27 Responses to “Most Pitchers In One Season With WAR >=7”

1. Steve Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 10:22 am

   Would have thought 68 would be way up there.

2. Steve Lombardi Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 10:24 am

   I'm amazed to see 1997. Look at the Hitters WAR list that a ran yesterday - there was a ton in 1997 there too. It's like 1997 was the year of the great season. Of course, PEDs may have be in play there.

3. Dr. Doom Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 10:40 am

   Justin Thompson!?!?!?!?!?!

4. LeeTro Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 11:18 am

   @1

   The bar was set so low in 1968 that it was nearly impossible to get that far above replacement level.

5. John Autin Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 11:41 am

   Yes, Justin Thompson! He had a very fine '97 season, in a tough run environment -- 223 IP with a 152 ERA+.

   Remember that, even after 2 lesser seasons, Thompson was still regarded highly enough to be the centerpiece of the trade that sent Juan Gonzalez to Detroit. (Alas, that trade didn't work out so well for either side....)

6. oneblankspace Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 11:49 am

   Replacement must have had a good year in 1968.

7. John Autin Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 11:59 am

   @6, LOL.

   You're right -- certainly, it was a better year than he had in 1995.

8. Cameron Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 12:18 pm

   The fact that there were 20 pitchers with a WAR above 7 in 1884 is even more impressive considering there were only 63 players to throw at least an inning and only 29 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings, the definition of a "baseball" was slightly looser then though.

9. Jason Says:
   September 3rd, 2011 at 12:35 pm

   Cameron-1884 was the first year that pitchers were allowed to throw
   overhand in the NL.

   Also that year in the American Association (the other major league), the
   rules stated that the pitcher must deliver the ball to home plate with his hand passing below his shoulder.

   These factors make it less surprising. Maybe replacement guy was
   still throwing underhanded.

   Obviously, with this rule change the pitchers were way ahead of the
   batters in 1884.

10. Voomo Zanzibar Says:
    September 3rd, 2011 at 12:40 pm

    The year after the Goose did it the White Sox made him a starter.

11. Doug Says:
    September 3rd, 2011 at 2:10 pm

    Curious phenomenon about 10 guys in1969, after only 3 in 1968. Hitters had a much better year in '69, as was intended by the rule changes (run per game up 0.65, or 19%, from '68). So, presumably, pitchers who were still able to maintain their form scored better in WAR than in 1968 because they separated themselves more emphatically from their brethren who apparently struggled with the new pitching arrangements.

    Also interesting how, with one exception (1997), there hasn't been more than 4 guys to do this in a year since 1977. Sort of dovetails with the introduction of the 5-man rotation, and the dawn of relief specialization. Hard for a lot of guys to pile up WAR with 20% fewer starts, and probably 1 or 2 fewer IP per start.

12. Steve Says:
    September 3rd, 2011 at 3:04 pm

    11 I think most AL teams still used 4 man rotations into the 80's.I f I remember correctly from my 82 Baseball Abstract.

13. Kahuna Tuna Says:
    September 3rd, 2011 at 7:22 pm

    I love the two 7-WAR guys from 1962. Turk, the pitching WAR leader, won 10 and lost 20, while Purk went 23-5.

14. Kahuna Tuna Says:
    September 3rd, 2011 at 7:24 pm

    Irv Young, 1905: 7.0 WAR. Career: 5.7 WAR.

15. steven Says:
    September 4th, 2011 at 2:15 am

    In 1969, three teams had two pitchers each on the list. The Cardinals had Carlton and Gibson, the Cubs, Hands and Jenkins, and the Giants, Perry and Marichal.

16. Brett Says:
    September 4th, 2011 at 1:34 pm

    Not an expert on WAR, so correct me if my thinking is wrong.

    In a year when hitters gain an advantage (such as 1969), I would expect "replacement pitching guy" to have a down year, brought down by the mediocre pitchers who became less than mediocre and the poor pitchers who become poorer. If this thinking is correct, it would be no surprise to see more pitchers in that year reach the upper echelon in WAR.

17. Doug Says:
    September 4th, 2011 at 8:43 pm

    @16, Brett.

