A-Rod’s HR Totals, 1st 100 Games Each Season
Posted by Steve Lombardi on August 4, 2010
How many home runs has Alex Rodriguez hit in the first 100 games that he's played each season?
Here's one way to look at it:
| Rk | Year | #Matching | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR 6 | RBI | BB | SO | SH | SF | IBB | HBP | GDP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2007 | 30 | Ind. Games | 147 | 124 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 34 | 76 | 20 | 18 | .468 | .537 | 1.355 | 1.892 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | 2002 | 27 | Ind. Games | 122 | 105 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 57 | 16 | 17 | .457 | .533 | 1.400 | 1.933 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | 1998 | 27 | Ind. Games | 133 | 124 | 57 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 51 | 6 | 24 | .460 | .496 | 1.242 | 1.738 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | 2005 | 23 | Ind. Games | 105 | 92 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 51 | 11 | 10 | .500 | .562 | 1.457 | 2.018 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | 2001 | 23 | Ind. Games | 103 | 89 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 60 | 11 | 11 | .494 | .544 | 1.472 | 2.016 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | 2004 | 22 | Ind. Games | 102 | 86 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 44 | 14 | 13 | .407 | .490 | 1.279 | 1.769 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 7 | 2000 | 21 | Ind. Games | 99 | 85 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 43 | 11 | 16 | .494 | .545 | 1.353 | 1.898 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 8 | 2003 | 22 | Ind. Games | 103 | 89 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 38 | 12 | 19 | .404 | .476 | 1.236 | 1.712 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | 1999 | 18 | Ind. Games | 83 | 77 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 39 | 6 | 9 | .532 | .566 | 1.429 | 1.995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | 2006 | 20 | Ind. Games | 91 | 82 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 48 | 9 | 15 | .451 | .505 | 1.268 | 1.774 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | 1996 | 20 | Ind. Games | 99 | 89 | 46 | 12 | 0 | 21 | 53 | 8 | 15 | .517 | .551 | 1.360 | 1.911 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | 2008 | 21 | Ind. Games | 96 | 83 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 39 | 12 | 15 | .530 | .594 | 1.349 | 1.943 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | 2009 | 18 | Ind. Games | 79 | 65 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 32 | 12 | 14 | .400 | .506 | 1.308 | 1.814 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | 2010 | 15 | Ind. Games | 66 | 58 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 41 | 7 | 11 | .517 | .576 | 1.431 | 2.007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | 1997 | 14 | Ind. Games | 69 | 66 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 26 | 2 | 8 | .455 | .471 | 1.167 | 1.637 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | 1995 | 5 | Ind. Games | 23 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | .381 | .435 | 1.095 | 1.530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
.
As you can see, 2009 and 2010 are near the rock bottom of this list. So, is A-Rod losing his home run stroke?
August 4th, 2010 at 9:52 am
Actually, the last THREE years (08, 09, 10) are at the bottom of the list if we leave off 1997 and 1995.
Also, 1995, 1997, 2008, and 2009 are his 4 worst years for hitting HRs. This year he is currently on pace for 24, which would be his lowest total since he was 21.
Something is going on that is not good for A-Rod. Perhaps he isn't a mortal lock to break the all-time record for HRs, after all.
August 4th, 2010 at 9:55 am
You are cooking the data here by using 'team's first 100 games'. for example, he missed a good chunk of games at the beginning of 09. I'd like to see the data for HIS first 100 games each year.
Signed, Not A-Rod fan but fan of Properly Designed Studies...
August 4th, 2010 at 10:00 am
Well, he is 35, and hes not getting any younger, so its not surprising to see his stats slowly decline
August 4th, 2010 at 10:00 am
MarkW - thanks. Not sure if PI allows his first 100 games? I need to check that.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:19 am
Couldn't you get at the topic more simply by just looking HR/PA or HR/AB for each year?
August 4th, 2010 at 10:24 am
Something is wrong with the data... look at the PA and ABs.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:29 am
Brent, if you mean that the PA are too low, it's because the stats shown are only for those games in which he hit a home run. An odd little quirk of the PI.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:59 am
Is the BA formulated based in only games where he picked up a HR? I'm having trouble understanding how he hits .400+ each year in the 1st 100 games. But, by looking at his AB and H totals I think it must be only taking into account games where he actually hit a HR.
true?
August 4th, 2010 at 11:12 am
"Something is going on that is not good for A-Rod. Perhaps he isn't a mortal lock to break the all-time record for HRs, after all."
