Friday notes: in-game edition for July 22
Posted by John Autin on July 22, 2011
[Why wait for the games to be over?]
-- Jacoby Ellsbury hit his 16th HR of the season, his 7th in his last 12 games. He also has 28 stolen bases, putting him on pace for 26 HRs and 46 SB.
- The Red Sox have never had a 30-HR, 30-SB season, nor even a 20-HR, 30-SB season. In a season of 30+ SB, their high in HRs is 17, by Tommy Harper in 1973 (17/54). Johnny Damon holds the next 2 spots, with 14/31 in 2002 and 12/30 in '03.
- There were two 30-HR, 20-SB seasons in Red Sox history: 40/22 by Carl Yastrzemski in 1970, and 30/22 by Nomar Garciaparra in 1997.
- Ellsbury's previous high was 8 HRs.
-- The Cardinals hit for the cycle in the 1st inning: 3B by Jon Jay, HR by Albert Pujols, 2B by Lance Berkman and 1B by Yadier Molina. They also had another HR, a walk, a strikeout, a flyout and a groundout.
- If only the K victim had reached on a wild pitch, they could have added a lineout and thus filled out their Basic Baseball Bingo card.
-- Baltimore rookie Blake Davis broke up Ervin Santana's no-hitter in the 6th with a 1-out double. Santana otherwise pitched perfectly through 7, the only other baserunner coming on an infield error. It was a scoreless duel until the Angels plated a pair in the 7th off Alfredo Simon; Santana gave back a run in the 8th and was lifted.
-- Colby Lewis has a no-no through 5, but he'll probably have to settle for just another Texas shutout. The Rangers are tied for the MLB lead with 13 team shutouts and 5 CG shutouts. Flippancy aside ... if Lewis shuts out Toronto, it will be a feat; the Jays have been blanked just 3 times this year, less than any other AL team, and those were thrown by Justin Verlander, James Shields and Tim Hudson (with a little help).
-- In his first trip through Detroit's lineup, Brian Duensing had 5 strikeouts and 2 HRs, the latter tying his career high. His high in Ks is 8.
-- The Yankees erupted for 14 runs in the 2nd-3rd innings against Oakland, capped by Mark Teixeira's grand slam for a 14-2 lead.
- Just like old times for Phil Hughes: The Yanks have now scored at least 6 runs in 5 of his 6 starts this year, after averaging 6.75 R/G for him last year. But they couldn't quite nurse him through 5 IP for the win....
- The following is just an observation, not a knock on Teixeira: 16 of his 26 HRs this year have come in low-leverage situations. Before this game, he had a .912 OPS in low-leverage, .766 in medium-leverage (.208 BA), and .728 in high-leverage situations. In late-and-close situations, he's hitting .224 with 1 HR in 49 ABs. Last year, Teix in late-and-close hit .186 with 2 HRs in 86 ABs, although he otherwise hit well in high-leverage (.970 OPS). Anyway, I've been looking at Teixeira's WPA numbers over the last 2 years, and they're not pretty; details in a future post.
-- Jhonny Peralta hit his 16th HR, putting him on pace for 26. The Detroit record for HRs by a SS is 28, by Alan Trammell in his '87 MVP year. (Yeah, I know....) Anyway, no other Tiger SS has ever hit 25 HRs in a season.
-- The Braves hit back-to-back HRs in the 4th (Jason Heyward & Brian McCann), and the Reds copied the feat in the 6th to take the lead (Fred Lewis, Drew Stubbs). Martin Prado tied it up with a solo shot in the 7th, giving each team 3 HRs.
- Bronson Arroyo didn't get the memo. He's allowed 29 HRs in 121.1 IP, a rate of 2.15 HR/9. Only one qualifying pitcher has ever had a higher HR rate: the late, lamented Jose Lima -- 2.20 HR/9 in 2000 (48 HRs in 196.1 IP).
- Jair Jurrjens has allowed 3 HRs so far tonight, matching his career high. He had allowed just 5 HRs in 17 previous starts.
-- Cole Hamels whiffed 7 of the first 9 batters, but settled for 10 Ks in a dominant 8 innings, allowing 1 run on 3 hits and a walk. His 81 Game Score was a season high.
- Surprisingly, the only Phillies pitcher with a shutout this year is Cliff Lee, who has 4.
- The Phils at home are 35-15, .700.
July 22nd, 2011 at 9:50 pm
Wow, not a quality start for Jurrgens tonight. And all the runs on home runs.
