Friday notes, part deux: Postgame edition for July 22
Posted by John Autin on July 23, 2011
-- Jets 17, Raiders 7: The starting pitcher must go down, and he must go down hard:
- Trevor Cahill set a career high with 10 runs allowed (all earned) in 2+ innings, the shortest of his 84 career games.
- Phil Hughes had a 12-run bulge, but on a post-injury short leash, he couldn't go the 5, allowing 7 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks in 4.1 IP.
-- With a HR and 2B among his 3 hits, Jhonny Peralta is now slugging .549. Alan Trammell set the Tigers' SS record at .551 in '87. Only 2 other Bengals shortstops have ever slugged .500 or better: Carlos Guillen (3 times), and Dick McAuliffe (yep, he played SS from 1963-66).
- Tigers go up by 1.5 games over Cleveland, their biggest lead of the year. Those 2 clubs have been separated by no more than 1.5 games every day since June 6.
-- Two base hits for Adam Dunn, batting cleanup in his return from a 2-day rest ... and only one strikeout.
- Dunn has 125 Ks; the only White Sox who ever fanned more than 150 times in a season was Dave "Swish" Nicholson with 175 in 1963.
-- Thirteen straight losses for Seattle, one shy of the 1992 club record. To break the streak Saturday, all they have to do is beat Josh Beckett (2.12 season ERA; 20 Ks, 2 walks in his last 3 starts; hasn't lost to the M's since 2005, when he was a Marlin). Rookie Blake Beavan (2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) will go for his 4th straight quality start in as many tries.
- There's nothing like a dish of Mariner mousse to right a struggling pitcher: John Lackey came in with a 6.70 ERA, but held Seattle to 1 run in 7 IP.
- Adrian Gonzalez reached 80 RBI with a 2-run single, but still has no extra-base hits since the break, hitting .219 with 3 RBI in his last 7 games.
- Felix Hernandez took his first loss in Fenway Park; he was 3-0, 1.49 in 5 prior starts, including his only career 1-hitter in 2007.
-- J.P. Arencibia broke up the no-no by Colby Lewis in the 6th with a 1-out HR. The Rangers, whose 12-game win streak ended in Thursday's 1-0 loss, took this one 12-2, but lost Adrian Beltre to a hamstring injury that didn't look good. Beltre ranks 5th in Wins Above Replacement among AL position players, tops on the club.
- Lewis's 10th win makes Texas the 1st team with three 10-game winners this year. All 5 in their rotation have at least 8 wins; Yanks are the only other team with four 8-win pitchers.
- Through 6 innings, Nelson Cruz had 8 RBI -- RBI double, 3-run HR, 2-run single, 2-run single -- 1 shy of Pudge's franchise record. But the last 7 Rangers went down in order, keeping him from getting a 5th AB. Cruz saw only 6 pitches.
-- Vernon Wells (grand slam) has 11 HRs in his last 32 games -- and 3 walks. He has 15 HRs for the year, but a .223 BA and .254 OBP.
-- Dan Uggla's pinch-HR in the 9th gave the Braves a 59-41 record and a 6-game lead in the wild-card race.
-- Shaun Marcum went past the 6th inning for the first time in 5 weeks, and the Brewers took a 1-game division lead over the Cards and Pirates.
- Marcum did allow a HR for the 7th straight game, 1 short of the MLB season high.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:35 am
"Marcum did allow a HR for the 7th straight game, 1 short of the MLB high"
If anyone was wondering about this, I believe John means the MLB high this year.
The longest streak of allowing a homerun is 20 games by Bert Blyleven in '86-'87. He allowed 36 homers in the streak, almost 2 per game. Blyleven's record streak was sandwiched by two 11 game streaks he had, one in '86, and the other in '87-'88.
The longest streak within a season is 19 games by Curt Young of the As, also in 1987. Ramon Ortiz has the longest streak since '87, allowing 22 dingers over 15 games in 2005.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:46 am
@1, Doug -- Thanks for the gentle correction. I did mean to say "MLB season high," and have corrected the post.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:56 am
It is too late in the season for Vernon Wells to dig himself oit of tyhe statistical hoke he dug himself into. Nevertheless from June 10 through tonight he is slugging .548 and a .293 OBP in that period.
