Recapping Sunday 9/25/11: SOX WIN!!! (a game … at last)
Posted by John Autin on September 26, 2011
-- Red Sox 7, Yankees 4 (2nd game): The ominous words from Michael Kay -- "Scott Proctor has not pitched well for the Yankees" -- were still hanging in the air when Jacoby Ellsbury cranked his 3rd HR of the doubleheader, a 3-run shot in the 14th inning that redeemed his own bad game to that point (1 for 6 with a GDP, 0-2 with RISP) and sent the Sox to what may prove a season-saving victory, snapping a 4-game skid. Boston holds a 1-game lead over the Rays with 3 to play.
- Don't be surprised if this propels Jacoby Ellsbury to the MVP. This is not an endorsement, just an observation. And while the win was only huge because of Boston's historic collapse, Ellsbury has not been swallowed by the swoon: he's hitting .368 this month, with 7 HRs, 20 runs and 19 RBI in 24 games.
- New York had 4 hits in the first 2 innings, building a 3-0 lead off John Lackey, but got just 2 more safeties the rest of the way, one in the 7th and one in the 12th.
- Lackey (6 IP, 4 runs, 3 ER) notched his first Quality Start in 7 games, and 5 relievers combined for 8 scoreless IP. Jonathan Papelbon got 7 outs, 4 by K, none bigger than his first batter, when he came in to end the 9th after Daniel Bard had walked the bases loaded (somewhat intentionally). Despite the long stint, Papelbon used a modest 29 pitches and had no more stress after the 9th, so he might conceivably be available Monday if absolutely necessary.
- Dustin Pedroia tried to score the tying run on an errant pitch in the 6th, but the ball bounced right back to Austin Romine and Pedey's running hurdle was of no avail.
- Kay was being kind to Proctor; in 8.1 IP, he's now yielded 5 HRs and 10 ER. He's allowed 10 HRs in 37.2 IP overall this year.
- Adrian Gonzalez went 1-8 in the twin-bill and lost the lead in the batting race to Miguel Cabrera, .341-.338; Michael Young (day off) is also at .338.
- Add Marco Scutaro to the select group of batters (now numbering 36) who have ever been intentionally walked by Mariano Rivera. Scutaro, who was 5 for 17 off Mo with a game-winning HR, 2 doubles (including one that triggered Rivera's last blown save back on August 7) and 2 walks, was given a pass in the 9th with 2 out and the lead run on 3rd; Jarrod Saltalamacchia swung over a wicked down-and-in cutter (what else?) to end the inning. Only 4 hitters ever received the ultimate respect of a 2nd IBB from Rivera: Junior Griffey, Edgar Martinez (who famously "owned" Mariano), Carlos Delgado and ... Paul Sorrento? (I guess you had to be there.)
-- Yankees 6, Red Sox 2 (1st game): As if Boston's free-fall needed further confirmation, they were dominated in broad daylight by A.J. Burnett. The struggling righty couldn't solve Jacoby Ellsbury (2 solo HRs and a single in 3 trips), but the rest of the lineup went 2 for 22 off Burnett, who had just his 2nd Quality Start since the end of June, both coming in his last 3 starts.
- Tim Wakefield allowed 5 runs (3 ER) on 5 hits and 5 walks in 4 IP, failing to notch a Quality Start for the 7th straight time as his season ERA rose to 5.12.
- Derek Jeter went 3 for 4 and raised his season BA to exactly .300, then sat out the nightcap. He's hit .346 in his last 63 games, starting with his 3,000th-hit game.
-- Rays 5, Jays 2: Two weeks ago, Wade Davis produced his best game of the year in a big spot, a CG win over Boston. He did it again today, holding the Jays to 2 runs on 3 hits in 8 IP. Tampa scored all their runs on 4 HRs, including the 3rd in 4 days by Ben Zobrist, this one staying in the park.
- The Rays took the season series from Toronto by 12-6 and hit 29 HRs, their most against any team, by far.
- Tampa's final series is at home against the Yankees, starting Monday night; they're 6-9 so far against the Bombers. Scheduled starters: Phil Hughes vs. James Shields, Bartolo Colon vs. Jeremy Hellickson and [undecided] vs. David Price.
