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Jacoby Ellsbury’s historically amazing season

18th August 2011

Jacoby Ellsbury is just killing it this year. He's already got 22 HR, 78 RBI, and 87 runs.

Here the only leadoff hitters (minimum 100 games out of the #1 spot) to reach the same totals as Ellsbury, along with a 130 OPS+:

HR OPS+ RBI ▾ R Year Age Tm G PA AB H 2B 3B BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
Jacoby Ellsbury 22 137 78 87 2011 27 BOS 120 547 496 155 31 2 39 78 31 11 .313 .368 .516 .884 *8/D
Grady Sizemore 33 133 90 101 2008 25 CLE 157 745 634 170 39 5 98 130 38 5 .268 .374 .502 .876 *8/D
Hanley Ramirez 29 145 81 125 2007 23 FLA 154 706 639 212 48 6 52 95 51 14 .332 .386 .562 .948 *6/D
Alfonso Soriano 46 135 95 119 2006 30 WSN 159 728 647 179 41 2 67 160 41 17 .277 .351 .560 .911 *7
Darin Erstad 25 137 100 121 2000 26 ANA 157 747 676 240 39 6 64 82 28 8 .355 .409 .541 .951 *78D/3
Craig Biggio 22 143 81 146 1997 31 HOU 162 744 619 191 37 8 84 107 47 10 .309 .415 .501 .916 *4/D
Brady Anderson 50 156 110 117 1996 32 BAL 149 687 579 172 37 5 76 106 21 8 .297 .396 .637 1.034 *8/D
Kirby Puckett 31 141 96 119 1986 26 MIN 161 723 680 223 37 6 34 99 20 12 .328 .366 .537 .903 *8
Brian Downing 28 132 84 109 1982 31 CAL 158 725 623 175 37 2 86 58 2 1 .281 .368 .482 .850 *7
Bobby Bonds 32 151 85 93 1975 29 NYY 145 626 529 143 26 3 89 137 30 17 .270 .375 .512 .888 *98D/7
Bobby Bonds 39 142 96 131 1973 27 SFG 160 738 643 182 34 4 87 148 43 17 .283 .370 .530 .900 *9/8
Bobby Bonds 26 134 78 134 1970 24 SFG 157 745 663 200 36 10 77 189 48 10 .302 .375 .504 .879 *98
Tommy Harper 31 146 82 104 1970 29 MIL 154 692 604 179 35 4 77 107 38 16 .296 .377 .522 .899 *54/789
Eddie Joost 23 137 81 128 1949 33 PHA 144 682 525 138 25 3 149 80 2 1 .263 .429 .453 .883 *6
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/17/2011.

Through 121 Red Sox games, Ellsbury is on pace for 116 runs, 104 RBI, and 29 HR. The only guy on the list to match those totals was Brady Anderson in 1996, and he had the benefit of 43 games batting second, 50 homers, and the possibility of a steroid boost.

Aside from Ellsbury, only Anderson, Puckett, and Sizemore played primarily center field.

He's also younger than the median age of the list above and will probably only get better.

Posted in Uncategorized | 140 Comments »

Random recap for Wednesday: Stanton a HR champ at 21?

18th August 2011

-- Mike Stanton homered for the 4th straight game and is 2nd in the NL with 29 HRs, one behind Albert Pujols. The youngest modern player to lead either league in home runs was Tony Conigliaro in 1965, with 32 HRs at age 20. Eddie Mathews (21) was the youngest NL HR champ in the live-ball era, with 47 HRs in 1953; Stanton is about a month younger than Mathews was that year.

