Phillies fans beware
Posted by Andy on August 23, 2010
The Phillies seem to be in good position to make the playoffs. They trail the Braves in the NL East by just 2.5 games but lead the NL Wildcard race by 2 games over the Cardinals and Giants.
Based on those numbers alone, I'd think that the Phils have a 60-70% chance of making the playoffs. They control the wild card and can still catch the Braves.
However, according to coolstandings.com, the Phillies are more likely to go home than go to the playoffs. They have just a 47.3% chance to go to the post-season. They are given just a 20.4% chance of catching the Braves--that seems about right given that Atlanta has a significantly better run-scoring edge and a 2.5-game lead. More surprisingly, despite leading the WC race, they are given just a 26.9% chance of winning the wild card. The reason here is that the Reds and Cardinals are both projected to win more games, again thanks to a better run-scoring edge than the Phillies'.
What will actually happen? Time will tell.
August 23rd, 2010 at 1:26 pm
There's another reason the phillies have "only a 26.9% chance" to win the WC. This percentage only counts the times that they are the wild card team, not every time they finish with a better record than the losers of the other pennant racers. Some percentage of the time that they beat St. Louis, SFG et.al. they also manage to beat Atlanta and win the division. Their actual chances to finish well enough vis-a-vis other teams to win the wild card are probably closer to 40%.
August 23rd, 2010 at 2:28 pm
I'm sure this doesn't take into account the fact that the Phillies will have their entire projected Opening Day lineup tonight for the first time since May now that guys like Victorino, Howard, Utley, and Rollins are all finally healthy. In my opinion, when combined with the acquisition of Oswalt, this makes the Phillies a very strong candidate to win the division.
August 23rd, 2010 at 2:43 pm
The Reds and Cardinals each have much easier schedules down the stretch as they have a lot of weak Central Division games remaining. The Phillies only have to beat one of those teams for the wild card though.
August 23rd, 2010 at 4:45 pm
#2 is right
The Phillies have barely had their actual team all year. That's why their run differential isn't that good. Everyone is back now, and they have Oswalt.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:12 pm
The Phils have been there the last 2 years. The team is getting healthy and have picked up important pieces for the run (Oswalt, Sweeney). Thanks to injuries a number of the key players are rested for the playoff run, including but not limited to Utley, Howard and Victorino. If you coolstandings.com considered the Phils record to other teams in August and September for the past three years versus their competitors, it might be more optimistic about their chances. Having said that, coolstandings has had a good trackrecord in recent years predicting winners. Nonetheless, I am bullish on the Phils chances of winning the NL East and even repeating as the National League champions.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:27 pm
Of course, another way to look at it is that the Phillies have been to the playoffs 3 straight years, but few teams ever make it 4 straight. It all depends on your perspective...
August 23rd, 2010 at 8:23 pm
So you're saying the Phillies' success over the last three years makes them less likely to make the postseason this season? Indeed, that is an interesting perspective.
August 23rd, 2010 at 9:08 pm
The Phillies need a better bullpen if they hope to make the postseason.
August 23rd, 2010 at 9:38 pm
maybe i'm just a cynic, but i keep waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Braves. the rotation, outside of Hudson, is way too inconsistent, and the offense is even worse. as much as i like Derrek Lee, i really don't think he is the answer either.
August 23rd, 2010 at 9:45 pm
Don't the Reds have THE easiest schedule this year after the All-Star Break? That's what I read in The Sporting News, anyway.
August 24th, 2010 at 7:58 am
The Reds have a quirky schedule down the stretch. After the fight-marred series against the Cardinals it had 16 games remaining against above-.500 teams, all on the road, this is down to 12 after the series in LA and the first game last night in San Francisco. I'm not sure what this means for its playoff chances, but we can expect the home/road records which early in the season had them much better at home than on the road but are now even to once again diverge. Of the 25 games remaining against under-.500 teams 19 are home games and 6 are road games.
Coolstandings gives a weighted aggregate winning percentage for the Reds' remaining opponents of .470, the Cardinals face .465 and the Phillies .504.
August 24th, 2010 at 8:19 am
To add to what I just wrote, the St Louis is just one of two teams (Colorado being the other) in MLB to have a better record this season against above-.500 teams than against below-.500 teams. In both cases the numbers are very close to even and a St Louis win tonight would give it a slightly better record against sub-.500 teams.
August 24th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
The Braves and Phillies play six times during the last two weeks of the season. Those games will most likely shape the the NL playoff picture, at least as far as the NL East and Wild Card winners. For the Braves to do any damage in the playoffs, it's imperative that they win the division and secure home field advantage--they're an absurd 44-17 at Turner Field (best home record in MLB) and 29-35 on the road.
Oswalt certainly helps the Phillies and Medlen's injury is rough on ATL, although Mike Minor (after only 2 starts) is living up to the hype and can hopefully nail down the 5th starter spot. I still think ATL's pitching is deeper than Philadelphia's...and their bullpen is definitely superior to Philly's...but as noted above, Philly is finally at full strength for the first time and they do have that heavy hitting lineup...
August 27th, 2010 at 11:23 am
@Johnny Twisto: I'm not saying that the last 3 years has any effect on their odds this year, just that few teams make it to the postseason that many years in a row...traditionally, the previous season's champion and playoff participants are overrated by the media, perhaps because of the difficulty of repeating...what the Yankees did in the late 1970s and late 1990s, the Reds in 1975-76, and the A's in 1972-73-74, etc. was truly exceptional...