The 20 biggest post-season pinch-hitting appearances
Posted by Andy on September 2, 2010
Here are the top 20 best performances by a player entering a post-season game as a pinch-hitter, ranked by Win Probability Added:
| Rk | Player | Date | Series | Gm# | Tm | Opp | Rslt | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | WPA | Pos. Summary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kirk Gibson | 1988-10-15 | WS | 1 | LAD | OAK | W 5-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.870 | 5.170 | PH |
| 2 | Cookie Lavagetto | 1947-10-03 | WS | 4 | BRO | NYY | W 3-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.824 | 6.800 | PH |
| 3 | Francisco Cabrera | 1992-10-14 | NLCS | 7 | ATL | PIT | W 3-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.736 | 10.900 | PH |
| 4 | Gonzalo Marquez | 1972-10-07 | ALCS | 1 | OAK | DET | W 3-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.709 | 7.160 | PH |
| 5 | Lenny Dykstra | 1986-10-11 | NLCS | 3 | NYM | HOU | W 6-5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.685 | 3.430 | PH CF |
| 6 | Ed Sprague | 1992-10-18 | WS | 2 | TOR | ATL | W 5-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.669 | 3.940 | PH |
| 7 | Don Mincher | 1972-10-19 | WS | 4 | OAK | CIN | W 3-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.520 | 7.160 | PH |
| 8 | Francisco Cabrera | 1993-10-11 | NLCS | 5 | ATL | PHI | L 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.488 | 7.160 | PH C |
| 9 | J.T. Snow | 2000-10-05 | NLDS | 2 | SFG | NYM | L 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.478 | 2.860 | PH 1B |
| 10 | Dane Iorg | 1985-10-26 | WS | 6 | KCR | STL | W 2-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.461 | 8.620 | PH |
| 11 | Greg Luzinski | 1980-10-11 | NLCS | 4 | PHI | HOU | W 5-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.418 | 2.400 | PH |
| 12 | Luis Polonia | 1995-10-06 | NLDS | 3 | ATL | COL | L 5-7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.408 | 7.390 | PH |
| 13 | Bernard Carbo | 1975-10-21 | WS | 6 | BOS | CIN | W 7-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.404 | 1.735 | PH LF |
| 14 | Ruben Sierra | 2003-10-22 | WS | 4 | NYY | FLA | L 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.403 | 2.910 | PH |
| 15 | Del Howard | 1907-10-08 | WS | 1 | CHC | DET | T 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.401 | 8.400 | PH |
| 16 | Matt Stairs | 2008-10-13 | NLCS | 4 | PHI | LAD | W 7-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.398 | 1.830 | PH |
| 17 | Del Unser | 1980-10-19 | WS | 5 | PHI | KCR | W 4-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.394 | 4.550 | PH LF |
| 18 | Curt Motton | 1969-10-05 | ALCS | 2 | BAL | MIN | W 1-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.393 | 4.440 | PH |
| 19 | Duffy Dyer | 1975-10-07 | NLCS | 3 | PIT | CIN | L 3-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.391 | 10.900 | PH |
| 20 | Johnny Mize | 1949-10-07 | WS | 3 | NYY | BRO | W 4-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.390 | 6.900 | PH |
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:24 pm
My favorite from the list is the J.T. Snow home run off Benitez (who later became a closer for the giants) and the Matt Stairs moon shot off of Broxton
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Wow, Francisco Cabrera appears twice... also, only two of the players on the list (Dykstra and Carbo) got a second PA.
Del Howard is one of two players on the list to not have a hit (Duffy Dyer had a bases-loaded walk) AND the only one to not have an RBI, as he reached on a dropped third strike.
Lavagetto's hit was the Dodgers' only hit of the game.
Cabrera's more famous appearance was the only winner-take-all game on this list.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:03 pm
Surprised no Gene Larkin on this list, with his pinch-hit RBI single to end Game 7 of the 91 Series.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Glanzer, Larkin doesn't appear because with the game tied in the bottom of the 10th, bases loaded and one out, the Twins already had an 84% chance of winning. Larkin's hit was worth just 0.16 WPA. Certainly a great moment by him, just not come-from-behind like many that made this list.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Love it. Especially when you've got Curt Motton and Gonzalo Marquez (who are these guys?!) on the same list as Gibby, Dykstra and Mize.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:32 pm
Didn't Kirk Gibson perform such a feat for the Dodgers a few years back as well?
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:33 pm
#1 on the list, Frank.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Sorry;
For some reason, I didn't even see that. Lord, I miss my mind!
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:59 pm
@Brendan Burke
Actually, Dykstra's PA in the list above is his 2nd PA of the game, not his pinch hitting appearance. Dykstra k'ed in the 7th inning when he pinch hit, only to hit a 2 run HR in the 9th.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:08 pm
All of the top 3 were the same circumstances...2 out, last AB for your team, down a run. Why should the win probability be different in all of these? Make an out, game over; get on base, game goes on. At least with Cabrera, get on base and game tied. And this was Game 7; get on base or go home. Why shouldn't this be ahead of the others? I guess if I understood WPA it would help.