- Boston goes into Baltimore; scheduled SPs seem almost irrelevant. The O's have won 9 of 13 and are 3-0-1 in their last 4 series, all against playoff contenders.
-- A's 6, Angels 5: Oakland scored 4 in the 9th to overcome a 5-2 deficit, dealing a crushing blow to the Angels' wild-card chances; they trail Boston by 3 games, with a "tragic number" of 1.
Jordan Walden put out a fire in the top of the 8th with the lead run on 2nd, preserving a 1-run edge. But after the Angels rebuilt the 3-run cushion in their half, Walden wobbled in the 9th. After a leadoff HR, 2 hits and his own throwing error put the tying and go-ahead runs on 3rd and 1st; Kurt Suzuki's double tied it, and Walden was lifted after an intentional walk to load the bases. Coco Crisp hit the first pitch from Hisanori Takahashi for his 2nd sac fly in 2 innings and Oakland's first lead, and Andrew Bailey closed out the Angels in the 9th.
- With a subpar 76% save conversion rate (32 for 42), can we conclude that Walden did a poor job this year? Only if you define his job strictly in terms of amassing saves. Before today, Walden ranked 10th among closers in Win Probability Added, ahead of such luminaries as Heath Bell and Joel Hanrahan, and 16th in Situational Wins Added (a ratio of WPA to the leverage index for each situation), ahead of Bell and just behind J.J. Putz. Walden's WPA for this game will be a significant negative, but he did earn some points for escaping the 8th. Overall, I'd rank his performance as about average; and looking at his raw numbers (10.1 K/9 and just 2 HRs in 59 IP) and the fact that this is just his 2nd season as a reliever, I'd say Walden has a bright future.
-- Nationals 3, Braves 0: Atlanta was blanked on 4 singles by Ross Detwiler and 3 relievers. The Braves have scored 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 20 games, going 1-10 in those games and 7-13 overall. Their lead on St. Louis is down to 1 game with 3 to go.
- The Nats have won 12 of 15 and finished with a 35-37 mark against teams at or above .500. They can finish above .500 overall by sweeping Florida in the final series; they're just 5-10 against the Marlins so far.
-- Cardinals 3, Cubs 2: The late-game reversals keep coming for St. Louis. They tied it in the 7th on Yadier Molina's 14th HR, and took the lead when Rafael Furcal went deep in the 8th, both off SP Randy Wells (23 HRs in 135 IP).
- Molina is having his best offensive year by far, now batting .305/.811 with career highs in HRs, doubles, runs, RBI and OPS+ (122 before today).
In other games:
-- Phillies 9, Mets 4: The Phils ended their 8-game skid behind Roy Halladay, but Antonio Bastardo's September swoon continued. Bastardo retired just 1 of 6 batters in the 7th; after whiffing the first man on 3 pitches, he allowed a full-count walk, a HR and a triple (each on an 0-2 pitch), a single, a wild pitch and another walk before being lifted. In his last 7 games (3.2 IP), Bastardo has allowed 9 hits, 9 ER (virtually doubling his season ERA), 7 walks and 2 HRs; he's struck out 3 of his last 27 batters, after fanning over 1/3 of all batters before this stretch.
- Jose Reyes (2 for 4) trails Ryan Braun (2-3, HR) by .333 to .331 in the batting race. Matt Kemp is 1 for 3 so far today, hitting .325. Kemp leads the NL with 120 RBI and is tied with Albert Pujols at 37 HRs; he also leads in runs, OPS+, total bases and both versions of WAR (BR, FG), and is 2nd with 40 SB.
- All the projections said that Carlos Ruiz couldn't repeat last year's .302 BA/.400 OBP. Maybe not -- but after 4 hits today, Ruiz is at .290/.379, giving him 3 straight years with OPS+ at least 105.
-- Rangers 12, Mariners 5: Each team hit 4 HRs, but Texas retained a 1-game edge on Detroit for the #2 seed and wrapped up their home slate with 52 wins, tying the franchise record set in 1978. (That club played 82 home games and 80 away, for reasons unknown.)
- There were 228 HRs at Rangers Ballpark this year, a 31% rise over last year. The Rangers' total increased 35%, their opponents' 26%. The Rangers surpassed 200 HRs for the 10th time in the past 16 years.
- Adrian Beltre now has 30 HRs: 23 at home (in 58 starts), 7 away (62 starts). If that's not the most extreme home edge in any 30-HR season, it's close.
