73 Responses to “Tyler Clippard may set the Holds record. (Don’t laugh.)”

1. grafe Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 1:09 am

   Seems a bit lucky, 12 runs allowed on 9 homers? He's having a good season but that's a LOT of homers for a reliever

2. grafe Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 1:10 am

   What I mean to say is that he likely would have blown a few more games with a little less luck

3. Johnny Twisto Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 1:17 am

   All hail holds! And Clippard was a great Yankee!

   Good point by Grafe about the HR.

   In 7 bases-loaded situations, he's allowed no hits, no walks, not even a sac fly.

   In 12 bases-loaded situations, David Robertson has allowed 1 hit, while striking out 10.

   But I see he's allowed 4 runs. How did that happen? OK, the one hit (the first bases loaded situation he faced this season) was a bases clearing double. And then the last one he faced was a groundout which brought in a run. In between he struck out 10 straight.

   On average this season, 0.7 runs score per bases-loaded PA.

4. Johnny Twisto Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 1:46 am

   Further on Clippard's success vis-a-vis his HR allowed -- his BABIP is just .197, so it seems he's been a bit fortunate.

   In the past 10 years, there have been 824 player-seasons of at least 60 IP with at least 90% of games in relief. Of those, only 6 have resulted in a lower BABIP than Clippard (and of course his season isn't finished). I'm sure those guys all regressed quite a bit the following season. (Eyeballing it, I know for sure that Joaquin Benoit hasn't matched his success of last year.)

5. Johnny Twisto Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 1:55 am

   Active players moving up the career holds list (as everyone knows, the record is held by Mike Stanton with 266).

   Arthur Rhodes 250
   Scott Linebrink 155
   Kyle Farnsworth 154
   Damaso Marte 138
   Octavio Dotel 126

   Should I be surprised there aren't more active guys challenging this vaunted record? It's possible I overlooked some, not realizing such disposable relievers are still around.

   Mike Adams just got his milestone 100th hold. Unfortunately the game was on the road. But I see Texas drew a healthy 39,000 the next night, obviously there to witness the on-field celebration of Adams's mighty feat.

6. Johnny Twisto Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 2:03 am

   Unsurprisingly, Scot Shields' great run from 2005-8 accounted for 124 holds. Four straight seasons of at least 31. Only Rhodes has also had four straight seasons of at least 25.

7. RobMer Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 2:19 am

   The Yankee Clippard!

   I'm not sure what's funnier. That he may set the "hold" record, or if he does, the record was only just set last year by someone named Luke Gregerson.

8. Johnny Twisto Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 2:26 am

   Hey! Gregerson may be no Mike Adams, but he's a fine ballplayer.

   Gregerson/Adams/Bell must be one of the great late-game combinations, even though they were only a team from about mid-'09 to mid-'11. Of course, how many relief trios have co-existed at a high level for longer than that?

   Crossing my fingers on Soriano/Robertson/Rivera....

9. Doug Says:
   August 19th, 2011 at 2:38 am

   Look at John Axford and Craig Kimbrel. Virtually identical in G, GF, SV, IP and BB. But, Kimbrel noticeably better in everything else (H, R, HR, SO, ERA, WHIP).

   Yet, Axford is a full point better on WPA. Would seem his saves must have been a lot tougher (smaller leads, more inherited runners) than Kimbrel's. So, relative to Kimbrel, Axford is pitching in tougher situations and not pitching as well in them (albeit still pitching very well), but still achieving the same end results.

   So, should one infer that Mr. Axford has been a bit fortunate to achieve the level of success he's experienced? Or, is it just that Mr. Kimbrel has been so utterly dominating that his performance level far exceeds what would normally be required for the success he's achieved?

10. Doug Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 3:12 am

    Quick, which starting pitcher has the longest streak this year of pitching 7+ innings and allowing no more than 4 hits?

