Is Curtis Granderson a whole new ballplayer?
Posted by Andy on May 3, 2011
Reader George S. wrote in to ask about Curtis Granderson. Much has been made of "The Grandyman"'s new-found power.
To illustrate what George is talking about, check out Granderson's game logs since August 14th of last year. From then through Sunday, Granderson has 22 HR and 51 RBI in 71 games. On a 162-game basis that's 51 HR and 117 RBI. He has a .938 OPS over that span.
Brian Heyman of the LoHud Yankees blog reports that since last Aug 14., only Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitski have more homers than Granderson. Heyman also references the change in Granderson's swing instituted around that time by hitting coach Kevin Long.
So is Granderson a changed guy or is this just a got streak? I tend to doubt that he's a whole new guy. From September 25, 2008 to June 19, 2009 (also a period of 71 games) Granderson had 19 HR, 46 RBI, and an .846 OPS. Yes, those numbers aren't quite as good as he's done lately, but they're not that far off. If a few fly balls go over the fence or stay in the yard, the numbers would be just about identical.
It may be true, however, that Granderson's tweaked swing is helping him drive the ball just a little bit further, pushing his power numbers up a bit.
May 3rd, 2011 at 8:51 am
Well, it's hard to say either way. Obviously skepticism is often warranted until a player proves otherwise, but there are a few points to be made (scroll down to the bottom of the post if you're pressed for time):
Granderson was a Tiger during the other hot period you reference. It's worth noting that in Granderson's career-high HR season he hit only 10 at Comerica but 20 on the road. Now, of course, he's in Yankee Stadium so he benefits from having a park that is friendly to power-hitting righties. In fact, other than the 174 PAs he got in 05 before his 'rookie' season, Granderson never managed to hit more homers at Comerica than on the road (though he got close on occasion). It would appear that trend has changed since he became a Yankee (14H, 10A) last season, but he's actually at 4H, 4A this year and the Yanks have played only 8 of their 26 games on the road. You could chalk the trend up in general to Comerica but he's been better on the road for his career (.795/.857 OPS) and if it isn't Comerica, that's just who he is. If so, perhaps at the end of the season he will get a net benefit not from playing half his games on the road but from playing in a better home park for a lefty slugger additionally.
He's also seeing more pitches per PA than ever (small sample size, obviously), and while there didn't seem to be any great pattern to his 3-2 HRs for his career, half of them are since he became a Yankee. That coupled with his increasing K rate the last three years (it is now almost as high as his 06 season) in addition to increased power (you could say he's been a 30HR guy since from '09 on except for his long slump and injury last year), lead me to believe that he is perhaps thinking more like a slugger than a lead-off guy, which is what he was before he became a Yankee. While his numbers don't show him to be particularly suited to being a leadoff guy (not quite a high enough OBA, too many K), he actually hits better with no one on base and leading off the inning pretty much year-in, year-out. While he has the 8HR he only has 18RBI--if I recall correctly his seventh homer only drove in his 13th RBI--but the last couple games he's gotten some RISP hits but he was doing pretty terribly in that area when I looked at his splits a week ago.
It should also be noted that he has been pretty bad against lefties for his career, and has only hit a high of 5 homers off lefties in a season. In his 30HR season he hit only 2 off lefties. However, this year, he actually started out poorly against righties, and his first 3HR all came against lefties. If he hits 15 or 20 HRs against lefties that would be astounding but if he can hit 8 or 10 and keep the average against LHPs from scraping the Mendoza line it would probably show that the changes he's made are permanent and significant.
Lastly, I'm a Yankees fan, so I've seen him bat many times, and he just looks better. He's the kind of guy that looks beat on lots of pitches and in lots of ABs, the kind of guy that sometimes makes that kind of bail-out, lunge type swing that a player makes when he's fooled or guessed wrong, and he just does that less often now (at least less often than during his slump last year--I can't speak for his time in Detroit as I didn't see him regularly). Like I said, I don't know how much he did it in Detroit but lately when he isn't knocking the ball around or having a bad couple of ABs where he seems to be fooled, he really battles and has long PAs, especially the last few games.
Is he a 50-homer guy? I don't think so, and I love the guy. He's not even a middle of the lineup guy yet--at least not on a real contender like the Yankees.
40HR guy? Maybe. Wouldn't surprise me though I'd qualify it as 'unlikely'. But if he can be a 40HR guy--if the guy we're seeing now is who he has become--he's still more of a Dunn-type slugger. He'll strike out a lot and maybe get you 40HR but I think he'll struggle to get to 100RBIs until he can bring up the RISP average, even on the Yankees.
Can he hit 30 year-in, year-out? I think he can. He doesn't look that strong but he can hit some pretty decent bombs--not J. Upton or A. Dunn bombs--but pretty damn good no-doubters.
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Too long; didn't read version:
He seems to be hitting lefties a little better, and with a bit more power, he seems to have a lower percentage of totally crappy ABs where he looks like he belongs in AAA since he tinkered with his stance/swing, he seems to have more ABs where he battles the pitcher and makes the pitcher earn the out instead of quickly whiffing at a breaking ball in the dirt, he seems to have slightly sluggerized his approach since '09, and he has pretty good protection in the lineup (since Gardner imploded to start the season, though Gardner has improved lately, Granderson has been batting second a lot. In addition, when he has batted at the bottom of the lineup he has had a rejuvenated Martin behind him a lot of those times).
May 3rd, 2011 at 8:55 am
*Power-hitting lefties in the second paragraph.
