Archive for the 'Splits' Category

I heard a bit on ESPN radio about how Eric Gagne was historically much better in save situations than in non-save situations.

That's easy to see from his splits.

In 216 games comprising save situations, he had an ERA of 2.31. In 138 games comprising non-save situations, he had an ERA of 3.06. While both numbers are good, that's a pretty significant difference. Note that the non-save situations excludes game starts which, although clearly a situation in which a save can not be earned, doesn't really apply to what we're looking at. Early in his career, Gagne was a starter, and it's helpful that the "non-save situation" already excludes game starts.

As a reliever, his career OPS against was .573, which is excellent. In save situations, that figure is .524 while in non-save situations it was .639. Again, both figures are good but that is a very large difference over so many innings (over 370 total.)

Eric Gagne's highest similarity score is to Bobby Thipgen, who had an even more stilted set of splits in favor of save situations. Thigpen's ERA was more than 1.5 runs higher in non-save situations.

I wonder why this is. I've heard managers reference that their closers do best when pitching one inning (the 9th usually.) But is this cause or effect? Clearly Gagne and Thigpen both did better when pitching in save situations, but was it their mentality or the hitters' mentality, or something else?

For a bit more data, I checked Mariano Rivera's splits, and he's much closer, although still a little better in save situations. Ditto for Trevor Hoffman.

I also notice that the K/BB ratios for all these guys are significantly higher in save situations. I wonder if that has to do with eagerness of the batters, knowing that they need runs and perhaps are more likely to swing, and therefore more likely to swing and miss.

Thoughts on this?

Just 7 players have gotten at least 100 RBI in each season at ages 34, 35, and 36:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+
 Raul Ibanez       2006 2008 34-36       3 Ind. Seasons                   
 Gary Sheffield    2003 2005 34-36       3 Ind. Seasons                   
 Rafael Palmeiro   1999 2001 34-36       3 Ind. Seasons                   
 Paul O'Neill      1997 1999 34-36       3 Ind. Seasons                   
 Andres Galarraga  1995 1997 34-36       3 Ind. Seasons                   
 Stan Musial       1955 1957 34-36       3 Ind. Seasons                   
 Babe Ruth         1929 1931 34-36       3 Ind. Seasons              

Ibanez is easily the most surprising name on there as a late bloomer. His first 100-RBI season didn't come until age 30 and his second was the one at age 34. He's 37 years old now and has averaged more than 24 HR the past 4 years, and yet hasn't reached 200 career homers.

By comparison, Gary Sheffield had 449 HR at the end of his age 36 season. Babe Ruth had 611 HR at that time.

Ibanez has had a fantastic start this season including his best March/April ever as well as what is already his best May ever. Assuming he falls back towards his career averages for the rest of the year, he still has a good shot at setting career highs in HR, RBI, BA, OBP, and SLG this year.

Jonathan Papelbon has had a fantastic career so far and appears likely to become one of the best closers of the next decade, taking over for Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. But I have to say that the guy is a complete jackass. While I don't think it's his job to be a role model and do the job that parents are supposed to do, he has behaved like a complete idiot on numerous occasions. I think he would do better to shut his mouth and keep his inappropriate behavior limited to when there aren't TV cameras or journalists around. (FYI a few examples of his behavior are drunken rants after the Red Sox won the World Series in 2007, many public comments about how great it is to drink beer and get drunk, how "closers gotta get paid", and numerous other comments about how important money is.)

Anyway, during his recent negotiations with Boston that ended in a record contract for a relief pitcher with so little experience, I heard someone argue that Papelbon was overused by the Red Sox in 2008 and was lousy when he had to pitch on back-to-back nights. That's an easy thing to check just by looking at his 2008 pitching splits, specifically for pitching by number of days of rest.

 I Split         G   GS GF  W  L  S CG SHO   IP    ERA   H   R   ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP
+-+------------+---+---+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+------+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+
   0 Days,GR     18   0 17  2  1 14  0   0  18     2.00  16   5   4  1   1   0  13   0
   1 Day,GR      20   0 19  1  3 13  0   0  21     1.29  11   5   3  0   2   0  21   0
   2 Days,GR      8   0  6  1  0  3  0   0   8.1   6.48  10   6   6  2   2   0  12   0
   3 Days,GR      8   0  7  0  0  4  0   0   8.1   1.08   9   4   1  0   1   0  14   0
   4 Days,GR      5   0  5  0  0  2  0   0   5     1.80   4   1   1  0   0   0   8   0
   5 Days,GR      2   0  2  0  0  0  0   0   1.2   0.00   2   0   0  0   0   0   3   0
   6+ Days,GR     6   0  6  1  0  5  0   0   7     3.86   6   3   3  1   2   0   6   0

It's true that he was only a little worse on back-to-back days. He allowed 1 more earned run in 3 fewer innings, and his hit rate was higher, and his strikeout rate was lower. But his numbers with zero days rest were still excellent. Interestingly, his numbers with 2 days rest were pretty bad, thanks I'm guessing to those 2 HR he allowed. I doubt that has much to do with how much rest he had.