    Actually, it was Ricky Romero who already held that distinction with a 4 game streak heading into tonight's action. With tonight's 3-hit shutout of the As, Romero extended that streak to 5 games, tying him with these guys for the second-longest such streak since 1919.
    - A.J. Burnett 2007-08-22 to 2007-09-13 TOR
    - Dan Haren 2007-05-14 to 2007-06-04 OAK
    - Woody Williams 2001-08-31 to 2001-09-30 STL
    - Randy Johnson 1997-05-28 to 1997-06-19 SEA
    - Dave Stieb 1988-09-18 to 1989-04-10 TOR
    - Mark Langston 1988-09-03 to 1988-09-24 SEA
    - Nolan Ryan 1976-09-20 to 1977-04-07 CAL
    - Nolan Ryan 1971-05-04 to 1971-05-29 NYM
    - Mickey Lolich 1964-08-12 to 1964-09-05 DET
    - Billy Pierce 1957-05-21 to 1957-06-08 CHW
    - Bob Feller 1947-04-22 to 1947-05-13 CLE

    Not bad company for Ricky.

    Standing alone though is Johan Santana who had an 8 game streak in 2004 (Jun 15 to Jul 22). Despite his dominance, Santana was "only" 5-2 during that streak.

11. jim Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 7:02 am

    good to see the best relievers more and more not being shoehorned into the closer's role

12. Dan Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 8:15 am

    Is it also surprising that Washington's relievers Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen combine for the most WPA (7.17) of any two teammates among relievers?

    Second is Atlanta's Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel with 6.656 WPA.

13. birtelcom Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 8:49 am

    A full season WPA of 4.54, as Clippard's is now, would be the third-highest WPA season ever for a non-closer reliever (fewer than 10 saves for the season), behind only Mariano Rivera's 1996 (the year before he began his run as the greatest closer ever) and Rafael Betancourt's 2007.

14. Tmckelv Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 9:03 am

    @3, @7,

    Go Yankee Clippard! I am very happy for him. When I saw him introduced at the ASG this year I fell out of my seat.

15. Realist Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 9:03 am

    My conclusion from the above article is that Jonny Venters is the best reliever in baseball.

16. John Autin Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 10:20 am

    Clippard does have a high HR rate, not only this year but for his career. But when you rarely let anyone on base, a HR is less damaging.

    It may bite him at some point, but this year he's only allowed 12 runs on those 9 HRs. BTW, 10 of those runs were charged to him (2 were inherited), accounting for all but 2 of the runs on his ledger this year.

17. John Autin Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 10:27 am

    JT, I appreciate the dry humor about milestone Holds.

    I probably should have used a different headline, but I needed a hook and there it was. My real point is that he's done a superb job. Sure, there's some luck involved, as there is in most outlying performances. But I think the details of his blown leads are pretty impressive -- the only time he's blown a lead of even 2 runs, he inherited those runners in scoring position with 1 out, and if not for an E3 he would have been out of the inning unscathed.

    BTW, I'm probably guilty of having a soft spot for Yankees castoffs. 🙂

18. John Autin Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 10:37 am

    @15, Realist -- No argument from this corner about Venters. Teammate Kimbrel might make a case, though, for his dazzling strikeout rate -- 14.2 K/9.

    The O'Flaherty/Venters/Kimbrel trio clearly has the best "team" results this year -- combined stats of 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 184.1 IP, 11.0 K/9, 4 HRs, and only 3 unearned runs.

19. nightfly Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 10:48 am

    Once, I tried to "reform" the save. The proposal:

    1. The reliever must make his appearance with his team leading by no more than two runs; or the tying run must be on base or at bat.
    2. The reliever must preserve the lead.
    3. No save shall be awarded if the reliever fails to retire a batter.
    4. No save shall be awarded if the reliever is responsible for putting the go-ahead run on base or at-bat, unless the same reliever ends that inning. [You don't get rewarded for making everyone else's life harder!]
    5. Any reliever who meets the above criteria shall be awarded a save.

