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A pretty good argument can be made that the season is already over for the Boston Red Sox in terms of making the playoffs. Please read down and then vote in the poll at the bottom. Read the rest of this entry »

It's Jamie Moyer Week here at the Baseball-Reference.com Blog. I say that because I know my post for tomorrow is about him and I've written something about him just about every day for a week already.

Please go back and read the posts and comments about Moyer here and then vote in the poll below.

Wow...what a World Series!

Lots to talk about. Let's start with Andy Pettitte.

From the post-season leaders page, we can see some of Pettitte's all-time post-season rankings.

He's first in wins:

Wins

Those 18 wins came over 249 IP in 40 games and starts. So that's a little over one regular season's worth of starts, and he's managed 18 wins, which is very good. (Remember that in the post-season, you're facing all good teams, so he has no doormats with which to pad his win total. Winning at a rate of 15-16 games for a full-year equivalent is impressive.)

Pettitte is also up there in losses:

Losses

At 18-9, he's won twice as often as he's lost, which again is very good.

Check out the all-time leaders in games pitched:

Games Played

This table summarizes the baseball playoffs nicely. In the Wild Card era, there are so many more games that all the records belong to modern guys, and over that same period, it's been pretty much all Braves, Yankees, and Red Sox.

Pettitte is number 1 in homers allowed:

Home Runs

However, 5 of the top 10 guys above actually allowed homers at a higher rate than Pettitte (including, obviously, Jaret Wright--wow!) Catfish Hunter sticks out as the only holdover from prior to the Wild Card era.

Anyway, the bottom line is that Pettitte has been very impressive. He's pitched in 8 World Series (including with Houston in 2005.) True, he's been lucky to be on such good teams, but A) he had a lot to do with them being so good and B) regardless of how he got the opportunities, he has done well with them.

It's interesting to debate his Hall of Fame credentials. His position as a top pitcher on 8 World Series teams goes a long way, in my opinion. He's got the 63rd-highest win total of all time, but only the 229th-highest loss total (translation: he's got a great winning percentage.) He has two 20-win seasons (actually 21 both times) and finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting in 5 different seasons.

The marks against him are primarily these:

• He has only 229 career wins (as mentioned, 63rd all time) which would be a very low total for a Hall of Famer.
• His excellent W-L record seems to be at least partially a product of playing on such good teams. He came to the Yankees in 1995 when they made the playoffs for the first time in a long time and has never pitched for a poor team. His ERA+ is only 116 which, while very respectable, is not excellent. His neutralized pitching totals tell the story. They say his record should be (gulp) 162-146, a whopping 67 wins fewer than he has. This means that if he hadn't been on the Yankees, he'd be much closer to a .500 pitcher in all likelihood. This would give him numbers more like Tim Wakefield, Livan Hernandez, or Kevin Millwood. These are all good pitchers but clearly not HOFers.

What do you think?

Charlie Manual has already announced that Pedro Martinez is going to start Game 2 of the World Series against the Yankees. That's pretty fascinating to me as Pedro was a big part of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry from 1998-2004, including 5 ALCS starts against the Bombers during that span.

Below, I talk a little about what we might expect from Pedro in this start. First, however, I want to get a poll out of the way. Is Pedro's start the most compelling storyline in this World Series? Let's hear what you think, then please read on below.

Firstly, let's look at Pedro's career post-season appearances against the Yankees:

  Cnt Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP   ERA
+----+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------+
    1 1999-10-16    ALCS   3 BOS  NYY W 13-1  GS-7  ,W   7    2  0  0  2 12  0           83       25 23  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00

    2 2003-10-11    ALCS   3 BOS  NYY L  3-4  GS-7  ,L   7    6  4  4  1  6  1  98  63   54       28 26  2  0   0   1  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   5.14
    3 2003-10-16    ALCS   7 BOS @NYY L  5-6  GS-8       7.1 10  5  5  1  8  2 123  77   45       33 32  4  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   6.14

    4 2004-10-13    ALCS   2 BOS @NYY L  1-3  GS-6  ,L   6    4  3  3  4  7  1 113  64   55       27 22  0  0   0   1  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   4.50
    5 2004-10-18    ALCS   5 BOS  NYY W  5-4  GS-6       6    7  4  4  5  6  1 111  62   43       31 24  1  0   0   2  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   6.00
    6 2004-10-20    ALCS   7 BOS @NYY W 10-3   7-7       1    3  2  2  0  1  0  20  15       0  0  6  6  2  0   0   0  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0  18.00

His first ever game against them in the playoffs was a gem, a start in the 1999 ALCS. This was the only game the Red Sox won in that series. Pedro was the Game 3 starter--can you name the starters in Games 1 and 2? I bet not. The answers are Kent Mercker in Game 1 and Pedro's brother Ramon in Game 2.