  • With 51 career HRs, Stanton is 13th on the list of most HRs through age 21 (see table below); he needs 3 more to crack the top 10. He's the 7th player with 50+ HRs within his first 2 seasons through age 21.
  • I've never heard this mentioned on TV: Stanton's defensive metrics are also excellent. He leads the NL with 1.7 defensive Wins Above Replacement this year, and was 10th with 1.4 dWAR last year; for more traditional stats, he's among the leaders in both range factor and assists. The two-way combination makes him 10th in NL position-player WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Uncategorized | 78 Comments »

Game-Ending Triple Plays and Walk-Off Double Plays

17th August 2011

Searching the Batting-Event Finder for game ending double or triple plays with no outs in the ninth inning or later yields 2 interesting lists. One is a list of game-ending triple plays ; the other is a list of plays in which the winning run scores on a double play. I'll separate the lists and combine the years to make the reading easier.

First the game-ending triple plays:

Yr# Gm# Date Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Pit(cnt) RBI WPA RE24 LI Play Description
1 1 1953-05-22 Irv Noren NYY @WSH Bob Porterfield down 12-4 t9 12- 0 0 -0.00 -1.48 .10 *ENDED GAME*:Line Drive Triple Play: P-1B-SS
2 1 1953-08-29 Karl Olson BOS @CHW Virgil Trucks down 5-1 t9 12- 0 0 -0.07 -1.51 1.57 *ENDED GAME*:Line Drive Triple Play: 1B-SS
3 1 1955-09-25 (2) Bobby Hofman NYG PHI Jack Meyer down 3-1 b9 12- 0 0 -0.33 -1.51 5.20 *ENDED GAME*:Line Drive Triple Play: SS-2B-1B
4 1 1966-09-17 Andy Etchebarren BAL CHW Tommy John down 3-1 b9 -23 0 0 -0.42 -1.89 4.96 *ENDED GAME*:Ground Ball Triple Play: 1B-SS-C-P
5 1 1967-05-30 Phil Gagliano STL @CIN Don Nottebart down 2-1 t9 1-3 0 0 -0.55 -1.82 4.52 *ENDED GAME*:Triple Play: Groundout: SS-2B-1B-C
6 1 1977-06-03 John Wathan KCR BAL Tippy Martinez down 7-5 b9 123 0 1 -0.51 -1.36 6.61 *ENDED GAME*:Triple Play: Flyball: RF-SS-2B-SS/Sacrifice Fly; Cowens Scores
7 1 1978-04-21 Ron Cey LAD HOU Ken Forsch down 8-6 b9 12- 0 0 -0.31 -1.41 5.19 *ENDED GAME*:Triple Play: Flyball: 1B-SS
8 1 1991-09-08 Chris Sabo CIN @MON Barry Jones down 4-2 t9 12- 0 2 (1-0) 0 -0.26 -1.42 4.49 *ENDED GAME*:Ground Ball Triple Play: 3B-2B-1B (Weak 3B)
9 1 2009-08-23 Jeff Francoeur NYM PHI Brad Lidge down 9-7 b9 12- 0 5 (2-2) 0 -0.32 -1.47 5.20 *ENDED GAME*:Line Drive Triple Play: 2B unassisted (SS-2B); Castillo out at 2B/2B; Murphy out at 1B/2B
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/16/2011.

and the Walk-Off Double Plays

Yr# Gm# Date Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Pit(cnt) RBI WPA RE24 LI Play Description
1 1 1956-07-27 Roy Campanella BRO CHC Turk Lown tied 3-3 b10 12- 0 1 (0-0) 0 0.18 3.22 *ENDED GAME*:Double Play: Bunt Groundout: 3B-2B-SS-2B; Hodges Scores/No RBI
2 1 1973-06-21 Bob Robertson PIT NYM Tug McGraw tied 1-1 b9 123 0 0 0.07 2.67 *ENDED GAME*:Double Play: Groundout: 2B-C/Forceout at Hm; Oliver out at 2B/RF-SS; Cash Scores/No RBI
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/16/2011.

Posted in Uncategorized | 31 Comments »

Three players with 2 triples in a game on the same day

17th August 2011

I already remarked on Bryan Petersen's 2-triple game, but two other guys also had two triples in a game yesterday:

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO WPA RE24 aLI BOP Pos. Summary
1 Alejandro de Aza 2011-08-16 CHW CLE W 8-7 7 7 2 3 0 2 0 2 0 1 0.190 1.858 1.699 2 CF RF
2 Bryan Petersen 2011-08-16 FLA COL W 6-5 5 5 1 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 0.129 1.657 .710 2 LF
3 Nick Hundley 2011-08-16 SDP NYM W 6-1 4 4 2 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 0.184 2.610 .670 6 C
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/17/2011.