May 3rd, 2011 at 9:25 am
The problem with this is that it's just too small a sample to decide anything. As the post points out he had similar numbers during the other hot period. I think you have to let things play out a little bit more to see if Granderson is really a different hitter.
http://pinetarandbrickbats.blogspot.com/
May 3rd, 2011 at 10:13 am
Oh yeah. That huge wall of text and I forgot to mention one other key point: April is Granderson's best month for AB:HR.
May 3rd, 2011 at 10:28 am
Another factor just might be that Granderson has a better supporting cast in New York; with fewer pitchers pitching around him, he probably has more opportunity to "go long"
May 3rd, 2011 at 11:15 am
Sorry to use this topic to mention Soriano's power resurgence...a MLB-leading 11, including 5 in his last five games to move him into the top 100 all-time.
Looking at that list then, with one more, Soriano will push Willie Horton out of the top 100. I believe that when Horton retired at the end of the 1980 season, he and former teammates Al Kaline and Norm Cash were all in the top 40 all-time. It doesn't seem like 30+ years ago.
May 3rd, 2011 at 11:17 am
If his performance since Aug. 14, 2010 represents the "real" Granderson, it certainly is a change. But is it better than the prime of the "old" Granderson?
In his last 70 games, he has 22 HRs in 286 PAs, which is terrific.
But he's not doing much offensively except hitting HRs.
Here's his full line for those 70 games:
-- Counting stats: 9 doubles, 3 triples, 22 HRs, 43 runs, 51 RBI, 4 SB, 3 CS
-- Rate stats: .261 BA / .345 OBP / .586 SLG / .931 OPS
Now I'll project it to 162 games, and compare it to his 162G rates for 2007-08 combined:
Counting stats:
2010*-11: 662 PA, 576 AB, 100 R, 150 H, 21 2B, 7 3B, 51 HR, 118 RBI, 74 BB, 155 SO, 9 SB, 7 CS, 7 GDP
2007-08: 707 PA, 631 AB, 127 R, 184 H, 35 2B, 20 3B, 24 HR, 76 RBI, 67 BB, 137 SO, 21 SB, 3 CS, 5 GDP
Rate stats:
2010*-11: .261 BA / .345 OBP / .586 SLG
2007-08: .292 BA / .363 OBP / .524 SLG
We can't directly compare the runs and RBI, because he led off for Detroit but hits in the bottom half for NYY.
But considering the difference in ballparks -- his career OPS in Comerica is 41 points below his overall mark, while in New Yankee it's 26 points above -- and in the surrounding lineups, I think the old Granderson was at least as productive as this new guy, probably more so. And definitely a more entertaining type of player, for my money.
May 3rd, 2011 at 11:37 am
P.S. @6 -- The bolding of the 2010-11 counting stats was accidental.
And perhaps the comparison is easier to read in columnar form:
Yr .... ’07-08 ... ’10*-11
BA ....... 292 ... .261
OBP ... .363 ... .345
SLG ... .524 ... .586
PA ....... 707 ... 662
AB ....... 631 ... 576
R ......... 127 ... 100
H ......... 184 ... 150
2B ......... 35 ..... 21
3B ......... 20 ....... 7
HR ........ 24 ..... 51
RBI ....... 76 ... 118
BB ........ 67 ..... 74
SO ..... 137 ... 155
SB ....... 21 ....... 9
CS ......... 3 ....... 7
GDP ...... 5 ....... 7
May 3rd, 2011 at 12:18 pm
I thought the 2007 Granderson was a MVP-caliber player in a pitchers park. He might not have missed much time but I always thought he was battling some sort of nagging injuries the past few years. Maybe he's just healthy again.
Power spikes and career years are fun. Projection tools only give an estimate with error bars. Players will always fall outside the range. Its the noise that makes the game fun to watch.
Or it could just all be random. Mike Bordick had 7 HR in the first 22 games of the 2000 season.
May 3rd, 2011 at 12:21 pm
I certainly remember thinking in 2007 that Granderson was a star in the making and was going to become one of the top players in the AL.
In the offseason after 2007, I wrote about him here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/539
Plus I noted when he joined the 20/20/20/20 club:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/293
(20 each of doubles, triples, HR. and SB in a single season!)
May 3rd, 2011 at 3:17 pm
He seemed to be a better hitter earlier in his career, then again, teams may have eventually picked up a weakness and exploited it, requiring him to make additional adjustments, which he did later last year.
He has improved against lefties based on his last couple of years in Detroit and the first part of 2010 in NY.
A completely different hitter? I don't know about that, but I'm willing to give credit to the ballplayer for making adjustments that seemed to have helped. Players can improve, especially if they have a weakness against same-sided pitchers. Just takes a commitment to make changes and, of course, the underlying skill, which Granderson has.
May 3rd, 2011 at 5:05 pm
@ 6 and a .286 OBP with just 3 walks (1 intentional)
Really makes you wonder: why throw him a strike?
May 3rd, 2011 at 8:39 pm
This may just be the YES network bias, but Kevin Long is praised quite a bit. In fact, now that i think about it, even the Post and the News, two NY daily papers talk highly of long. He gets lots of credit, not just for results, but of giving guys tons of time and using film. I can't think of any off the top of my head, but he has been credited with other players' improvements.
I know, Granderson has definitely made a change in his swing. How much of that is Long, I can't say. But a small change in mechanics is what Toronto's Bautista credits to his career change.
May 4th, 2011 at 1:28 am
@6, at the end of 1980, Willie Horton was #39 on the alltime HR list.