Damon Joins the 200-400 Club
Posted by Raphy on September 13, 2011
Mlb.com is reporting that tonight Johnny Damon has become the ninth member of the 200 HR 400 SB club. Here is the club with their stats prior to today.
| Rk | HR | SB | From | To | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | RBI | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | SH | SF | GDP | CS | Pos | Tm | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roberto Alomar | 210 | 474 | 1988 | 2004 | 20-36 | 2379 | 10400 | 9073 | 1508 | 2724 | 504 | 80 | 1134 | 1032 | 62 | 1140 | 50 | 148 | 97 | 206 | 114 | .300 | .371 | .443 | .814 | *4/D6 | SDP-TOR-BAL-CLE-NYM-TOT | |
| 2 | Craig Biggio | 291 | 414 | 1988 | 2007 | 22-41 | 2850 | 12503 | 10876 | 1844 | 3060 | 668 | 55 | 1175 | 1160 | 68 | 1753 | 285 | 101 | 81 | 150 | 124 | .281 | .363 | .433 | .796 | *4287/D9 | HOU | |
| 3 | Barry Bonds | 762 | 514 | 1986 | 2007 | 21-42 | 2986 | 12606 | 9847 | 2227 | 2935 | 601 | 77 | 1996 | 2558 | 688 | 1539 | 106 | 4 | 91 | 165 | 141 | .298 | .444 | .607 | 1.051 | *78/D9 | PIT-SFG | |
| 4 | Bobby Bonds | 332 | 461 | 1968 | 1981 | 22-35 | 1849 | 8090 | 7043 | 1258 | 1886 | 302 | 66 | 1024 | 914 | 75 | 1757 | 53 | 16 | 64 | 107 | 169 | .268 | .353 | .471 | .824 | *98/D7 | SFG-NYY-CAL-TOT-CLE-STL-CHC | |
| 5 | Johnny Damon | 229 | 399 | 1995 | 2011 | 21-37 | 2410 | 10627 | 9477 | 1635 | 2709 | 514 | 107 | 1110 | 977 | 38 | 1220 | 47 | 57 | 69 | 93 | 101 | .286 | .353 | .435 | .788 | *87D9/3 | KCR-OAK-BOS-NYY-DET-TBR | |
| 6 | Marquis Grissom | 227 | 429 | 1989 | 2005 | 22-38 | 2165 | 8959 | 8275 | 1187 | 2251 | 386 | 56 | 967 | 553 | 44 | 1240 | 31 | 38 | 62 | 171 | 116 | .272 | .318 | .415 | .732 | *8/79D | MON-ATL-CLE-MIL-LAD-SFG | |
| 7 | Rickey Henderson | 297 | 1406 | 1979 | 2003 | 20-44 | 3081 | 13346 | 10961 | 2295 | 3055 | 510 | 66 | 1115 | 2190 | 61 | 1694 | 98 | 30 | 67 | 172 | 335 | .279 | .401 | .419 | .820 | *78D/9 | OAK-NYY-TOT-SDP-NYM-BOS-LAD | |
| 8 | Paul Molitor | 234 | 504 | 1978 | 1998 | 21-41 | 2683 | 12160 | 10835 | 1782 | 3319 | 605 | 114 | 1307 | 1094 | 100 | 1244 | 47 | 75 | 109 | 209 | 131 | .306 | .369 | .448 | .817 | D543/6879 | MIL-TOR-MIN | |
| 9 | Joe Morgan | 268 | 689 | 1963 | 1984 | 19-40 | 2649 | 11329 | 9277 | 1650 | 2517 | 449 | 96 | 1133 | 1865 | 76 | 1015 | 40 | 51 | 96 | 105 | 162 | .271 | .392 | .427 | .819 | *4/7D58 | HOU-CIN-SFG-PHI-OAK |
September 13th, 2011 at 10:12 pm
Still not a HoFer,but if he gets to 3000 hits he'll be in.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:20 pm
Not in my opinion. Being 8% above average on offense and essentially average on defense for 10000 PAs or so isn't Hall of Fame material.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:21 pm
Cooperstown will be calling JD.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:21 pm
2 I don't think so either but the voters are impressed by 300o hits.At least they used to be.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:23 pm
@3,
They just send text messages these days.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:32 pm
@2 How many guys are good enough to get in the lineup to reach 10,000 PA's? JD will go over 11,000 PA's next year if he plays. Every guy with more than 11,000 is either a HoF'er, a future HoF'er, or a steroid user. PA's are not an important stat and I'm not saying he should get in because of PA's, but nonetheless it is an accomplishment to be put in that many ball games.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:35 pm
@6 Sorry Rusty Staub and Harold Baines are over 11,000 PA's.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:40 pm
As I've noted before (though not necessarily on this blog), the only thing elite about Damon's game is his longevity. To me, though Damon is clearly not a HoFer, what bothers me the most about his candidacy is that it often overshadows the superior case fellow erstwhile Yankee outfielder Bobby Abreu, who is incidentally only 8 steals away from joining Damon in the group above, and should pass 10,000 PAs next year.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
Would guessed Jeter on this list and when I saw him missing, I assumed he must have been just short in HRs. Turns out he had more than plenty (230+) but "only" 330 SBs.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:48 pm
I just looked at Harold Baines's stats and saw that he was only hit by a pitch 14 times in those 11,000+ PAs. Is that the lowest HBP rate ever?
September 13th, 2011 at 10:53 pm
Right now, Damon is not a Hall of Famer. I think if he retired now, he'd be the kind of guy who the Veteran's Committee might have put in twenty-five years after his retirement. But he's edging up to the borderline, and if he plays long enough at a decent level, he's going to get consideration.
September 13th, 2011 at 10:59 pm
If Damon clears 280 home runs he'll be in the hall, if not, he won't.
Meaning, he needs 3+ more years like his 2011 to give him big enough cumulatives that he can't be kept out.
280.