Going back to 2007, we can learn a few things:

 I Split         G   GS GF  W  L  S CG SHO   IP    ERA   H   R   ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP
+-+------------+---+---+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+------+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+
   0 Days,GR      8   0  8  0  1  6  0   0   8     1.12   2   1   1  1   2   0  12   0
   1 Day,GR      13   0 11  0  1  9  0   0  13     3.46  10   5   5  1   6   0  19   1
   2 Days,GR     18   0 16  1  1 11  0   0  18     1.00   7   2   2  0   2   0  23   1
   3 Days,GR      8   0  7  0  0  6  0   0   8.1   3.24   6   3   3  2   2   0   9   0
   4 Days,GR      8   0  7  0  0  3  0   0   7     1.29   3   1   1  1   3   0  14   1
   5 Days,GR      3   0  3  0  0  1  0   0   3     0.00   2   0   0  0   0   0   5   1
   6+ Days,GR     1   0  1  0  0  1  0   0   1     0.00   0   0   0  0   0   0   2   0

Firstly, he was used a lot less on back-to-back nights, although his pitching was awesome in those cases. He was used on 2 days' rest a lot more as well. My guess is that the Red Sox management felt that he had gotten stronger in 2008 (he had an arm injury previously) and were willing to pitch him more frequently last year.

Anyway, sorry about the rant on the guy. Great pitcher, just a total jerk. He may match Rivera and Hoffman in performance but I don't think he'll ever match either guy in class.

Traditionally,  certain types of players have been cast for specific positions in the batting order (speedy leadoff hitter, contact #2 hitter etc.).  Here are some players who bucked the trend. All lists are 1956-2008.

Disclaimer: This is by no means meant to be worst of list. To make this list a player has to play a tremendous amount of games hitting in a  particular slot in the batting order.  Additionally,  players who get their stats in bunches, as I suspect was the case with Billy Williams,  will be penalized as well. Nevertheless, I thought that it would still be fun to take a look.

Most games in a season batting leadoff, but not recording a stolen base.

 Pete Rose         1975   162 Ind. Games
 Chuck Schilling   1961   150 Ind. Games
 Dave Cash         1975   149 Ind. Games
 Pete Rose         1973   148 Ind. Games
 Pete Rose         1976   147 Ind. Games
 Pete Rose         1971   146 Ind. Games
 Pete Rose         1978   146 Ind. Games
 Don Kessinger     1969   146 Ind. Games
 Pete Rose         1968   145 Ind. Games
 Don Kessinger     1968   145 Ind. Games
 Pete Rose         1969   144 Ind. Games

Usually, the Batting Game tool  is not perfect for searches like this, because it doesn't take into account playing time and games with multiple occurrences. However, when a player can go an entire season, play every single game and get shutout in them all, then you know he is the champ.  In 1975 Pete Rose did just that. 162 games leading off  and not 1 stolen base.  In fact for his career Rose averaged 8.75 stolen bases per 162 games leading off.

Most games batting second and recording at least 1 strikeout.

 Dan Uggla         2007    95 Ind. Games
 Jay Bell          1999    93 Ind. Games
 Jay Bell          1993    91 Ind. Games
 Royce Clayton     2004    90 Ind. Games
 Lou Brock         1964    90 Ind. Games
 Phil Bradley      1985    89 Ind. Games
 Dwight Evans      1982    87 Ind. Games
 Alex Rodriguez    1998    86 Ind. Games
 Dwight Evans      1984    86 Ind. Games
 Robby Thompson    1989    85 Ind. Games

If you look further down the list Jay Bell's name pops up a few more times. For his career,  Bell averaged over 116 strikeouts per 162 games from the #2 hole.

Most games batting third without knocking in a runner.

 Carl Yastrzemski  1975   110 Ind. Games
 Billy Williams    1968   110 Ind. Games
 Dale Murphy       1986   109 Ind. Games
 Billy Williams    1967   107 Ind. Games
 Tony Gwynn        1989   106 Ind. Games
 Ryan Zimmerman    2007   105 Ind. Games
 Carl Yastrzemski  1963   105 Ind. Games
 George Brett      1976   105 Ind. Games
 Carl Yastrzemski  1968   104 Ind. Games
 Cal Ripken        1984   104 Ind. Games

If you click on the link, you'll see that two names dramatically  jump out from this search Carl Yastrzemski and Billy Williams.  Yastrzemski averaged 91 RBI per 162 games  as a number 3 hitter in his career. Williams's average was 100.5 per 162.

