13+ Wins In 1st 15 Games Since 1919
Posted by Steve Lombardi on April 3, 2011
How many teams have won 13 or more of their first 15 games, of a season, since 1919?
Here's the list:
| Rk | Tm | Year | #Matching | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OAK | 1981 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 2 | MIL | 1987 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 3 | DET | 1984 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 4 | CLE | 1966 | 14 | Ind. Games |
| 5 | SFG | 2003 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 6 | NYG | 1938 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 7 | BRO | 1955 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 8 | ATL | 1994 | 13 | Ind. Games |
| 9 | ATL | 1982 | 13 | Ind. Games |
.
The '66 Tribe went on to go 81-81 that season. And, the '38 Giants didn't do that much better. Go figure.
April 3rd, 2011 at 9:31 am
FYI - The Streak analyzer in the frivolities section also does this. Box-scores aren't needed, so there's no need for a 1919 cutoff. The best 200 and worst 200 fifteen-game starts of all-time are here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/streaks.cgi?games=15&year=ALL&SHOW=TOT&includes=start_year&game_start=10&game_end=135&teams=ALL&orderby=wins&submit=Find+Streaks
(There's a lot of 1870s-80s teams on the list. I normally like 19th century data, but I could see using a more recent cutoff on this this to clean it up a bit.)
April 3rd, 2011 at 9:35 am
The fun part of these lists are the teams that didn't end up having good seasons. The 1914 Pirates started 13-2 and ended up finishing 7th
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=1914-05-03
That was the "Miracle Braves" season where the standings almost fully inverted themselves over the course of the season.
April 3rd, 2011 at 12:56 pm
The three best team of the last 25 years are not on this list.
April 3rd, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Which of these hot starts had the biggest impact on the pennant race?
One candidate is the '81 A's. After opening 14-1, they went just 23-22 before the strike, which came with them holding a 1.5-game lead in the AL West. In the 2nd half, they finished 2nd in the split-season format. On the other hand, the A's did finish with the best overall record in the AL that year and had a 5-game bulge in the West division season standings, so it was only the split-season format that rendered the hot start so crucial to their making the playoffs.
BTW, the A's had a CG in 12 of those first 15 games, including 4 shutouts, and allowed just 21 runs total. They didn't allow 4 runs until the 17th game, nor more than 4 until the 22nd.
The '82 Braves won their first 13, then dropped 5 straight. They had a 7-game lead in early August, but lost 11 straight and 15 of 16 to fall 4 games behind the Dodgers. They were still 3 back with 10 to play, but they went 7-3 while LA went 3-7. The Dodgers could have tied on the final day by beating SF, but Joe Morgan's famous 3-run HR off Terry Forster in the bottom of the 7th broke a tie and dealt LA a death blow -- to the delight of 47,000 fans in Candlestick.
Incidentally, that HR in his last PA of the year gave Morgan an even .400 OBP, his 8th qualifying season at that level and his first since '77. It was a subtly great campaign for a 38-year 2B; in 134 games, Morgan had 14 HRs, a 136 OPS+, 24 steals with just 4 CS, just 3 GDP, and made only 7 errors. He ranked among the NL's top 10 in OBP (2nd), WPA (4th) and RE24 (9th), and his 5.1 WAR put him just outside the top 10.
April 3rd, 2011 at 7:24 pm
Just looking at the since-1919 data, it's only AL teams winning 14, and only NL teams winning 13.
April 3rd, 2011 at 10:53 pm
1966 Indians: Sam McDowell got hurt. Larry Brown (the shortstop, not the basketball coach), got hurt. Rocky Colavito tailed off, and the Orioles stayed within a game or two of Cleveland at the start of the year. Cleveland's season ended early.
April 4th, 2011 at 10:37 am
@6
Tiant was a big part of the opening streak. Tiant had three shutouts in the first 15 games. And a 4th not too long after that. But he seem to break down frequently after that and spend most of the middle of the summer in the bullpen.
April 4th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Conversely, the '84 Tigers kept rolling, to the tune of 35-5, and then coasted (so to speak) through the rest of the season and the post-season.
Somewhat similar story for the other WS winner on the list. The '55 Dodgers won the pennant handily, although they needed 7 nail-biting games to dispatch the Yankees in the WS.
On another post recently was reference to the '69 Twins, who started 0-4 but then righted the ship to go on a 16-3 run, and were never headed again. They were swept by the Orioles in the ALCS, but the first two games were extra-inning heart-breakers.