Short-stack recap for Saturday, 8/27: Chronicle of a Storm Foretold
Posted by John Autin on August 28, 2011
Just 24 teams in action, thanks to the big blow. A few tidbits:
-- Despite one of his lesser outings (2nd-lowest Game Score of the year), Justin Verlander still collected his 20th win, thanks to a late rally after he'd wasted a lead. Detroit has won 8 of 9, keeping the pressure on Cleveland, who won to remain 6.5 GB.
- Verlander has won 8 straight starts and 16 of 18. The only longer streak by a Tiger since 1947 was 9 straight by Denny McLain in '68. The last longer one-season streak in the majors was 9 by Brandon Webb to open the 2008 season.
- It's the Tigers' 1st 20-win year since Bill Gullickson in 1991, and the 4rd in the last 38 years; Jack Morris did it in 1983 and '86.
-- Seven different Angels had an RBI, as they evened up their showdown series in Texas, 8-4 and moved back within 2 games -- 1 game in the A.I.L.C.*
- C.J. Wilson had held the Halos to 4 ER in 27 IP over 4 prior starts this year, and hadn't allowed a HR since July -- but they took him deep 4 times in just 5 IP, the first time he's ever allowed more than 2 HRs.
- * All-Important Loss Column, of course. Not many real races left, so I've got to squeeze in the cliches when I can!
-- Does anyone still think there's a race in the NL Central? Milwaukee won behind Yovani Gallardo, the Cards got spanked 7-0 at home, and the chasm is 10.5 games -- 4 more than in any other division.
- Gallardo had his 2nd 10-K game of the year, after having 7 last season. His K/9 is down over 20% from the previous 2 years (9.8 to 8.1 after tonight) and his streak of 200-K seasons will end at 2, but he has also cut his walks for 2 straight years, from 4.6 in '09 to 2.7 this year; his K/BB ratio is the best of his career. The ERA+ is about the same, but he's getting a little deeper into games, and will likely reach 200 IP for the first time.
- Seems like the Redbird fans realize their fate: the stands were only 81% full today. Some teams would be thrilled with a crowd of over 35,000, but St. Louis averaged almost 41,000 last year, and a Saturday game in a real pennant race is a guaranteed sellout. They didn't have a Saturday crowd under 40,000 last year until the final weekend, after they were eliminated.
-- Brett Myers still hasn't won a game since June 17, but he held the Giants to 2 hits through 7 IP. The Giants pulled it out the 10th on a 2-out hit by Jeff Keppinger, his 2nd straight "GWRBI." Their 2 "rallies": a leadoff double in the 1st followed by 2 groundouts; and a single, a steal, and another single in the 10th.
- In their series against the team with league's worst run-prevention (including the worst BA and most HRs allowed), the champs have scored 5 runs on 15 hits in 27 innings (no HRs, 3 doubles), in games started by Henry Sosa (6.35 ERA and winless in 3 career starts before beating the Giants), J.A. Happ (6.26 before) and Myers (4.95). But they've won 2 of 3, and live to fight another day. (And to think -- their fans called last year "torture.")
- SF's Eric Surkamp allowed 1 run in 6 IP in his MLB debut. In almost 400 minor-league innings, Surkamp averaged 10.7 K/9 with a 4.23 K/BB ratio.
-- Who's streakier than the Snakes? Their current 5-game march followed a 6-game skid, which followed a 7-game surge. For the year, they've had 7 winning streaks of 4+ (including two 7's, a 6 and a 5-gamer), and 9 losing streaks of 3+ (with a 6, a 5 and a 4-gamer). By comparison, the Tigers, with almost the same record, have had 6 win streaks of 4+ (with a 7 and a 5-gamer), and 5 losing streaks of 3+ (with a 7 and a 5-gamer).
-- Tampa edged Toronto, 6-5, and trail the idle Yanks by 7 for the wild card. They play 6 of their final 9 games against the pinstripers. Hmm.... (Naah.)
-- John (A Tale of Two Seasons) Danks pitched the game of the day, a 3-hit shutout of Seattle, tying career bests with 10 Ks and a 90 Game Score.
- In his first 11 games, Danks was 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA, 11 HRs in 70 IP and a K/BB of less than 2.