More importantly, something is going on that is not at all good for the Yanks. How many more years for how many millions are they on the hook? I realize they can eat big money mistakes and I'm sure ARod remains a productive player, but if he ends up a 6 or 7 hitter in the years to come, how are they going to feel paying him $30 mil a year?
August 4th, 2010 at 11:23 am
Jack, yes, in the results, BA formulated based on the games where he picked up a HR.
August 4th, 2010 at 11:27 am
Regarding #4 - Yup, there's no way to do it on his first 100 games, just the team's first 100 games. So, yes, this does impact the data - but, I'm pretty sure it's just for that 2009 season.
August 4th, 2010 at 11:28 am
BSK - IIRC, his contract goes to 2017...and for a whole lotta money...
August 4th, 2010 at 11:30 am
Well if he misses time due to injury, he's not providing value for the team... so in one sense, yes, it's unfair to count those games against him, but in another sense players who don't play the full season don't help their teams as much, and getting injured is as much a part of getting old as is declining ability. Besides, as a former (?) steroid user, A-Rod didn't exactly write the book on fair...
August 4th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
I think we will start to see 34- and 35-year old players with declining performances -- just as you would expect them to, and just as they historically have throughout baseball history until recent years. I credit not only steroid testing but also the crackdown in the HGH supply market which have made it very difficult to attain.
August 4th, 2010 at 12:19 pm
We can check here for A-Rod's contract details.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrial01.shtml
Age regression is built into the contract. The most money is committed for this year and last year and it slowly tapers down to $20M by the end of the contract. Milestone incentives kick in at that point, starting with 660 HR. I presume he gets more money with each person he passes after Mays and if he doesn't get up that high, he doesn't get the bonus? Yankees fans love to hate A-Rod, but they also pride themselves on being the only team that can afford to pay for guys like him so I have trouble garnering sympathy for them. 🙂
The "Most HR through Age 30 Season" list is loaded with guys that didn't age well: Griffey, Foxx, Mantle, Mathews, Ott & Andruw Jones.
August 4th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Surely you have to look at AB/HR to make it fair. Also, I know we are only ~100 games into 2010 but why discount the final 62 games for the other seasons? If you look at his AB/HR each year you get this:
2007 10.8
2002 10.9
1999 12.0
2001 12.2
2005 12.6
2003 12.9
2000 13.5
2008 14.6
2009 14.8
2006 16.3
1998 16.3
2004 16.7
1996 16.7
2010 23.9
1997 25.5
1995 28.4
17 Seasons 14.5
So you can see he is still better than 1995 and 1997 but since 1997 he's had 12 straight years <17 and had a big drop off in 2010. It's hard to say whether he is in decline given that 2008 and 2009 were consistent with his career average, but given he now plays in a very HR friendly park maybe he is. Or maybe it's just the pressure of chasing 600? We'll have to see what the rest of the year and 2011 bring.
Also if you look at his neutralized numbers (which are adjusted to 162 games), he's on pace for 26 homers which would be his lowest since 1997. He also currently owns his lowest SLG, OPS and OPS+ since 1995. So the future doesn't look bright. As I said in a recent thread, the guys is owed $20m in 2017! The Yankees must be hoping he's not in decline already as 2017 is a loooooong way off.
August 4th, 2010 at 12:27 pm
I think he's pressing right now, being on the brink of such an exclusive milestone, and with the insane PA-by-PA media tracking. When he hit his 16th this year, he wasn't on a ridiculously low pace; it's just sunk since then. Once it happens, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he resumes his more normal pace. He may fall short of 30 this season, but he's still productive...tied for 2nd in MLB in RBI.
August 4th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Well, #600 is now in the books for him.
August 4th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
So A-Rod has finally hit #600. I can hear sobbing and delirious Yankee fans saying, "I've waited two weeks for this!". The nation can now go back to regular programming, thankfully, as this millstone, sorry milestone, has passed. For non-Yankee fans his 600th is like passing a stone. Painful to experience and glad it's over!
August 4th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
I'm a non-Yankee fan and I say kudos to ARod. I get that there is good reason to dislike the guy, but regardless, he is one of the most phenomenal players to ever play the game and probably the best guy who I've been old enough to really witness his whole career. Good for him.
August 4th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
Mike - FWIW, I would have found it just as interesting if he went another two weeks without hitting it as it was him hitting it today. Either way, it makes for good baseball conversation.
August 4th, 2010 at 3:07 pm
If the Yankees continue to perform well up though 2017, the A-Rod contract won't hurt them (in fact it will probably be in the middle of the pack as far as Yankee salaries go and Boros will want to renegotiate because A-rod had 12 HR in 2016). It would only hurt if Baseball intituted a salary cap.