Most games batting fourth without hitting a homerun.

 Joe Torre         1969   141 Ind. Games
 Bobby Murcer      1973   141 Ind. Games
 Bob Watson        1973   140 Ind. Games
 Justin Morneau    2008   140 Ind. Games
 Ron Santo         1963   139 Ind. Games
 Greg Luzinski     1982   139 Ind. Games
 Joe Torre         1971   138 Ind. Games
 Alex Johnson      1970   138 Ind. Games
 Bobby Bonilla     1989   138 Ind. Games
 Bobby Bonilla     1991   138 Ind. Games

The two names that appear most often on this list are Joe Torre and Bobby Bonilla.  For his career Torre hit 20.25 home runs per 162 games batting fourth.   Bonilla's career was a mixed bag. In all he hit  26.39 home runs per 162 games batting fourth.

I'm going to leave it at that. If anyone wants to pick it up, I'd be interested to see what you come up with.  One word of caution: This doesn't work well on the career level. There are players who are so good at what they do that they dominate the playing time at their batting order postion and then by default finish at the top of the zero games as well. For example, the player with the second most career 0 SB games from the leadoff slot is Rickey Henderson.   So try it with single seasons, I think that the top few names are revealing.

In honor of today's inauguration of a new American president, here are a few "presidential" facts about El Presidente, Dennis Martinez:

Most PAs against Martinez:

                   **PA**  AB  H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
 Barry Bonds         100    92  21  5  1  1   7   8   8  .228  .290  .337  .627   0   0   2   0   0

None other than Barry "U.S." Bonds.

Most HR against Martinez:

                    PA  AB  H  2B 3B **HR** RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+------+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
 Jim Rice           95  85  32  4  4    7    26   7   8  .376  .421  .765 1.186   0   2   0   1   2

None other than outgoing Secretary of State Jim "Condoleeza" Rice.

He gave up a homer to Randy "George" Bush:

  Car# Year Date          Tm   Opp Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit Play Desc.
+-----+----+-------------+---+----+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
     1 1983 1983-05-25    MIN @BAL ahead  2-0  t 1 12-   1  -      Flyball: CF (Deep CF)

  Car# Year Date          Tm   Opp Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit Play Desc.
+-----+----+-------------+---+----+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
     2 1984 1984-07-04    MIN  BAL tied   0-0  b 2 ---   0  -      Strikeout
     3                             down   1-3  b 4 ---   1  -      Groundout: 2B-1B
     4                             down   1-5  b 7 ---   0  -      Home Run

  Car# Year Date          Tm   Opp Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit Play Desc.
+-----+----+-------------+---+----+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
     5 1985 1985-07-09    MIN @BAL tied   0-0  t 1 ---   2  -      Ground-rule Double
     6                             ahead  1-0  t 3 12-   1  -      Walk; Puckett to 3B; Hatcher to 2B
     7                             ahead  4-0  t 4 1-3   2  -      Lineout: 1B            

And so on...

Recently I wrote that the Red Sox should try to keep Jason Varitek because catcher's offensive contributions have been steadily in decline. My metric of 20 HR, 75 RBI seasons was (reasonably) questioned by some, so here is a less arbitrary way of looking at it.

Using the basic splits across the major leagues (such as can be found here) I've graphed OPS+ contributions by positions as far back as the data goes, to 1956.

Here is the raw data:

So remember that an average major leaguer comes in at 100. A quick look at the above graph reveals things like:

• Overall, there is far less spread among the positions today than there used to be, save for the early 1980s when the spread was also small.
• First baseman have been the biggest contributors, leading baseball almost every year. The difference was huge back prior to the mid-70s, when 1B's occasionally had OPS+ values as high as 130!!
• Other above-average contributors have been RF, LF, DH, 3B, and CF, with each of those positions being above 100 nearly every single year.
• Centerfielders have been on a continuous decline over the last 50 years. In the late 1950s, they were as highly ranked as 1B and the corner outfielders. By the 1970s, third basemen had caught CFs. In the last 5 years, CFs have now fallen below 3B.
• Catchers, shortstops, and second basemen have been below average nearly all years.
• However, while catchers show a steady decline over this 50-year period, 2Bs and SSs have come closer to the pack, consistently hitting 90 or higher the last bunch of years.
• Finally, and more to the main point of this post, catchers how now fallen to be the least-contributing group in baseball. They have been dead last or tied for last in 7 out of the last 8 years.

There are numerous other interesting things that can be gleaned from the above graph, such as the bumps up in 1998 for 1B and RF when McGwire and Sosa when on their HR-hitting sprees. I encourage you to take a more detailed look at the plot on your own.

For those who'd prefer a simpler view, I offer this 10-year average of the above data. So, for example, the data for 2008 is an average of the values by position for the years 1999 through 2008.