July 22nd, 2011 at 9:59 pm
Uggla with the 7th homer of the game! He's alive!
July 22nd, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Nelson Cruz has 8 RBI through 6 innings, 1 shy of the franchise record.
July 22nd, 2011 at 10:24 pm
The White Sox have never had a 30 - 30 guy either
Guys that came somewhat close (just from memory): Durham, Magglio, Agee, Rios...
July 22nd, 2011 at 10:24 pm
"Jacoby Ellsbury hit his 16th HR of the season, his 7th in his last 12 games."
So is the Ellsbury vs. Brett Gardner debate officially over now in favor of Ellsbury?
@2
Max, Uggla has a faint pulse ....... not back to full health yet. 🙂
July 22nd, 2011 at 10:34 pm
@5, Neil -- Way too soon to close the polls. Gardner has been hot, too; OBP up to .370, leads the AL with 30 SB (hasn't been caught in his last 16), and his defense is off the charts -- he led the AL last year with 1.9 dWAR, already has 2.0 dWAR this year.
Ellsbury might end up with the better season, and I'm not arguing that Gardner is a better player. But the case isn't closed yet.
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:05 pm
6 strong innings, a win, and a hit for Carlos Zambrano!
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:18 pm
Well, sure, Timmy -- but where's the power? They're not paying the Big Z $18 mil for bunt singles! 🙂
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:21 pm
Ellsbury is by far the better player. No contest. If you want to debate a Red Sox vs Yankee player.... try Pedroia vs Cano. That's a fair and even contest.
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:21 pm
@4 Carlos Lee for the Sox hit for power and once stole a few bases.
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:23 pm
Did you see that bunt single by Z? I told you he can lay the ball down and has good speed not to be confused with quickness, which he has also!
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:24 pm
Aramis Ramirez: 13 HRs, 27 RBI in his last 25 games.
Cubs: 9-16 during his hot streak; 5-7 in the games he homered in.
Ah, those Cubbies....
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:28 pm
@9, Paul -- I guess your idea of "who's the better player?" is "who's having the better batting season?"
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:32 pm
If Big Z wants any more ink in this thread, he needs to go deep, like Washington SP John Lannan did tonight, a 2-run shot.
Lannan entered the game 18 for 195 (.092) with no HRs.
July 22nd, 2011 at 11:40 pm
@13
maybe you haven't heard, all that matters is dingerz and playing for the sawx!
July 23rd, 2011 at 12:10 am
Funny that the Pedroia/Cano debate has been brought up. I was thinking to myself today that Pedroia is probably the best position player in the AL not named Bautista. While I expect Adrian Gonzalez will win the AL MVP this year, it should be other guy on that side of the Boston infield robbing poor Jose.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:34 am
@16, Zachary -- Interesting point about the AL MVP race. I suppose Gonzalez would win if the vote happened today -- leading in BA and RBI for the team with the best record -- but there's still a long way to go.
Bautista is only 13 points back of Gonzalez in the batting race; if he were to take that crown, and keep up his monster HR rate, he might win the award despite playing for a middling team.
Also interesting that numbers 2 through 5 in WAR for AL position players are all Red Sox -- Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ellsbury are all very close, with Youkilis tied for 5th, about 1 WAR back. That could lead to some vote-splitting.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:46 am
"Bronson Arroyo didn't get the memo. He's allowed 29 HRs in 121.1 IP, a rate of 2.15 HR/9. Only one qualifying pitcher has ever had a higher HR rate: the late, lamented Jose Lima -- 2.20 HR/9 in 2000 (48 HRs in 196.1 IP)."
Only two other qualifying pitchers have a HR/9 of more than 2, and both came in the strike-shortened '94 season - so a bit of an asterisk there. For the record, they were Sid Fernandez of the Orioles at 2.11 and Jim DeShaies of the Twins at 2.07.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:23 am
Cubs manager Mike Qball has been telling his team to play with more intensity. Well, what player is the most intense in baseball? Carlos Z is correct. He has been challenging his teammates to step it up. I know player-managers are rare nowdays, but has there ever been a pitcher that was player-manager? I'll hang up and listen.
July 23rd, 2011 at 10:59 am
@19, Timmy P -- While the notion of Big Z at the helm is a rich one to ponder, my powers of parodic fiction could not do it justice. Let's hope that our friend the Duke wanders by with pen in hand.