When is that last time this happened?

It took a bit of digging, but the last time was in 1948:

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BOP Pos. Summary
783 Joe DiMaggio 1948-06-13 NYY CLE W 5-3 4 4 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 CF
784 Johnny Lipon 1948-06-13 (1) DET WSH W 9-3 5 4 2 3 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 SS
785 Bob Dillinger 1948-06-13 (2) SLB PHA L 1-3 4 4 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 3B
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/17/2011.

It's a bit more common for two players to do it on the same day. That's happened as recently as September 16, 2006, when Aaron Miles and Bernie Castro both did it.

Posted in Uncategorized | 15 Comments »

Bryan Petersen and two triples in a game

17th August 2011

Bryan Petersen of the Marlins had two triples in last night's Marlins game, his 60th in the majors.

Here are the last 25 guys (before Petersen, whose game is not in the database yet this morning) to have 2 triples in a game among their first 60 career games:

Rk Gcar Player Date Tm Opp Rslt BOP Pos. Summary
1 33 Logan Morrison 2010-09-03 FLA ATL W 6-1 2 LF
2 59 Alcides Escobar 2010-04-21 MIL PIT W 8-0 8 SS
3 5 Andrew McCutchen 2009-06-08 PIT ATL L 6-7 1 CF
4 35 Matt Tolbert 2008-09-13 (2) MIN BAL W 12-6 2 2B
5 41 Tony Pena 2007-04-02 KCR BOS W 7-1 9 SS
6 53 Bernie Castro 2006-09-16 WSN MIL W 8-5 7 2B
7 47 Tike Redman 2003-08-01 PIT COL W 12-11 1 CF
8 11 Robby Hammock 2003-06-08 ARI CLE W 13-3 7 RF
9 52 Mark Ellis 2002-08-03 OAK DET W 8-4 6 3B
10 5 Adam Piatt 2000-04-30 OAK MIN W 8-2 5 DH
11 8 Carlos Beltran 1998-09-21 KCR DET L 5-7 2 CF
12 47 Orlando Cabrera 1998-07-30 MON SFG W 12-6 2 2B
13 55 Shannon Stewart 1997-09-20 TOR NYY L 3-4 1 CF
14 56 Jesus Tavarez 1995-08-28 FLA HOU W 6-4 8 CF RF
15 30 Vinny Castilla 1993-04-26 COL CHC L 3-6 8 SS
16 31 Tom Marsh 1992-09-13 PHI PIT W 6-3 7 LF
17 47 Alex Cole 1990-09-12 CLE CHW W 12-2 1 CF
18 51 Darrin Jackson 1988-06-12 CHC STL W 4-3 8 CF
19 14 Jose Lind 1987-09-12 PIT PHI W 12-4 2 2B
20 33 Luis Quinones 1986-06-04 SFG MON W 4-2 6 3B
21 60 Danny Tartabull 1986-05-13 SEA MIL W 8-5 1 2B
22 53 Juan Samuel 1984-05-18 PHI SFG W 1-0 1 2B
23 9 Jeff Stone 1983-10-01 PHI PIT W 5-3 9 CF
24 27 Butch Davis 1983-09-24 KCR MIN W 12-4 2 LF
25 4 Spike Owen 1983-06-28 SEA CHW W 6-2 1 SS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/17/2011.

So here's something a bit odd. Last night, Petersen batted 2nd and played LF, meaning that he and the most recent guy to do it before him (Logan Morrison) both did it for the Marlins, batting 2nd, and playing LF.

The full list)since 1919)  of guys to triple twice within their first 60 games is here. The last #4 hitter to do it was Elston Howard in 1955. The last catcher was Carlton Fisk in 1972. The last first baseman is a bit less well-known: Bud Zipfel in 1961.

