How much longer will Jorge Posada play?
Posted by Andy on May 14, 2011
I don't know the answer to the title question. I have a hard time imagining the Yankees continuing to play Posada if he continues to hit so poorly, and I also wonder about the possibility of him retiring on his own.
But check out how historically poor his start has been.
Here are the guys (age 38 and older) since the 2002 season who had the most 0-fer games with at least 3 plate appearances in their team's first 34 games of the season:
| Rk | Player | Year | #Matching | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Posada | 2011 | 19 | Ind. Games |
| 2 | Brian Giles | 2009 | 16 | Ind. Games |
| 3 | Gary Sheffield | 2007 | 15 | Ind. Games |
| 4 | Raul Ibanez | 2011 | 15 | Ind. Games |
| 5 | Jason Giambi | 2009 | 15 | Ind. Games |
| 6 | Fred McGriff | 2002 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 7 | Steve Finley | 2005 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 8 | Vinny Castilla | 2006 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 9 | Frank Thomas | 2007 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 10 | Gary Sheffield | 2008 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 11 | Barry Bonds | 2004 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 12 | Jim Thome | 2009 | 12 | Ind. Games |
| 13 | Frank Thomas | 2008 | 12 | Ind. Games |
| 14 | Sammy Sosa | 2007 | 12 | Ind. Games |
| 15 | Tom Lampkin | 2002 | 12 | Ind. Games |
| 16 | Jeff Kent | 2006 | 12 | Ind. Games |
| 17 | Ken Griffey | 2008 | 12 | Ind. Games |
| 18 | Luis Gonzalez | 2007 | 12 | Ind. Games |
| 19 | Brady Anderson | 2002 | 12 | Ind. Games |
Posada is way out in the lead here. And the seasons appearing on this list were the last in the big leagues for Giles, Castilla, Sosa, Lampkin, and Anderson.
Here are the leaders for previous 10-year periods:
1992-2001:
| Rk | Player | Year | #Matching | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Brett | 1992 | 13 | Ind. Games |
1982-1991:
| Rk | Player | Year | #Matching | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Schmidt | 1988 | 18 | Ind. Games |
1972-1981:
| Rk | Player | Year | #Matching | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hank Aaron | 1975 | 19 | Ind. Games |
1962-1971:
| Rk | Player | Year | #Matching |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernie Banks | 1970 | 14 |
Amazing, huh? Posada has been afforded an opportunity usually reserved for the all-time greats. I mean...think about that list of guys. Banks, Aaron, Schmidt, Brett, and...Posada? Don't get me wrong, I think Posada has had a fabulous career. I also think he's been allowed to play for too long and that it might well be time to hang 'em up.
May 14th, 2011 at 8:51 am
The funny thing about Sheffield's 2007 start ist that he got very hot after.
From April 23 to July 15 Sheffield went:
.354/.446/.654, 72 runs, 21 homeruns, 57 rbi, 15 steals and had 43 walks/19 strikeouts 69 games.
It wasn't until July 21 when Leyland played him in Rightfield (for Negro League day) that Sheffield got hurt when he collided with Polanco and pretty much soured the rest of '07 and all of '08 trying to recover from.
Is is possible Posada recovers and got on a 70 game tear Like Sheffield? Maybe, but I doubt it.
May 14th, 2011 at 8:54 am
One more thing. That 70 game tear for Sheffield helped him have a 20/20 season (25 homeruns/22 steals) in his age 38 season which in turned helped him eventually become just the 4th player in history to attain 500 homeruns/250 steals. Mays, ARod, and Bonds being the other three.
May 14th, 2011 at 8:56 am
Still, he was quite good last year, and he's only 2 or 3 good games from having solid numbers.
A .165 BA can become a .240 ba pretty fast, and with walk and power, .240 with some walks and some power and experience would be terrific for a backup catcher. He shouldn't be DH'ing everyday though.
HIS OPS+ is still higher than Juan Pierre's, and he hasn't been thrown out stealing 8 times and he doesn't bat leadoff every game.
May 14th, 2011 at 8:57 am
LOL it always comes back to Juan Pierre.
May 14th, 2011 at 9:06 am
Also, I'm sure many had written off Todd Helton last year. Has he recharged himself somehow? He looked done last year but he's hitting again this year.