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:44 am
I don't think you'll see him round these parts any time soon. After all, he is a convicted felon. I've asked him to mail me his his messages from upstate, and shall share them as received.
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:56 am
Didn't we agree that Duke was a convicted felon?
I thought he was pardoned by Prince Fielder, King Felix and Mel Queen.
July 23rd, 2011 at 12:59 pm
sorry to give Z more ink, but, on a more serious note, I've been saying (to my Cub fan friends) that I don't think that it would be a bad idea, if MN picked Zambrano up.....it can't be any worse than what they have now.
And, it really does seem, as though they need someone slightly (rolls eyes) off-center, in the clubhouse. Generally these people aren't good teammates, but it could be a good fit, in this case......
If I understand the term correctly, I'd call it the perfect example, of 'taking a flyer' on somebody. What's to lose??
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:03 pm
@16, 17: if we are going to do the mid-season MVP poll, allow me to cast my vote for (seriously) Justin Verlander. Where would DET be without him?
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:21 pm
@24, Nash -- Nothing wrong with an MVP vote for Verlander!
But I was thinking more about how the actual vote might go. Since the Cy Young Award was instituted, only 6 SPs have won the MVP, and none since Clemens in '86. It usually takes a fantastic W-L record on a playoff team for a SP to even register high in the voting.
Regardless of his actual merit and the fact that the Tigers might win the Central, I don't think Verlander would get many MVP votes without leading the league in either wins or ERA.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Skimpy Tee,
I don't know for certain that a man (not that I'm placing an immortal such as Z into that tiny, limiting box) - but us regular American men, cannot effectively manage from the mound. I think positioning fielders, calling for the shift, a pitch out, the wheel play, falling asleep in the dugout, playing the infield back, (conceding the run for the double play) etc. are all things that may distract from a pitcher's concentration, not that Z needs any help in distractions. But on the flip-side, during his 4 off days, a fired up, red faced, frothing, cussing, gatorade destroying, media threatening, dugout pugilistic Z, might have the perfect balance (a balance you have repeatedly, without provocation, pointed out relentlessly), a balance of contagious intensity (and gonorrhea), with the sensitivity and communication skills, needed to helm the Cubs.
On a serious note, I believe Pete Rose was the last player manager, am I correct there? Then Joe Torre before him, no?. Does any one believe it could be done again? Does anyone remember who was player/manager before Torre, or when the practice fell out of favor?
What is fun, is to consider how those two had/have such distinct personalities, complete as being the last of what could be a relic of baseball.
I don't know how it couldn't be viewed as a gimmick, or how todays players (with their immense egos) could handle taking orders from todays a peer, or contemporary. Joe and Pete had an impressive resume. Both were MVPs, played multiple positions and I think were old enough to be handling guys they never played with, although I think Pete may have had a few hold overs. Though I do see aspects of both being a bit of a sideshow. Torre was handling the floundering Mets and Pete was chasing the record and placing bets.
If it were to be done today, any candidates?
Immediately, I think of Jason Varitek.
Jeter, whom is also in the twilight of his career, seems to have his teams respect, but he is rarely vocal enough, IMHO, to helm a team. Plus he has a team full of me first Divas.
Wait a minute... of course, Juan D'Vaughn Pierre. What was i thinking.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:14 pm
In all seriousness.
I love the sport as much as the rest of us. But, with especially managing, I don't see enough innovation.
Today's managers make robotic decisions, nothing based on intuition or logic, just time worn tradition.
What comes immediately to mind is how many times Bill Russel was intentionally walked to get to the pitcher. 20+ times multiple seasons. He was a below average hitter, why not pitch to him? Have faith in your starter, and force the other manager's hand. Getting Russel out, seemed no big feat from his paltry OBP, then take away his IBB and he might have an OBP near .300 or below.
Then there was one of my favorite moves in baseball history, and that was Davey Johnson keeping two pitchers in a game (McDowell and Orosco) alternating between pitching duties and left field.
Then when Torre pulled his infield in during game 7 of the 01 WS. How many times does Mo jam a guy and sends out a bloop to very shallow left. Playing that defense back would of given the Yankees the title, but baseball managing rules call for the infield in, despite hard evidence that averages go way up.
I'd love to see a maverick manager out there, and not just a loud mouth Guillen.
Maybe Davey Johnson, with nothing to loose, on an expansion team, might let it all hang out.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:45 pm
The Duke does not disappoint!
