38 Responses to “Batting Teams With 16+ Ks In 9-Inning Game”

1. Mets Maven Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 11:28 am

   It happened only 8 times prior to 1997. Since then, it has happened 22 times! It wasn't just PEDs that caused the power surge in the mid-1990s. It was also the way batters went about their business at the plate. From 2000-2010, K's have increased by 10% even while HRs have decreased by 20%. I predict a whole lot more 16+ K games in the near future!

2. jiffy Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 11:38 am

   I wonder how much of the increase in K's is due not just to all the pitcher specialization , but actually for a factor that might not make the most sense- guys working the count more or watching more pitches. No idea if teams that walk more also have more strikeouts because they attempt to wear down the opposing pitcher, or are more willing to take a strike 1 or 2 if it's not the pitch they want than before, but it seems plausible enough being that walks are seen as more valuable than in the past.

   Just a guess, nothing to back this up. The 2002 Brewers certainly don't support that theory with free-swingers like Sexson and Jose Hernandez getting a lot of ABs.

3. Morten Jonsson Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 11:51 am

   Note that when the Braves struck out 16 times in two different games in 1963, the first time this had ever happened, the opposing starter both times was Jim Maloney. In 1965, when the Phillies did it, both times it was Bob Veale. And in 1968, when the Reds did it, both times it was Don Wilson.

   Maybe even more remarkable is that all four of the Mariners' 16+ strikeout games in 1986 came within two weeks of each other. Twice against Jose Rijo, once, of course, against Roger Clemens, and then two days later against Bruce Hurst and the Boston bullpen. That was not a good team.

4. Neil L. Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 12:48 pm

   @2
   Jiffy, the ML average for pitches per plate appearance in 1991 was 3.68. This year it is 3.83, an increase of 4.1% over then. Last year the ML average was 3.82 pitches per PA.

   Don't think it is a statistically significant difference in 20 years. So patience at the plate is not responsible for an increase in strikeouts and 16+ SO games.

   @1
   Maven, an interesting observation. Normally HR's and SO's correlate positively. I wonder what has been gradually happening over the new millenium?

   Quite a bit of discussion relevant to your post, I think, took place in a blog here two weeks ago concerning bat control/making contact/swinging for the fences etc.

5. Jacob Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 12:49 pm

   @2
   Interesting concept; if you look at the six individual 1986 games each team (with the exception of SEA in the Clemens 20 K game) also had >= 5 BB.

6. LJF Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 12:58 pm

   Kind of interesting that most of these teams had pretty mediocre W/L records (75-85 wins). Only two 100 loss teams (PITT in 2010 and Brewers in 2002). And the '99 Braves make this list and won 103 games. Only the 2000 A's form the list won 90 games or more (91 in their case).

7. Dan Berman4 Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 1:45 pm

   It's also an indication that hitter just don't care as much about striking out. Keith Hernandez says he was always embarrassed to strike out. How many players today feel that way?

   http://pinetarandbrickbats.blogspot.com/

8. dukeofflatbush Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 2:00 pm

   The best performance I ever saw live was Schilling at the Vet in 1997. It was early Sept, but it was so hot that if you got out of your seat, you couldn't sit back down right away because the plastic was like a frying pan, I could only imagine the temp on the turf. Schill struck out 16 through 8, then was pulled to a classic classy Philly near-riot.
   I watched yesterday's game as well, and although it is a much different experience on TV, Lincecum made the Mets look silly. Then so did Wilson. To their defense, half the Met players are barely major league talent this year.
   The record, by the way, for 16+ Ks for a team in one season, is tie between the 2001-2002 D-backs with 12. You can guess who most of those SO are attributed to.
   Incidentally, Lincecum has the most SO to start a career through his first 4 years ('07-'10) and trails Seaver by a little less than 200 Ks for the first 5 years of one's career. Amazingly, Seaver has a ton more innings and Lincecum had a short first season.

   And to top off a Ks conversation, Mark Reynolds went 3-3 yesterday with a BB.

9. Neil L. Says:
   May 5th, 2011 at 3:05 pm

   @7
   "It's also an indication that hitter just don't care as much about striking out."
   Dan, I totally agree. The stigma of swinging and getting nothing but air is gone.

   @8
   " Mark Reynolds went 3-3 yesterday with a BB."
   Duke, make that the "much-maligned" Mark Reynolds. 🙂
   Now that he had that game what is going to hold the sky up? 🙂

10. Johnny Twisto Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 3:31 pm

    ncidentally, Lincecum has the most SO to start a career through his first 4 years ('07-'10) and trails Seaver by a little less than 200 Ks for the first 5 years of one's career. Amazingly, Seaver has a ton more innings and Lincecum had a short first season.