September 13th, 2011 at 11:00 pm
Henderson and Bonds always ridiculously over-acheive on these lists.
September 13th, 2011 at 11:01 pm
Anyone every notice that 11 of Joe Morgan's 21 seasons were very unimpressive?
September 13th, 2011 at 11:19 pm
@10,
Here's some players that have him beat.
Garret Anderson - 9177 PA, 8 HBP
Doug Flynn - 4085 PA, 1 HBP
Mark Lemke - 3664 PA, 0 HBP
September 13th, 2011 at 11:20 pm
@10
As far as I can determine, for players with more than 5000 PA, Sandy Alomar, Sr. with 3 HBP in 5160 PA has the lowest rate.
@14
I have.
September 13th, 2011 at 11:20 pm
@14
He barely played in 3 of his 22 seasons - cups of coffee mostly - and of the remaining 19, 10 of them (which comprise a majority of his PAs) were with an All-Star level WAR of 5+. (WAR isn't the be-all, end-all obviously, but it's handy for approximations like this.) Of the other 9 full seasons, none were below average and most were respectable. They weren't great seasons or anything, but you make him sound like a Koufax.
September 13th, 2011 at 11:23 pm
@12: Why 280 home runs, specifically? The only counting stat that's going to matter with the voters is 3000 hits.
September 13th, 2011 at 11:28 pm
Because if all he does is slap singles he won't get there (3000 hits). Without speed or defense anymore, he must hit for some power, as he does currently. I think if he's got 50 homers left in his bat, ie, enough pop for 3 more productive hitting seasons, then the doubles, hits, runs, steals, etc will take care of themselves and his totals will be good enough.
September 13th, 2011 at 11:33 pm
@17 Morgan had good to very very good OBPs in his off years. That's about all that stands out. Just makes me say, 'meh'.
September 13th, 2011 at 11:42 pm
I've said it before and I'll say it again...
It helps that Damon has been well liked everywhere he has played. Remember, it is a vote... and right now Johnny Damon is in a middle of a candidacy for the highest post in the baseball land: Hall of Famer.
His campaign has made stops in:
Kansas City
Oakland
Boston
New York
Detroit
Tampa Bay
He helped end the curse in Boston. He helped the Yankees get back on top. If he gets to 3000 hits he will also be around 1850 runs scored - which puts him in the top 20 run scorers ever. His numbers will get him on the ballot. His hardwork on the campaign trail will put him over the top.
Where will the train stop next? Only his campaign manager (agent) knows:
"Congressman Damon... the polls show you are losing ground in the southwest... You need to sign a one year contract with the Diamondbacks."
September 13th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Joe Morgan never posted an OPS+ under 100 in seasons in which he played more than 10 games.
Joe Morgan never posted an OBP under 347 in seasons in which he played more than 10 games.
Joe Morgan had 7 seasons in which he posted a WAR less than 3.3. His PAs in those seasons (in descending order of WAR; age in parentheses) were 538 (35), 378 (37), 533 (34), 438 (40), 27 (24), 30 (19), 43 (20).
Considering he played 2B almost exclusively, I'm hard-pressed to say any of Morgan's full seasons were unimpressive, when accounting for age and playing time. If you look at traditional stats, like HRs or BA, I could see how you'd feel that way. But given what we know about those value of those stats, the value of different defensive positions, and the value of other stats (only some of which I've listed here), it's pretty clear that there are few, if any, seasons where Morgan could be considered anything less than at least "good".
And I'm no Morgan homer. Far from it. But greatness on the field is greatness on the field. And it is hard to make a sound argument against Joe Morgan with the information we have now.
September 13th, 2011 at 11:47 pm
what about dawson
September 13th, 2011 at 11:48 pm
im sorry about that i think he just missed 400 steals
September 14th, 2011 at 12:11 am
Dawson's in 400-300, a far more exclusive club IMO (I think it's just Bonds, Mays, and Dawson, although perhaps A-Rod as well if he's got the steals and Soriano could get there if he has enough left in the tank)
September 14th, 2011 at 12:21 am
Ricky just barely made the list!
oh wait... that's a 1 in front of the 406 SB's!
September 14th, 2011 at 1:05 am
@19: Damon's hit 22 home runs over the past two seasons and will probably end up with around 150 hits in both seasons. He doesn't have much power, but he still walks enough and hits well enough to be a slightly above average hitter. As long as he's hitting that well, he's likely to get regular playing time, though he's at the age where he could decline into a poor hitter very quickly. If he has two more seasons exactly like his last two he will end up with almost exactly 3000 hits, yet only 250 or so home runs. To reach 280 home runs would require either an increase in power or about 4 more full seasons, by which time he would be well past 3000 hits. He doesn't need to hit more home runs. He just needs to continue hitting the way he is and stay healthy for two more seasons.
September 14th, 2011 at 1:09 am
Anyone every notice that 11 of Joe Morgan's 21 seasons were very unimpressive?
No.
If you did, I think you're looking at the wrong page. Maybe Johnny Damon's?
September 14th, 2011 at 1:22 am
14 homers and 27 doubles in 134 games in the 2011 environment counts as somewhat slugging in my book. Some teams don't even have a guy with 14 homers if I remember correctly.
Change 10 of those homers into singles, and he wouldn't be able to get a contract next year.
September 14th, 2011 at 1:40 am
No remarks about Marquis Grissom.
To me, he's the guy who really stands out as not belonging with the rest of the guys in this group. Only 25.6 career WAR (half of Damon's current total), of which 24 was oWAR.
September 14th, 2011 at 1:41 am
In Morgan's final 7 seasons he averaged:
501 PAs
21 Doubles
11 Homers
50 RBIs
19 SB
.248 Batting average
.370 OBP
.388 SLG
Very nice OBP. He was terrific at getting on base. And the SBs are cute. But the other stats don't impress me. They don't stand out.