This graph very clearly shows the gradual and continual decline of catchers. They were close to average in the 1960s but have steadily fallen off. By this 10-year average, they've actually become the worst group in baseball in the last 2 years.

Accepting the fact that catchers are the least productive hitters, this doesn't mean that the Red Sox should accept a terrible offensive player at the position. What it does mean, though, is that they are unlikely to be able to find a catcher that is a truly significant contributor, and assuming that Varitek's value to the pitching staff is real and significant, I feel that they are better off with him than with some other offensively-average catcher.

Longtime major leaguer Brett Myers spent the All-Star break this year in the minors, thanks to a horrendous first half. He was sent down to work some things out, but returned in July to the Phillies.

Obviously, he figured something out in the minors.

Check out his splits so far this year:

 I Split         G   GS GF  W  L  S CG SHO   IP    ERA   H   R   ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP
+-+------------+---+---+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+------+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+
   1st Half      17  17  0  3  9  0  0   0 101.2   5.84 115  70  66 24  44   3  88   3 
   2nd Half       9   9  0  6  1  0  1   1  63.2   1.55  53  12  11  2  15   1  56   3 

More than 4 runs have come off his ERA and his HR rate has all but vanished. His K/BB ratio has improved considerably, as has his hits/9IP.

If the Phillies stand any chance of overtaking the Mets again this year just like they did last season, they'll need Myers to continue his fantastic second half.

Reader thebest suggested I take a look at Wade Boggs and how well he did despite (or due to) often taking the first pitch.

Unfortunately, we have pitch-by-pitch data for plate appearances only from 1988 onward, and even then it's not totally complete. We miss the first bunch of years of Boggs' career. But let's see what we can learn from what data we have available. All of this information comes from Boggs' career splits for pitch data.

Firstly, just how often did Boggs really let the first pitch go by?

We can see that he had 367 plate appearances that ended on the first pitch. He had a .360 BA in those PAs, damn good even for Wade Boggs. He had 3418 PAs that ended sometime after the count went to 1-0. Clearly he took the first pitch in those cases. He had another 2905 PAs that ended sometime after the count went to 0-1. We don't know what fraction of these were taken strikes vs swings that resulted in foul balls. Lets examine the two extreme cases:

Imagine that in the 2905 PAs that had a count of 0-1, Boggs took a called strike every single time. That would mean that he took the first pitch a total of 3418 + 2905 = 6323 times, as compared to 367 times that he swung, meaning he swung only 5.5% of the time, which does indeed seem quite low. Imagine, instead, that in those 2905 PAs, he swung and hit a foul ball every time. That means he took the first pitch 3418 times, meaning he swung at the first pitch only 49.0% of the time.

I wish we knew how often he swung, but we just don't have the data available.

If Boggs truly did take the first pitch very often, then pitchers should really have made sure to throw him a strike. However, even if all those 2905 PAs with an 0-1 count were called strikes, they still threw him a strike less often than they threw a ball (as evidenced by the 3418 PAs with a 1-0 count.)

For comparison purposes, let's look at a couple of other players. First, the best comparison for Boggs is Tony Gwynn, in terms of type of hitter and era of career.

Gwynn (again, after 1988) swung at the first pitch in 1009 PAs. He had 3216 more that went to 1-0 and 2571 more that went to 0-1. The ratio of 1-0 to 0-1 PAs is very similar to that for Boggs, but Gwynn clearly swung at the first pitch a lot more. Using the same two types of extreme cases as above, Gwynn swung at the first offering between 14.8% and 52.7% of the time. When I say that Gwynn swung at the first pitch more often, I'm assuming that the two players had a similar ratio of called strikes vs foul balls on the 0-1 counts--and that may not be a valid assumption.

Let's check one more guy: Don Mattingly, who also had a reputation of taking the first pitch. After 1988, Mattingly had 465 PAs that ended on the first pitch. He had 2335 that went 1-0 and 1798 that went 0-1. That's a range of swinging at the first pitch of 10.1% to 49.2%.

All of these quick results ignores stuff like HBP, which obviously affects the total number of times a player swung or didn't swing.

This is just a quickie. Phillies fans will remember this well. In 1995, Tyler Green made the All-Star team after a first half where he went 8-4 over 96 innings, allowing 80 hits and 3 HR with a 2.81 ERA. However, in the second half, he went 0-5 over 44.2 innings, allowing 77 hits and 12 HR with a 10.68 ERA. You can get this info from his 1995 splits.

That's 1 HR every 32 innings in the first half, and more than 1 HR every 4 innings in the second half. That's quite a difference.

Green had some good games in subsequent years (such as this one) but was never regained his consistency from the first half of 1995.

Sports Reference Blog » BIG Split Update on Baseball-Reference.com

Details on big updates to the splits.