May 14th, 2011 at 9:13 am
If, in his next 30 PAs, Posada gets 9 hits and 4 walks, nothing extraordinary at all.......lets say it's 2 homer runs, 1 double, and 6 singles....
His obp would be .303
His SLG would be .392
So I guess he's got a ways to go. I would've thought a small streak like that would be enough for him to be decent, but really, those numbers are nowhere near anything you want from a starting player that's old and slow and not catching.
May 14th, 2011 at 11:21 am
How long Posada plays is tied to how hot Montero is in AAA.
If Montero is on fire and Posada still ice cold, the Yanks will bring up the kid to see what he can do.
May 14th, 2011 at 12:44 pm
Posada's struggles go back to the middle of last year. So the sample size of his poor play is much larger than just the start of this season. Time to hang 'em up, especially if the only "position" he can play is a Designated Hitter. Those guys should be able to, ya know, hit.
May 14th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
So #5 mentioned Todd Helton and naturally I had to go glance at his player page. As I looked over his numbers, I wondered if they were HOF worthy. At first glance, I wasn't sure what to think. When I looked at his HOF monitor and HOF standards, they were much higher than I had anticipated. Is Helton a shoo-in? He doesn't seem it to me. What do you guys think?
May 14th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
I think as it is right now, Helton won't be a hall of famer.
Now, if you take his current 2011 stats, and if he continues to play like this through 2013, then he'd have 2600+ hits, 600+ doubles, a great OBP, good defense, and good character and no known connection to steroids. He'd have a pretty good chance.
Coors field works against him. Being a first baseman works against him. Having a short power surge in his career, and then being a Mark Grace type hitter the rest of his career works against him. In fact, in a lot of ways he looks like Mark Grace, except that he had huge numbers for a few years when his park was a huge effect. I'm actually very surprised that Grace/Helton don't connect at all in the top 10 similarities lists. Grace also was a great post-season performer for won a WS, Helton has weak post-season stats and hasn't won a WS.
So I don't expect him to get there, but there's still room in his career for him to accumulate the numbers and appreciation that would make is possible.
May 14th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
The Yankees have had holes at catcher and righthanded power since Spring Training. If Jesus Montero was in their future plans he would have been on the opening day roster.
He's playing, and catching, every day at the AAA level so teams can judge whether or not he's a worthwhile investment.
All that needs to happen is he doesn't get hurt, which he did, yesterday, for the second time this season.
Irregardless, Montero's days in the Yankee organization are fewer than are Posada's.
As far as Posada in the lineup goes, good teams can afford to carry a crutch for a player as long as everyone else is picking up the slack, which has happened so far.
Even Brett Gardner's been hot of late.
Look at Boston, up until a week ago, Posada was out-hitting Carl Crawford.
If Posada was still the full-time catcher it would be a different story, because he would be killing the Yanks offensively AND defensively, but, as the DH, no big deal.
May 14th, 2011 at 3:39 pm
@9, Scoop -- re: Helton's numbers on HOF Monitor & HOF Standards --
Those methods award points based on reaching certain levels of raw stats. No park adjustment is applied.
May 14th, 2011 at 5:01 pm
...and tonight, 5/14, Posada is hitting 9th.
May 14th, 2011 at 6:00 pm
Andy, the ending could be coming for Posada soon. He was dropped to 9th in today's batting order, and the next drop will be to the bench if he doesn't pick it up.
It's true, as you noted, that Posada has been afforded an opportunity usually reserved for all-time greats, but he is a borderline HOFer himself who does deserve the benefit of the doubt. The doubt factor, though, mounts with every game. I'm pretty sure the Yankees aren't looking at is as "hey, Jorge's had as many 0-fer games as Aaron and Schmidt, and he's not in their category, so we're bat-shit crazy." He has been productive every year he's played, including last season where his stats would have ranked him as the third-most-productive DH in the league.
As @8 BSK noted, his second-half performance was weaker, perhaps signaling his decline, although I don't think that was clearly the case. I had Posada on my fantasy team last year, so I was quite aware, painfully at times, of his ups and downs, and they were almost all timed around a series of odd, nagging injuries that weren't quite serious enough to put him on the DL, but would take him out of games for stretches, and would impact his hitting because they usually involved his hands and feet. Just as he'd get going again, he'd get hit with another. It may be that age was making him more prone to these bumps and bruises, or he may have just had one of those years. Regardless, his down second half was mostly driven by a horrible September when he suffered several nagging injuries, including once again to his hand that clearly impacted his hitting, where he was noticeably wincing in pain, and then a concussion, limiting his production and play. In August prior to that, he hit .259/.368/.481.