- In his last 11 games, he's 6-1, 2.03, with 5 HRs and a K/BB of 5.23. He was out almost a month straddling the Break, but has come back strong.
-- A tough way to break in: Washington 1B Chris Marrero, just up from Syracuse, made 2 errors that led to 2 unearned runs in the Nats' 6-3 loss to Cincinnati. Marrero did get his first big-league hit, though.
- The Nats hit 3 HRs (including Mike Morse's 22nd), but went 0-5 with RISP.
-- James Loney tied it with a HR in the bottom of the 9th, and Matt Kemp won it the same way in the 11th, drilling an 0-2 pitch from Jason Hammel for his 31st HR, tied for the NL lead.
- Kemp reached 100 RBI, 2 behind Prince Fielder, and is hitting .323, 13 points behind Jose Reyes and 9 behind Ryan Braun.
- Loney is 15 for 26 in the last 6 games, raising his BA 20 points to .274. The Dodgers have won a season-high 5 straight, 4 of them with Loney hitting #2 ahead of Kemp.
-- Boston swept 2 from the A's. Alfredo Aceves vultured a win after a long rain delay (which is not to malign his 3-inning scoreless stint), and is now 23-2 in his career.
- Forget the wins; the dearth of losses for Aceves is what's most unusual. Every other pitcher with over 200 career IP had at least 3 losses. (I do like the one guy who had just 3 losses: Luis Aloma, a Cuban reliever for the 1950-53 White Sox, went 18-3 with 15 saves and a 121 ERA+, and threw a shutout in his only career start, a 5-hitter against the '51 A's, who were #3 in scoring.)
August 28th, 2011 at 2:18 am
I like the word 4rd.
Adam Dunn is batting .163 The worst average ever and it isn't climbing. He is slugging below .300 which is pretty ridiculous for a player who slugs and does nothing else. Oh yeah, he used to get on base, but he's below .300 in that too. He and Ichiro, so consistent for many years, and now pretty useless suddenly. Ichiro somehow still has a small shot at making 200 hits this year, he would need 52 hits in 33 games. Strangely his dWAR is all of a sudden so bad. A -0.6 WAR this season for a guy who had posted 10 straight years averaging over 5.
Jim Thome ties the record for oldest player to homer on his birthday. He's been hitting them all to the opposite field lately, looks like a good adjustment he's made?
Jason Giambi, slugging .660. Surprised no contending team has taken a shot for him as their bench bat.
Juan Pierre, for all the flack I gave him earlier this year, is now batting .286.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:07 am
Reyes is going to fall off the AB/game required list for BA soon enough. Kemp's got a real shot at it.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:19 am
@ 2:
I was thinking the same. Back-of-the-envelope calculation of Kemp's chances:
- Kemp needs to hold or exceed his current production, without missing games (50%)
- Neither Fielder, Pujols, Stanton, Berkman and Uggla can go homer happy (20%)
- Ryan Braun needs to start batting .250 (25%), thus also decreasing Fielder's RBI chances
- Ryan Howard needs to chill out (90%)
- Jose Reyes needs to either slow down / lose more games to injury (40%)
In other words, he's got roughly a 1% chance. (.5 * .2 * .25 * .9 * .4)
August 28th, 2011 at 7:33 am
He's got less of a chance of getting the tripple-mosc though.
.392 OBP is 49 points back of Votto
253 ISOP is 31 points back of Berkman
47.9 RE24 is 14.5 back of Votto
Votto's 62 pts back in ISOP so unless he goes on a serious power surge and berkman decides to slap hit for the duration it looks like another year without the mosc-slam
August 28th, 2011 at 7:40 am
JA, you mentioned Desmond Jennings the other day, the rookie with the 1.027 OPS. He has 139 PA's right now, which obviously is a small sample size, but it isn't JD Drew '98 small anymore. Since Jennings doesn't have an "established" MLB level of play, how can we tell if he's isn't for real?
I mean, the greats have a habit of taking the league by storm. I recall Ryan Braun being called up in 2007, posting a 1.000 OPS in his first full month, and never looking back. Pujols did the same in 2001. Even good old Richie Sexson, the only major leaguer I share my birthday with, posted a very surprising .935 OPS in his extended '98 audition, yet you couldn't call it a fluke after he finished his prime with a .900 OPS.