September 14th, 2011 at 1:57 am
So those seasons were "very unimpressive"? For a 2Bman? When the league averages were about .255/.320/.370? And the guy had already established himself as an all-time great?
If you have a point, it's escaping me. Morgan wasn't the best player in the league his whole career?
September 14th, 2011 at 1:59 am
His .140 isolated power over the past two years is essentially league average, and a bit down from his career mark of .149. He hit all of 8 home runs last year in 613 PAs. He's always had the kind of gap power that leads to plenty of doubles, some triples, and the occasional home run but he's unlikely to ever reach 20 home runs again, which he did three times playing in the hitter's parks of Fenway and Yankee Stadium. He'd need two and a half seasons of 20 home runs to reach 280, but he'll probably be hitting in the range of 10-15 home runs from here on out, which means it will take him more than three full seasons, by which time he will probably be well past 3000 hits.
His power comes from his extra base hits that don't leave the park. I said he doesn't need to hit for any more power than he has over the past two seasons, not that he'd be fine if he hit for less power, but even if we follow your little exercise, he's only slightly below average as a hitter. Subtracting 30 total bases gives him a slugging percentage of .360 and a season line of .260/.318/.360/.678. The league averages are .257/.322/.406/.728. Essentially we've taken an average hitter (his original line was .260/.318/.417/.735) with average power and given him below average power. His OPS+ this year is actually 108 due to the negative park effects of Tropicana, so he'd probably drop to something like 95.
Damon is a primary DH. The Angels, who are in playoff contention, have received similarly below average production from the DH spot (.236/.342/.367/.709). Coincidentally the Angels' primary DH is none other than Bobby Abreu, who not only has a better HoF case than Damon but also has a season line of .254/.358/.364/.722 - essentially the same hitter Damon would be if we took away his average power and gave him the ability to walk instead. Though he wouldn't command a very high salary, it's not hard to see Damon landing a job, especially considering the potential revenue that Damon's 3000th hit would bring in if he signs a multi-year deal. Damon is a usable player even if you take away his power, and will have no trouble getting a contract until he reaches his milestone, even if he doesn't hit 50 more home runs along the way. He has a good chance of making it there, and if he does, it will probably be with 250-255 home runs.
By the way, every AL team has a player with at least 18 home runs.
September 14th, 2011 at 2:19 am
@Twisto: Maybe I should put it this way. For a guy who played 19 full seasons, 8 of them were fairly average. Perhaps 'very unimpressive' is a little harsh. But for a Hall of Famer, I expected better.
September 14th, 2011 at 7:32 am
I was looking at Bonds' seasons and just now realized he only once reached 50 home runs.
September 14th, 2011 at 7:44 am
@35
and Bonds only led the league in home runs twice... or as many times as Ruth did before he left the Red Sox.
September 14th, 2011 at 8:09 am
Here's the thing about Damon's career that I never see mentioned. The reason that he's closing in on 3,000 hits is because he came up through the Royals system. Because the Royals were so bad, he got called up when he was young and was able to compile stats even though he sucked his first few years.
For example, his first full year in the majors he had an OPS+ of 73. With most young players, an OPS of 73 would get you sent to the minors for more seasoning. But not with the Royals. They kept sending him out there every day. And why not? He wasn't even their worst outfielder that year. Tom Goodwin played full time and only had a 70 OPS+.
The next year he was a bit better but still pretty bad (88 OPS+). But again, he wasn't the Royals worst outfielder. Tom Goodwin (71) and Jermaine Dye (69) were worse and only Bip Roberts (90) was better.
So basically if Damon had come up through any other organization, we wouldn't be having this discussion. He would have spent more time in the minors and would probably have 100-200 fewer hits. He was lucky and that luck may end up sending him to the HOF.
September 14th, 2011 at 8:17 am
Re: Morgan
Personality aside, from 1972 - 1977, Joe Morgan was the greatest offensive force in baseball. Coupled with the fact he was a decent, avergae + 2B in the field, it seems obvious to me the sportswriters/voters stole MVP awards from him in 1972 and 1973, and got it right in '75 & '76.
If you'll check out his "stats", it appears that he could beat you with the glove, the stolen base, the home run, and the guy got on base at a sick rate. Ran the bases as well as Bobby Bonds and Willie Davis, but stole a ridiculous amount of bases and did it at a high success rate....and you guys want to debate Johnny Damon compared to this guy?
Also, Morgan played in the Astrodome from '65 - '71. Go to baseball reference and click on that scenario finder and put him on the '67 Red Sox and see what those Houston years look like......and ask Bill James what he thinks of Joe Morgan as a ballplayer
September 14th, 2011 at 8:31 am
Regarding Joe Morgan, his OPS+ over his final 7 seasons, when he was 34-40 years old, was 114. Note that these seasons completely miss his brilliant peak.
In other news, Ryne Sandberg's career OPS+ is 114. Robin Yount's is 115. Lou Whitaker and Barry Larkin had career OPS+ of 116. These are all contemporary or slightly later HOF or HOF caliber middle infielders. If you think I'm cherrypicking by era, Doerr's career OPS+ is 115 (career high was 131), Frisch's is 110 (career high 131), Joe Gordon's is 120 (career high 154, but played 0 games after age 35), Lazzeri's was 120 (career high 159, played 81 total games in age 34-35 seasons).
Morgan's career OPS+ is 132, the same as HOF OFer Al Simmons, who, if you look at his age 34-40 seasons, averaged 70 games played with 6 HRs, 46 RBIs, and a .292/.343/.446 line, good enough for a 104 OPS+ in those seasons. And remember, OPS+ doesn't give Morgan a boost for being a second basemen.
He has a higher OPS+ than HOFer teammate Johnny Bench, and even a higher raw OPS than Bench (doing raw OPS comparisons for players of different eras is not really a good thing - I mean, Carlos Delgado has a higher raw OPS than Hank Aaron - but Bench and Morgan were contemporaries who played for the same team during their peaks).