BUT if they start to fall off (missing the playoffs more often than not) due to aging/retiring core guys (Pettitte, Rivera, Posada, Jeter) and A-Rod it would be a different story. Not to mention if Sabathia can continue to perform well at his size. Also who knows if they will continue to be lucky with their Free Agent signings (getting Sabathia and Texeira) or role players performing well (Gardener/Swisher) or if the young players will truly become great players (Hughes, Joba - right now Cano is the only young guy that is a superstar).
If the Yanks showed anything during the 1980's and from 2004 through 2008, the most money spent doesn't necessarily get you to the World Series.
So if it starts to go wrong for the team, those A-Rod paychecks will be very hard to sign.
August 4th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
Isn't a lot of that money still being paid by the Rangers? Make what you will of how much he makes, but that's really more of Texas' fault, even when you consider his extension, than the Yankees'.
August 4th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
No, once he signed a new contract with the Yankees, the Rangers were off the hook (except for those deferred payments we discussed recently).
August 4th, 2010 at 4:37 pm
He only needs to average 33 Hrs over the next 5 years to pass Bonds, which I see him easily achieving. Even though he has had injuries the last two years, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a 40+ season or two in him still. The question will be can he pass Bonds before he turns 40, that would be impressive.
August 4th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Yeah, using the team's, rather than his, first 100 games each season makes the numbers a bit misleading. Nevertheless, his performance so far this season, while still productive, is certainly well off his normal standards. Age does seem to be slowly creeping in.
Flyingelbowsmash, averaging 33 HR a year for the next 5 years will be a very difficult thing for him to do; the 'only' modifier doesn't belong there at all. He's 35, and is only getting older. Performance traditionally begins to decline noticeably by this age. I'll be seriously impressed if he comes close to even averaging 30 HR a year for just the next 3 years. Not saying he won't do it, but it'll be very impressive if he does, and not at all a given.
August 4th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
I wouldn't be so certain he will get there. I think he will but it's still not a given. Some players who are among the HR leaders at age 34 who didn't have a lot of success after that point:
Griffey 129 HRs in 6 years
Killebrew 86 HRs in 5 years
Sosa 70 HRs in 3 years
Mantle 40 HRs in 2 years
Mathews 19 HRs in 2 years
Foxx 7 HRs in 2 years
Ruth and Mays are the only guys who had 500 HRs by age 34 and hit 200+ after that age.
I certainly won't bet against A-Rod but it's not in the bag yet. Anything can happen in 5 years. A-Rod averaged 159 games a year from 2001-2007. Since then he has started missing games and his homer rate has fallen away.
August 4th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
*Hmm neither Ruth or Mays hit 200 HRs after age 34 - the age 34 leaders page counts the age 34 season in both before and after age 34 totals. So in fact Aaron who I somehow missed off in my last post is the only guy to hit 500HRs up to and including age 34 then still hit another 200 afterwards. Obviously A-Rod has hit 600 so only needs another 150 after this year which is why he has a great shot, but it's not a foregone conclusion. I will watch with interest...
August 4th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
If you set the PI for games with PA>=0 instead of HR>=1 for his team's first 100 games, you will have all of his stats through 100 games, not just homeruns,
August 4th, 2010 at 6:55 pm
I meant to put a period at the end of that last post, not a comma.
August 4th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
@29
That's a great idea, thanks.
August 4th, 2010 at 10:57 pm
You are most very welcome.
August 5th, 2010 at 6:39 am
Let's put it all into another perspective. The Babe hit 714 in 8390 AB's. A-Rod hit 600 in 8684 AB's. Hank Aaron hit 755 in over 12000 AB's and 600 in over 10,000 AB's. I am not, repeat not deterring anything from anybody, but The Babe will always rule. Best of luck to Alex. He'll need allot of work to do.
August 5th, 2010 at 7:37 am
Sorry, deterring is not the word, I mean detracting.
August 5th, 2010 at 7:44 am
Steve Lombardi - it would have been interesting if it took another 2 weeks for A-Rod to get there and you're right, it DOES make for great baseball conversation! So, this morning comes word that the government is on the verge of going after Lance Armstrong for PED use. Listening to Mike and Mike on ESPN this morning, I'm stunned at all the people willing to give him a break. Why? because of the millions he helped raise for cancer? That's great work but, if guilty, he's as much a fraud as A-Rod and Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, et al. Why does the general public villify only baseball players, but are willing to give passes to Lance Armstrong and every NFL player who used PEDs? Why no outrage?