Anyway, after that first game in 1999, Pedro's performances against the Yankees in the playoffs have been pretty dismal, totaling 30 hits and 18 earned runs in 27.1 IP. The gopher ball has been his biggest problem, having given up 5 homers (although 4 were solo shots) over those 27.1 innings. Only 3 pitchers have given up more playoff homers to the Yankees. If you can guess those 3, you are amazing. (Click here for the answers.)

Pedro's career regular season numbers against the Yankees are as follows:

11-11 record, 3.20 ERA over 216.2 IP (32 games and starts, more than against any other team.) His K/BB ratio is 4.14 and OPS against is .603.

Compare those to his overall career numbers:

219-100, 2.93 ERA, K/BB ratio of 4.15 and OPS against .613.

Other than a slight edge in OPS, his numbers are all below his own averages against the Yankees. HOWEVER, keep in mind that he's played against the Yankees primarily when they have been a powerhouse team. They have hit very well against most of the league and Pedro's numbers against them are much better than nearly all other pitchers over the same span.

The real question, of course, is: does any of this history actually matter? We're talking about a player who turned 38 a few days ago and who was already on the down side of his career when he faced the Yankees in the playoffs 5 years ago. Pedro usually tops out at 91-92 MPH now and is not the same type of pitcher he was before.

However, in the regular season with the Phillies this year, Pedro struck out 37 and walked just 8 in 44.2 innings. Those numbers sure sound like the old Pedro even if he's not throwing nearly as hard as he used to. (But, just to remember how good Pedro was in 1999 and 2000---his K/BB ratio this season is an excellent 4.63 which is just over half of what it was those seasons--8.46 and 8.88!!!)

A better question might be: how have guys this old fared in the post-season before? When Pedro takes the mound in Game 2, it will rank 128th on the list of oldest starters in a post-season game, right ahead of himself against the Dodgers last week and behind Orel Hershiser's start in the 1996 ALDS for the Indians. He'll be the 42nd-oldest World Series starter. By my count, the 41 starts ahead of him have seen the starters go 14-16 with 11 no-decisions. Teams were 17-24 overall in these 41 games.

I did a little math and in the 41 games, the total stats are a 3.84 ERA over 248.1 IP with 92 BB, 170 K, and 20 HR allowed. These numbers are drawn over such a long period of time that off the top of my head I don't know how they compare to younger (average) pitchers over the same span, but my gut instinct is that they are not likely to be all that different. In summary, while it's fairly rare for such an old pitcher to start a World Series game, the ones who do it are usually among the few older pitchers who are still pitching effectively.

Anyway, what do I expect in the game started by Pedro? If I had to guess, we won't see a dominant performance but we also won't see him get hammered. He's already pitched pretty well in many important games this year and there's no reason o think he won't do so again in Game 2. Also, since he's facing the inconsistent A. J. Burnett, anything can happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pedro come away with the win.

Incidentally, I'm picking the Yankees in 7 games.

Here are a few random World Series thoughts as well as two polls at the bottom for you to vote in.

• Has there ever before been a Game 1 of the World Series where the two starting pitchers were teammates the previous season, but not on either World Series team? I'm referring of course to Cliff Lee and C. C. Sabathia, who were teammates on the Indians last season. Seeing them face each other in the World Series has got to be extremely bitter for the Indians franchise and their fans.
• The Phillies are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back World Series championships since the Yankees in 1998-2000. Prior to that it was the Blue Jays in 1992-1993 and the Pirates in 1979-1980. It feels weird to mention the Pirates and the World Series in the same paragraph.
• The Yankees and Phillies last met in the World Series in 1950.
• These two teams played earlier this season in a wild 3-game series in May starting with this game. Brad Lidge blew two saves in the series, Brett Myers started one game, Chien-Ming Wang pitched in relief, A-rod had been playing for just a couple of weeks, and Bret Tomko was pitching for the Yankees. Seems like a million years ago.

Anyway, here are two polls. First is what you think will happen and second is what you'd like to happen.