I'm not sure what people want Morgan to do - be Rogers Hornsby? But from age 34 on, Morgan played in more games (863) than Hornsby had PAs (843), so it hardly seems worthwhile to compare them at those ages.
So Morgan wasn't Eddie Collins or Honus Wagner from age 34 on. But if that's the standard being used, the HOF is going to consist of 20, maybe 30, people.
September 14th, 2011 at 9:07 am
I agree, there's just no comparison between Morgan and Damon (except, after Damon retires, perhaps he could replace Morgan in the broadcasting booth????). There's rough parity in their cumulative stats, but Morgan put his up in a much less hitter-friendly era. And Morgan played a premium defensive position reasonably well while Damon has evolved into a singles hitting gap-power DH who you can stick out in the outfield if you aren't worried about throwing. Not being of Morgan's caliber isn't a dis of Damon, who has had a very good career on his own.
September 14th, 2011 at 9:13 am
@14.. Many could argue that the great Mantle had only 10 impressive yrs if that many.
Besides B Bonds, Henderson, and Biggio they all had somethings in comman. They all played for a long time. They were all baseball nomads.They all weren't considered gate attractions. For the most part, they were all top of the order guys. They all never had what people would claim to have gaudy numbers.
With that said. Somehow, someway, they ALL had some sort of "value" for teams to keep them around for as long as they did! There has to be something said for that alone.
September 14th, 2011 at 9:32 am
Damon matches up very well with Alomar offensively. I know...one's a 2Bman, the other a spaghetti-armed OFer/DH. But JD also never spit in an umpire's face that I'm aware of. He's in.
And how about the 100 (3B)/200 (HR)/400 (SB) club? JD and Molitor. Impressive.
September 14th, 2011 at 9:35 am
I'll never understand how this site can have a discussion about how unimpressive Joe Morgan is, despite having a 13 year stretch from 1965-77 where he had an OBP of .402 and OPS+ of 140. And, on the same site (same page even), have a discussion about Johnny Damon belonging in the Hall of Fame despite never having a single season with an OBP of .402 or OPS+ of 140. I can understand when people focus too much on stats and ignore some harder to quantify contributions the player made, but this seems to be the opposite.
When people say things like "if he gets to 3000 hits he'll get it", does that mean:
1. If he gets to 3000 hits you'll believe that he's good enough to be in the Hall of Fame?
2. Or, if he gets to 3000 hits that the voters will believe he should be in the HoF?
I tend to look at the player's peak. Unless your career ends during your peak, the last few years don't change the career. If you judge Johnny Damon by how good he was, it doesn't matter if he hangs on for 2 or 5 more years (unless he manages to produce a career year in that time).
#31 points out Joe Morgan's stats from his post-peak years as being unimpressive. But, if Morgan kept playing and produced another 6 unimpressive years with similar hit production, he'd have reached 3000 hits. He'd have then ended his career with 13 slightly above-average years, but he'd have reached 3000 hits. Would this have made him better or worse?
September 14th, 2011 at 9:40 am
...Willie Mays is the only member of the 660/338 club.
Morgan V. Damon.
This case would be thrown out of court.
Damon's best OPS+ is 118.
Morgan exceeded this 11 times.
Here are the reason's that Damon is not an HOF'er.
Tim Raines
Vada Pinson
Bernie Williams
Steve Finley
Luis Gonzales
Jose Cruz
Willie Horton
Tommy Davis
Willie Davis
Dave Parker
Al Oliver
Fred Lynn
Dwight Evans
Jim Wynn
September 14th, 2011 at 9:51 am
Why exactly are we bashing back to back MVP Joe Morgan whose team won world series both years?
As for Damon, he really is an unusual argument to make the hall of fame because there are so few players in the past to compare him to.
Then there's the post season stuff. If he didn't have that, it would easy to knock him out of HOF arguments a la Bobby Abreu but I was there the day hell froze over in 2004 when he hit the grand slam into the upper deck and then saw him five years later make the most famous double steal of all time.(? maybe that's debatable).
To me, his durability is note-worthy. Playing 140 games a year for all those years is impressive. Being in the 200-400 club is impressive as is the 200-100-500-400-2500 club with Molitor only.
I don't think the 280 HR threshhold matters. If he gets to 2900 hits and retires, then you're saying that Damon if not elected in would have both the most runs and hits steroid-free to not be in the HOF and that seems kinda strange for a guy who also stole a lot of bases, had pop and was a good influence around the dugout (so I hear).
Let's see who he measures up with when he hangs them up.
Also, if he plays 400 more games like Baines or Rusty, his stats will be too strong to keep him out.
September 14th, 2011 at 9:56 am
#44 It's a long list but if Damon keeps playing, he's basically going to eclipse them all stat-wise and the only ones HOF worthy on that list are Raines, Evans and Gonzalez. Pinson peaked too early.
September 14th, 2011 at 10:00 am
Here's Joe Morgan's top 10 comps from the end of 2010:
Lou Whitaker (849)
Roberto Alomar (830) *
Ryne Sandberg (803) *
Steve Finley (796)
Craig Biggio (779)
Derek Jeter (771)
Johnny Damon (763)
Tim Raines (762)
Bill Dahlen (756)
Julio Franco (744
I would guess Damon is even higher after taking 2011 into account.
September 14th, 2011 at 10:10 am
@ #44..Many of those players you listed were power middle of the order type players. How could you compare a top of the order,table setting type player like Damon with those men?
September 14th, 2011 at 10:49 am
From #45: "Also, if he plays 400 more games like Baines or Rusty, his stats will be too strong to keep him out."
What does it mean that his stats would be too strong to keep him out? I don't understand how reaching a milestone makes up for being a career 105 OPS+ hitter.
