Joe Mauer’s feat that is rarer than no-hitters and cycles
Posted by Andy on July 27, 2010
Last night, Joe Mauer had 5 hits and 7 RBI while the Twins obliterated the Royals. Turns out this is quite a rare feat. Click through to see just how rare.
A player has had at least 5 hits and 7 RBI in a game just 44 times.
Here are the 10 most recent occasions:
| Rk | Player | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | WPA | RE24 | BOP | Pos. Summary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Mauer | 2010-07-26 | MIN | KCR | W 19-1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.071 | 5.397 | .238 | 3 | C |
| 2 | Troy Tulowitzki | 2009-08-10 | COL | CHC | W 11-5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 6.742 | .408 | 4 | SS |
| 3 | Victor Martinez | 2004-07-16 | CLE | SEA | W 18-6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.130 | 6.116 | .403 | 4 | C |
| 4 | Shea Hillenbrand | 2003-07-07 | ARI | COL | W 14-6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.620 | 6.925 | 1.142 | 4 | 3B |
| 5 | Casey Blake | 2003-07-05 | CLE | MIN | W 13-2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.213 | 6.359 | .604 | 6 | 3B |
| 6 | Shawn Green | 2002-05-23 | LAD | MIL | W 16-3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.303 | 7.052 | .433 | 3 | RF |
| 7 | Jose Canseco | 1994-06-13 | TEX | SEA | W 17-9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.233 | 6.547 | .502 | 3 | DH |
| 8 | Danny Tartabull | 1992-09-08 | NYY | BAL | W 16-4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.273 | 6.697 | .586 | 4 | RF |
| 9 | Will Clark | 1991-07-14 | SFG | PHI | W 17-5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.223 | 6.273 | .805 | 3 | 1B |
| 10 | Tom Brunansky | 1990-05-19 | BOS | MIN | W 13-1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.221 | 6.995 | .722 | 4 | RF |
Recently I mentioned that over this same period, there have been 230 cycles. So it's about 5 times rarer for Mauer to do what he did than to hit for the cycle. Since 1920 there have been 176 no-hitters of at least 9 innings, so that's about 4 times rarer.
Another thing I noticed: Mauer's performance yesterday had the lowest WPA of all of them going back to 1950. (We don't yet have WPA values for games 1920-1949). That's because by the time he came up in the first inning, the Twins were up 1-0 with a runner on third and no outs, already with a 67% chance of winning the game. Mauer's single pushed it to 71%, but by the time he came up again, it was already 92%.
Shout out to Raphy (not Ralphy) for bringing this to my attention. He heard it discussed on Mike and Mike in the Morning on ESPN Radio.
July 27th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Keep in mind that there are only 2 starting pitchers for each game, but 18 spots in the batting order for both teams. Therefore, it is about 36 times harder for a hitter to achieve 5H and 7 RBI than it is for a pitcher to hurl a no-hitter.
July 27th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Has it ever happened in a close game?
July 27th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Umm...
...what?
July 27th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
from the list of 44 players, only 3 catchers on the list. Mauer, Martinez, and Walker Cooper back in 1949. 6-7 10 RBI!
July 27th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
@1...interesting calculation. OMB has a job for you.
July 27th, 2010 at 2:21 pm
He is saying you have 9 times as many hitter per game as pitchers, so since 1920 say there were about ~175,000 games (?) played, so there were 176/(175,000*2 starting pitchers) no hitters but only 44/(175,000*18 position hitters) 5H, 7RBI performances. So what Mauer did was 9*(176/44) more rare by a factor of 36.
July 27th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Andy,
I'm simply saying that there is a difference in comparing a starting pitcher's single game accomplishment with an offensive player's single game accomplishment. There are 9 hitters who start a game compared to 1 pitcher.
If that concept is too difficult for you to comprehend, then I'll try to simplify it. In a season of 162 games, a team will start only 162 starting pitchers. However, they will have 1,458 offensive starters (162 X 9).
Therefore, if you consider the fact that there are 9 times as many batters than pitchers, the statistical likelihood of a batter achieving 5 hits and 7 RBI in a game is reduced dramatically. That's why I would divide the number (44) by 9 before determining how much 'harder' it is for a position player to achieve this individual game feat than it is for a pitcher to achieve a no-hitter.
Hence the 4 x 9 = approximately 36 times harder.
July 27th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
Umm, and how about the fact that to throw a no-hitter, a pitcher has to get past 27+ batters without allowing a single one of them to get a hit, and to get 5 hits and 7 RBI depends on number of plate appearances, number of runners on base, etc. Both scenarios are incredibly complicated to calculate from an odds perspective and your analysis is so drastically oversimplified that it adds no value to the discussion.
July 27th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
I get it and I apologize. 'Rarer' rather than 'harder' is more preceise.