    Time for some Favorite Toy.

    Through 2010, Lincecum projected to have a 50% chance to reach 2905 career Ks, 45% to reach 3000, 15% to reach 4000, non-zero chance to reach 4902.

    Using the Zips projections at Fangraphs for his final 2011 totals based on what he's done so far this season, at the end of this year he will have 1170 career K. That would give him 53% chance to reach 3000, 50% chance to reach 3060, 17% for 4000, non-zero chance for 4949.

    At the same age as Lincecum through 2010 (actually about 6 months older), Nolan Ryan had just set the single-season record with 383 K and had 1205 in his career. His projections were 76% chance for 3000, 50% for 3468, 31% for 4000, 10% for 5000, 2% for 5714 (his career total) and a non-zero chance for 5730. I'm surprised, I would have assumed his career total was never seen as a realistic possibility by the Toy (which is inherently conservative) until he got there. And his projections would be even better after '74, when he put up his third straight season of well over 300 Ks. But I'm not going to run all those numbers right now.

    Neither is close to the leaders for most strikeouts through age 26.

11. dukeofflatbush Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 3:38 pm

    @ Neil L

    After Sep 1st of last year he had 4 hits, all singles. A .066 AVG & SLG.
    Going back to August of 2009, nearly 900 PAs, he is hitting .190 something. This includes his 3-3. And the .190 is evenly spread. He had it in his last 40 games of 2009, the entire 2010 campaign and now he is at .190 + once more.
    At one point in 2009, July 31st, he went on a 10 game tear, where his season AvG went to .290, then he just fell off - litterally.
    I can't see him playing much longer. His power is what kept him in the league, but he has 2 HRs going back to Sept of last year, in like 200 AB.
    I'll take the under till his demotion or release.

    If anyone can answer the longest AB or PA stretch that a player has hit under .200 (non-pitcher), I'd love to know the answer or how to find it myself using playindex.
    I'm sure MR is pushing the record now.
    And I'm sure if anyone knows, it is the living fact machine, anecdote, pleasure to read John Autin.
    Please start your blog already John. You'll have one fan here.

12. dukeofflatbush Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 3:44 pm

    @ JT

    I still believe, that just for the sake of it, Ryan could of hung on to reach 6,000. I thought it graceful for him to bow out, but he was still SO guys out and drawing crowds.
    Just your opinion, do you think his record is THE most unbreakable record in baseball?
    I mean 250 SOs for 23 years is ridiculous.
    Just in passing, I think a great weekly blog should be specific records and our vote on whether they will be broken, can be broken, under what circumsatnces and by whom.
    I think just Young's 511 is the only untouchable.
    But I could be wrong.
    What do you think?

13. Johnny Twisto Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 3:45 pm

    I'll also add that Walter Johnson's long-time record of 3509 K (now only 9th most ever) had a 48% chance of being broken by Ryan after '73. Steve Carlton (who eventually passed Johnson at around the same time as Ryan) had a 29% chance. Tom Seaver was at 41%. Bert Blyleven was at 44%. Don Sutton was at 19%. All those pitchers active in 1973, as well as Gaylord Perry (who had no projected chance) would eventually pass Johnson.

14. Mets Maven Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 3:55 pm

    @3
    It's easy to forget about Jim Maloney, since his peak coincided with Koufax's peak. However, from 1963-1966, he had the third best WAR among NL pitchers, ahead of Gibson, Drysdale, Bunning, and the other future HOFers pitching at that time, and behind only Marichal and "the skinny Jewish kid."

15. Johnny Twisto Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 3:56 pm

    Duke, I think Young's record would be tougher than Ryan's. It has stood for a lot longer and no one has ever been close. Strikeouts now are at an all-time high and keep increasing. Obviously that's been counteracted by diminishing IP. Of course it is hard to project how starting pitchers' usage will change in 20 years.

    Walter Johnson's record stood for 60 years and no one else had even reached 3000 Ks until the '70s, and then a whole batch of guys zipped by him, as shown above. So it can be hard to say how the numbers will change.

16. Neil L. Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 4:12 pm

    @12 @15
    "So it can be hard to say how the numbers will change."

    Duke and JT. Yeah, but speculating about unbreakable or future-breakable records is fun!

    Duke, I like your weekly blog idea @12. I think it would generate a lot of interest and discussion.

17. John Autin Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 4:40 pm

    Sorry to go off topic, but ...
    Peter Bourjos is about to lead off the 9th for the Angels, who lead the BoSox 11-0. Bourjos, batting 9th, has already scored 4 times. Only 2 players in the game-searchable era have scored 5 runs in a game while batting 9th: Luis Rivas (2002) and Spike Owen (1986). In both of those games, their team scored over 20 runs.