If Omar Vizquel plays a few more years he could have 3000 hits (needs 161), 450 doubles, 1000 RBIs (needs 56), 1500 runs (needs 68), and 400 SBs. That'd be an exclusive club*, but does that mean that we couldn't keep the career ~80 OPS+ hitter out of the HoF because his offensive achievements are so good?
The longevity is what's impressive. Accumulating good totals on counting stats is just a side effect, but not necessary. Whether Damon reaches 300 hits or not, it's impressive that someone can earn a spot in a team's starting lineup for so many years. I'm not sure if that makes it HoF worthy, but it's still quite an accomplishment.
* I don't have a PI subscription but it looks like there are 5 people currently in that club: Rickey Henderson, Ty Cobb, Craig Biggio, Paul Molitor, and Tris Speaker.
September 14th, 2011 at 11:03 am
This seems like a list Steve Finley would be on, but only 320 SBs.
I think it is pretty dumb when evaluating a player to say, even though we know how he did from ages 21-37, his HOF case depends on what he can do from ages 38-40. How should that even matter unless he is still dominating the league at those ages? Longevity HOFers are mostly crap, the only reason for their longevity is their "skill" or better, luck, at not getting injured.
You shouldn't need anything else to determine if Damon is a HOFer, who cares what he compiles as a has been. I think its an obvious no, but he is getting tons of extra credit for playing in the AL East and on a famous team that ESPN is still in love with. Same career all on KC and no HOF support at all.
September 14th, 2011 at 11:14 am
@46
The list was not meant to advocate as deserving of HOF status.
Only to point out that for Damon to be considered HOF caliber,
he should top this list. I am not a believer in a long career of
compiling stats as a barometer for HOF inclusion. Best
example I can give here is, what if Jamie Moyer wins 40 more
games pitching to age 52?
@48
Damon plays a position that has provided some of the great power
numbers in baseball history. The fact that he is more of a top of the
order guy did not enter my thinking.
I was trying to compare him to other OF's who were very good players
during their time. Let's say a notch or two below HOF.
September 14th, 2011 at 11:25 am
My guess is that Gonzo is:
(a) not making appropriate adjustments for the offensive context of many of the Morgan years that strike him as "unimpressive." For instance, 1982 with the Giants: Candlestick had a Park Factor of 93 that year; SF averaged 4.19 R/G; Morgan's .400 OBP was 81 pts. above the league average and his .438 SLG was 65 pts. above the league;
and/or
(b) undervaluing Morgan's "very very good OBPs";
and/or
(c) misinformed as to what's typical of a HOFer from age 34 to 40, particularly a second baseman.
September 14th, 2011 at 11:36 am
#50 I understand your argument but it's tricky. Some people need their full career to justify being in the HOF and some have it almost pre-determined by the time they are 27. When exactly did Jeter become a maybe HOFer into a likely HOF to a first-ballot automatic like he is now?
How about Rickey? When did he go from not being a first-ballot to being a first ballot?
Then there's the reverse. Nomar was going to the Hall but then fell apart. I might argue the same with Tejada.
Then there's Thome. When did he become a likely HOFer? Was it only last month?
That's why I think we can still say with Damon his case into the HOF is TBD yet he can still make it and still not make it.
September 14th, 2011 at 11:39 am
@51, I think Damon can be at the top of that list although I can't say he's at the top of that list yet. Keep in mind Raines, Evans and Gonzalez piled on a lot of numbers past age 37.
September 14th, 2011 at 11:40 am
@49
This is to verify those 5 names of your last sentence. I am not a PI subscriber either, nevertheless I was able to extract those names using PI.
September 14th, 2011 at 11:41 am
Re Damon & HoF,
Is he as good a baseball player/OF/power hitter/base runner/base stealer/OBA top of the order (1-3 in the order) as Abreu or Beltran? I think not and I believe it will be an awful tough roe to hoe for both of those guys to get in the Hall.
Just what part of his game is superior to Beltran and Abreu? Longevity? I believe Abreu has/had 13 consecutive 150+ games played seasons and Beltran will play at least another 3 years after the year he had this year....
September 14th, 2011 at 11:52 am
@54 - Tim Raines had 769 PAs, 11 HRs, 80 RBIs, 96 runs, 166 hits, 13 SBs, and a 98 OPS+ from age 38 on.
Dwight Evans had 851 PAs, 19 HRs, 101 RBIs, 101 Runs, 184 hits, and a 109 OPS+ from age 38 on.
I don't know if that is piling on lots of numbers or not - but to me it doesn't seem like a season or a season and a half of PAs adds a lot to the counting numbers. I have read where some people think that Raines hurt his HOF chance by hanging around those last few years.
Luis Gonzalez - well, he did add on a decent bit to his counting numbers as he had over 1500 PAs.
September 14th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
The Damon HOF debates just show that the old "we can make a group" idea is still on B-R. I am disappointed.
September 14th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Agree with 44- 'reasons Damon is not a HOF' I think if you look reasonably at that list (including Damon) there are three guys who at one stage of their careers were in the "Who is the best player in baseball?" discussion and Damon is not one of them. The three are Raines, Lynn and Parker. Obviously, Parker and Lynn both won MVP's. Raines had the misfortune of playing in Montreal, and as great as he was as a leadoff man, had the misfortune of playing in the era which contained the greatest leadoff hitter ever. The debate over Johnny Damon should end with Raines. Who would you want as your starting LF?
September 14th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
Johnny Damon simply is not all that similar to Joe Morgan, as the "Most Similar Player" comps do not adjust for how Morgan played in a well below-average opffensive era, while Damon played in the best offensive environment since the 1920s/1930s:
league average of triple-slash stats over their careers:
MORGAN: .260 BA/ .326 OBA/ .384 SLG (AIR of 93)
DAMON: .271 BA/ .340 OBA/ .426 SLG (AIR of 109)
Also, Morgan was kind of a unique player, as a 763 means "not really that similar, but this is the best the system can come up with", if I recall how Similarity Scores are set up. To contrast, Damon's age-36 scores range from 880 to 823.