July 27th, 2010 at 2:40 pm
I could have said the same thing about your statement that it's about 4 times harder to get 5 hits/7 RBI in a game than to pitch a no-hitter. Your conclusion took none of that data from post #8 into account.
July 27th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
JDV, I only used the word 'harder' because Andy used it in his original post.
July 27th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
My post says rarer.
(Admittedly after I just edited it...heh.)
You're right Pete.
July 27th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
Well, looking at the scores of the 44 games where a player had at least 5 hits and 7 RBI, I can only assume that other players had stellar offensive games as well. In fact, in only 5 of the 44 games (~11%), did the team fail to score at least 13 runs. Surely, the opposing pitching in the other 39 games must have stunk up the joint.
And sure something similar could be said about pitchers who have had no-hitters: the offense on the opposing team must have been terrible. But certainly a fraction of no-hitters come at the expense of really good offensive teams. I would wager a tidy sum that that fraction is greater than 11%.
July 27th, 2010 at 4:28 pm
Has it ever happened in a close game?
See Andy's link in the second paragraph of his post. Twice the five-and-seven man's team won by one run, and once by two runs. (All three of those games went into extra innings.) There was also a 1987 game in which Mickey Brantley could have used some help. It's the only time in the PI Era a player has had five hits and seven RBIs and his team lost. Incidentally, rookie Edgar Martinez made his first big-league start in that game.
July 27th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
Would it be fair to count all starting pitchers, but only count those batters that had 5 PA's as the starting points for calculating the "rarity" of each event (in terms of how often the events have happened in the past as opposed to often they might happen in the future)?
This, however, would not allow for IBB or HBP or managerial decisions like bunting - which would cause the player to not "legitimately" have a shot at 5 plate appearances (even though his box score says 5 PA's). But it would still be better than counting all batters given that a vast majority would not have a chance at 5 PA's (How many pitchers for away teams get 5 PA's?).
But then you run into guys that only have 4 PA's, but would have had 5 if they had gotten 4 hits themselves, and how those guys are counted.
Like everyone has said, this is too complicated, nevermind.
July 27th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
I was following this game on CBS Game Tracker:
In the 8th inning it was Mauer's turn to bat.
1 Out, man on first.
But they pinch hit for him.
I was shocked because he could have hit and if he got on, then been pinch run for.
In the Game Recap Story Gardenhire said he asked him if he wanted to hit?
He said, "no I'm good"
Gardenhire said: "That's good enough for me"
Oh, yes: The pinch hitter Drew Butera hit into a double play...
July 27th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
There is no such thing as "4 times rarer". It is "1/4 as common" or "happens 25% as often" or something similar. To use a different example: if the sound of a jet airplane is 100dB and that of a whisper 50dB, the whisper is not "twice as quiet", it's "half as loud". Decibels don't measure quietness, they measure loudness; in the instant case, we don't measure "rareness", we measure "frequency".
Sorry to be the grammar police, but that's one of my pet peeves. English is a wonderful, powerful, and flexible tool -- but only if you use it correctly.
July 27th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
When I wrote it I I knew it was grammatically incorrect but assumed that nobody would be enough of a stickler to point out something so unrelated.
July 27th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
It seems that while this achievement is rare, it seems to come in bunches:
2 in the same game by Giants teammates against the Phillies on June 1, 1923. The Phillies had also been the victims of such a feat in 1922.
Jimmie Foxx doing it in both 1932 and 1933.
Bob Johnson doing it in both 1937 and 1938, both for the Philadelphia A's against the White Sox in Chicago.
Dave Parker doing it, as part of a winning team, the day after Mickey Brantley in 1987.
Shea Hillenbrand and Casey Blake doing it two days apart in 2003.
July 27th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
Andy a bit on the defensive today?
July 27th, 2010 at 11:31 pm
[...] about Joe’s 5 hits and 7 RBIs game against the Royals two nights ago! Credit to Baseball-Reference.com Last night, Joe Mauer had 5 hits and 7 RBI while the Twins obliterated the Royals. Turns out this [...]
July 28th, 2010 at 8:02 am
"To use a different example: if the sound of a jet airplane is 100dB and that of a whisper 50dB, the whisper
is not "twice as quiet", it's "half as loud". Decibels don't measure quietness, they measure loudness;"
Interesting that you totally screwed up your example. Decibels are actually a logarithmic scale, so 100dB is NOT twice as loud as 50 dB. In fact, something that is 53 dB is about twice as loud as something that's 50dB.
If you're going to be picky, you should pick your examples better.
July 28th, 2010 at 8:04 am
baseball baseball baseball baseball baseball
July 28th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
In Sandberg's case, his WPA was >1.000. Also Willie McGee hit for the cycle in the same game.