PI Finds: Werth Comparables, Corner OFers, 1975-2010, Ages 29-31, OPS+ ≥ 100 and 1700+ PAs – Baseball-Reference.com
Posted by Sean Forman on December 6, 2010
Corner OFers, 1975-2010, Ages 29-31, OPS+ ≥ 100 and 1700+ PAs - Baseball-Reference.com
Jayson Werth's career number clearly don't justify the contract he just signed, but the Nationals aren't signing him for what he's done, but for what they think he'll do, and Werth has been a full-timer for essentially three years. Here are similar players of recent vintage to compare him to along with their ages 32-38 WAR.
Dwight Evans (a pretty good comp to my eye, though Werth has more speed)--24 WAR, George Foster--7.6 WAR, Albert Belle--3.3 WAR, Garrett Anderson 4.1--WAR, Bobby Bonds 8 WAR, Tony Gwynn 23 WAR (similar in value, but not in style at all).
So Nationals fans had better be hoping for Dwight Evans, which would make it a reasonable contract rather than George Foster or Bobby Bonds which would make it a disaster.
December 6th, 2010 at 10:10 am
Also of note in the dollar value are the need to overpay to get good players to come to Washington at this point in time, the significance of 'making a splash' (whatever that significance might be), and the growing relationship between the Nats and Scott Boras, who just got his first real swindling over them after getting negotiated to fair (but massive and historic) contracts for Harper and Strasburg.
This also puts those contracts in perspective; when low-eight and high-seven-figure contracts are the highest ever for college and juco draftees, while 7/126 is "only" the 13th-highest ever for a true FA, it shows how much less expensive drafting is. Hopefully the Nats continue to draft and sign smartly at the cost-controlled end of the age spectrum and don't take a page from Dan Snyder.
December 6th, 2010 at 10:19 am
Dwight Evans was a late bloomer (success-wise), compared to most of the other "comps" listed above. He had several full seasons in place prior to his 29-31 seaesons. His first .370+ OBP season was his 28 year old season.
December 6th, 2010 at 10:20 am
Bake McBride - nice!
December 6th, 2010 at 10:38 am
This is why the Nats are the Nats. Are they nuts?
December 6th, 2010 at 11:24 am
OTF-
I'm not sure that we can conclude that drafing is necessarily cheaper. To really get a sense of how much drafting costs, you have to factor in ALL draft picks, both those who make it and those who don't.
In some ways, it is possible that the two areas are leveling off. Rookie contracts, as evidenced by Strasburg and Harper, continue to rise. FA contracts have, largely, fallen. Werth may get the largest contract this offseason (only Crawford really has a chance to top him) and his is still "just" the 13th highest ever, with many of those coming over a decade ago.
It's still certainly possible that drafting is cheaper, but I don't think we conclude that by simply comparing 3 deals.
December 6th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
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December 6th, 2010 at 11:28 pm
I imagine that Brian Sabean and Jim Hendry are resting just a bit easier tonight....
But seriously, I do wonder what those two would have said to Mike Rizzo just before this deal was signed, if they could have been assured of complete secrecy.
I think that the Giants' and Cubs' GMs publicly defend the Zito and Soriano contracts, but what do they really feel?
And I'm trying to think of a whopper of a contract for a player who wasn't already one of the very best players in the game has ever really worked out.
There have been some megadeals that did what the teams hoped. Barry Bonds, take him for all in all and everything that came with him, helped the Giants win a lot of games and made a ton of money for them; in his time there, he game them brand impact and enough cash flow to build their own stadium; you could even say the Barry Effect extends to the (mostly) home-grown rotation that led them to this year's title.
But Barry had already won 2 MVPs in 3 years before the deal. He was Junior Griffey crossed with Rickey Henderson. And he was only 28 years old.
Others? Reggie Jackson and the Yankees, of course, though he lasted just 5 years there (4 good ones). And probably some others in between that escape me at the moment. But I'm looking back over the last couple of decades' biggest paydays, and I'm seeing a lot of buyer's remorse.
I guess I'm just stating the obvious, though.
December 6th, 2010 at 11:36 pm
And ... this just goes to show (further) that anyone who blames Marvin Miller even one percent for the insane salaries is working under a misconception -- namely, that the player' salaries drive the prices we pay for tickets, media packages, hats and t-shirts. They don't. The demand drives the prices; the owners just set their prices to maximize their return, as businesses do. It's just the players now take a good chunk of the pie, instead of owners keeping it all as they once did. And that feels right to me -- even if I don't feel any union solidarity with today's MLBPA.
December 7th, 2010 at 1:37 am
Werth is going from one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball to one of the least. The best comparison I've seen was Jason Bay going from Fenway to New York. I'd guess that's a pretty good example of what Werth's production will look like going forward.
December 7th, 2010 at 2:23 am
John, #8. My understanding is that player salaries as a % of total revenue today are more likely at a historical low than high. Since free agency started revenues have increased enormously. I agree with your other points.