To me as in Angel fan, I try not to lok at the whole picture and look at him as a guy with an .841 OBP. In other words, in spite of the numbers John quoted, Wells is easily the biggest offensive threat on the team right now.
I am not sure how or why he turned himself into Dave Kingman the past 6 weeks, but he was of no offensive value before June 10th, and the offensive team MVP since then.
PS Did you notice he only has 7 2B in 299 PS this year
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:29 am
@3.
Good call, Spartan Bill, on the comparison with Kingman. There are only 3 qualifying batters who have had a season like Wells last 6 weeks, with OBP of 0.300 or less and SLG of 0.500 or more. They are:
Mike Jacobs, .299, .514, FLA 2008
Tony Armas, .300, .531, BOS 1984
Dave Kingman, .286, .506, NYM 1976
Nelson Cruz of the Ranger is on pace (.294, .505) so far in 2011 to join this group.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:34 am
@3, S.B. -- Seven doubles?! Ouch! And after hitting 44 doubles last year. (Angel Stadium is a moderately poor doubles park, but still.)
That reminds me, in a way, of Carlos Beltran, who went from 44 doubles in 2002 to a mysterious 14 in 2003 -- despite no other sign of offensive slippage: his BA went up a lot, as did his SLG, his SB and SB%, and triples. And then he averaged 36 doubles over the next 5 years.
BTW, I'm sure everyone's noticed that Beltran's having a big comeback year, but even I'm surprised to see that his 153 OPS+ (through Thursday) would be a career high, and he's missed only 5 games (3 with the flu).
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:36 am
@4 -- Quick-draw McDoug!
July 23rd, 2011 at 8:48 am
Speaking of Beltran, does he have any shot at the HOF? Does he deserve a shot?
He's approaching a 300/300 career, which is noteworthy, but not automatically deserving of induction. He's got 60 WAR at age 34, which means a handful of moderately productive years can put him well into the mid-70's. He had an amazing post-season run in 2004. He was a "two-way player", contributing both offensively and defensively throughout his career. OPS+ of 120, almost all of which came while playing a high-quality CF. WPA of 30 (top 100 all time).
My hunch is he falls short of the HOF, both in terms of deserving to be enshrined and any support he actually achieves. But he seems much closer than I initially would have guessed.
Beltran seems to have gotten a raw deal. His first year in NY was subpar and seemed to put him on the shit list, despite putting up fantastic numbers over the next 3 full seasons and was still highly productive when battling injuries. It is good to see him get the respect from NY Mets fans as he appears headed out the door, though it would have been better if they recognized him for what he was throughout this tenure: a phenomenally talented ballplayer who pretty much always produced when he was on the field.
July 23rd, 2011 at 10:01 am
With respect to Adam Dunn, you have to start somewhere, even with singles.
Dave Nicholson's 1963 strikeout percentage, 175/520 = 33.7 %, Adam Dunn's 2011, 125/344 = 36.3 %. So the White Sox record is in jeopardy if Dunn continues to get regular at bats.
I don't think he's likely to break his own record of 199 with Washington.
July 23rd, 2011 at 10:30 am
The Rangers feasted on Jo Jo Reyes. He was a great antidote to their two tough losses against the Angels.
I sincerely hope the Reyes "experiment" is close to being finished in Toronto. He seems like a heckuva nice guy but just can't get people out. He almost never throws a first pitch strike.
Reyes' ERA, after last night's debacle, is the fifth worst in the ML's, with pitchers of 100+ IP! Amazingly, though Happ, Carmona, Volstad, and Arroyo are worse as measured by ERA. Vasquez and Hochevar are not far behind Jo Jo Reyes.
He has been the victim of 12 unearned runs, so he hasn't been able to pick up his team when they've let him down. His runs allowed per nine innings tells an even more gruesome story.
There, I feel better, somehow. Frustration vented.
I guess there must be a variety of reasons for rotation spots being held down by such bad pitchers as the ones mentioned here. Presumably nobody better in the system or too much money owed to them to demote them.
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:41 am
I don't understand why Jo-Jo continues to be tried as a SP. It made sense a few years ago. It seems he's long past proven he can't succeed in the majors that way. He's never been able to handle righties. Put the guy in the pen where he might have a chance to help.