Posted in Uncategorized | 16 Comments »

Leading the league in triples and homers

16th August 2011

A couple of readers wrote in about this, so here's the answer.

Curtis Granderson has a decent shot at leading the AL this year in both homers and triples. This was raised in the comments on a recent post. Thanks to reader Voomo Zanzibar who mentioned that Mickey Mantle (1955) , Willie Mays (also 1955), and Jim Rice (1978) all led the league in homers and triples in the same year.

In 1978, Rice led the AL in hits, triples, homers, RBI, SLG, OPS, and had 406 total bases. I guess that's why he won the MVP 🙂

Posted in Uncategorized | 76 Comments »

Reader’s research: Thome’s 600th HR and no waiting for a major milestone

16th August 2011

I don't think too many people expected Jim Thome to reach 600 HRs last night, and most of us were surprised when he followed his 6th-inning homer with another in the 7th, vaulting right into the 600 HR club in just one plate appearances after reaching 599 career HRs.

This is the opposite of what we often see--Tony Gwynn recently described how the last 10 hits before 3,000 were so hard and the pressure in each plate appearance was immense.

When Derek Jeter ultimately reached 3,000 hits, he did it just like Thome--he got to 2,999 in the first inning and then homered in his next plate appearance in the 3rd inning.

What other players reached major milestones in the first possible plate appearance?

Posted in Uncategorized | 13 Comments »

Thome tags two to reach 600 HRs

15th August 2011

Tonight in Detroit, Jim Thome homered in the 6th and 7th innings to become the 8th player in MLB history with 600 HRs. His 5 RBI led the Twins to a 9-6 victory.

It's fitting that Thome reached this major milestone against the Tigers. He's hit 65 HRs in 211 games against Detroit, his most against any opponent and an average of 50 HRs per 162 games.

Thome has homered against all 30 teams and in 38 different MLB parks. Surprisingly, he has never homered in 10 games at Coors Field.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Uncategorized | 43 Comments »

An R.B.I. Leader, but Not an Elite Hitter – NYTimes.com

15th August 2011

An R.B.I. Leader, but Not an Elite Hitter - NYTimes.com.

My piece in the Times this week has caused some pushback from Phillies fans.  Some have pointed out that Howard is #3 in RBI perc, so it isn't just his # of opportunities.

But that ignore that Howard is an RBI hog.  Rather than just get on base he is up there flailing, so he drives in a higher percentage of runs, but costs his team runs in the long run.

Here are the top 46 batters (since 2006) in percentage of runners on base (for their PA) who eventually score either due to their RBI or due to a subsequent play.

There are some teammate effects here as the better the hitters behind you, they are going to pick up the slack for you. But I think Howard has had pretty good hitters behind him, so he probably benefits on net from the teammate effect.

So you would read this as Joe Mauer came up with 1982 runners on base. He drove in 356 and 824 scored at some point in the inning for 41.6% of all baserunners.