- Ian Kinsler homered (#31) and had 2 steals, but was cut down going for #30, just his 3rd CS this year. The only 30/30 men who weren't thrown out at least 4 times were Alfonso Soriano (2005, 30 SB, 2 CS) and Carlos Beltran (2004, 42-3). Kinsler's HRs are almost balanced home and road, but his home OPS is more than 200 points higher thanks to a .296/.209 BA split.
-- Royals 2, White Sox 1: Here's a different kind of Mendoza Line: 1 run on 5 hits in 7.2 IP, and the 2nd win in as many starts this year for KC's Luis Mendoza. The 27-year-old righty has been bouncing between MLB and the high minors for the last 6 years; in AAA this year, he went 12-5, 2.18 in 144 IP as a swingman before his September call-up, and has allowed 2 ER in 14.2 IP.
- Gavin Floyd fanned 10 in 8 IP but took the loss, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits, all in the 6th inning.
-- Minnesota 6, Cleveland 4: The Twins avoided their 99th loss with a pair of solo HRs, tying the game in the 6th and going ahead in the 10th on a pinch-HR by Reno Tosoni. It was just the 2nd multi-HR game this month for Minnesota, who are last in the AL with 100 HRs.
- Cleveland needs 2 more wins to secure their first winning season since 2007.
-- Brewers 9, Marlins 4: Milwaukee set the franchise mark with their 55th home win, with 3 games still to go.
- Emilio Bonifacio led off the game with a HR, giving him HRs in 2 straight games for the first time in his 409-game career. He had 4 career HRs in over 1,500 PAs before busting out this weekend.
-- Reds 5, Pirates 4: It took 13 starts, but Dontrelle Willis finally got his first win in a season-and-a-half. As usual, he helped his cause at the plate, this time with a tie-breaking 2-run double in the 6th. (Did he get permission to use The Cobra's bat-waggle?) It was the 2nd time this year that Dontrelle put his team ahead with an extra-base hit in the 6th or later. Half of the 28 RBI events in his career have given his team a lead or a tie.
- Assuming no pinch-hit appearances, Willis will finish the season 12 for 30 at bat (.400) with 3 doubles, a triple and a HR, and just 3 Ks in 33 PAs.
Rockies 19, Astros 3: Kevin Millwood became the 4th pitcher with 2 HRs this season, and a lineup of mostly reserves set a club record with 25 hits -- in a road game. Six Rockies had at least 3 hits, another club record.
- It was the 4th road game of 20+ hits in Rockies history; they've had 25 such games at home.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:14 am
Sorry for skimming; I've just popped in for a nightcap after posting my recap.
Topper: "The pennant race is 6 months long."
I agree, and I've actually argued that side of things on many occasions; I've made a similar argument against over-weighting game WPA.
But I think it's undeniable that pressure to win builds up as the season progresses, and in the Brett example I described, the pressure in that final series with California was enormous. If you don't think it's tangibly harder to play your best under great pressure -- if you don't want to give extra credit for outstanding performance under late-season playoff pressure -- I don't get it.
September 27th, 2011 at 2:16 am
Yes the pressure is there but is it harder to be your best under pressure? The pitcher doesn't stand 50' away, so its not physically harder. If it mentally harder is that the players own fault for getting into his head?
I'm not sure, I fully understand guys getting nervous and maybe not wanting the spotlight with it all on the line, and also guys wanting the ball hit to them with the winning run on 3rd. But, should it be considered a skill to be able to play through this pressure, or should it be considered standard? Are we giving guys credit for things we should expect them to do? Is this like giving a first baseman credit (not a perfect example) for just catching the ball when we should really consider that a routine play? How many actual MLB players actually play worse in these situations?
Also, while I'm not sure if it is "harder" to perform, I understand the player knows this is the time to shine and I agree a player can play better than normal when he knows it really counts. This may be worth a lot of credit and I may be significantly undervaluing it. From my own personal I felt some nerves playing in the state semi-finals in high school, but when the game started it felt like any other game...except I was extremely devastated when we lost.