BTW, I do believe that Cy Young managed the Boston Americans (Red Sox) for the first 6 games of 1907, going 3-3, while he was still an active pitcher (going 21-15, 1.99 that year). Boston ran through 3 more managers that year, all with losing records.
Random P.S. -- I never noticed before how many different managers the Red Sox had during their best 10-year period, 1909-18:
-- In 1909, finished a strong 3rd at 88-63 behind Fred Lake.
-- Lake was replaced by Patsy Donovan for 1910-11, both 4th-place finishes but over .500.
-- Donovan was replaced in 1912 by Jake Stahl, who also started at 1B (124 OPS+) and led them to the championship.
-- Stahl didn't last through the honeymoon, fired in a big clubhouse drama in 1913 and replaced by catcher Bill "Rough" Carrigan, who is just all over the place in dead-ball-era history. (E.g., he caught 3 no-hitters.)
-- Carrigan lasted 3-1/2 years, winning championships in his last 2 years (1915-16). He retired and started a chain of movie theaters in Lewiston, ME, which made him wealthy.
-- SS Jack Barry took over in 1917; besides fading at the plate, the former A's star brought the team home a distant 2nd, and was replaced by....
-- Ed Barrow, who had never played in the majors and hadn't managed since a short tenure with Detroit 14 years before, led the BoSox to their 5th WS title in the war-shortened 1918 season. (The Sox struggled in '19, and we all know what happened after that.)
That's 5 managers in 10 years, 3 of whom won the World Series.
And they said Steinbrenner was an original!
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:50 pm
I think Yogi Berra was a p/m for a while, with the Mets maybe? I've never heard of a pitcher being a p/m. Watch for Zambrano to rattle off about 7 wins in a row and end up winning 18 or so for the year. His pitches are working, however little else is working for the Cubs this year. Zambrano is a warrior! You're right about Z being a regular American now, he gained citizenship to this great country a couple of years ago. I might even say he's more than a regular American, he is close to being a great American. What a great country this is where folks from an oppressed humid country, prone to coups, and filled with squalor, can through his god-given talent become wealthy here and then choose to be one of us.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:56 pm
The Twins have some big problems on the horizon, look for them to settle in to sub .500 baseball for the next 7 or 8 years.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:10 pm
The more I see of Jose Reyes the more impressed I am. Not just his great skills, but his attitude. I saw some interviews he gave recently and he is a thoughtful young man, with a great approach to the game. I predict the Met's do not keep him however and the only mega-bucks, Carl Crawford type offer comes from the Yankees, or maybe the Angels.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:55 pm
John,
Ellsbury is a better hitter, no contest. Defensively Gardner and Ellsbury are a push. There is simply no contest when it comes to hitting. Pedroia and Cano, OTOH are about as evenly matched offensively and defensively. Slight edge to Cano for power, edge to Pedroia for getting on base.
Paul
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:45 pm
@32, Paul -- It's customary to provide a basis for a comparative statement. For example:
Here is a 2009-11 comparison for Ellsbury and Gardner, per 700 PAs (Ellsbury listed first):
-- OPS+: 105 ... 103
-- Runs+RBI: 167 ... 167
-- Times On Base: 244 ... 254
-- Batting Outs:* 461 ... 443
-- BA: .297 ... .278
-- OBP: .352 ... .369
-- SLG: .430 ... .390
-- Runs: 99 ... 115
-- RBI: 68 ... 52
-- SB/CS: 62/14 ... 59/14
-- Hits: 188 ... 166
-- Walks: 49 ... 82
-- HBP: 7 ... 6
-- GIDP: 11 ... 8
* Batting Outs = AB minus Hits, plus GIDP, plus SF
Offensively, they have been utterly comparable since 2009. Ellsbury has a 2-point edge in OPS+, and a slim edge in offensive Wins Above Replacement (6.7 oWAR to 6.4 oWAR).
Defensively, Gardner wins by whatever measure you choose. Gardner has amassed 3.8 defensive WAR since 2009, while Jacoby's account is in the red. Even if we extend the defensive comparison back to 2008, Ellsbury's best dWAR season (and acknowledging that dWAR stats tend to fluctuate a bit), that only brings him up to 2.0 dWAR for 2008-11, while Gardner has 4.5 dWAR in that period.
If you prefer more traditional defensive stats -- say, their Range Factor per 9 innings, relative to the league average, for their games in CF -- Gardner wins that comparison, too, though the margin is closer. And while I wouldn't say that Gardner has a great arm (and I don't know about Ellsbury), Gardner has way more assists.