  Batter               PA    runners   RBI-HR  Rnrs who event. score  % of runners that event. score
| Joe Mauer         | 3148 |    1982 |    356 |               824 |                   41.6 | 
| Albert Pujols     | 3827 |    2530 |    448 |              1031 |                   40.8 | 
| Joey Votto        | 2405 |    1410 |    261 |               569 |                   40.4 | 
| Bobby Abreu       | 3877 |    2443 |    442 |               975 |                   39.9 | 
| Josh Hamilton     | 2346 |    1482 |    289 |               590 |                   39.8 | 
| Chase Utley       | 3558 |    2173 |    361 |               864 |                   39.8 | 
| Chipper Jones     | 2951 |    1941 |    318 |               771 |                   39.7 | 
| Michael Young     | 3973 |    2446 |    430 |               968 |                   39.6 | 
| Freddy Sanchez    | 3122 |    1728 |    287 |               679 |                   39.3 | 
| Todd Helton       | 3236 |    1936 |    311 |               757 |                   39.1 | 
| Mark Teixeira     | 3923 |    2697 |    453 |              1044 |                   38.7 | 
| Lance Berkman     | 3448 |    2192 |    383 |               845 |                   38.5 | 
| Ryan Braun        | 3005 |    1902 |    347 |               729 |                   38.3 | 
| Magglio Ordonez   | 3120 |    2170 |    380 |               829 |                   38.2 | 
| Dustin Pedroia    | 3014 |    1766 |    245 |               673 |                   38.1 | 
| Matt Holliday     | 3740 |    2531 |    449 |               960 |                   37.9 | 
| Jim Thome         | 2735 |    1744 |    296 |               660 |                   37.8 | 
| Carl Crawford     | 3481 |    2069 |    332 |               782 |                   37.8 | 
| Asdrubal Cabrera  | 2124 |    1290 |    199 |               486 |                   37.7 | 
| Derek Jeter       | 3994 |    2282 |    343 |               858 |                   37.6 | 
| David Ortiz       | 3541 |    2539 |    427 |               953 |                   37.5 | 
| Carlos Beltran    | 3036 |    1998 |    350 |               748 |                   37.4 | 
| Gary Sheffield    | 1553 |    1100 |    140 |               411 |                   37.4 | 
| Evan Longoria     | 2223 |    1543 |    267 |               573 |                   37.1 | 
| Vladimir Guerrero | 3384 |    2265 |    397 |               837 |                   37.0 | 
| Miguel Cabrera    | 3886 |    2588 |    472 |               954 |                   36.9 | 
| Jason Giambi      | 2140 |    1592 |    246 |               586 |                   36.8 | 
| Gary Matthews     | 2171 |    1279 |    199 |               471 |                   36.8 | 
| David Wright      | 3667 |    2428 |    421 |               893 |                   36.8 | 
| Victor Martinez   | 3224 |    2260 |    401 |               824 |                   36.5 | 
| Justin Morneau    | 3218 |    2295 |    407 |               838 |                   36.5 | 
| Placido Polanco   | 3426 |    1918 |    300 |               700 |                   36.5 | 
| J.D. Drew         | 2958 |    1994 |    285 |               726 |                   36.4 | 
| Derrek Lee        | 3176 |    2008 |    319 |               728 |                   36.3 | 
| Aramis Ramirez    | 3184 |    2177 |    399 |               789 |                   36.2 | 
| Hanley Ramirez    | 3755 |    1972 |    300 |               710 |                   36.0 | 
| Alex Rodriguez    | 3450 |    2599 |    460 |               936 |                   36.0 | 
| Conor Jackson     | 2342 |    1517 |    233 |               546 |                   36.0 | 
| Johnny Damon      | 3619 |    2047 |    303 |               734 |                   35.9 | 
| Angel Pagan       | 1842 |    1019 |    162 |               366 |                   35.9 | 
| Kevin Youkilis    | 3416 |    2337 |    383 |               838 |                   35.9 | 
| Nick Markakis     | 3897 |    2360 |    376 |               845 |                   35.8 | 
| Jeff Keppinger    | 2026 |    1145 |    166 |               410 |                   35.8 | 
| Jeff Kent         | 1509 |    1049 |    160 |               374 |                   35.7 | 
| Ryan Zimmerman    | 3435 |    2201 |    348 |               785 |                   35.7 | 
| Shin-Soo Choo     | 2214 |    1450 |    233 |               518 |                   35.7 | 
| Shane Victorino   | 3349 |    1783 |    250 |               636 |                   35.7 | 
| Carlos Guillen    | 2427 |    1659 |    258 |               592 |                   35.7 | 
| Ryan Howard       | 3886 |    2825 |    520 |              1007 |                   35.6 | 

Posted in Uncategorized | 89 Comments »

Curtis Granderson’s last 162 games

15th August 2011

Curtis Granderson has now played in 162 games since the switch in his batting style that has been largely cited for his vastly improved performance. His stats over those last 162 games:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Uncategorized | 91 Comments »