    Based on my understanding of WAR, I don't think your reasoning is quite right. I believe the likelihood for players to achieve a particular WAR level is influenced by how much performance variability there is (i.e. variance from mean). My sense is 1969 would have a greater variance than 1968 because some pitchers who did well in '68 adapted and continued to do well in '69, whereas others who did well in '68 did not adapt so well and saw their performance decline. Those pitchers who performed poorly in '68 likely continued to perform poorly in '69 (unlikely rule changes would help them). Thus, overall replacement level dropped, but distance from replacement level (i.e. WAR) increased for those who were able to maintain a similar performance level.

    Hope that makes some sense.

18. Doug Says:
    September 4th, 2011 at 8:52 pm

    @13, Kahuna.

    Re: Turk leading in '62 WAR while losing 20.

    Turk wasn't the only 20-game loser to make this list. Among recent players, Phil Neikro in '77 (16-20) and Wilbur Wood in '73 (24-20) are also here. Neikro also got a 6.7 WAR with a 21-20 record in '79.

    Since 1901, Vic Wills (1902), Joe McGinnity (1903), Irv Young (1905), Ed Walsh (1910), Nap Rucker (1912), and Walter Johnson (1916) also compiled 7+ WAR while losing 20.

19. Doug Says:
    September 4th, 2011 at 8:55 pm

    @16, Brett.

    Sorry Brett about my response to you @17. Rereading your post, I think we are viewing WAR similarly.

20. Johnny Twisto Says:
    September 4th, 2011 at 9:11 pm

    Justin Thompson!?!?!?!?!?!

    I recall Rafael Palmeiro once calling him the second toughest lefty in the AL, after Randy Johnson.

    I remembered he was briefly a very good pitcher. Wouldn't have pegged him for a 7-WAR season. Total Zone says the Tiger defense did him no favors. He kept trying to rehab and kept getting set back. I remember a Baseball Prospectus annual begging him to just not pick up a ball for at least a year, let his body recover. In retrospect, it would have been worth a try.

    I didn't remember the Juan Gonzalez trade. I wonder what Texas knew of Thompson's health. He hadn't pitched the last 6 weeks of the '99 season. Gabe Kapler was also a big part of that trade. He'd had a decent rookie season and if I remember correctly may have been named minor league player of the year in '98. He would show different skills at various times in the majors, but never quite put it all together. Frank Catalanotto and Francisco Cordero turned out as the best parts for Texas, but I don't remember what was thought of them at the time (I probably hadn't even heard of Cordero).

21. Johnny Twisto Says:
    September 4th, 2011 at 9:13 pm

    I think a big reason for '69 is its being an expansion year. There are typically a lot of extreme performances in expansion years (Maris 61 HR, Carew .388 BA, etc). There are some other expansion seasons on the list.

22. Johnny Twisto Says:
    September 4th, 2011 at 9:17 pm

    Re #16, 17, etc: Replacement level is tied to average. I think it's defined as about 2 wins worse than average over a full season. So if you have players performing much further above average than usual, by definition they are further above replacement.

23. Brett Says:
    September 5th, 2011 at 1:06 am

    @Doug. I thought your explanation of '69 sounded similar to mine! I like it though - sounds more technical.

    The expansion year

    @Johnny T. - the expansion year phenomenon makes sense also.

    Seems like "replacement guy" should be built around the median player - that way a large group of expansion or otherwise poor players would not have as big of an affect (they wouldn't carry additional weight against the middle number for being exceptionally poor).

24. John Autin Says:
    September 5th, 2011 at 12:35 pm

    @12, Steve -- While the true 5-man rotation was not yet standard in the '80s, there weren't any true 4-man rotations left, either.

    In the entire decade, only 1 team was close to a true 4-man rotation. The 1982 Blue Jays got 119 starts from their top 3 pitchers (Dave Stieb, Jim Clancy, Luis Leal), and 139 from their top 4. They're the only team in the '80s to have 3 SPs make at least 37 starts.

25. Steve Says:
    September 5th, 2011 at 8:06 pm

    24 So,they basically used 4 but spotted a guy now and than to keep them pitching on 4 days rest?

26. yelly Says:
    September 6th, 2011 at 4:26 am

    if you have players performing much further above average than usual, by definition they are further above replacement.
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27. Johnny Twisto Says:
    September 6th, 2011 at 10:59 pm

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