That's my rationale for saying that Gardner is at least as valuable as Ellsbury, at the present time. Now, if Ellsbury continues to increase his HR production, I'd have to re-evaluate -- but I'm not going to look at 16 HRs so far this year, by a guy who hit 9 and 8 in his 2 full seasons, and say that it for sure represents who he is going forward. Wade Boggs hit 24 HRs one year and a lot of folks thought he was going to be a power hitter, but t took him 5 more seasons to hit his next 24 HRs.
What's your rationale for saying that Ellsbury is more valuable than Gardner? It would be nice to hear more than "he's a better hitter."
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:17 pm
John,
As far as former players becoming managers, there seems to be a surplus of catchers, especially the mediocre variety.
It makes perfect sense... the guys calling games, involved in every play.
Girardi, Torre, Brenley, and Socia, all WS winners.
Any opinion if the player/manager can survive today... and who would be the likest suspects?
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:33 pm
@34, Duke -- I can't see it working with an everyday player or a pitcher. Maybe, maybe, a pinch-hitter, the way Frank Robinson was in his last 2 years.
It just seems like there's so much administrative duty to the job nowadays. Teams have many more coaches than they did 30+ years ago; managers have to have group and individual meetings with all those guys. They make far more pitching changes nowadays. There are myriad other little things they have to oversee and deal with -- rehab assignments, personal days off. The players need more emotional maintenance. (I'm not knocking them for that, it's just a way our culture has changed.)
And of course, dealing with the media is a bigger, more structured part of the job than it was when baseball writers rode the trains with the teams.
I don't think we'll see another player-manager any time soon.
There is a guy, whose name escapes me -- utility infielder with the Mets and Nats in recent years, had a brother who also played MLB ... Alex Cora. I've heard him called a manager in training. Maybe someone like that could do the job -- someone with no ego, no playing time to worry about. But I still doubt it.
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:20 pm
Looks like John Hannan read my comment on lower win percentages in Quality Starts, and decided to give himself the required run support. Now I have to casually mention the Mets' record when David Wright homers and doesn't have a throwing error...
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:24 pm
@35 Maybe Jason Kendall, although his playing days may be over.
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:24 pm
Oops, @34, I mean.
July 24th, 2011 at 2:43 am
Jeter, whom is also in the twilight of his career, seems to have his teams respect, but he is rarely vocal enough, IMHO, to helm a team. Plus he has a team full of me first Divas.
Jeter will never manage. I don't think he'll have any serious job with a team once he retires.
***
I might even say he's more than a regular American, he is close to being a great American.
Can you delineate the differences?
The more I see of Jose Reyes the more impressed I am. Not just his great skills, but his attitude.
I agree. From what I see, he plays his ass off. Seems like he sometimes gets a bad rap for mental errors or some such. I certainly don't see tons of Mets games, but I love the guy.
If only he didn't have so many braids!
***
It just seems like there's so much administrative duty to the job nowadays.
I dunno....100 years ago managers were the de facto GMs, and yet there were a lot of player-managers then. I don't disagree that it seems too much for a player to also manage, however.
July 24th, 2011 at 7:15 pm
@39 re: Jose Reyes -- I think everyone knows that I love Jose, but if you watch enough games, you will see plenty of mental errors.
On a recent SNY postgame, Bobby Ojeda (whom I had the pleasure of meeting, briefly, on a backstage tour of the studio) rightly ripped Jose for giving a "lazy target" at 2B when taking a throw from inexperienced 1B Lucas Duda in a crucial situation. With Duda fielding the ball directly on a line between the runner going from 1B to 2B and the 2B bag, Ojeda explained, Reyes should have planted his right foot on the bag and extended his glove towards RF, to present a target that was not in line with the runner. Instead, he just stood right at the base and waited for the throw, which ended up hitting the runner for a very costly error.
Jose's baseball instincts (or "fundies," as Keith Hernandez likes to say) are not as bad as those of Angel Pagan, but they're not what you'd like in a SS. He's not the "total package"; but then, few players are.
July 24th, 2011 at 11:52 pm
That's the interesting stuff which old players are good for in the broadcast booth. (Unfortunately, few of them are the total package either.)
July 25th, 2011 at 11:37 am
@14
Lannan's HR is, I believe, the 2nd one ever hit by an alum of my high school. The first...Kevin Pasley on 10/1/78 off Ferguson Jenkins (!) in his second-to-last AB.