August 5th, 2010 at 8:35 am
Mike, Why is vilification foremost on your mind. The focus should be making things better for the future and put the past behind us. Show me the halo over your head and maybe you would deserve to pass judgement on others.
August 5th, 2010 at 8:50 am
@33
If its HR/AB you are interested in, there's a leaderboard for that:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/at_bats_per_home_run_career.shtml
Mark McGwire is the all-time leader by a healthy margin. 583 HR in just 6187 AB in 1874 G.
August 5th, 2010 at 10:56 am
[...] A-Rod's HR Totals, 1st 100 Games Each Season » Baseball-Reference … [...]
August 5th, 2010 at 11:53 am
@37 -- certainly an interesting leaderboard on the whole. Then at #15 is...Russell Branyan?!?!?
August 5th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
Very interesting list. Shows that home runs aren't everything. Guys like Dunn and Branyan are clearly not in the same league as A-Rod and Pujols.
I find it very interesting to compare Pujols and A-Rod. Pujols doesn't have as many HRs but could surpass A-Rod in many categories. If he's clean, all the more impressive.
August 5th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
Drew, you're right. Making things better for the future should be the focus, but it will bother for a long time that baseball players take all the heat from the media and fans for PED use but no one really seems to care much about football players. I don't see the difference. NFL players, Lance Armstrong, do what baseball players have done, deny, deny, deny (OK in the case of Lance Armstrong it's only allegations) but when it has been proven they did it and they are suspended, only baseball players face public shame. PED use and doping extend to many sports beyond baseball, I'm angered that onlt baseball players face intense public heat for it. I guess I feel this way because I love this game so much. It was the thing my Dad and I could always enjoy together. It refelects our nations history. It was the first team sport to mean anything in this country. Sorry if I'm getting all "Terrance Mann" here!!!
August 5th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
@40
Pujols is a better hitter than A-Rod. I think everyone concedes that. Its the positional adjustment that evens things. A-Rod spent the first half of his career at SS.
August 5th, 2010 at 4:54 pm
He's 35 and had hip surgery last year. I think it's safe to say he's in the decline phase. The question is how quick and how low. My guess is he'll still be a solid threat to hit about 30 HRs a year for a number of seasons, but his days of being a threat of hitting 45 are done.
August 5th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Baseball is the one sport that seems to be held to a higher standard when it comes to steroids. It's ignored in the NFL, NBA, etc. And the one sport that probably 100% of the top players are juicing is tennis. It's never mentioned.
http://tennishasasteroidproblem.blogspot.com/ (safe)
August 5th, 2010 at 6:43 pm
Looking at the HR/AB list, I got to thinking about Adam Dunn and what will be made of his career/legacy when it is all said and done. He turns 31 in November and likely will end the season with around 360 HRs. He hits 40 HRs just about every year (including 4 consecutive years of exactly 40). He BA and Ks are always on the negative side but his BBs, OBP, SLUG, OPS, and OPS+ are always very good. His RBI numbers never jump out at you for a middle-of-the-order power hitter and his defense leaves a LOT to be desired. Plus he's a rather ho-hum guy who has never had a really stand-out year but has been consistently productive throughout his career. If he keeps this up for another 5 years plus a few hanger-on years at the end, he could end up with some pretty impressive totals, but in terms of raw stats and rate stats. But he'll probably always look unfavorable using the "traditional" metrics. Curious guy with a curious career.
End threadjack
August 5th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
As for ARod, we can't assume he'll hit 400+ post-35 HRs like Bonds nor can we assume he's "just" a 25 HR hitter now. The fact is, we never know what will happen for any player. And a guy like ARod is particularly hard to project because of the unique talent that he is. Personally, I see no reason to think ARod doesn't have a few really good power seasons left in him (30+) and think that, between his contract, his strangeness, and the fact he's in the AL, he'll probably be in position to tack on a few subpar overall years with a decent amount of HRs to "pad" his total. I wouldn't be surprised if he breaks Bonds record and gets to 800 and I wouldn't be surprised if he falls well short. Everything is conjecture at this point.
August 5th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
I posted that I think ARod will cruise to this and 5 more 33 HR seasons are doable - if he stays healthy. To me the advantage he has is that he doesn't have a big bulky body to wear him down. I think he should even slim down some more and I doubt he would lose much if any power. Seems like guys with smaller body masses tend to last longer (Visquel, Rickey Henderson). I could see him have another 40 hr season or two, if he can stay in the line up.
