Some overrated players in 2011
Posted by Andy on June 14, 2011
Here are a few quick lists of some players who might be overrated so far in 2011.
First, a few pitchers who have ERA+ values over 100 but have also allowed a ton of inherited baserunners to score:
| Rk | IS% | IR ▾ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doug Slaten | 177 | 50.00% | 30 |
| 2 | Brad Ziegler | 208 | 50.00% | 24 |
| 3 | Taylor Buchholz | 120 | 50.00% | 14 |
| 4 | Adam Russell | 162 | 62.00% | 13 |
| 5 | Wilton Lopez | 146 | 64.00% | 11 |
Ouchie...Slaten and Ziegler have each allowed double-digit runners to score.
Here are guys currently leading in BAbip (batting average on balls put in play):
| Rk | Player | PA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Hafner | .415 | 127 | .345 | .409 | .549 |
| 2 | Joey Votto | .396 | 298 | .335 | .463 | .519 |
| 3 | Allen Craig | .395 | 122 | .336 | .405 | .523 |
| 4 | Matt Holliday | .395 | 180 | .342 | .433 | .542 |
Nobody has had a BAbip as high as .415 in a long time so there's a good chance that Travis Hafner is in for a bit of a decline as the season goes on.
And of course, here are some pitchers with some nice W-L records but below-average ERAs:
| Player | W | L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 83 | 6 | 1 |
| Max Scherzer | 89 | 8 | 2 |
| Jake Arrieta | 91 | 8 | 3 |
| Josh Tomlin | 92 | 7 | 4 |
| Kyle McClellan | 93 | 6 | 2 |
| Aaron Harang | 93 | 7 | 2 |
| Mike Leake | 95 | 6 | 2 |
June 15th, 2011 at 12:27 pm
@99 What evidence? My father is no longer alive, but I'm sure I'm his son. I have no evidence other than his word. What does Morris say? Did any whiz with a computer try to send him an email question as to if he thinks he was able to pitch to the score? I would be interested to hear from the man himself and I might just give him a ring! I really think it's a disgrace what some of you guys are trying to do.
June 15th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
I disagree with you about Jack Morris, and that's probably all that can be said about that. However, it takes a strange sort of mentality to post to the blog of a baseball statistics website calling the other people "stat nerds." If you think statistical analysis is BS, that's fine - there are plenty of places to get player profiles, interviews, and other types of analysis around the internet, if that's what strikes your fancy.
I visit B-R dozens of times a day, and thoroughly enjoy statistical analysis of baseball. I think it's fun. If that makes me a stat nerd, I'll wear that hat proudly.
June 15th, 2011 at 3:40 pm
I will be the first to admit I make plenty of snide and sarcastic comments in here, so I'm not above a little rip in my direction. From my point of view, I dis comments which are either from "hit-and-run" posters, or which are so over the top they need to be taken down a peg (e.g. Sam Crawford's Trail of Tears). With Timmy yesterday, I felt we were discussing a serious issue, one which certainly has proponents on both sides, so I felt an exchange of information and ideas shouldn't be sidetracked by belittling comments. But I shouldn't assume that others will always draw the line at the same point I do. Anyway, it's not that I am hurt by the words, but if I am trying to focus on outlining objective proof, which will probably be based on stats, and he calls the stats "geeky," I feel like I've wasted my time.
So, in this case Timmy is satisfied with intuition and anecdotes, and will not be convinced by any numbers. That's fine, but there's no need for us to continue the conversation on this topic.
June 17th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
@99 Joe Sheehan is an azz kizzing idiot, I did some research on him and he's a fool looking for a job.