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:52 am
@10, JT -- It pains me to hear you suggest the creation of yet another LOOGY. 🙂
July 23rd, 2011 at 12:13 pm
@10
Johnny, I suppose it's partly because he throws left-handed, but I think, more importantly, it is the mind-clouding, tantalizing carrot of "reasonably good stuff". Managers and general managers keep thinking that a pitcher if he is a reasonably hard thrower he will eventually turn it around, despite the stats.
But what about some of the other names on this year's high-ERA list? What is their future and why are GM's sticking with them?
July 23rd, 2011 at 12:22 pm
@12, I'll take a stab at one of those high-ERA pitchers:
-- J.A. Happ was the main player Houston got in the Oswalt trade, so they're rooting hard for his success. And Happ did have a 133 ERA+ in 2009-10 combined, and this year he has a career-high K rate. Unfortunately, his BB/9 and H/9 are also career highs. But it's too soon to give up on a 28-year-old with a career 102 ERA+. And the Astros aren't playing for much this year, anyway.
July 23rd, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Generally, Neil, I think you're just noticing that teams tend to stick with the devil they know, especially if he's ever had success at the MLB level.
Fausto Carmona, for instance, has a career 92 ERA+, but his results were pretty good last year and very good in '07, when he placed 4th in the CYA vote.
There also seems to be a fascination with retread veterans on cheap contracts. Rodrigo Lopez from 2005-10 had a combined 5.18 ERA and 85 ERA+, which is just about what he did last season. It's hard to imagine why the Cubs would thought he would give them anything of value this year at age 35. On the other hand, he has pitched pretty well for them, especially since moving into the rotation, with a 1.85 ERA in 4 starts. Unlikely to last, but somehow a small positive sample seems to linger in the mind more than a larger negative sample.
July 23rd, 2011 at 12:47 pm
MN came out of the break, 6 out, with KC, CLE, and now DET lined up. I'm thinking, "Great, we can be damn close to first, if not there, after these next two weeks."
Way to go guys.....hey front office, I'm stunned too, that Brian Duensing, isn't that number one ace, that can pick a team up, when they need it.
Maybe it would be better, to quit pretending that there is actually any attempt, to develop legitimate major-league pitching, and just switch to a staff of 12 knuckleballers.
I'll beat the dead horse again, and say that it was BS, that they traded Santana, because of.........financial concerns......while the new cash-cow stadium was being built. Sure he's missed this whole year, but, who knows how it all turns out, had he stayed in MN?
Now, instead, they are paying 60-year old has-been never-was Pavano 7 million for this year.....
urrrggghh.
July 23rd, 2011 at 12:54 pm
(More to #14...)
I thing that one of the many factors in this trend is the continuing faith in "eyewitness scouting" and the natural tendency to pick out some visible reason for a pitcher's success or failure from the maelstrom of information. How many times have you heard a manager, coach, GM or analyst say, "When he was going good, he was [doing X]," or "We got him to stop tipping his curveball"
Some of those observations may be grounded in hard facts, but in the big picture, the human brain's hard-wired overemphasis on finding a convenient cause for every effect often works against rational evaluation. For every pitcher who fixed the identified flaw in his motion or his approach and then went on to have two or three good years in a row, there are more who did the same "fix" but continued to struggle, because at the end of the day, their stuff just isn't good enough.
Sample size also gets us, and our disinclination to accept the large role played by luck. A pitcher with fringe stuff who has a good year or two early in his career often creates the impression that he has some innate ability to succeed despite, say, a low K rate. That usually proves untrue, but it generally takes a long time to counteract an early impression.
Of course, we also may be deluded by a small negative sample. I don't think Happ really "is" as bad as his numbers look this year, unless he's hurt.
And then, none of this really explains the Jo-Jo Experience. His minor-league stats were decent, but not so good as to justify sticking with a 26-year-old with over 300 MLB innings and a 69 ERA+.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:05 pm
@15, Nash -- I feel your pain. But Pavano was good last year, and it often happens that a team feels irrational confidence in a player who has unexpected success and so gives him a contract that is really a reward for last year and not a realistic look to the future.