18. John Autin Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 4:41 pm

    And so much for that drama, as Bourjos flied out.

19. John Autin Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    Meanwhile ... There was a thread about 2 weeks back in which someone noted that Lance Berkman had done all his damage in just 2 games. That is no longer the case. After busting Mike Dunn's chops today -- notching the first HR and ER off Dunn this year with a go-ahead 3-run HR in the 8th, after Dunn had relieved J.Johnson -- Fat Elvis is hitting .392 with a 1.237 OPS, 10 HRs, 29 runs and 32 RBI in 29 games.

    Teammate Matt Holliday is hitting .417 in his 25 games.

20. John Autin Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 5:45 pm

    @11, DukeO.F. re: the longest AB or PA stretch that a non-pitcher has hit under .200:

    I can't answer that with scientific accuracy, as there is no direct way to milk that info out of the Play Index.

    But if the answer isn't Bill Bergen, I'll eat my Brooklyn Superbas replica cap.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bergebi01.shtml

    Bergen batted under .200 every year from 1904 through 1911, while serving mostly as Brooklyn's #1 catcher. For that 8-year period, he hit a combined .162 in over 2,000 ABs, with a .184 OBP and .187 SLG (1 HR). Hard to believe that Brooklyn was under .500 every one of those years....

    Bill Bergen's name turns up on so often on P-I searches of worst seasons or careers, I almost don't even notice him any more. His career line was .170 / .194 / .201, in over 3,000 ABs.

21. Neil L. Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 6:38 pm

    @20
    So, John, if Bergen is the answer to Duke's post @11, the question has to be asked why did general managers of his time keep him employed? Catcher is a premium defensive position but still.... it wasn't like there was a dearth of talent in Bergen's time like during the war years.

    Or, to broaden the question, why do any players who are so obviously an offensive statistical bust still have ML jobs.... read Juan Pierre from a recent blog?

22. ` Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 7:09 pm

    JUAN PIERRE - plays because he has a spanish first name and a french first name as his last name. That is the only reason.

    Seriously, Pierre is not as bad as he is made out to be on this site.
    He will get 2,000+ hits maybe 2,500.
    HE might even get 750 SB.
    4 seasons of 200 hit ball.
    and a really small head squeezed into a small helmet, so he looks like a 15 year old playing varsity.

23. joseph taverney Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 7:17 pm

    John Autin,

    Put your ketchup, salt and pepper away. Your Brooklyn Superbas hat is safe. I cannot imagine there ever being a player with a career that long being that bad. He even has a negative WAR. He must of had compromising pics of the GMs wife.
    A .201 SLG. 201. REALLY.
    Thank you for the find.
    Bill Bergen is the tenured Civil Servant of baseball.
    Terrible at his job, but unfireable.

24. Neil L. Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 7:39 pm

    @23
    Joseph, ketchup with a Superbas baseball cap? Naw, JA has gotta eat it straight!

25. Neil L. Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 7:49 pm

    @22
    Says, this is not a trash Pierre blog.

    The root issue, for me, is the gap between demonstrable offensive production and bad contracts. Juan Pierre, Vernon Wells trade, Carl Crawford 14M+ contract, Jorge Posada 13M+ contract etc.

26. John Autin Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 11:02 pm

    Bill Bergen was obviously in a class by himself. But there were very few good offensive catchers in his time.

    From 1901-11, 14 catchers amassed at least 2,000 PAs. Only Roger Bresnahan had a combined OPS+ over 100, at 131 -- and his 2 best seasons (1903-04) came while starting in the OF. Johnny Kling, a .268 hitter with some doubles power, was 2nd in OPS+ at 100.

    Two catchers besides Bergen in that period batted .207 or less in at least 2,500 ABs, Billy Sullivan and Lou Criger.

    It was a rough job in that era, with primitive equipment, and their hands took a beating. Not surprising that their offense suffered.

27. John Autin Says:
    May 5th, 2011 at 11:11 pm

    Bresnahan was the only catcher centered in the dead-ball era with a career OPS+ of at least 120 in 3,000+ PAs. The next to reach that level were Gabby Hartnett (1922-41) and Mickey Cochrane (1925-37).

    As late as 1983 (the last year of Johnny Bench and Gene Tenace), there had been only 12 modern catchers with at least a 120 career OPS+. From 1984-2010, there have been 6 -- Mickey Tettleton, Mike Piazza, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Jorge Posada, the last 4 still active. V-Mart (121) and McCann (122) are close enough to the line that their decline phase (when it comes) may drag them below the mark.

