October Game Changers
Posted by Steve Lombardi on July 23, 2010
Take this one for what it's worth...but I like to think of it as guys who changed a post-season game with their bat...via Play Index, of course.
The query used for this one was: Batters In the Postseason, From 1903 to 2009, Games with WPA >=.6
| Rk | Player | Date | Series | Gm# | Tm | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | SH | SF | ROE | GDP | SB | CS | WPA | RE24 | BOP | Pos. Summary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kirk Gibson | 1988-10-15 | WS | 1 | LAD | OAK | W 5-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.870 | 5.170 | 9 | PH | |
| 2 | Steve Garvey | 1984-10-06 | NLCS | 4 | SDP | CHC | W 7-5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.853 | 1.800 | 3 | 1B | |
| 3 | Charlie Keller | 1941-10-05 | WS | 4 | NYY | BRO | W 7-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.832 | 2.238 | 5 | LF | |
| 4 | Cookie Lavagetto | 1947-10-03 | WS | 4 | BRO | NYY | W 3-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.824 | 6.800 | 1 | PH | |
| 5 | Michael Tucker | 1998-10-12 | NLCS | 5 | ATL | SDP | W 7-6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.811 | 1.724 | 8 | RF | |
| 6 | Stan Hack | 1945-10-08 | WS | 6 | CHC | DET | W 8-7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.808 | 1.537 | 1 | 3B | |
| 7 | Brian Jordan | 1999-10-08 | NLDS | 3 | ATL | HOU | W 5-3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.806 | 2.742 | 4 | RF | |
| 8 | Jimmy Rollins | 2009-10-19 | NLCS | 4 | PHI | LAD | W 5-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.746 | 2.414 | 1 | SS | |
| 9 | Francisco Cabrera | 1992-10-14 | NLCS | 7 | ATL | PIT | W 3-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.736 | 10.900 | 9 | PH | |
| 10 | Gary Carter | 1988-10-04 | NLCS | 1 | NYM | LAD | W 3-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.724 | 2.067 | 7 | C | |
| 11 | Devon White | 1993-10-20 | WS | 4 | TOR | PHI | W 15-14 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.719 | 1.727 | 2 | CF | |
| 12 | Thurman Munson | 1978-10-06 | ALCS | 3 | NYY | KCR | W 6-5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.718 | 1.592 | 3 | C | |
| 13 | Ivan Rodriguez | 2003-10-03 | NLDS | 3 | FLA | SFG | W 4-3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.716 | 3.307 | 3 | C | |
| 14 | Gonzalo Marquez | 1972-10-07 | ALCS | 1 | OAK | DET | W 3-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.709 | 7.160 | 8 | PH | |
| 15 | Dave Henderson | 1986-10-12 | ALCS | 5 | BOS | CAL | W 7-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.703 | 2.460 | 8 | CF | |
| 16 | Erubiel Durazo | 2003-10-01 | ALDS | 1 | OAK | BOS | W 5-4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.701 | 2.835 | 2 | DH | |
| 17 | Lenny Dykstra | 1986-10-11 | NLCS | 3 | NYM | HOU | W 6-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.685 | 3.430 | 9 | PH CF | |
| 18 | Alex Rodriguez | 2004-10-06 | ALDS | 2 | NYY | MIN | W 7-6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.683 | 2.107 | 2 | 3B | |
| 19 | Sandy Alomar | 1997-10-12 | ALCS | 4 | CLE | BAL | W 8-7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.675 | 1.902 | 7 | C | |
| 20 | Ed Sprague | 1992-10-18 | WS | 2 | TOR | ATL | W 5-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.669 | 3.940 | 9 | PH | |
| 21 | Terry Pendleton | 1985-10-20 | WS | 2 | STL | KCR | W 4-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.661 | 3.190 | 7 | 3B | |
| 22 | Hal Smith | 1960-10-13 | WS | 7 | PIT | NYY | W 10-9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.637 | 5.100 | 6 | C | |
| 23 | Adam Kennedy | 2002-10-13 | ALCS | 5 | ANA | MIN | W 13-5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.634 | 1.387 | 9 | 2B | |
| 24 | John Olerud | 1999-10-16 | NLCS | 4 | NYM | ATL | W 3-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.633 | 2.038 | 2 | 1B | |
| 25 | Scott Brosius | 1998-10-20 | WS | 3 | NYY | SDP | W 5-4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.624 | 1.707 | 6 | 3B | |
| 26 | Harry Hooper | 1915-10-13 | WS | 5 | BOS | PHI | W 5-4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.622 | 1.410 | 1 | RF | |
| 27 | Jeff Mathis | 2009-10-19 | ALCS | 3 | LAA | NYY | W 5-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.603 | 2.345 | 8 | C | |
| 28 | Marquis Grissom | 1997-10-09 | ALCS | 2 | CLE | BAL | W 5-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.602 | 1.570 | 9 | CF | |
| 29 | Larry Walker | 2004-10-23 | WS | 1 | STL | BOS | L 9-11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.601 | 1.700 | 2 | RF | |
| 30 | Vladimir Guerrero | 2009-10-11 | ALDS | 3 | LAA | BOS | W 7-6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 2.682 | 4 | DH |
.