This does not account for Morgan playing in one of the very worst offense environments in modern times in the Astrodome, when Morgan played there from 1963 to 1971 (AIR of 87/ 90/ 87 his first three full years there)
Morgan had an amazing six year peak from 1972 to 1977 that is among the best in MLB history, Damon has nothing remotely comparable. If Damon had the same career stats, but two serious MVP-type years, he'd have a much better HOF case.
Damon reminds me of Steve Finley (as @50/Topper009 points out), in that both were good/very good players for a very long period of time, and if you cherry-pick some of their stats, you can present a decent HOF case. But neither one of them has much of a peak, which I think really weakens their HOF case.
September 14th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Here is evidence that what Morgan did playing 2B from age 34 on is very impressive. Here is the list of current HOF 2Bmen and their careers after age 33: (list from HOF site, with Carew and Molitor added, since the HOF considers them a 1st baseman and 3rd baseman respectively)
Alomar: Last full year with OPS over 100, age 33.
Collins: WARs after age 33(3.8, 3.8, 5.6, 5.3, 5.2, 3.8, 2.1)
Doerr: Retired at age 33
Evers: Last season with over 100 games, 1914, age 32
Fox: WARs after age 33: 1.1, .3, 1.0
Frisch: WARs after age 33: 2.7, 2.7, 1.8, .2
Gehringer: WARs after age 33: 7.0, 5.3, 4.2, 4.5, .2
Gordon: WARS after age 33: 3.6, 1.7
Herman: Missed age 34 and 35 years b/c of WWII, put up 3.8 WAR at age 36 and was done
Hornsby: Only once played in 100 games after age 33 (100 exactly in 1931 at age 35, did have a 5.1 WAR that year)
Lajoie: WARs after age 33: 5.4, 9.6, 2.1, 4.4, 5.1, -.3, .9, -.6
Mazerowski: 285 PAs in 2 years after age 33
McPhee: WARS after age 33: 3.5, 3.0, 3.6, 2.1, 1.9, 2.3
Morgan: WARs after age 33: 1.5, 2.6, 3.3, 1.8, 5.1, 3.4, 1.5
Robinson: WARS after age 33: 7.3, 3.3, 2.8, 4.6
Sandberg: WARs after age 33: .8, 3.8, .7
Schoendienst: WARs after age 33: 3.6, 1.5, then part time player
Carew: Switched to 1B in 1976 (age 30)
Molitor: Switched off 2B as early as 1981 (age 24)
So Carew and Molitor changed position well before age 33; Alomar, Doerr, Evers, Hornsby, Mazerowksi, Sandberg, and Schoendienst had 1 or less good years left in them at age 33; Frisch, Gordon, and Herman were about 2 years from being done and were just above average players in those years. That leaves only Collins, Gehringer, Lajoie, McPhee, and Robinson with any considerable worth after age 33. 2 of them predate WWI (and one of those predates the Spanish American War) and only Morgan has played in the last 50 years (and only Morgan and Jackie in the last 70)
September 14th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
#60. As I don't think you intended to distort the argument of when a player is unique or not, I'd point out that your argument is not consistent. At age 36, Morgan was closest to Whitaker at 910 and down to 795 at Raines and he is only at 795 due to positional difference.
Can't predict the future and I don't know how unique or not Damon will be but being he and Molitor are the only two in the 200 100 500 400 2500 club, we'll see who he ends up closest to and who he doesn't.
Bringing up Finley is a good point. You can't have a Damon HOF argument without the Yes buts. Finley by the way played into his 40s.
September 14th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
@ 35 and 36
Barry Bonds: only member of the 400-400 club, 500-500 and 700-500 club
It's hard to lead the league in HR's or RBI's when you get the free pass to first as often as he did and draw 125+ BB's a season.
September 14th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
@62/ Dan Says: "#60. As I don't think you intended to distort the argument of when a player is unique or not, I'd point out that your argument is not consistent..."
Dan - OK, fair point, my argument was a little muddled, I didn't account for the age difference. Let me try to make it without the actual scores from "Most Similar Players":
There's a number of players whose career is somewhat similar to Johnny Damon now, but a lot fewer players whose career was similar to Joe Morgan. This will change if Damon plays full-time a couple more years. The fact that Damon showed up in Morgan's comps in comment #47 is an interesting little tidbit, but doesn't really advance his HOF case much for me.
Bottom line, Joe Morgan is overwhelmingly qualified for the HOF, while Johnny Damon is a marginal candidate right now, he has too many similar guys who are not HOF-worthy.
I also feel obligated to point out there was the "other" Joe Morgan, known in New England as Walpole Joe Morgan, who managed the Red Sox from 1988 to 1991 and won two division titles.
September 14th, 2011 at 4:21 pm
Here are Johnny Damon's comparables:
Tim Raines (887)
Vada Pinson (880)
Steve Finley (861)
Willie Davis (858)
Roberto Alomar (849) *
Jimmy Ryan (849)
Jose Cruz (840)
Mickey Vernon (839)
Al Oliver (837)
Kenny Lofton (834)
Except for Alomar, no HOFers; just lots of very good ballplayers. Unless he makes the magic 3000 number, he doesn't get in.
September 14th, 2011 at 6:28 pm
@15 and 16..thanks guys. I understand Flynn and Lemke. Why give them a free base. The others could hit a little. Were they so well liked that no one wanted to hurt them?
September 14th, 2011 at 6:30 pm
As I mentioned before, despite a decent season, Damon may have trouble finding a job next season. In recent seasons players of similar profile have found the market very dry. Unless he agrees to accept a very low base salary.
His WAR is higher than I expected for an average-hitting DH (2.5). WAR thinks all his little baserunning skills still add up to a fair amount of value. I guess we'll see if GMs agree.
September 14th, 2011 at 7:11 pm
When I was debating whether Damon would get into the HOF or not, I was not debating whether he should, which is a different case. I don't think he should, even if he gets 3000 hits, but if he gets there, I think he will.