    The idea was to make it an actual reward for doing something important, rather than just finishing out a blowout win, or by tossing the last inning of a three-run game. And since more than one could be given, teams would lose the statistical incentive to use one's best reliever exclusively as a "closer."

    This would mean that Clippard would actually have 26 saves, not 31 holds. (He would lose his holds on 5/31, 6/17, 7/16, 7/30, and 8/12 because he had a 3+ lead and never faced the tying run.) And Storen would have 28 saves: he loses his six 3-run finishes, gains back two on holds (4/2 and 4/15). His third hold - June 5 vs. Arizona - would not be a save because he came in leading by three, nobody on, and left with the bases loaded and up only two. (Rule 4.)

    And all of this because I was annoyed that the guy who often really made the difference could get practically no credit, while some glory boy hogged the spotlight for being the last guy the manager used. I mean, if you lose the lead you get a blown save, so if you hold it, why not get an actual save instead of some phony-baloney thing nobody pays attention to?

    The irony is, it's the save, so even if it "works" it's kind of useless. But since I can't cure cancer, I'm stuck curing the save.

20. Kahuna Tuna Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 10:49 am

    Most innings pitched in a season by a pitcher whose runs allowed is less than twice the home runs he has allowed: Frank Smith, closer for the 1954 Reds, 81 IP, 29 R, 15 HR. Clippard 2011 currently has the sixth most IP on this list.

    Two other pitchers with 25+ IP make the R<(2*HR) list from this season: Koji Uehara and Tony Watson.

21. Kahuna Tuna Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 11:01 am

    Once, I tried to "reform" the save.

    Your proposal has a lot to recommend it, NF. Did you ever get a reply back from the Holtzman estate?

    (-;þ

22. Whiz Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 11:52 am

    I'm surprised nobody has commented on how low Mo Rivera is on the list (28th). In the past he typically is in the top ten (or better) in WPA among relievers:

    1996 3rd
    1997 16th
    1998 3rd
    1999 6th
    2000 12th
    2001 10th
    2002 41st
    2003 7th
    2004 5th
    2005 7th
    2006 10th
    2007 20th
    2008 2nd
    2009 2nd
    2010 21st
    2011 28th (currently)

    This will make two seasons in a row of reduced performance. He never has lead the league, but for his career he has WPA of 52.3, 18 more than second place (Hoffman) among pitchers who relieve in at least 80% of their games.

23. ano Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 11:53 am

    crap, i better go sell my luke gregerson rookie cards quick

24. John Autin Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 11:53 am

    @19, Nightfly -- That's an intriguing idea. I especially like the idea of allowing more than one save to be awarded in a game. Such a change would give managers political cover to break out of their current conformity in "managing to the stat."

25. John Autin Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 11:55 am

    @23, Ano -- Given the sharp drop in Gregerson's K rate this year, I would have thought you'd long since dumped the rookie cards.

26. John Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 12:35 pm

    Clippard's also tied for fourth in the majors in Fangraph's fun "shutdowns" stat. (i.e., relief games of a WPA >= 0.05), behind Venters, Axford and Brian Wilson.

    I'm a fan of that stat, and its converse, the "meltdown" (WPA <= -0.05). And as a little side benefit, monitoring shutdowns and meltdowns engenders an even greater appreciation for bbref boxscores, which are the only boxscores I frequent that list WPA for every player.

27. Va Nat Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    Thanks for featuring the vastly underrated Tyler Clippard's sensational 2011 performance. I've watched the vast majority of his appearances this year and the season he's having has been amazing. His percentage of swings and misses by opponents (28% of his strikes have been swinging strikes) is second only to Jonny Venters among NL pitchers who've played most of the season, and Clip does it without having a high 90's fastball. His chanegup (aptly called a "Bugs Bunny changeup" by Nats broadcaster F.P. Santangelo) is so good that it must make his 93-94 mph fastball look like it is a Strasburg/Chapman level heater.