Below is a poll for the National League Cy Young award. As with my poll for the AL award,the 10 guys I put on the ballot are based on the Cy Young Predictor formula (developed by Bill James and Rob Neyer), which can be seen right here on ESPN.com. Keep in mind that this award is based only on regular-season performance, so please try to ignore anything good or bad you've seen in the post-season.

Also here are some stats (and links to each player) you can use to research your vote.

Here are all the NL pitchers this year to make at least 28 starts, strike out at least 144 batters, and win at least 14 games:

  Cnt                        GS  SO  W Year Age Tm  Lg  G  CG SHO GF  L  W-L% SV   IP   H   R   ER  BB   ERA  ERA+ HR  BF  HBP
+----+-----------------+---+---+---+--+----+---+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+-----+--+-----+---+---+---+---+------+----+--+----+---+
    1 Matt Cain              33 171 14 2009  24 SFG NL  33  4   0  0  8  .636  0 217.2 184  73  70  73   2.89  148 22  886   3 
    2 Chris Carpenter        28 144 17 2009  34 STL NL  28  3   1  0  4  .810  0 192.2 156  49  48  38   2.24  185  7  750   7 
    3 Jorge de la Rosa       32 193 16 2009  28 COL NL  33  0   0  0  9  .640  0 185   172  95  90  83   4.38  103 20  799   9 
    4 Danny Haren            33 223 14 2009  28 ARI NL  33  3   1  0 10  .583  0 229.1 192  83  80  38   3.14  143 27  909   4 
    5 Ubaldo Jimenez         33 198 15 2009  25 COL NL  33  1   0  0 12  .556  0 218   183  87  84  85   3.47  130 13  914  10 
    6 Josh Johnson           33 191 15 2009  25 FLA NL  33  2   0  0  5  .750  0 209   184  77  75  58   3.23  129 14  855   6 
    7 Jair Jurrjens          34 152 14 2009  23 ATL NL  34  0   0  0 10  .583  0 215   186  71  62  75   2.60  160 15  884   3 
    8 Tim Lincecum           32 261 15 2009  25 SFG NL  32  4   2  0  7  .682  0 225.1 168  69  62  68   2.48  173 10  905   6 
    9 Wandy Rodriguez        33 193 14 2009  30 HOU NL  33  1   1  0 12  .538  0 205.2 192  77  69  63   3.02  138 21  849   5 
   10 Javier Vazquez         32 238 15 2009  32 ATL NL  32  3   0  0 10  .600  0 219.1 181  75  70  44   2.87  145 20  874   4 
   11 Adam Wainwright        34 212 19 2009  27 STL NL  34  1   0  0  8  .704  0 233   216  75  68  66   2.63  158 17  970   3 

This includes all the starting pitchers in the poll below.

Here are all the NL pitchers with at least 36 saves this season.

  Cnt                       SV Year Age Tm  Lg  G   GS CG SHO GF  W  L  W-L%   IP   H   R   ER  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+ HR  BF  HBP
+----+-----------------+---+--+----+---+---+--+---+---+--+---+--+--+--+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+--+----+---+
    1 Heath Bell            42 2009  31 SDP NL  68   0  0   0 59  6  4  .600  69.2  54  21  21  24  79   2.71  138  3  278   0 
    2 Jonathan Broxton      36 2009  25 LAD NL  73   0  0   0 58  7  2  .778  76    44  24  22  29 114   2.61  160  4  300   1 
    3 Francisco Cordero     39 2009  34 CIN NL  68   0  0   0 59  2  6  .250  66.2  58  21  16  30  58   2.16  204  2  276   0 
    4 Ryan Franklin         38 2009  36 STL NL  62   0  0   0 54  4  3  .571  61    49  13  13  24  44   1.92  217  2  250   1 
    5 Trevor Hoffman        37 2009  41 MIL NL  55   0  0   0 46  3  2  .600  54    35  11  11  14  48   1.83  229  2  210   1 
    6 Brian Wilson          38 2009  27 SFG NL  68   0  0   0 60  5  6  .455  72.1  60  27  22  27  83   2.74  156  3  303   1 

This includes all the relievers in the poll.

One more thing...the AL poll got more than 400 votes. Even if you don't normally post comments on this blog, I'd love to hear why you made your selection. This is a great time to post your first comment!

Finally, here's the poll:

One of the close races for this year's seasonal awards is the American League Cy Young award.

This simple poll asks who you think deserves the award, which isn't necessarily the same as who you think will win.

I hope to incorporate a lot more polls here, so stay tuned.