The Yankees probably figured if they remove the chance for an injury and let him just hit, he'd be productive, perhaps even more so than recently once free from catching. It seemed like a reasonable assumption and certainly worth the try. Problem is he has been historically bad over the first six weeks. Yet Fred McGriff, on the list above, went on to hit 30 HRs that year. Barry Bonds posted an OPS+ of 263; Thomas, 26 HRs and a 125 OPS+; Jeff Kent posted a 119 OPS+ and played another couple of seasons; while lesser beings like Luis Gonzalez posted a 104 OPS+, and Jason Giambi is still playing. If the teams gave up on all those guys, they'd have produced.
The point is that before a consistent producer like Posada is taken out back and shot, it's probably a good idea for the team to be sure he truly is done, because once the team decides he's done, the player becomes a sunk cost, with little chance to prove himself again coming off the bench. Posada deserves that opportunity, and the Yankees deserve that look for the $13 million they're paying him this last year.
Today's dropping to 9th is a clear sign of their thinking today. Montero is hitting about .350 in AAA and I believe I just read he hit a 480 ft. HR to the opposite field the other day. I think the Yankees have handled this right, but Posada may only have a matter of weeks before his fine career comes effectively to an end. It happens to them all. Montero waits.
May 14th, 2011 at 6:29 pm
@11: Montero wasn't hurt last night. He was ejected for arguing balls and strikes.
May 14th, 2011 at 6:30 pm
Jorge has hit .243 in May after hitting .125 in April, albeit without the power he showed in April, so he may still have a little left. His HR and walk rates are fine, and he isn't striking out much more than usual. Since his contract is up after this year and the Yankees don't really have any better options at the moment, I'd give him a chance to keep playing and see if he can snap out of it.
For those who don't follow the Yankees regularly, I should clarify that Jorge is a full-time DH this year and doesn't catch at all, so whether or not they bring up Montero it won't affect him. Francisco Cervelli, the back up, will most likely be the one sent down.
May 14th, 2011 at 8:41 pm
Frank Thomas twice, in consecutive seasons, for the same team. Shame on you, J.P. Ricciardi!
May 14th, 2011 at 8:55 pm
Random thoughts on the Todd Helton HOF tangent:
Just looking at his park-adjusted numbers such as OPS+ and WAR, I would say that Helton is currently on the borderline, and if he continued to be productive this season, he would probably deserve induction.
But I wonder if the standard park adjustments really do justice to Helton's career. I have never seen a bigger disparity in any player's career home/away splits:
-- BA, .355/.292
-- SLG, .626/.481
-- OPS, 1.078/.873
Helton is the first star hitter to spend his entire career in Colorado (so far). He has 12 qualifying seasons; no other player had more than 7 with the Rockies (Larry Walker & Dante Bichette).
Walker was similar to Helton in career length (a little shorter), rate stats (a little better), and home/away splits (virtually the same OPS numbers). This year was his first on the HOF ballot, and he received just 20% of the vote.
Barring a return to star level, I think Helton will also be hurt in the HOF vote by a couple other factors, not all of which I necessarily endorse:
-- the big gap between his peak seasons and the rest of his career;
-- just five seasons of 100+ RBI; and
-- the sense that his enormous contract has been an albatross on the team almost from the time he signed it. Helton's big money kicked in for the 2006 season, and this is the 6th year that he will make at least $16 million. He hasn't had even one season that would justify that salary, and I think an aura of being overpaid has attached to the general perception of him.
Ultimately, I don't think he'll make it.
May 14th, 2011 at 9:06 pm
I see Posada removed himself from the lineup before tonight's game and has asked to speak to the media after the game....retirement perhaps?
May 14th, 2011 at 9:38 pm
@14
Bonds doesn't really belong in a comparison with Posada. Bonds was the MVP that year, and drew a record 232 walks! His appearance on this list has nothing to do with an inability to hit (unlike all the other members of the list), he's on this list for the opposite reason. He was so good nobody threw him any strikes, and thus he had lots of 0-1 and 0-2 lines, often with 2 or 3 walks, and he pinch hit fairly often when he was taking days off.
