSv1k/TMeRSECBgBI/AAAAAAAACB4/Yg9fmsjNz0c/s1600/antlers.jpg
The Mets Spotlight (I thought they called this the "Spotlight," but I have more success finding photos under "claw"): http://gordondonovan.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/110720_citi_field_cardinals_C41G5995.jpg
Brewers Beast Mode: http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/prince-fielder-beast-mode.jpg
So. My impression is that the Rangers were the first to do this regularly. Elevated hand gestures directed back toward one's dugout. The "antlers" are definitely different than the others, in that the hands are kept close to the head. The Mets spotlight/claw seems to allow for one- or two-hand variation. The Brewers seem to have more aggressiveness in their pose. While a Met can stick a hand out just as if he's trying to catch a ball, the Brewer seems to exhibit more of a triumphant, exultant style.
Are other teams doing similar things regularly?
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:28 am
@9.
Hill looks like he's playing about right, if the hitter is a dead pull hitter and not likely to bunt. So, in other words, yes, he is out of position. And, his movement after the ball is hit - not going towards either first or second - is also baffling.
The guy who is really puzzling is the first baseman. He comes off the bag, but doesn't charge, when Lucroy squares, and then continues coming towards the ball after it's hit. When he realizes the ball isn't going to get to him (which should have happened almost immediately), he should have returned to his bag but instead he just ambles aimlessly towards the mound area, essentially becoming a spectator.
As you say, it appears they were not prepared for the bunt. But, even if it wasn't expected, still should have reacted to it better than they did.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:35 am
The Phillies are doing the Claw/Antlers thing. Chooch and Big Brown are the main culprits. Bogus.
Phillies fans have been throwing home run balls back since the new park opened several years ago. I think they were the second fan base to do it on a regular basis. Also bogus.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:51 am
Ill add that lots of NFL teams have copied the Lambeau Leap
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:10 am
On to the game breakdown. Please don't give credit to Ron Roenicke who has proven himself to be a tactical lightweight in his inaugural season at the helm. He has been routinely out managed by Tony La Russa and other more experienced skippers all season long (although that is true of most, the only thing La Russa can't seem to manage is how to stay awake in his car). He started Carlos Gomez and his .270 OBP in the 2 hole 38 games this season, Casey McGehee was given 600 PA with his 69 OPS+ (however this has finally been corrected and Jerry Hairston Jr. has started both playoff games at 3B) and Yuni Betancourt continues to be given regular playing time as the worst regular in the NL. Roenicke like to squeeze and has done it several times this year with Lucroy, including a walk-off in this game. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL201105280.shtml) He was going to call that regardless of the defense AZ was playing.
I think the real story is Gibson allowing his gut to get in the way of his head this series. I have no idea how he left Ziegler in there to get shelled today, but he also had another opportunity to pitch around Fielder and didn't in the 3rd inning with Braun on 2nd with 2 outs. Prince ripped one up the middle for an RBI single. I cannot fathom either of Manual or La Russa pitching to Prince if they don't have to in the NLCS.
I see Prince is listed 1 spot higher than Gibson on the player rater on this site, maybe it is more personal than anything else!
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:54 am
@16- Don't see how you can knock Roenicke for playing McGehee and Betancourt. You have to put someone out there and those are the players the GM provided. And as bad as they have been, looking over the Brewers roster it seems that until Hairston arrived they were pretty much the only options at their respective positions.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:59 am
@ 8
Johnny,
I don't know how long they've been throwing the HRs back at Wrigley, but it's been at least 32 years.
There is a play written in 1977 called "Bleacher Bums" set in the Wrigley bleachers, where one of the fans is encouraged to throw back a HR ball.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:59 am
34 years...sheesh, it's late...
October 3rd, 2011 at 6:21 am
I have often wondered about the tradition of throwing back opposing team's home run balls. Not who started it, but rather the purpose behind it. Throwing the ball back does not take the run(s) off the board, so why do it? Am I supposed to be sending the opposing team a message, "Hey buddy... you can keep your home run ball... I have... Umm... I have a high priced hot dog instead."
I recently saw a game in the new Yankee Stadium. Our seats were right down the right field foul line... right behind the pole. I literally could take two steps in either direction and be in fair or foul territory. If I catch an opposing team's ball on one side I have myself a souvenir, but if I catch it on the other side I am supposed to throw the ball back?
I have a home run ball hit by a major leaguer, and I am going to throw it back onto the field?
"Hey, how was the game honey?"
"It was awesome. I caught a home run ball in the fifth inning. But I showed those guys who's boss. I threw it right back onto the field."
"That's nice dear." (rolls eyes, shakes head... whispers to herself, "Boys are dumb."
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:55 am
@3...but you have to agree that Texas fan that caught the Tampa Bay homer in the CF grass, threw it back without missing a beat, then ran back to his seat, was pretty cool!
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:57 am
@16...I guess Roenicke is competent enough to have led the Brewers to the NL Central title over the immortal TLR.
October 3rd, 2011 at 10:21 am
In Toronto, if you throw a ball back, you get kicked out of the stadium for throwing objects onto the field. I agree with throwing people out for throwing objects onto the field, but throwing back visiting team HR balls? Gimme a break!
October 3rd, 2011 at 11:30 am
BJSG -- Eventually, all stadiums will ban the throwing back of baseballs. All it will take is for one player to be hit by a throw.