Anybody can come up with counter-examples? Hot starts of over >100 PA's by guys that were obviously flukes?
August 28th, 2011 at 7:54 am
Jennings also has 13 stolen bases in 18 attempts, in only 32 games played. He was 13 out of 15 in his first 26 games this season before getting caught his last 2 tries.
That would give him one of the highest SBA/g in MLB.
Not quite an answer to your question, but Erik Hinske posted a 4.0 WAR in his rookie season, and then, despite ample playing opportunities and seeingly no notable injuries, he has never posted a WAR higher than 1.5 in the 9 years since.
Now my real answer to your question is Kevin Maas. He posted a 150 OPS+ in his first 79 game season with the Yankees. He fell off to 100, 98, 97, and 55 afterwards. But his hot start was even more impressive. Through his first 34 games, he had 13 home runs and a 1.037 OPS. But for his 406 game career, his OPS was .752 and he only totalled 65 home runs.
August 28th, 2011 at 8:22 am
Jennings wasn't tearing up the minors like puhols and braun. I can't imagine once he gets more AB's this year he's going to stay a full 200 points higher in ops than he was in the minors for 2011.
August 28th, 2011 at 9:05 am
11 hours in the rain at Fenway yesterday.
And the A's were out of both games early.
Somehow, "game" seems to be the wrong word.
August 28th, 2011 at 12:04 pm
@1, Jimbo -- If I can embiggen just one person's day, my mission is fulfilled. 🙂
August 28th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
Re: Desmond Jennings -- I agree that he's not likely to maintain his .600+ slugging. But I think he's going to have a good career. His speed and base-stealing ability is quite real -- in the minors, he averaged 60 SB with 11 CS per 162 games. He took walks and didn't whiff a lot (76 BB and 102 Ks per 162 G).
It's a shame he doesn't hit lefty; with his speed, it would add 20 points to his BA.
August 28th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
@5, Jacob.
"Anybody can come up with counter-examples? Hot starts of over >100 PA's by guys that were obviously flukes?"
Here's a couple of recent guys who had hot starts to careers that abruptly ended soon afterwards:
- Bo Hart (STL 2003), first 23 career games, 112 PA, .379 / .413 / .524
- Morgan Burkhart (BOS 2000), first season (95 PA), .288 / .442 / .493
Here's one who had a superstar-like start to a good (but short) career.
- Mitchell Paige (OAK 1977), first 30 career games, 114 PA, .377 / .450 / .719
August 28th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
FWIW, Jennings led off Sunday's game with his 7th HR.
August 28th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
... And he followed that up with his 8th HR, an inning later. 🙂
Thanks for the replies to my question, all. Kevin Maas! That's a long time ago. And I should have remembered Bo Hart, who was clearly a BABIP wonder.
August 28th, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Eugenio Velez of the Dodgers got to pinch hit today and drove in his first run of the season.
He got the RBI by hitting into a Fielders Choice on a bases loaded ground ball to short.
So for the 2011 season his is now 0 for 28.
August 29th, 2011 at 4:55 am
I remember watching Kevin Maas when he got started. Not only did he have 15 home runs in his first 42 games, but he also hit some moonshot fly balls that looked like no doubters off the bat but fell down on the warning track, and some booming foul balls.
I thought I was seeing the next Babe Ruth the way he was hitting, but he fizzled out quickly after that and never found that stroke again.
August 29th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Phil Plantier, 1991. 1.034 OPS; looked like the next Frank Thomas.
Had one decent season with the Pods a few years later, but mostly alternated between bench & DL.
August 29th, 2011 at 4:20 pm
Thanks for the good Gabriel García Márquez allusion in the title, John.
August 29th, 2011 at 4:24 pm
@17, Kahuna -- Don't give me too much credit; I thought it was Gabriel Garcia Marquard. 🙂
August 30th, 2011 at 1:44 am
Mario Vargas Llosa once popped Gabriel in the grill, but his baseball namesakes don't quite stack up.
(Crossing my fingers on the html.....)