May 14th, 2011 at 9:41 pm
@20
Bonds has GOT to be the only guy on here who won the batting title in the year in question, right?
May 14th, 2011 at 9:48 pm
@18
The litmus test for Helton is, I think, the simple doubling of the road numbers. When one does so, one gets a good-not-great (pretty great for career numbers in so many seasons, not so great considering he was a career 1B) slash line: .292/.392/.481, with 262 HR and less than 1000 RBI (996). Even if we give him a 3-5% boost on half of those (to make up for the fact that players generally hit better at home), his numbers aren't great, and probably not worthy for a 1B. But, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go in, since 1) he's widely considered to be the greatest player in the history of his franchise (not that there's a whole lot of competition), and 2) he's always been considered a "good guy," and wasn't implicated in PEDs, from what I've heard. If the Hall voters keep being stingy about PED-guys, somewhere along the line, they may get to Helton and say, "why not?" Let's just put it this way: I wouldn't be shocked either way when it comes to Todd Helton.
May 14th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Andy -- I pretty much agree with your current assessment, but "allowed to play too long" seems a bit harsh, or at least unrealistic.
Others have noted that Posada's "slump" extends back to last year. Yes, but it doesn't extend far back into last year. Through Sept. 3, Jorge's line was .265/.371/.489, for an .860 OPS. Had he finished with that number, he would have ranked 4th in OPS out of 28 catchers with at least 300 PAs. But it seems Posada may have injured something around that time; he missed their next game and started just 15 of the last 27, going just 9-58 with 1 HR, which dropped his final line to .248 BA with an .811 OPS.
We can hardly expect the Yankees to conclude from 15 games that Posada's goose was cooked, especially since he was already under contract for this year. And even if they really believed he was through, decorum demands that a franchise icon be given a decent chance to prove himself.
If Posada doesn't start hitting by the end of the month, I would expect his playing time to go way down, especially if they fall further behind Tampa (or even -- gasp! -- the Red Sox). I doubt they would release him outright, though; they don't need the negative attention that would bring, and they could easily rationalize his spot on the roster as an emergency catcher and switch-hitting pinch-hitter.
May 14th, 2011 at 11:25 pm
Re: Helton and the HOF. If Bagwell is going to struggle to get in, then it's hard to see how Helton, a far inferior candidate, makes it in.
May 14th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
It seems Bagwell is being persecuted (unfairly?) for being a roider. There's no way he's anything other than a total lock for the hall otherwise.
May 14th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Todd Helton s definitely a hall of famer. The only reason for that even being up for debate is his playing for colorado. If he played for the yankees or red sox he would be considered one of the best pure hitters ever. I had an argument with someone once cause they thought Paul O'Neil was a sure fire hall of famer. Paul O'Neil??? You kidding? And don't give me the denver is a bandbox argument. Fenway isn't? Yankee stadium isn't? Please...
PS. Bagwell should have gotten in on the first ballot. Same with Barry Larkin too.
May 15th, 2011 at 12:28 am
Wes ... please! Coors Field pre-humidor was the best hitter's park in modern MLB history. It was a joke! When Helton hit .372 with 42 HRs in 2000, Coors had a park factor of 129. When he hit 49 HRs in '01, Coors had a park factor of 121.
Coors park factors for the first 7 years of Helton's career (1998-2004): 125, 125, 129, 121, 117, 110, 119. Average: 121.
Fenway for those same 7 years: 103, 106, 103, 102, 100, 106, 109. Average: 104.
Fenway Park plays more like Dodger Stadium than it does like Coors Field.
May 15th, 2011 at 12:45 am
@14, MikeD -- Very thoughtful post.
@19, Andy -- At first I thought you were way ahead of the timeline by speculating on Jorge's retirement. (And maybe you were even joking.) But in his postgame remarks, while he never came close to mentioning retirement, a followup question asked whether he'd cleared his head with the day off, and he replied to the effect of "not yet; I have to talk to my wife."
Posada also expressed surprise and upset that Brian Cashman had talked to the media during the game, whereas Cashman said Jorge knew in advance that was going to happen. Intrigue....
