Playing around with Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Pitching Season Finder, I asked it to show me, since 2004, how many Yankees pitchers have posted a season where they appeared in at least 28 games, with 90% of them being starts, and had an ERA+ of 110 (or greater) on the season. Here's that list:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+
 Chien-Ming Wang   2006 2007 26-27       2
 Mike Mussina      2006 2008 37-39       2
 Andy Pettitte     2007 2007 35-35       1
 Randy Johnson     2005 2005 41-41       1

Seasons/Careers found: 4.

That's it. In the last five years the Yankees have only had four starting pitchers to have "very good" seasons - and, in total, these four have authored six such seasons.

Think about that for a moment. Assume that, in a perfect world, you had 5 starting pitchers in your rotation and each of them never missed a turn. That means you would have 5 "starting seasons" per year. Now, multiply that by five seasons (from 2004 through 2008). That's twenty-five.

So, in this department, the Yankees have gone 6 for 25 - or a percentage of 24%. Sounds bad, right?

Well, check out the Boston Red Sox, using the same filters, since 2004:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+
 Curt Schilling    2004 2006 37-39       2
 Tim Wakefield     2008 2008 41-41       1
 Daisuke Matsuzaka 2008 2008 27-27       1
 Jon Lester        2008 2008 24-24       1
 Josh Beckett      2007 2007 27-27       1
 Pedro Martinez    2004 2004 32-32       1
 Bronson Arroyo    2004 2004 27-27       1

Seasons/Careers found: 7.

Boston, over this time, has posted 8 such seasons (from 7 pitchers). So, the Red Sox are at 32%.This makes me think that we should lower that ERA+ bar. What happens if we move it to an ERA+ of 100 (or greater)? Here are those results:

Yankees:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+
 Chien-Ming Wang   2006 2007 26-27       2
 Mike Mussina      2006 2008 37-39       2
 Andy Pettitte     2007 2007 35-35       1
 Jaret Wright      2006 2006 30-30       1
 Randy Johnson     2005 2005 41-41       1

Seasons/Careers found: 5.

Red Sox:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+
 Tim Wakefield     2004 2008 37-41       4
 Daisuke Matsuzaka 2007 2008 26-27       2
 Curt Schilling    2004 2006 37-39       2
 Bronson Arroyo    2004 2005 27-28       2
 Jon Lester        2008 2008 24-24       1
 Josh Beckett      2007 2007 27-27       1
 David Wells       2005 2005 42-42       1
 Pedro Martinez    2004 2004 32-32       1

Seasons/Careers found: 8.

Well, there it is, huh? Since 2004, the Yankees have had just 7 "solid" seasons from a starting pitcher (coming from 5 starters) whereas the Red Sox have had 14 "solid" seasons from a starting pitcher (coming from 8 starters).

This puts the Yankees at 28% for a success rate whereas the Red Sox have a success rate of 56% over the same period of time. Do the math on that one - it's double.

So, if you want to know why the Red Sox have two World Series rings since 2004 and the Yankees have zero, part of the reason is the fact that Boston (and their front office) has lapped the Yankees (and their front office) in terms of identifying and retaining quality starting pitching.

And, unless the Yankees organization can close this front office efficiency gap with respect to filling out a starting rotation, don't expect New York to catch up to Boston, any time soon, in that ring tally board.

This entry was posted on Sunday, December 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am and is filed under Season Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.