28. stan cook Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 12:54 pm

    #19. Keep it up. My favorite is the save when the tying run is on deck-even if there are two outs in the ninth. I am sure this is a 98% situation for an average pitcher.

29. Cheese Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 3:10 pm

    I'll take holds over saves (and how teams under-utilize their best bullpen resources) any day.

30. Cheese Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 3:12 pm

    p.s. atlanta's 1-2-3 punch last night was awesome in reducing the game to 6 innings and beating another great Lincecum start.

    p.p.s. Will we see Lincecum's delivery again or is it all stretch now?

31. Timothy P. Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 3:18 pm

    @5 Twisto, nobody reads your comments any more! You should suspend posting here and take up another hobby. Football season is just around the corner, or in your case maybe there are some professional wrestling forums you can contribute to.

32. J Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 3:47 pm

    I know you mentioned it early in the write-up, but Holds in its current state cannot be considered valid. You can't come in to a game and let up 2-3 runs and considered to have held the lead, that's just ridiculous.
    Remove these holds from his record: #3, 8, 10, 18, and 29.
    I'll add my thoughts on saves in October.

33. John Autin Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 4:29 pm

    @32, J -- I believe you are mistaken. "Holding the lead" is not an ambiguous expression; you either held it, or you didn't.

    But in point of fact, a Hold is not simply "holding the lead"; a Hold is awarded only when the pitcher enters in a save situation, does not finish the game, but preserves the lead throughout his time in the game. In other words, a Hold is exactly the same as a Save, but without finishing the game.

    So Holds are clearly at least as "valid" as Saves. And if you want to get the definitions changed -- if you think a closer should not get a Save when he gives up 2-3 runs -- that's fine with me, but let's start the campaign by aiming at Saves, since that's what most people pay attention to.

    The specific Clippard Holds you mentioned were all save situations when he entered:
    -- #3: Entered with a 4-run lead and bases loaded; tying run at bat = save situation.
    -- #8: Entered with a 4-run lead and 2 men on; tying run on deck = save situation.
    -- #10: Entered with a 3-run lead and 1 man on; tying run on deck = save situation.
    -- #18: Entered with a 2-run lead and bases empty; tying run on deck = save situation.
    -- #29: Entered with a 3-run lead and bases empty; pitched 1 inning or more with a lead of 3 runs or less = save situation.

    BTW, he allowed 1 run in #18 and #29 -- you're outraged that he should get a Hold when he allows a run?

34. Kahuna Tuna Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 6:03 pm

    My favorite is the save when the tying run is on deck-even if there are two outs in the ninth.

    I looked into 2011 play results at the outer margin of the save rule (last inning with two outs and e.g., bases empty and a two-run lead, one runner on and a three-run lead, etc.), but I didn't turn up much that wasn't expected. The batter's slash line in such situations is .211/.276/.298 in 373 PA, with 4 HR, 32 RBI, 30 BB, 97 SO.

    However, I did find an odd thing for the two plate appearances in the bottom of the ninth, two outs, bases loaded, home team trailing by five. Both plate appearances resulted in an RoE. The more recent play, on August 10, was fairly routine, with Rubén Tejada (NYM) facing Heath Bell (SDP): "Reached on E4/attempted forceout (Ground Ball); Bay Scores/unER/No RBI; Baxter to 3B; Thole to 2B." Bell retired the next batter to seal the win; he did not get a save, presumably because he allowed the baserunners that created the save situation.

    Check out the scramble in the May 28 game, Johnny Damon (TBR) facing Chris Perez (CLE): " *ENDED GAME*: Reached on E3 (Ground Ball to 2B-1B); Kotchman Scores/unER/No RBI; Rodriguez out at 3B/1B-P-2B-C; Longoria to 2B." Without checking the news accounts, I figure Rodriguez must have overrun third. Matt LaPorta committed the error. Perez did get the save.

35. Neil L. Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 7:24 pm

    Who knew Tyler Clippard is toiling away in (to me) anonymity all season in Washington. Thanks for featuring jim, JA. He is having a Verlander-esque season hidden deep in the Nationals' pen.