BUT, I think from your perspective you are thinking a player deserves this extra credit for playing when it counts. I am thinking the other guy doesn't deserve to be penalized for something out of his control, even if the other guy does deserve some credit. How do I know Jose Bautista wouldn't be carrying the Red Sox while Jacoby Ellsbury is putting up a fine but ultimately forgettable season playing second fiddle to the Maple Leafs?
I think the players who are penalized for not being in a playoff hunt are hurt more than the playoff guy is hurt if I decide to ignore any playoff contributions when evaluating his MVP credentials.
Also, speaking of clutch that drop by Ellsbury was pretty unclutch, yes I know it would have taken an amazing effort and he hit the wall really, really hard...but its in your glove you gotta hold on. You have so much more control of being clutch on defense than offense, and that drop showed me more about his unclutchness than the HR in NY did about his clutchness. I don't care if that was a top 10 most difficult catch in the history of baseball, if you are a clutch guy you catch it.
September 27th, 2011 at 2:39 am
Heh, who knew that going 0-6 at the start of the season would come back later to bite them in the ass? I think there's a lesson to be learned in there somewhere.
September 27th, 2011 at 5:25 am
How is Ellsbury MVP? He's not even the best centerfielder. Granderson has more runs, more RBI and more homers, for a team that had a better record. Stats that actually mean something, not some crazy formula that someone concocted and decided was the only stat we need. I've still yet to see any proof that WAR actually tells you how many wins a guy produces over his "replacement." I don't even think that's possible. A couple years ago, Justin Morneau was leading the league in WAR at mid-season. Then he got injured and missed the rest of the year, and the Twins actually had a better record with his replacement. The stat was wrong.
September 27th, 2011 at 6:45 am
I think you have to give credit for great performance in high intensity situations. If you want to see the flip-side of that argument, go back and read the posts on Carlos Beltran, an undeniably superior player who will never be forgiven for taking a called strike three.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:42 am
Hi intensity situation for the Red Sox maybe, but not for the team they were playing, who didn't need the win and had a pitcher in the game who has no chance of making the post season roster.
September 27th, 2011 at 4:15 pm
@102 -- "is it harder to be your best under pressure?"
-- Since you asked: Yes, it is harder to be your best under pressure.
"The pitcher doesn't stand 50' away, so it's not physically harder."
-- You talk as though success at the highest level of competitive sports were not much more dependent on mental strength and conditioning than physical, especially in the individual and semi-individual sports.
-- And it may be that the human body's chemical response to stress -- the release of adrenaline, etc. -- does, in fact, favor the pitcher over the hitter. I don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me if a pitcher in a high-intensity moment were able to get a couple extra MPH on his fastball. A hitter's task is more about concentration and hand-eye coordination -- skills that would likely suffer from extra adrenaline.
"If it's mentally harder, is that the player's own fault for getting into his head?"
-- You may consider such players at fault, if you consider it a fault to be human.
September 27th, 2011 at 4:19 pm
@106, Tim -- To my way of thinking, the conditions you described for the Yankees made it easier for them to put forth their best effort -- which, in turn, makes any achievement against them slightly more impressive.
September 27th, 2011 at 5:31 pm
"is it harder to be your best under pressure?"
-- Since you asked: Yes, it is harder to be your best under pressure.
You say this with such conviction I assume you have some tangible proof it is true other than anecdotal evidence from a few examples. What about the old cliche that some guys thrive on the pressure? If this is true does the game become easier for them, thus making their performance less impressive?
How do you know when someone is being clutch and someone is having a random hot streak? When looking at a players OPS broken down each month you will see some above and some below the season average because these things randomly fluctuate. Does it make sense to say from April - August a player's OPS randomly moves up and down due to all the variation in baseball, but now all of a sudden in September the guys with a good OPS are clutch and the guys with a bad OPS are unclutch, no one is having a randomly lucky month and no one is having a randomly unlucky month?
The other point, I think you may be making a somewhat common error, in my opinion, of holding a professional athlete to the same standards as an average person. Is it harder to play SS in the majors than in a bar softball league? Yes. If there is a sharp grounder right at your bar league SS and he boots it do you think come on or tough play that was hit really hard? If you cut him some slack does that mean you should cut an MLB SS some slack for an error on a ball hit right at them? No.