All close final scores, as expected, sans Adam Kennedy's 3-homerun game on October 13, 2002. And, all these came in winning efforts with the exception of Larry Walker's big game on October 23, 2004.
What's really impressive is Hal Smith, Ed Sprague, Gonzalo Marquez, Francisco Cabrera, Cookie Lavagetto and Kirk Gibson, getting it done in one Plate Appearance. And, of course, Smith and Cabrera pulled it off in a Game 7.
And, for those keeping score, the Yankees have 4 players on this list, and, the Braves, Angels and Mets each have 3 on the board.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:54 am
I'm immensely satisfied that statistics back up exactly how I feel about Gibson and 1988.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:09 pm
Growing up a Thurman Munson fan, his HR @ #12 on the list is my favorite HR ever hit by anyone. It went over the 430' sign in deep left center at yankee stadium, and by 1978 his power had decreased tremendously (only 6 HR that year I believe - not that he ever had a lot of power). But even after catching all of those games that year, he worked up the energy somehow. That was his last big hit.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:27 pm
@Tmckelv - that was a long drive off Doug Bird - I can still hear Bill White in my head, being happy about his Ohio buddy driving it...
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:45 pm
No Chris Chambliss, 1976 ALCS, Game 5?!
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:53 pm
It seems like the series clinchers don't seem to make the list for whatever reason...no Joe Carter, Aaron Boone or Bill Mazeroski. I guess other AB's in the games dragged them down.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:58 pm
That Hal Smith HR has to be the most underappreciated HR ever. It is obviously overshadowed by Mazeroski. Go into the Box Score for that 1960 WS game 7 (last 2 innings), they are ridiculous. Talking about it here wouldn't do it justice.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:00 pm
3 HR's in a World Series clinching game doesn't make the list? Reggie?
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Nevermind... this list is big time hits... None of those HR's were clutch. My bad.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:38 pm
Do these aLI factor in the importance of the game such as playoff elimination game etc because they seem pretty high? Is that why Francisco Cabrera is so much higher than Gibson because it was a game 7 vs. a game 1..they both had 2 out walk-off 2 RBI hits?
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:40 pm
hooplah,
Only one of Jackson's HR were while the Yankees were behind and it was in the 4th inning. The other two were with the Yankees already leading. They were incredibly helpful to his team, but they didn't significantly change the probability that his team would win. You already have good odds to win when you're already leading.
That's why Kirk Gibson's ranks so high. There were two outs in the bottom of the ninth with his team losing when he entered the game.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Now that you bring it up though, I've always wondered what the moron Dodgers pitchers were thinking. If any player came up in a game today, let alone a WS game, having just hit a HR on the first pitch in his last AB, there's NO WAY the pitcher gives him something to hit on the first pitch again. The Dodgers did it three AB in a row!
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:13 pm
#9 It was the baserunners. For Gibson, he was the winning run. For Cabrera, the winning run was already on base at the time of his hit.
Steve--awesome post!
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Thanks, in general though, does the aLI change based on the importance of the game? That would be cool if it did for playoff elimination games or late September must-wins.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:57 pm
This seems such an obvious thing to look up I'm surprised it's never been posted before (that's not at all intended as an insult though it might look that way). I guess WPA was just added to the PI so that's part of the reason. It is great to quantify these performances, many of which are among the famous postseason games of all time.
Mike/9, no, the game of the series is not taken into account. But one certainly could figure out a way to do that, a Series Win Probability Added.
Some other notable games:
Bobby Thomson 1951 (technically a regular season game): +.774
Huh, I was going to look up some of the other games mentioned in the comments, but the postseason boxscores don't have the WPA listed in the boxes. I guess PI can search them but it's not easy to find manually.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:58 pm
Mike,
No, it would treat the same situation, (score differential, inning, outs, bases occupied), as being identical no matter which game in a series, (or season) it is. It also ignores the players, that is in the situation where Gibson hit his HR, it would give the same figure no matter who was on the mound, on base, on deck, etc. I don't know enough of the details of how it is implimented here to say whether or not it vary with the park, and teams; since it should change with the run environment, which would be affected by these factors.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:12 pm
I am not surprised to see Sandy Alomar on here, but when I saw his name I thought it was the HR off of Rivera in 1997. Boy he had a good post-season.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:16 pm
Im talking about the leveral index, not the WPA.