As an aside for you young readers, Lavagetto's broke up a WS no-hitter. Talk about pressure.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:09 pm
Larry, the baserunner situation was probably different, and keep in mind that those aren't the only 2 possible outcomes. Gibson could have walked or singled or doubled, perhaps scoring one run, and prolonging the inning. Exactly where there are runners on base makes a big difference in terms of likelihood of scoring.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Captain Kirk's home run is still the most exciting moment of baseball I've ever seen. Watching it, somehow only a home run or a swinging strikeout would have been the only result. I don't know how, but watching him hobble to the plate, I knew it had to be one of those two results. Any other one would have been inappropriate to the moment.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:28 pm
Francisco %$#@^%&* Cabrera.
No, I haven't gotten over it. Thanks for asking.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:46 pm
So how many more losing seasons do the Pirates need before they can start claiming to have the Curse of Francisco Cabrera? It certainly seems as though in one at-bat Cabrera managed to destroy the franchise.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:49 pm
What would the win probability have been if they had walked Gibson to pitch to Steve Sax?
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:52 pm
#3/#4
This makes me think that there should be a special Series WPA for the postseason.
Gibson's home run was huge, but it came in game one. If you figure winning game one gives you somewhere between a 60 and 70 percent chance of winning a seven game series (I'm just making these numbers up), then Gibson's homer added around .3 * .87 = .26 probability of the Dodgers winning the world series. Meanwhile, in a game seven situation, Larkin's walkoff hit is still worth .16 WPA.
It probably wouldn't be too hard to find a rather smooth function for the percentage of teams that win a series after the series reaches a certain point. I'd actually be surprised if no one has done this yet. Come to think of it, just using a binomial distribution if we know the probabilities for a home or away team to win would probably be the best way to calculate probabilities for each of the possible scenarios.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:57 pm
Dande Iorg's hit in the '85 series is completely forgotten because of Denkinger.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:06 pm
Consindering how many playoff games the Yankees have been in the last 60 years (going back to 1950) it is surprising they only have 1 on the list...and they LOST that game anyway.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:07 pm
Gibson's WPA was over .900 when he walked to the plate. Mike Davis's steal of second during the at-bat lowered it to .870. (Not that I think anybody's feeling short-changed.)
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:52 pm
So, not only does Francisco Cabrera appear twice and in back to back years, but the second time was his last PA in MLB EVER at 26 years old.
I also find it pretty nuts that a Phillie made it on here three times given their limited postseason appearances (only played in postseason 12 times), and they also appear once as the opposing team.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:22 pm
What about Mike Scioscia's home run in Game 4 of the 1988 NLCS? The Dodgers were losing 4-2 in the 9th inning with Dwight Gooden dominating. Out of nowhere Scioscia hits a two-run home run that tied up the game. The Dodgers eventually won it in the 12th inning with a home run from Gibson. If Scioscia did not hit that home run the Dodgers would have been down 3 games to 1 instead of tied at 2 games apiece.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Rick Monday's home run off of Steve Rogers in 1981 is worth mentioning too. That basically sent the Dodgers to the World Series.
September 2nd, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Monday's and Scioscia's homers were great, especially for us Dodgers fans. It's just that Scioscia and Monday weren't pinch-hitting at the time.
New post — "20 Biggest Post-season Plate Appearances"?
September 2nd, 2010 at 7:54 pm
Andy-
Is the aLi based on the season in total or just the post-season? Some of these guys have absurdly high ones, even for PH, who generally have a high concentration of ABs in high leverage situations. I'm also curious if, in general, the leverage index takes into account the game/series situation. Does an identical game situation have a different leverage index if it's the first game of the season as it would if it's the 7th game of the WS?
September 2nd, 2010 at 7:59 pm
In Game Finder results (such as in this post) I think the aLI is an average for that game only. In the case of pinch-hitters who have only one PA, this is obviously a great opportunity for statistical oddities, such as the 10+ LI for Cabrera's LCS PA.
LI does not make any consideration whatsoever of importance of the game, so, no, I don't think LIs would change based on which game was being played. It goes only by the potential swing in Win Expectancy in the given situation.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:03 pm
We all lost it when we heard that Lavagetto hit that double -- especially my sister, who lost a quarter to me {hey, that was BIG stakes back then!}. I won't repeat what she said, but Dad didn't let her listen to the radio for two weeks after that for using such language.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:20 pm
What about Dusty Rhodes? Pinch hit home run to win Game 1 of 1954 WS. 3-3 with 5 BI in 3 pinch hit appearances.
September 3rd, 2010 at 1:27 am
It's interesting, when you think of the 1988 World Series, you think of Kirk Gibson, but that pinch hit homer was actually his only plate appearance in the Series.
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:52 am
I'm still trying to figure out why Eck threw a guy with no legs a low off-speed pitch. Good grief, the guy has no foundation ... high heat.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:57 am
I remember that Kirk Gibson pinch hit home run like it was yesterday. I was actually cheering for the A's that series and when he hit that ball over the fence I got ill. Now, when I watch the highlights or listen to the Dodger broadcast I get chills. That story is great for baseball.
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:56 pm
[...] Kerry Wood got robbed, but kudos to…Del Howard? [...]
September 4th, 2010 at 6:24 pm
@30
Jeff wasn't that the real-life "The Natural"?