October 3rd, 2011 at 11:52 am
@24 - This. And then said fan will be signed and replace said player for not getting out of the way.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:08 pm
I agree with many people above on how stupid the "throwing opponents' home run balls back" is. Realistically, it's the only home run ball those people will ever catch in their lives, and they just want to get rid of it? What if Jeter's 3000th hit had been on the road? Would someone have still thrown it back? Hopefully not. If I ever catch a home run ball, no matter who hit it, I'm keeping it.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:20 pm
@ all above
But what if the fan throwing the ball back is a kid with a broken arm, and he manages a throw all the way from the bleachers to home plate? Wouldn't it be conceivable that said kid could be signed by the Cubs to pitch and lead them to the pennant by striking out the Triple Crown winner for the Mets in the NLCS pitching underhand because his mysterious abilities have failed him at the most crucial moment? And wouldn't eliminating throwing the ball back preclude this incredibly likely scenario?
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:29 pm
@27 -- What if the kid's throw goes all the way home and arrives just as Roy Hobbs, completing his brisk home run trot, picks up Wonderboy and inadvertently slugs the "pitch" into the light standards, causing explosions, chaos, and numerous trampling injuries?
MLB would then ban home-made bats.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:49 pm
There actually may be a decent chance that a 12 year old grandson of one of the owners could have managed the second MIL-AZ game better than Kirk Gibson however.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Ill add that lots of NFL teams have copied the Lambeau Leap
Yes, good one. That was a cool thing when the Packers started it. Then it got played out.
I don't know how long they've been throwing the HRs back at Wrigley, but it's been at least 32 years. There is a play written in 1977 called "Bleacher Bums" set in the Wrigley bleachers, where one of the fans is encouraged to throw back a HR ball.
OK, thanks. Any idea if it was a regular occurrence back then, as it is now, or just something that was done once in a while?
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:16 pm
I think so many teams have copied the Lambeau Leap because it's pretty much the only celebration still allowed under NFL rules.
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Referring to the title above of this post, one playoff series win in the Brewers existence seems to be on the very low side. I am not sure how to quantify it, but one series win in 42 years might be the lowest percentage (1 divided by 42 = 2.4%) of any MLB team.
Problem is, there was one "round" of playoffs until 1969 (the WS), then two rounds in 1969 with the divisions, then three since 1995 with wild cards, so it's hard to compare all 30 teams on an equal basis, particuarly between the "original 16" and the newer expansion teams.
The Marlins, Rays, Diamondbacks, and Rockies have all won at least two playoff series, so their "success %" would be higher than the Brewers.
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:42 pm
@32,
The Cubs have won 3 series in the history of the franchise: 2003 LDS, 1908 and 1907 WS.
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:53 pm
@33/ Evan - Thanks, but the Cubs' "Playoff success %" would be 3 divided by 107, or about 2.7%, still better than the Brewers. Also, till 1969, there was only one "round" of playoffs.
This is why I have "adopted" the Brewers as my NL playoff team this year.
@10/ John A. - I agree with you, I've been going to baseball games a long time, and have never caught a ball, never even came close till last year, when a foul ball whizzed past me about two feet to my left. If I catch a home run, I AM NOT throwing it back!
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Technically, the Cubs franchise has been around since 1876, even if the playoffs haven't been. Also, the one series win in the last 103 seasons (102 if you don't count 1994) is fairly noteworthy. The Nationals/Expos have never won a series.
The wild card era has definitely been the easiest one to win a series (4 out of 28 or 30 teams). In pre-division play it was 1 out of 16 or 20, though it was even harder during periods of Yankees dominance.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:22 pm
I think only the Red Sox should be able to do some derivation of the "high 5" as it is clearly demonstrated that move was invented by the 1973 Red Sox. Also the rear end swat should only be allowed by the Oakland Raiders as the 1976 Raiders started that move. The fist bump is only allowed by the Supersonics as the move was invented by Gary Payton in 1996. Alas, the Supersonics are no longer around so that move is banned.
(I hope this is recognized for what it is... sarcasm of how silly some of this thread sounds.)
Go Brewers!
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:37 pm
@35/ Evan - again, thanks. Well, technically, since the 1981 season had a split-season format, with the 1st-half division winners playing the 2nd-half division winners, the Expos DID win the NLDS 3-2 over the Phillies (though they lost NLCS to the Dodgers), so they are tied with the Brewers (both started in 1969).
Also, as far as counting total seasons, since it IS a "playoff success %", I am only counting years that had postseasons,even if the club existed before that (like the Cubs).
You did remind me that my numerator is incorrect: 1903 to 2010 is 108 years, but there was no WS in 1904 and 1994, so it should be 106, not 107 years.
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:21 pm
@30 Cubs fans were throwing back opponent hr since at least 1969. Read The Year the Mets Lost Last Place if you can get a hold of it.
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:34 pm
@34 I have indeed caught a foul ball, but catch is a relative term, it sort of bounced around until it landed under my seat. That was 36 years ago. It took me about six weeks before it dawned on me that the ball was essentially worthless so I gave it to my sister, who wanted it because the great Seaver had touched it.
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:38 pm
@26 The lesson: ALWAYS take a store bought ball with you when you go to a ballpark and will be sitting in fair territory. If called upon (for example, when an opponent hits a dinger and you catch it) throw the store bought ball back.
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:41 pm
If you go to so many games the cost of a store bought ball becomes burdensome, a peeled potato might do the job.
October 3rd, 2011 at 11:47 pm
If a guy doesn't want a HR ball, instead of throwing it back on the field, he should give it to a kid sitting nearby.
That would be a better tradition, I believe.