And while this Mets fan loves Johan, it can't be ignored that the injury that's kept him out for almost a year now isn't the only time he's missed with the Mets. He threw only 167 IP in 2009. Assuming he doesn't pitch this year (who knows), he will have amassed 10 Wins Above Replacement in 4 years with the Mets, at a salary of $78 million. That's not cost-effective for anyone except perhaps the Yankees. (Also, his K rate with the Mets is 30% less than it was in his 4 full years in Minny's rotation.)
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:07 pm
JA, your last paragraph is spot-on. You've hit on a nugget of truth, in my opinion. GM's do wear statistically-rose-tinted glasses when trying to view their acquistions objectively.
Jo Jo Reyes fits the "fascination with retread veterans on cheap contracts." perfectly, although he is only 26.
He is younger than J.A. Happ but not with as good a body of work. The weird thing about, Reyes, JA, is that he is pitching more effectively this year than at any time in his career. His WHIP of 1.591 is below his career average and his current ERA+ of 75 is his highest.
I just didn't realize how historically bad he was, hence Johnny Twisto's comment @10.
I couldn't agree more with your statement "but somehow a small positive sample seems to linger in the mind more than a larger negative sample."
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:10 pm
@18
Sorry, #18 was in reply to #14.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:17 pm
@15
Nash, I'm going to try and locate that great post you made in old blog about the inconsistencies in financial thinking in Minnesota and link it again here. It was good reading.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:32 pm
Got it.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/12104#comment-122928
For the rest of you, Nash's comment there was in the context of a blog about the Red Sox scoring 14+ runs again and about big-market teams constantly being powerhouses.
The phrase "Lot of slumlords running teams, in baseball." was memorable in the context of owners lying to fans about how much money they have to spend.
Not to embarrass you, Nash, but it was good stream-of-consciousness writing.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:40 pm
The previous 7 players with 8+ RBIs, but only one run. Cruz is the first one to do it without recording an out. Only the second of the past 25 years. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/gSIOE
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:06 pm
@22, Max -- Good dig! Love that Jackie Jensen game -- 9 RBI on 3 hits, and no grand slam.
And I'd pretty much forgotten about Glenn Adams, who batted .338 for the '77 Twins, in 290 PAs as a strict platoon DH/OF. He had just 5 ABs vs. LHPs that year, and no hits.
The '77 Twins had Carew hit .388 and Bostock .336. Only 1 team since then has had 3 hitters at .330 or better in at least 250 ABs. I never would have guessed this team: The 2007 Braves, with Chipper (.337) and Edgar Renteria (.332) both qualifying for the batting title, and Matt Diaz at .338 in 384 PAs.
P.S. I'd just guess that Glenn Adams has one of the highest documented ratios of platoon PAs. In his career, he went up 1,683 times against a RHP, just 77 against a southpaw.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:07 pm
@9
It appears that you got your wish Neil.
Jo-Jo Reyes was just DFA this morning. I assume that somewhere there is a team desperate enough to give him 1 more chance. The Angels just called up (or should I say dredged up) Horacio Ramirez the other day, and I imagine I will still be sharing your pain.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Followup re: the Glenn Adams 8-RBI game that Max linked to @22:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN197706260.shtml
Twins reliever Tom Johnson earned the win with 6.2 IP of fugly relief, allowing 7 runs on 10 hits while finishing out the 19-12 win.
In the searchable era, that's the 2nd-highest runs allowed while finishing a game and getting the win, trailing only the famous Eddie Rommel game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE193207100.shtml
In 1977, the 26-year-old Tom Johnson -- born in St. Paul, MN the same year as Dave Winfield -- went 16-7, 3.13, in 146.2 IP, all in relief. He would win just 1 more game in his career.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsto02.shtml
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:21 pm
@24 -- Horacio Ramirez?!? I guess he dazzled the Angels with his 19 strikeouts in 47 IP at AAA this year.
"I could not tread these perilous paths in safety, if I did not keep a saving sense of humor."
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:24 pm
@24
Thanks, Spartan, I had missed that until your post. Alex Anthopoulos is a smart baseball man in my opinion.
But your consolation is that the Angels are post-season contenders. Maybe a weak link in the rotation like Ramirez is even less tolerable than in a non-contending rotation.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:36 pm
@8.