Why Branyon and Dunn are so high in the HR/AB is they walk so much and don't accumulate the ABs. That list would be interesting to see HR per PA. I think the advanced stats overrate walks a bit. You want your clean up hitters to drive in runs, not stand on first. McGuire, Dunn, Branyon, and Thome are great at drawing walks but now you have some of the slowest professional athletes in the history of sports clogging up the bases. Why are walks "drawn"? Interesting idiom.
August 5th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
Flyingelbowsmash-
What would you like them to do when they are being thrown pitches that aren't particularly hittable? I'm sure during the PA for any given walk, they might have seen some hittable pitches. But in general, a walk is "drawn" as a result of a pitcher throwing pitches out of the strike zone. Would you prefer your clean up hitters flail wildly at pitches they likely will miss, pop up, or hit meekly? Good luck with that.
August 5th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
I think they do let good pitches go by and I see it a lot. I was mainly responding to the comment that non-superstars (Branyan) were so high up on the list of HR/AB. And, I think some guys get inflated advanced stats from walks who otherwise aren't considered great hitters. It also makes hitters who don't walk a lot look poorly, Ichiro for example. I am sure anyone would love to have him on their team. I also agree with a previous commenter that Ichiro would be an interesting 3 spot hitter who could drive in runs without a high HR total (As opposed to someone like McGwire, the king of the insignificant solo homer in an out of reach game).
August 6th, 2010 at 9:50 am
Re Ichiro driving in runs....I was recently looking at the 2001 season to see where I would have placed Ichiro on my MVP ballot. He hit about .450 with RISP that season. However, he averaged less than 1 RBI per hit with RISP. Almost all his hits were singles, and some of those were surely infield singles. The AL average was about 1.5 RBI per hit with RISP.
The average WPA of a McGwire HR was 0.137. I don't know who you would identify as hitting lots of clutch HR. The average WPA of a David Ortiz HR has been 0.131. Anyone who hits as many HR as McGwire is going to hit some that are "insignificant." An incredible 3.6% of his career HR occurred with the bases empty and up by at least 4 runs.
August 6th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
So Ichiro averaged .401 RBI per AB with RISP. The AL average was .387. Not nearly as productive as his BA would indicate. (Of course, it's possible Ichiro RISP opportunities were not as RBI-friendly as the "average" RISP opp -- more guys on 2nd than 3rd, 1 guy on instead of 2.)
August 6th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Jason Giambi (who I think probably deserved the '01 MVP) batted a mere .354 with RISP, but averaged nearly 2 RBI per hit, for a total of .637 RBI per AB. (Obviously even Ichiro's biggest supporters wouldn't think he's as good at driving in runners as prime Giambi, so it's not really a fair comparison. Just interesting to look at.)
August 6th, 2010 at 9:07 pm
JT-
I'm pretty sure at one point the Mariners moved Ichiro to the 3 hole for precisely the reason stated, his high BARISP. It ultimately failed because so many of Ichiro's hits are infield hits or bloops or flairs that didn't give most runners a chance to score unless they were already on 3rd. I'll try to look up details.
August 6th, 2010 at 9:16 pm
Ichiro has 13 GS in the 3-hole with 56 PAs. He hit 353/411/412, slightly higher BA/OBP and slightly lower SLUG than his career. In those 56 PAs he racked up a mere 3 RBIs, a rate far below his career rate. Obviously, that's a fairly small sample size, but it's all we got. He does have a number of PAs at other lineup spots, but those all appear to be as a PH.
Also:
In 950 AB with a runner on only first, he knocked that guy in only 34 times (48RBI-14HR).
In 414 AB with a runner on only second, he knocked that guy in 74 times (77RBI-3HR).
In 115 AB with a runner on only third, he knocked that guy in 50 times (51RBI-1HR).
I will say that his walk rate, particularly his IBB, is much higher in the latter two scenarios, which likely had an impact as well. I don't know what the "averages" are for these situations, but my hunch is that Ichiro rates fairly low in terms of percentage of batters on first he drove in and probably somewhat low even on the guys on second.
Not the cleanest research, but I think it's fair to say that even a high BARISP doesn't necessarily directly correlate to high RBI totals, and not just because of the players around you.
Note: I didn't do any of the other baserunner situations because it's too hard to determine which runner scored from which base.
August 6th, 2010 at 11:55 pm
I seem to recall Ichiro doesn't like batting elsewhere in the lineup.
Obviously he's very dangerous with a man on 3rd and it's no surprise he gets walked a lot in those situations.
August 7th, 2010 at 7:53 am
Indeed. He's a dangerous hitter no matter where he hits in the lineup, but his lack of power prevents him from being the typical "run producer" some people think he can be.