    Starters have the Cy Young, closers used to get the Rolaids Relief award, but what recognition do set-up men or hold-men get?

    @11
    Jim, I don't have specific examples on the tip of the tongue, but my (probably unreliable) baseball instincts tell me that low-ERA set-up men are perceived to be too valuable to be left in that role and are converted to closers. I think that's why there are not huge career hold numbers, comparable to saves.

36. Neil L. Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 7:37 pm

    @22
    Whiz, Rivera's presence at the bottom of the list did attract my attention. I didn't want to be the first to mention it for fear of igniting a pro-Rivera pushback. And Papelbon doubling Mo's WPA for the season. I'm not sure what to make of their relative WPA's this year.

    Why is Brian Wilson nowhere to be found on this list? He is one of the save leaders in the major leagues.

37. Neil L. Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 7:55 pm

    @31
    Timothy P., why do you needlessly insult another BR member?

    I know JT doesn't need me to defend him, the quality of his thinking speaks for itself, but don't go there.

    I, for one, read and respond to Johnny Twisto's posts when I think I have something intelligent to add.

38. John Autin Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 8:16 pm

    @36, Neil L. -- "Why is Brian Wilson nowhere to be found on this list? He is one of the save leaders in the major leagues."

    Neil, such deadpan irony with a Twisto of sarcasm could spoil your earnest reputation! 🙂

    That question could be dubbed "The Case of the Purloined WPA" -- the answer is enfolded within the question itself, hiding in plain sight.

39. Neil L. Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 8:31 pm

    @38
    JA, you give me too much credit. I can only aspire to Twisto-level sarcasm.

    Thanks for the happy face in your gentle admonishment.

    I know the post was about holds leaders but I automatically assumed that if you save a lot of games you must have a reasonably high WPA.

    Sherlock Holmes I am not, I have no axe to grind with Brian Wilson.

40. Timothy P Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 8:37 pm

    I was totally kidding around with Twisto Neil. If you were to read Twisto's post #5 there is nothing controversial about it, I just wanted to let him know I was still lerking out here. I havn't been posting much and I missed missed his warm wit and subtle charm.

41. Cheese Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 8:40 pm

    As for toiling away on the Nats with no recognition...erm, he was an All-Star.

42. Neil L. Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 9:02 pm

    @41
    Yes, Cheese, but I live in a market far away from Washington. And how often do the Nationals appear in, pardon the pun, national media?

43. Neil L. Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 9:07 pm

    @40
    Timothy P., thanks for clarifying. My naive, conciliatory sensibilities were offended by yor post.

44. John Autin Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 9:08 pm

    @39, Neil -- Now I am guilty of overstating my point about Wilson.

    I would state the general relationship between reliever high WPA and high Saves as an "if ... then" statement flowing from left to right -- but definitely not an "if and only if."

    Over the past 20 years, 60 of the 67 relievers with 4+ WPA in a season also had at least 20 saves; only 7 were setup men.

    But, in that same span, of the 115 relief seasons of 40+ saves, only 36 (less than 1/3) had 4+ WPA; 30 of them had WPA less than 2, including 9 league leaders. Five actually had negative WPA for the year.

    (And BTW, no admonition was intended.)

45. Neil L. Says:
    August 19th, 2011 at 9:44 pm

    @44
    JA, maybe the bottom line of our dialogue, at least from my end, is the fact that saves get too much attention and effective, non-closing relief gets too little credit. My assumption about Wilson is a case in point. It was an uninformed, distant reaction.

    But there's no hiding from WPA, whether you've had poor closing outings, like Randy Gregg, Jon Rauch, or, this year, Mo Rivera.

46. Rich Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 1:51 am

    Anyone else think Washington uses him as the setup guy instead of the closer so when his free agent year comes up, he can't demand as much money? I do.