Dave Nicholson was a true "pioneer" of the free-swinging, go-for-broke hitting approach we're so familiar with now. His 175 Ks in 1963 were the first time any player had racked up even 150 Ks in a season (Don Lock of the Seantors joined Nicholson in this club with 151 Ks that same season). Prior to 1963, there had only been eleven seasons of even 125 Ks.
By 1975, those first two 150 K seasons had expanded to 19, including two each for Dick (er, Richie) Allen, Reggie Jackson and Bobby Bonds (both of Bonds marks were 175+ Ks).
The "swish" revolution had begun.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:53 pm
@25.
"In the searchable era, that's the 2nd-highest runs allowed while finishing a game and getting the win, trailing only the famous Eddie Rommel game"
True as far as relievers go, but there have been 407 games in the game-searchable era where a pitcher has a complete-game win allowing 7 or more runs, albeit none recently, and only 52 of those 407 games since 1950. Last time was Britt Burns in this 1985 game.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL198507130.shtml
The most runs allowed in a CG victory is 11, done three times, most recently by Thornton Lee of the White Sox in 1938.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE193809280.shtml
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Doug, you've caught me mangling the language again. I should have said "in a Game Finished" to make it clear that I meant a relief outing.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:13 pm
There have 193 CG losses where the the pitcher has surrendered 10 or more runs, but only 7 of those since 1950. Most runs allowed in a CG loss - 17 by Hod Lisenbee of the As in 1936.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA193609110.shtml
Last time was 1980 by Mike Norris of the As team that compiled an astonishing 94 complete games under skipper Billy Martin. A great shame that Martin used his staff this way as there were some decent young starters (Norris, Keough, McCatty, Kingman) who burned out way too soon.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK198009260.shtml
Relievers have taken the loss and allowed 10+ runs 5 times, most notably by Walter Johnson in 1920.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WS1/WS1192005200.shtml
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:20 pm
@30, @31.
And I mangled the language, too.
Last reference @31 should be "Relievers finishing a game have taken the loss ...".
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:08 pm
JA and Doug, guess who alomst had a quality start today? And, as of now, he's headed for a loss.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:29 pm
@22
Max, thanks for linking the search results. What Nelson Cruz accomplished was really historic. The kicker, of course, is only one run scored. The table really has to be set for you to drive in 8 runs with only one home run and without being driven in yourself.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:44 pm
@33.
Poor AJ. Too bad he has such an anemic offense to support him. 🙂
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:48 pm
You watch, Cano will drive in the tying run with 2 out in the 9th and get A.J. off the hook.
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Hush my mouth -- Cano bounced out, and A.J. fell below .500 as a Yankee.
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Should I go ahead and post my random A.J. rant?
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:10 pm
@38.
Is it really "random"?
Today is a perfect example of why AJ frustrates people. Not great. Not terrible. Might have got a win many days - especially with the Yanks.
But, expectations have always been so much higher. At 34, though, it isn't going to get any better. WYSIWYG.
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Looking at Burnett's record, he has but one season with more than 13 wins. One!
Take away that one season (18-10 with the Blue Jays in 2008), and he's 100-98 for his career.
Definitely an underachiever relative to expectations. But, is he an underachiever for results relative to ability?
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:33 pm
JA, pull the trigger on the blog. But A.J. was not terrible today. True, he didn't have many clean innings but he pitched decently.
And Girardi didn't give him a chance to work out of it. Look what happend after he left.
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:55 pm
On May 18, 1912 The Athletics scored 24 runs in an 8 inning complete game for Allan Travers as a strike breaker for the Tigers.
On June 29, 1897 Jim "Sheriff" Jones gave up 22 runs in 6.2 innings in a 36-7 loss. Chick Frazer was the starting pitcher giving up 14 runs in 2.1 innings. 36 runs is the highest score in a major league baseball game.
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:55 pm
@39
"But, expectations have always been so much higher."
Doug, that was my point two blogs ago. Expectations cloud objectivity when assessing A.J.
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:02 pm
@41, Neil -- "A chance to work out of it"? He walked the #8 and #9 hitters with 2 out, to load the bases! He'd thrown 100 pitches!