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6548896
May 15th, 2011 at 12:50 am
Some video clips here, including Posada's postgame interview.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/10887/cashman-girardi-need-to-protect-posada
May 15th, 2011 at 1:02 am
JA-
You are presuming Posada as a catcher. He is a DH now who sometimes catches.
May 15th, 2011 at 1:15 am
Hi, BSK -- Where did I presume Posada as a catcher? I think I only used that term in two ways:
(1) in reference to last year, when that was, in fact, his primary position; he caught 83 games, DH'd in 30, and played 1 game at 1B. This year, all DH.
(2) in speculating that the club would keep him on the roster, even if he wasn't a starter any more, as an emergency catcher and pinch-hitter.
May 15th, 2011 at 2:53 am
This reminds me of the thread in this blog about 12 months ago about David Ortiz being washed up.
May 15th, 2011 at 4:40 am
@28, John Autin, thanks. I was out this evening, so tonight's Posada incident was lost on me until I arrived back home, yet I knew something was happening as I sat in the restaurant, since I kept looking up and seeing ESPN showing clips of Posada, non stop, for what seemed like an hour. My reaction was, "really, Posada batting 9th is that big of a deal?" Obviously, it turned out to be a bit more.
I didn't grow up in NY, but I live there now, so I get to see, hear and go to quite a few Yankee and Met games. I'm fascinated by how David Wright, the Mets' best player, gets blamed for everything. (Never be the best player on a team that's losing, because you will be blamed for everything!). Or how the NY media treats aging stars like Jeter and Posada. I actually find players like Posada more interesting as they're trying to fight off age. I root for them, even if I hadn't before, hoping they can keep one step ahead of Father Time for maybe one more year. In the end, Father Time ALWAYS wins. To me, that makes Posada more interesting. He is battling for his athletic life, something he has known for 39 years, yet he may only have a couple weeks left.
It doesn't look good, but maybe, just maybe, he has one last drive in him. Some how, I feel his victory will be our victory. But I'm just getting old!
May 15th, 2011 at 5:03 am
My prediction is he sticks around til the end of the season and retires.
May 15th, 2011 at 10:01 am
He will hang on until Andy runs his Jorge Posada in the HOF poll
May 15th, 2011 at 10:07 am
Todd Helton HOF poll coming on Tuesday, provided I can get my act together and get it written.
May 15th, 2011 at 10:35 am
JA-
"Had he finished with that number, he would have ranked 4th in OPS out of 28 catchers with at least 300 PAs."
While you are right that this would have been accurate for last year, when he did primarily catch, it is meaningless this year, when he is solely a DH. How important is ranking 4th in OPS out of 28 catchers when one is no longer a catcher? The question is whether or not he can justify starting at DH. Looking at his numbers last year and comparing them to other catchers doesn't help. Even with his struggles last year, he might have been a useful catcher. But they do not make him a useful DH. A guy with a .700 OPS is not a useful DH.
May 15th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
Part of Posada's issue is that his numbers are still decent enough that he can convince himself that he can get back on track with just a little hot streak.
What he needs is a bad stretch like Mike Schmidt had before he called it quits at the end of May in 1989. From May 3 until he announced his retirement on May 28, he went 5 for 57 with no homers. That's bad enough that even the most prideful player realizes his time has come.
May 15th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
@ 30: Posada isn't a DH now who sometimes catches.
He's a DH now who NEVER catches.
May 15th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
Posada might get hot. But he is not the first player who has had a tough time coming to terms with the kloss of his skills to age.
http://pinetarandbrickbats.blogspot.com/2011/05/decline-fall-it-can-get-ugly.html
May 15th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
@37, BSK -- Thanks, I see your point now, and it's a good one -- his ranking among catchers last year is irrelevant to his usefulness as a DH this year.
May 15th, 2011 at 4:48 pm
How long does Posada have?
This year, I'd say. It's his contract year and the Yankees won't resign him. Doubt anybody else will.
Jorge, start your retirement speech.
May 15th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
JA-
And as Mike points out, he doesn't even catch a little any more.
May 15th, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Posada's career split stats show that he's not a "slow starter," either. So, we can't attribute this to that: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5502/splits;_ylt=AqU6EkCzqLtoSckGvnqvWOGFCLcF?year=career&type=Batting