47. nesnhab Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 10:18 am

    It was a pleasure to discover this fact and the 1.58 ERA does indeed say a lot. It has been very enjoyable watching Tyler Clippard perform over the last couple of years. I can't remember anyone quite like him, and I've been a fan for a very long time.

48. John Autin Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 11:50 am

    @46, Rich -- Are you really suggesting that the MLB leader in such a major statistical category would not be richly rewarded?!? 🙂

    But seriously ... I doubt that that's the main reason Clippard doesn't close, but if it is, then bully for them. Ditto if they've kept him in setup because they think he's really their best reliever and they recognize that those situations are generally more important than 9th-inning save chances.

    But it seems more likely that it's just a coincidence. Storen was the 10th overall draft pick in 2009, and he's been groomed for closing all along. Clippard is your garden variety failed-SP-turned-reliever, a 9th-round pick in '03 whom they lucked out on after getting him in a minor deal with the Yanks in '07. Even the Nats had him starting until 2 years ago.

49. NatsLady Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 12:00 pm

    A couple of the homers Clipp gave up were when he had been overused (either 2 or 3 days of work in a row, or in the 2nd or 3rd inning of work), for example in a marathon extra inning game vs. Chicago where the Nats blew three saves, still eventually won the game.

    Although Clippard may be toiling away in Nats Town, he did get chosen for the All-Star Game, and was called upon in a clutch situation (where he gave up a single that Hunter Pence grabbed and threw out the runner at the plate) and he won the game. So his name will forever be in the record books as an All-Star winner.

50. NatsLady Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 12:02 pm

    Uh, no. The Nats tried Clippard as closer, didn't work. And believe me, the Nats KNOW Clipp is their best reliever. When trade rumors circulated, Davey Johnson (manager) said, "Clipp's not going anywhere. He goes, I go." He didn't say the same about Storen-- who, very luckily, did NOT get traded for Denard Span.

51. Neil L. Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 1:19 pm

    @49 @50
    Natslady, welcome aboard. Unless you're an old hand posting under a new screen name, I haven't seen you before.

    Cheese pointed out to me in #41 Clippard's starring role in naling down the all-star game win, Natslady. His work has only been obscure to people like me who navelgaze at their own local team. 🙂

    Any thoughts about why Tyler Clippard has excelled in the setup role more than a starter or closer?

52. John Autin Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 1:20 pm

    @49, NatsLady -- I wouldn't dispute that some of Clippard's bad games were related to his heavy workload. At the same time, a good bit of his value lies in being able to work often: he's 3rd in IP among pure relievers this year, and is on pace for 90 relief innings, a level reached by only 2 relievers in the previous 3 seasons, including Clippard last year. It wouldn't seem quite fair to credit him for that durability but also dismiss any negative consequences of his heavy workload.

53. John Autin Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 1:42 pm

    @51, Neil -- I'll take a shot:

    1. There's copious evidence that relieving is simply easier than starting. That's not to make light of those relievers who can handle a heavy workload, such as Clippard, but it's still not the same as starting.

    2. I'm not sure when it was that the Nats tried Clippard as a closer, but it couldn't have been a long tryout. He has just 1 career save in the majors and 1 in the minors; and of his 17 "blown saves" in the majors, only 1 came in the 9th inning or later (that June 24 game in which 3 Nats blew the save in the 9th or later). I would be very surprised if he didn't succeed as a closer if given a longer chance to prove himself.

    Conventional wisdom says there's a big difference between closing and setting up. But every single year, you see proven setup men pressed into closing duty, and many are "surprisingly" successful.

54. NatsLady Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 1:58 pm

    They tried him last year as a closer (2010). Not sure how long the experiment was.

    You are mistaken to call Clippard a setup man. He is the STOPPER. If you reference another article, you will see that his average is 3.8 outs per appearance. That is different (and more critical) than a closer who comes in with clean bases or a specialist who comes in and gets a couple of outs (i.e., a "lefty specialist).

    Clippard usually (but not always) comes in late in the game and gets the side out and works another inning (although not the 9th).