So, even if it may be more difficult to play under pressure, should we reasonably be able to expect a professional athlete to have the mental toughness to overcome this or should we hold them to the same standard as any random human performing anything under pressure? I mean there must be a lot of pressure to perform open heart surgery, but a Dr has so much training and experience I think people expect them to perform, if there are complications with the patient that is one thing but if the Dr screws up that is not acceptable. The added pressure may make the procedure more difficult but that may have weeded out all the people that couldn't handle it and the ones left all can perform under pressure, so when a Dr does this it is really nothing beyond what any other average Dr.
September 27th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
@109, Topper-you might want to look at the work of Martin Seligman of the University of Pennsylvania and Esa Saarinen of Helsinki Univerity of Technology, both of who talk about the role of positivity in creativity and accomplishment. Seligman might also be a Philly fan.
September 27th, 2011 at 8:27 pm
@109, Topper:
"you may be making a somewhat common error ... of holding a professional athlete to the same standards as an average person."
-- I think I'm holding a professional athlete to the same standards as other professional athletes.
Do you ever watch pro tennis? Of all the sports I've watched, that's the one where the individual's response to emotional situations -- pressure, of various kinds -- seems most nakedly on view, and where mental toughness (or a simple lack of self-consciousness) is most important. I've seen many obvious "chokes" in the late rounds of major tournaments. The most common type is when a player on the verge of an upset or a "breakthrough" win suddenly loses a fundamental ability -- double faulting, dumping easy balls into the net, etc. You can often see it snowball from the first mistake on a crucial point. I even saw it from the great Roger Federer in this year's US Open semi against Djokovic.
Baseball isn't tennis, and I don't claim that there's as much variance in the ability to handle pressure among the top baseball players as there is among the top tennis players. But I believe there's some variance.
I believe there's a reason that Derek Jeter materialized in the right spot in game 3 of the 2001 ALDS to make a game-saving play in a situation wherein he had no primary responsibility -- whereas Starlin Castro puts his head down as soon as his initial involvement in a play is over. I don't think Jeter's "edge" in this regard is huge, but I think it's real. There are countless other examples of this psychological difference among players with comparable ability.
"How do you know when someone is being clutch and someone is having a random hot streak?"
-- I don't, of course. But we might just as well carry that logic over to a player's entire season. Zoilo Versalles won the 1965 AL MVP playing well above his normal level in all phases (and he didn't win just because the Twins did; he really had a great season). Since it was in some sense a "random hot streak," should the MVP voters have taken a dimmer view of his performance than of other contenders whose play was more consistent with their established level?
That's the same logic as what you suggest. Ultimately, it doesn't matter whether we call Brett's '85 surge "clutch" or "luck" -- the fact remains that he did those things, and they had added value because of when he did them.
"there must be a lot of pressure to perform open heart surgery, but a Dr. has so much training and experience I think people expect them to perform."
-- Yes, that is a very high-pressure situation. I don't know whether there's a significant variance in how doctors perform in those situations, but let's assume for now that the variance is small.
But let's also try to imagine how those surgeons might be affected by performing in front of 40,000 people in an arena, with millions more watching on TV, knowing that their performance (good or bad) will be written up as national news, discussed and debated endlessly in bars and offices and blogs and talk radio; knowing that if they flub an important play, they may become infamous for the rest of their lives as Ralph Branca or Bill Buckner did.
It might be natural to assume that the pressure of holding another person's life in your hands is tougher than the pressure of playing in the 7th game of a World Series. I'm not sure that it is, though. I think people in general are more afraid of becoming a pariah or a scapegoat or the butt of countless jokes, than they are of being responsible for a death.
September 28th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
So Ellsbury is MVP because it's harder to hit against Scott Proctor?
September 28th, 2011 at 5:25 pm
Sorry Topper, but you just want to argue against everything that you can't definitely slap a number on -- Just being a contrarian in ways. Yes, it's great to question things, and quantify things, but please -- There's more to life than numbers and "the known". You admit that, " I feel like I should be giving playoff credit, however whenever I think about it and try to justify it to myself I can't". You can't because you don't want to!!............. because you aren't OK with things that you can't prove or know. You want to look at the numbers, and then walk away with your decision. Pressure is rea (i.e playoff pressure)l, clutch exists, and IT'S OK that some things aren't 100% quantifiable. You'll argue my angle is weak b/c I can't give you numbers...but really, that's my point. Life, and that includes baseball, does not exist in a vacuum.