Bloops: A Brief History of PECOTA
Posted by Neil Paine on September 27, 2010
One of Baseball Prospectus' most famous contributions to Sabermetrics has been PECOTA, the complex, similarity-score-based statistical projection system that might be more well-known than its namesake at this point. PECOTA has always been -- and likely will always be -- a black box, but today Dave Pease lets the reader peek inside for a small glimpse of the system's history and methodology. They say major changes are forthcoming for PECOTA, so it will be interesting to see which new frontiers BP visits as they push the boundaries of player projection algorithms.
September 27th, 2010 at 10:55 am
I thought it was strange we were going over the history of Bill Pecota. But that is not what you meant.
September 27th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
I'm so behind the curve -- I still use the POCOROBA system. 🙂
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pocorbi01.shtml
September 27th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
#2--Thanks for reminding me of Biff Pocoroba. I have lots of his old baseball cards. I see from your link that Biff was an all star in 1978! Wow--how did that happen? He finished the season with a OPS+ of 72. Must have had a great first half.
September 27th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
Don't feel bad, John and Tm -- I thought PECOTA was some kind of sauce you serve with tortilla chips at a party.
September 27th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
@3
Biff -- er, Albanate -- I don't know how Pocoroba came to make the 1978 A-S team. He did not have a good first half; the Braves were already represented by Phil Niekro & Jeff Burroughs; and the NL had 3 legitimate catchers in Simmons, Bench & Boone. But maybe Pocoroba was taken for the sole purpose of catching Knucksie? Biff did come into the game to start the 9th, and Niekro came on to get the final out.
September 27th, 2010 at 9:12 pm
@1-@5
Totally hilarous! These posts reminded me of why I spend more time in here than in other baseball sites. The average IQ of posters is way high..... , not to mention their sense of humor. Keep it comin'.
September 27th, 2010 at 9:34 pm
@6
Neil L --
Since you like hilarity ... Have you ever read "The Great American Baseball Card Flipping, Trading and Bubble Gum Book," by Fred Harris & Brendan Boyd? Nonfiction, but one of the funniest baseball books ever.
http://www.amazon.com/American-Baseball-Flipping-Trading-Bubble/dp/0395586682
(I have no financial stake.)
"Coot Veal?" ... "Cot Deal?"
September 28th, 2010 at 6:33 am
I prefer the BOCCABELLA system to the PECOTA. PECOTA and Baseball Prospectus has really stunk up the predictions two years in a row.
http://www.dugoutcentral.com/?p=1343
October 1st, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Not easy dealing with disorders.