    As for durability, he's plenty durable BUT, because of the adrenalin he pours out, and he works from the windup with no men on base, he can be overused. The temptation for a manager has been to put him in in every close game, and he had a poor end of the year last year because of overuse.

    As long as the Nats have a good closer in Drew Storen (they are roommates), Clippard can be Houdini--just not every night. If you change his role to closer, then who do you have with nerves of steel who can get the side out with the bases loaded?

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110809&content_id=22963998&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb&tcid=fb_share

55. Phil Haberkorn in Indiana Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 2:08 pm

    TYLER CLIPPARD FOR H.O.F. !!!! Without guys like him, guys like Mariano Rivera wouldn't have much to "save," would they?
    🙂

56. NatsLady Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 2:12 pm

    I don't know why he didn't succeed as a starter, he was with the Yankees when he was tried as a start, so that is outside my area.

    As for being "better" in the role he is in, I think you have to bear with me and our team's philosophy that his role as stopper is more important than the closer's role. He seems to thrive in the crisis situtations, and being the closer is not a crisis unless you as closer make it one by getting men on base. As Clippard himself views it, his job is to get the ball to Storen. Then, and only then, does he feel safe.

    He's like an emergency room surgeon who operates under extreme pressure and then turns the patient over to a skilled team of nurses.

57. NatsLady Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 2:15 pm

    Oh, and, no, I don't think he is being used in his role to save money when he goes to arbitration (this year). Our owners are billionaires and not cheap (cf., the draft signing bonuses, cf., the Werth signing). There are two players on our team that the fans would not tolerate leaving the city--Tyler Clippard and Ryan Zimmerman. Never say never, of course, but, highly unlikely.

58. Neil L. Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 2:15 pm

    @54
    Natslady, I called Tyler Clippard a setup man also, not a stopper. Maybe we're just hung up on semantics, but I always thought the stopper, no matter how inaccurate, meant the save guy.

    In the context of JA's blog, Clippard is a HOLDER, not a stopper, I submit. He is "rewarded" for his effectiveness by the dominating WPA, compared to Storen.

    However, saves are the contract-boosting glamor stat, not holds, so Drew Storen, to the casual observer, cops most of the credit due to the lack of effective metrics for relievers other than the flawed holds.

59. Neil L. Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 2:18 pm

    To follow up on your analogy in #56, Natslady, unfortunately the critical care nurse will get a new contract worth two or three times that of the surgeon.

60. NatsLady Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 2:27 pm

    Neil, I agree with you on the sad state of metrics for evaluating relievers (this is much discussed on our local blogs), but last year didn't the Cy Young winner NOT win 20 games? Wasn't he with a not so great team? So people's view of relievers can change (I hope!)

    No, I'm not putting Clipp up for Cy Young--a general practitioner (starter) gets that, and probably should in terms of value to the team (and to a person's long-term health.)

    Keith Law was irate that Clippard and not Jordan Zimmerman was chosen for the All-Star. Jordan Zimmerman is and will be excellent. There are many excellent starters.

    But Clippard is once-in-a-generation. I am glad that he is appreciated for the job he does, not for a job people think he should do.

61. Barry1776 Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 2:34 pm

    Wow! That really is an impressive line! Thanks for pointing it out!

62. NatsLady Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 3:00 pm

    Neal, thanks for the welcome. I've never posted here before. Posted now because I'm a navel-gazer for my own team--and our guy is the topic. 🙂 🙂

63. John Autin Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 3:27 pm

    NatsLady, your articulate perspective as a Nats fan is appreciated.

    And I do like the term stopper -- that's what a relief ace used to be called. I especially like that term for guys who often come in with men on base, although (a) that's kind of a lost art in this era of planned 1-inning appearances, and (b) the list of relievers with the most inherited runners is cluttered up by lefty specialists (and sometimes even righty specialists).