Maybe somehow leverage each AB with resepct to how much it increases your chances of winning the WS? So Bobby Thompson's AB lets his team get to the WS bringing their chances of winning the WS from 1/16 all the way up to 1/2 (assuming each team has an equal chance) and Bill Maz took the pirates from 1/2 to 1/1. Something like that maybe would allow you to rank the highest leverage ABs in baseball history!
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:18 pm
I guess when Thompson hit it the only teams that could have won the WS were the Giants or Dodgers, or the Yankees so he went from 1/3 to 1/2. And you could use historical trends to see how important winning game 1 of the WS increases your chances to leverage Gibson's AB etc.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:28 pm
Kds, it does take the park and run environment into account.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:48 pm
@Tmckelv #6,
Well said, I was thinking the same thing. The Hal Smith HR in game 7 of the 1960 world series has to be the most under-appreciated big time post-season moment in baseball history. It's never talked about or he's never interviewed and it's never brought up when they talk about the 1960 world series.
The Pirates were down 6-7 in the bottom of the 8th with 2 outs and Hal Smith hit a 3 run home run to give the Pirates the lead 9-7. What's also left out of the story of that game is that the Yankees came back and tied the game in the top of the ninth. But if they Pirates had held on to the lead in the top of the ninth Hal Smith would have been a household name and world series hero and Maz would have never gotten in the HOF.
The reason why Fisk, Chambiss, Carter, Mazerowski, or Boone don't appear on this list is that the score was tied when they hit the HR, their teams wasn't on the verge of losing the game.
The Keller double in the '41 series is another underrated play. I guess all the attention is on Mickey Owen dropping the third strike on Henrich but there was still 2 outs and the Yankees were behind when Keller hit the double in the top of the 9th to put the Yankees ahead. If Casey gets Keller out, Owen is a footnote is WS history.
Stan Hack is a very underrated player and should be in the HOF. I've never read about his 12th inning double with a man on first to win the game 6 for the Cubs in the 1945 series.
July 23rd, 2010 at 6:34 pm
I was surprised that none of Mr. Octobers {Reggie Jackson} heroics made this list
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:06 pm
It's interesting to see how many of those that weren't game 7's (or game 5's in the Division Series or the pre-1985 League Championship Series) turned things around for that day's winning team, only for that team to eventually lose in that series. I counted 8 such games. I also noticed that there was one in which the team of the player who got the game-changing hit eventually lost that game. I had remembered that Boston beat St. Louis in the 2004 World Series, so I had incremented my count to 9 when I looked at the next-to-last entry showing a Cardinals player doing it against the Red Sox in that Series. But then I remembered that it was a sweep and noticed that St. Louis still lost that game.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:40 pm
I totally forgot about the Gary Carter double with two outs in the top of the ninth with two men on base down 1-2 in game #1 in the 1988 NLCS.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:15 pm
@ 20 John Q
"The reason why Fisk, Chambiss, Carter, Mazerowski, or Boone don't appear on this list is that the score was tied when they hit the HR, their teams wasn't on the verge of losing the game."
If by Carter, you mean Joe Carter, I can assure you as a Phillies fan that the score was most definitely NOT tied when he hit his walk-off HR. 🙁
July 24th, 2010 at 11:34 am
Richard,
Good catch, my bad on that one. I thought the score was tied for some reason.
The bigger question is why isn't Joe Carter on this list? Bottom of the ninth down by a run man on first and second with 1 out? His WPA on the boxscore is 66% which should put him around the Terry Pendleton/Hal Smith territory. Why isn't he on this list??? Is it a glitch?
The Bernie Carbo 1975 HR is another underrated post-seasons HR. That comes out to a 44% by comparison, I think Fisk' HR is around a 36% WPA.
July 25th, 2010 at 8:44 am
Note that the WPA shown here is not always for a single at-bat... it sums up a batter's WPA for the game. Brian Jordan, for example, had to clutch hits in 1999 for total of about .800 WPA, but no single hit was worth more that .410.
July 26th, 2010 at 7:59 am
Joe Carter's at-bats, for Game 6 of the 1993 World Series:
1st inning: sac fly, +2%
3rd inning: groundout, -1%
5th inning: groundout, -0%
8th inning: flyout, -8% (after the Phillies rallied to take the lead)
9th inning: home run, +66%
Overall ~= 0.59
Carter probably just missed the cut for 30th. Players like Cabrera and Gibson have it much easier, because they had one at-bat with high implications.
July 26th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
There should be a regular season list as well for this.
July 27th, 2010 at 7:56 am
[...] October Game Changers (Baseball-Reference). Steve Garvey had one of the biggest hits ever in a postseason game as a member of the Padres. On an unrelated note, I wonder if the Dodgers will ever retire his number. [...]