28. jason Says:
    May 6th, 2011 at 2:12 am

    today, ichiro was the only member of the mariners not to strike out against the rangers. the mariners lineup has been weak the past few seasons, basically ichiro and no one else of note. that got me thinking: who are the career leaders in games where they were the only member of their lineup not to strike out? is that something you could search for in the index?

29. Doug Says:
    May 6th, 2011 at 2:48 am

    @ Jason.

    I don't know that PI can directly find the result you're thinking about.

    I just ran a query that returned 9 games so far in 2011 (including the Rangers/Mariners game you mentioned) where a team had only 1 player with zero Ks. There have been no games so far this year where every player (or even just every starter) had at least 1 strikeout.

30. Doug Says:
    May 6th, 2011 at 2:50 am

    I meant to say "NOT including the Rangers/Mariners game". That will be in the database tomorrow.

31. Nash Bruce Says:
    May 6th, 2011 at 6:30 am

    @Morton(#3): Well, if I could reach, for a minute, the '86 Mariners were ahead of their times....what would become gospel, 10-15 years later, in 1986, they already grasped- that a strikeout, is only an out!! No biggie, better than a GIDP, for sure. In fact, '86 Seattle matched Billyball darlings '02 Oakland, by finishing in 9th place, in the AL, in OPS, in fact, the M's was 1 point higher, 97 to 96......yet the A's won 29 more games. Oops.
    Whether in the small-ball, dead-ball, "Powerball"-steroid era,
    or whatever, the one thing, that has always held true, is pitching, pitching, pitching......the '02 A's, were 1st in ERA, while the 86 M's, were next to last. It seems, that if you have pitching, you can pretty much win with whatever kind of 'offense', that you want.......2010 Giants, anyone??:)

32. Mets Maven Says:
    May 6th, 2011 at 8:23 am

    @27
    One of the neat things about the WAR statistic is that low WARs have as much meaning as high WARs, since it can go into the negatives. You need to play a lot to get a very low WAR. Whereas the usual suspects (pitchers and cups-of-coffee position players) cluster at the bottom of conventional statistics such as batting average, OPS, etc., this is not so with WAR. Pitchers and cups-of-coffee position players cluster around 0 WAR, but the big negative values are reserved for regular position players.

    I scanned the baseball-reference.com pages for the worst oWARs in major league history. Not surprisingly, Bill Bergen makes the top 10 list, with a -2.6 oWAR in 1909. His lifetime oWAR of -16.8 may be the lowest oWAR in baseball history. Can anybody confirm?

    Bergen's longeivity can be attributed to his defensive skills. I pulled this excerpt out of Wikipedia:

    "Bergen ranks ninth on the all-time list for assists by a catcher with 1,444, despite never being a full-time player. In 1908, The Sporting News called him one of the best catchers in the game."

33. Mets Maven Says:
    May 6th, 2011 at 10:36 am

    Just checked. Bergen's -16.8 career oWAR is by far the worst in the history of baseball. No pitcher has a career pWAR less than -10.

34. John Autin Says:
    May 7th, 2011 at 2:44 am

    @31, Nash Bruce -- The 2010 Giants were an above-average offensive team. True, they ranked 9th out of 16 NL teams in total runs scored; but they play in a pitcher's park, while several of the teams who scored more runs play in the best hitter's parks (Rockies, Phillies, Reds).

    By the measure of OPS+, the Giants ranked 7th in the NL, above the league average. They were also above average in raw OPS.

    You have repeated what I consider a common myth about the importance of pitching over hitting. Could you please cite some teams that were significantly below average in park-adjusted offense, but still won the World Series? Thanks in advance.

35. Nash Bruce Says:
    May 7th, 2011 at 6:11 am

    nope, I don't wish to challenge the champ!! LOL
    If you've got it pegged that dead on, then I will try to learn from it.......and, if I find anything to the contrary, then I will let you know;)

36. Dave V. Says:
    May 7th, 2011 at 10:12 am

    18 strikeouts by the Braves in a 9-inning game last night, vs. Cliff Lee and company (and the Braves won easily).

37. John Autin Says:
    May 8th, 2011 at 12:46 am

    @35, Nash Bruce -- I did not mean to imply that I know for a fact that no pennant winners (or next to none) had a below-average offense, when adjusted for their home park. But I've looked at every one of those teams on B-R at some point, and I just don't recall ever noticing a bad offense. Even the famous "Hitless Wonders" White Sox of 1906 -- last in the AL in batting, slugging and OPS, and well below average in OPS+ -- were actually above average in runs per game.

    Still, I may have overlooked or forgotten a few. So if anyone knows of a pennant winner with a bad offense, I'd still like to hear from you.

38. Nash Bruce Says:
    May 8th, 2011 at 5:54 am

    🙂