    The leaders in inherited runners so far this year (with a 50-IP minimum to filter out some specialists):
    1. Chris Resop, 50.
    2. Clippard, 42.
    3. Jeremy Affeldt, 40.
    4. Jesse Crain and Glenn Perkins, 38.
    6. Hisanory Takahashi, 37.
    7. Matt Belisle, Jose Veras and Edward Mujica, 36.
    10. Matt Guerrier, 35.

    Obviously, not one of them is a closer, because closers start the inning, lah-di-dah. The only guy with even 5 saves and as many as 25 inherited runners is Matt Capps (15, 26). Fernando Salas has 22 saves, 21 IR. The MLB save leaders have inherited 10 runners combined (6 for Valverde, 4 for Kimbrel). John Axford (36 saves) has inherited ONE runner all year.

    Of the 25 pitchers with at least 25 inherited runners, Clippard's 81% strand rate is tied for 3rd-best.

64. John Autin Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 3:44 pm

    @55, Phil -- Funny, I was thinking that I should have made this thread a Hall of Fame debate. Those seem to generate the most response.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14231/comment-page-1#comment-139031

65. John Autin Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 4:54 pm

    I see that 10 teams are not directly represented on the Top 30 Reliever WAR list:
    -- Cubs, Cleveland, Colorado, Florida, Houston, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Seattle, Tampa, Texas, Toronto.

    Milwaukee acquired Francisco Rodriguez and Texas got Mike Adams, but most of their work was done for their first teams.

    The other 8 teams are non-contenders (or, in Cleveland's case, contenders only in a very weak division).

    Having at least 1 very good reliever is obviously not sufficient to insure contention, but it may be necessary.

    As an aside, if you ever wondered about the value of a starting rotation, consider the Royals: An average offense, good bullpen, but they're 24 games below .500 due to a rotation whose ERA is 29th in MLB. Their top starter, Bruce Chen, ranks 92nd in WAR among all MLB starters.

66. Neil L. Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    @62
    Natslady, echoing John at @63, don't let this be the only time you jump in here. We'll broaden your perspective beyond the Beltway. 🙂

    You make a lot of sense and seem like an intelligent, potentially objective, baseball observer.

67. Johnny Twisto Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 5:38 pm

    Clippard is once-in-a-generation.

    Let's not get carried away. He's had a few good seasons. This is his first dominant one. I think we could find two or three other good relievers somewhere around the majors.

68. John Autin Says:
    August 20th, 2011 at 10:30 pm

    JT, does that mean you won't vote in my "Tyler Clippard HOF" debate? I feel like I need a 100-comment thread to keep up with the Joneses, and a HOF debate is the surest way to generate some heat. 🙂

69. Johnny Twisto Says:
    August 21st, 2011 at 12:55 am

    Oh don't get me wrong, he's obviously on his way there. Just hasn't quite done enough yet.

70. Soundbounder Says:
    August 21st, 2011 at 5:33 am

    Both the Save and the Hold are in serious need of reform.
    A fun read though.

71. DMV: It Was a Big Day for Ian Desmond | Mr. Irrelevant, a D.C. Sports Blog by the Brothers Mottram Says:
    August 22nd, 2011 at 8:55 am

    [...] Pretty sure this means Tyler Clippard is the best RP in baseball. [BR Blog] [...]

72. NatsLady Says:
    August 22nd, 2011 at 8:56 am

    Yesterday represented another problem with the Hold/Save stat. Clippard comes in with game tied and pitches a clean inning, but doesn't get a hold. Storen (closer) comes in and gives up a run, but doesn't get a blown save. Nats won in the 10th, so he doesn't lose the game either. Of course that sort of thing happens to starters all the time...

73. Selective summary for Sunday 8/28 » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive Says:
    August 29th, 2011 at 12:19 am

    [...] allowed a single to load the bases -- then whiffed 3 in a row swinging? As noted by B-R sage Johnny Twisto, Robertson has been almost untouchable with the sacks full this year; his "123" line now reads 16 [...]