He had his chance when the .190-hitting backup catcher came up. He blew it.
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:04 pm
The rant has been launched: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13079
I think it's about half rational, half random. You tell me.
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:17 pm
BTW, Burnett allowed 11 baserunners today -- 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 HBP -- and a 2-run HR, all in 5.2 IP. Against the 2nd-worst offensive team in the league (.305 OBP, last in HRs).
I think he was lucky to be charged with only 3 runs.
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:20 pm
The National League record in the 1800's was 35 runs by given up by David Rowe in a 9 inning complete game (Chicago over Cleveland, 35-4) on July 24, 1882.
The National Association Record is 49 given up by John McMullin on June 28, 1871 in a 9 inning complete game (49-33 Philadelphia over Troy). The newspaper articles I found said the "dead ball" was used.
July 23rd, 2011 at 10:21 pm
Charles, that's good digging -- but now I want to know who gave up the most runs in a game of rounders! 🙂
July 23rd, 2011 at 10:31 pm
Dang -- Mariners just lost their 14th straight.
I feel bad for the kid pitcher, Blake Beavan. He shut down the Red Sox for 6-2/3 IP, but they started a rally with 2 out and none on, wound up with 3 runs.
Darn those Red Sox!
Beavan gets the 4th straight QS to start his career, but he's 1-2.
14 straight losses ties the franchise record (1992). The last longer streak in the majors was 2005, 19 straight L's by KC.
July 24th, 2011 at 12:29 am
@JA + @28 Doug
JA in your Blog post you reference Dave Nicholson with the Nick Name "Swish"
However the true "official" "Swish Nicholson belongs to Bill Nicholson who played mostly for the Cubs from 1939 thru 1948:
He ended his 16 year career with the Phillies in 1953
The Nickname is noted on his BB-Ref Page:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nichobi01.shtml
Nicholson got the "Swish" nickname during the war years when he would swing and miss so hard you could hear the "Swish".
Nicholson led the National League in Homers and RBI in 1943 and 1944.
He also led the league in runs in 1944.
In 1944 he missed being the NL MVP by 1 vote to Marty Marion
July 24th, 2011 at 12:48 am
@50, Mike Gaber -- Good point ... and welcome back! Bill Nicholson was a heckuva hitter, even if his best seasons came during WWII. He led the NL in HRs & RBI in both 1943 and '44, and would have been a worthy MVP in '44 (though Marion's teammate Musial would have been a better choice). Nicholson led all hitters with 8 RBI in the '45 Series.
It's funny how nicknames often get passed along to the next guy with the same last name. Just ask Dutch Leonard.
July 24th, 2011 at 2:32 am
No one responded to BSK/7 so I will, briefly. I've really liked Beltran for several years. I don't think he's going to make the HOF (via the BBWAA) because their vote seems highly based on perception, and I don't think Beltran is perceived as a HOFer. I don't think most Mets fans think his big contract was a good deal. A lot can change over 15 years of voting, and obviously Beltran's career isn't done, but I think he's got work to do (either in actual performance, or fan support changing voter opinions).
As to whether he does deserve it, I don't think he does yet. I think he's working himself into conversation. I am surprised his WAR is so high already.
***
Re Dave Nicholson, it should be noted that the strike zone was expanded in '63.
July 24th, 2011 at 9:44 am
National Association
On June 18, 1874 Davy Force (Chicago) gave up 24 runs in a 7 inning relief outing. Dan Collins pitched the first 2 and gave up 14 runs in a 38-1 loss to New York.
Rules in 1871:
Home plate was a 12 inch square. The pitcher threw from a box, not a mound, 45 feet from home plate. In 1871, he had to throw underhand, though there was a new rule in 1872 that allowed him to throw sidearmed. The batter was allowed to request high pitches or low pitches. The batter had three strikes, but foul balls did not count as strikes
July 24th, 2011 at 6:58 pm
@52, JT (re: BSK/7 and Beltran=HOF?) -- I generally agree with your take. FWIW, here's a Beltran comment I posted on another site, on the subject of his standing with Mets fans:
http://www.metstoday.com/6725/opinion-and-analysis/appreciating-beltran-before-hes-gone/#comment-32509