September 14th, 2011 at 8:31 pm
Damon will find a job given the season he's had. There's no question. Maybe he'll have to accept a 1 year 2 mil contract, but he's good enough to get a job. Offensive numbers are down and he's still producing.
September 14th, 2011 at 9:05 pm
@65
Yes but if you use comparables thru age 36
1.Vada Pinson (880)
2.Paul Molitor (860) *
3.Willie Davis (860)
4.Roberto Alomar (849) *
5.Al Oliver (842)
6.Pete Rose (840)
7.Buddy Bell (832)
8.Tim Raines (831)
9.Lou Brock (824) *
10.Rickey Henderson (823) *
you get 5 HOF (I count Rose as HOF worthy)
Personally I think Raines should be in too, hopefully there will be a Blyleven like Sabermetric Push to get him in. So 6 HOF, plus Pinson, Davis, AO and Bell, 4 other very close players.
I think besides 3k, the other thing that might get him in is Runs scored.
If he plays 1 or 2 more yrs...he is at 1635, and has had at least 70 every yr.
1705, 1775,...
Every player w/ 1700 or more is in the HOF except players not yet eligible (bonds, rose, biggio, arod, jeter)
and 1775 puts him in top 20.
and for those that just think of him as a slap hitter, he is at 850 xbh, and has had 49, 48 last 2 yrs. 2 more yrs of 50 gets him to 950 + a few more this yr = 953. Molitor 953, Stargell, 953, Mantle 952, and more xbh than...
Willie McCovey, Rickey Henderson, Killebrew, Eddie Matthews, Paul Waner....
September 14th, 2011 at 9:23 pm
Matt Y, Jermaine Dye had a 102 OPS + with 27 HR in 2009. He didn't get an offer he liked for 2010. His defense was no good, but he was playing the field, which Damon mostly isn't, and he had received MVP votes in '08.
I'll soften my stance. Dye is the only guy I can think of who actually didn't get another job, but a lot of 35+ defensively-limited corner OFs have had a much tougher time finding deals in the past few seasons than they used to (M. Ramirez, H. Matsui, Damon himself). If Damon keeps waiting through the winter for a better deal to come along, he *may* find himself the one without a chair, or just hoping for an NRI.
September 14th, 2011 at 10:40 pm
@70 The problem is that none of those guys are particularly similar to Damon. Basically similarity scores under about 900 are fairly meaningless. I doubt any HOF voter is going to think of Rose, Molitor, Alomar, or Henderson when trying to decide if Damon's Hall worthy (Raines and Brock maybe).
September 14th, 2011 at 11:21 pm
@65 Metsmaven,
As someone pointed out, a lot of people he's compared to at age 36 are in the Hall. Also, that table is now a year old and I wouldn't be surprised to see Brock Clemente and Molitor replace Vernon Cruz and Lofton on next year's list and if he plays another full season Yount shows up too
September 14th, 2011 at 11:28 pm
My guess is Damon takes a 30-40% salary cut and gets 4 to 5 hundred PA's next year. His numbers are down but he's shown he can still hit this year and with 15 steals shows he's not dead on the basepaths either.
September 15th, 2011 at 12:16 am
A guy could win some bar bets on who had more triples, Paul Molitor or Rickey Henderson. And by what margin....
In re Damon, I did a bunch of searches on >100 triples and > 100 SBs with various numbers of HRs, hits, runs, and XBH, etc., and Damon is on a bunch of those lists, along with all-time greats and monster names.
Trouble is, he's usually at or near the weakest WAR player on those lists, and is merely in the company of greatness, but never quite there himself. His OPS is usually weak, WAR weak, good doubles and speed but not much else.
Being 20th best at a bunch of stuff is interesting, but shouldn't a real HOFer be tops at SOMEthing? Not just really good at stuff, but great at a few things? And not longevity or durability, either.
September 15th, 2011 at 6:59 am
@71 Johnny Twisto I tend to think you're right about the lack of job market for Damon. Next year he'll be a 38 year old DH who's coming off a poor 2nd half (.230 BA, .697 OPS) and who's struggled against righties (.672). No one's going to carry 2 DHs so no one's going to sign him to platoon. If he could still play the field, he could be a 4th outfielder but that's not going to happen either. Someone will probably sign him but he'll be on a short leash. If he gets off to a poor start, he'll be gone within a few months.
September 15th, 2011 at 8:12 am
@67..I feel the same way as you do. Of course I felt that way at the end of last yr as well.
Paul Molitor would make my all-time underappreciated list. That man was money, with very little (if any) fanfare.
September 15th, 2011 at 10:34 am
I completely agree that in this market declining aging players are having a harder time finding a team (Dye, Matsui, Abreu, Damon, even Vlad to a degree), but someone will likely offer Damon a contract IMO. So, I hedge a bit too, it wouldn't shock me if he struggles to find a team. At this point Damon might be more interested in finding at-bats than more money. I can see him taking a 1 yr 2 mil contract with a team that's willing to give him 450-550 at bats. Some of Damon's intangibles make him appealing and a good fit on the right club.
September 15th, 2011 at 10:42 am
I will say I find Abreu and Damon to be two of the most interesting players to debate at this time. In many ways, both players have carved out very good careers, but in very, very different ways.
September 15th, 2011 at 10:43 am
but there are also similarities between the two as well.
September 15th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
@78/79/80 Matt
I think the problem for Damon finding a job next year is that if he's limited to DH, then there are only 14 potential teams. But many of them have DHs signed for next year. So the market is really only 4-5 teams. And Damon won't be the only player interested in one of those spots. I think ultimately he does find a spot, but given his age and poor second half, teams will be quick to release him if he struggles.
I agree with the Abreu/Damon comparison, though OPS+ and WAR both show Abreu as the better player by a decent margin.
September 15th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
@81
I agree. He will get a quick release if he doesn't start out decently. To me you're making a bigger deal out of his relatively poor second half though. Overall, he's still putting up a productive year. WAR of 2.5 and OPS+ 107 isn't too bad.
Yes, in this forum Abreu is certainly a darlin', but Damon has certainly come up big in big spots -- I know that means little to most here. In many ways pretty comparable players. WAR is a great stat, but it's not an end all be all as some believe.
September 15th, 2011 at 10:12 pm
In Morgan's final 7 seasons, he couldn't hit. His batting average was only .248 - not impressive. No matter what stadium he played.
September 15th, 2011 at 10:31 pm
Morgan's last 7 years are a fabulous example of how BB are at least a tad overrated. He hit .248, but because of his walks (OBP still avg. around ~.370 those last 7 years) he still had an average OPS+ of ~115.
September 16th, 2011 at 2:14 am
And...what is the example?
September 16th, 2011 at 9:01 am
Morgan hit .248 for the last 7 years, with 5 of those years being .230-.240, and because he was a BB machine, he still had a WAR those last 7 years of..........1.5, 2.6, 3.3, 1.8, 5.1, 3.4, 1.5. I've said it before, I'll say it again, I know most here disagree, but BB's are a bit overrated.
September 16th, 2011 at 9:10 am
....and, he had a -3.7 dWAR those last 7 years. So, basically he hit .248, played shabby defense, was hitting 12 homers a year, stealing 18 bases a year, but because he was still walking 80+ times a year he had an avg. WAR those last 7 years of ~2.7.
September 16th, 2011 at 9:11 am
You left out the part where defense is accounted for in WAR. His oWAR stayed above 3 most of those years, which isn't overly great, but not a drain on his team by any means.
September 16th, 2011 at 9:17 am
Sure, take out his (Morgan) one last good season of 5.1 WAR, and his avg drops to ~.241, but he still managed to average 2+ WAR a year. I'll say it again that WAR is the single best metric, but if it wasn't for WAR (inflated by his BB's), Abreu wouldn't even be discussed as a potential HoFer. Sure, fine, he should be in the discussion, but no more than, nice player, seems to lack heart, definitively not a HoFer or even borderline HoFer.
September 16th, 2011 at 10:50 am
@89 Matty
I'll argue with you that "dWAR" is inaccurate and the greatest offensive force in baseball is a patient hitter (BB) with power who makes contact. I'll take Abreu and his lack of heart (and .400 OBA) and you take Damon with that girlfriend arm.
We've got a gazillion metrics in the "SABR metric" community to evaluate offensive performance and they all concur on the strengths and weaknesses of hitters and how to evaluate offensive performance. Unfortunately, we are not as far along on the defensive side (UZR, Range Factor, dWAR, 'defensive' Win Shares, when it comes to a consensus. I'll say it again, Ryan Howard is a horrible 1B, yet he's considered far superior by "dWar" to Prince Fielder. How? Howard became the first 1B ever to lead his team in errors - AND he did it three consecutive years....
BTW, there are no warts on Joe Morgan
September 16th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
I did address dWAR being involved Hawk. And my point is BB are a bit overrated, in that Morgan, as great as he was, had some "warts" the last 7 years. His warts were covered up a bit more b/c of his BB's.
And Paul, you can take 9 Abreu's without heart, and you'll never win a championship. Heart matters, and it often matters most in the most critical spots.
September 16th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
One of the biggest difference IMO (yes opinion) between Abreu and Damon was that Abreu always seemed to care more about himself, and Damon always seemed to just want to win....yes, as unscientific that might sound, I think there's some truth to it, and it matters when constructing a team. Don't get me wrong, Abreu is a fine player, but a fine player that is greatly overrated here at this site. I know the arguments, how can you say he's selfish with all those walks.
September 16th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Matty #91:
it's major league basebal-not 14th century castle sieges.... You want "heart"? How about a major league record 13 consecutive season of 150 games played? Yeah, that's right - Bobby Abreu. And if you don't thinkl that took "heart", how else would you explain the failure of every other major leaguer other than Willie Mays to do it. You must be from Philadelphia
I guess it was "heart" that made Damon come through in 2004 after all those prior shitty AB's ( 3 for 29) in the ALCS before Game 7
September 17th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
I get your point, playing 150+ games is nice, he's a nice player, but I've never seen a major leaguer more scared of a fence than Abreu. The guy would pull up 25-30 ft from any wall. Maybe it's unfair to hold it against him, but still. Also, managers have wanted at times to bat him second, and he would complain and insist hitting 3rd or 4th even though his power was marginal for 3-4th......even in his prime his power was marginal IMO. He's a very solid player that seemed more interested in "his" numbers.....and, hence is why he insisted on batting 3-4th or would never risk injury near a fence.
September 17th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
@93: FWIW: No, not from Philly, just a diehard baseball fan since early 70's. He's pretty much had the same knock on him wherever he's been. You can look at the numbers all you want, and yes the numbers matter, BUT, there's also more than just the numbers. According to WAR Vlad (59.0) and Abreu (59.0) have exactly same WAR (in same number of seasons), but there's a huge difference between the players IMO. One is a HoFer that will get in b/w years 5-12, and the other will struggle to stay on ballot after the first year......and, that seems about right.
September 17th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
And yes, I would argue that it was Damon's heart that made him take extra batting practice before games 5 and 6 of the ALCS (that series actually went 6 games, NOT 7) that helped propel him to a .364/.440/.455/.895 WS. In fact, before Matsui's big game 6, Damon would have won the MVP of the WS. A-rod was the MVP of the playoffs, but did only bat .250 in the WS.
September 17th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
To whoever mentioned Luis Gonzalez above, it's pretty clear he was a "juicer" IMO. He went from a rail that had 14HR power to a bulked up 40-50+ HR guy coinciding with peak steroid era. More of a sustained Brady Anderson type IMO.