Jim Thome ties Harmon Killebrew with 573 career home runs
Posted by Andy on July 3, 2010
Jim Thome has just tied Harmon Killebrew for 10th on the all-time HR list at 573.
How beautiful that Thome did it in a Twins uniform!
Let's do a quick comparison:
- Thome hit his 573 HR in 9612 PA (one HR every 16.8 PAs.) Killebrew hit his 573 HR in 9831 PA (one HR every 17.2 PAs.) This is astonishing to me--I would have expected Thome to have a much bigger edge given the era in which he played. Moreover, from this point to the end of Thome's career, his numbers are almost certainly going to get worse, i.e. he is going to homer less frequently now than during his peak.
- Killebrew had an OPS+ of 143 and Thome is at 146. My guess is that Thome will finish his career right at 143.
- Thome has 421 doubles, 25 triples, and 1646 walks. Killebrew had 290 doubles, 24 triples, and 1559 walks.
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Wow, after I wrote this, Thome homered in his second at bat to pass Killebrew with 574 HR.
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:21 pm
Pretty cool moment at Target Field with Harmon Killebrew presenting a message on the video board to Jim Thome.
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:22 pm
That was ridiculous. Cool, but clearly disrupted the game and frazzled everybody.
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Really?
I sure did not think so. Game didn't change that much, if at all, after it.
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:35 pm
Highly abnormal and bizarre (though cool, agreed) and it definitely affected the next batter, who swung out of his shoes to try to homer as well.
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:46 pm
The next batter was Delmon Young. He is not immune to swinging out of his shoes at any moment - video or no video.
July 3rd, 2010 at 5:29 pm
Ever thought of having a poll on Thome's chances of making it to the HFO? Comparing him to Killebrew would be great fun, whether you consider WAR or Win Shares among other things.
Thome 67.8 WAR (63rd) + 356 Win Shares (94th) in 9611 PA.
Killebrew 61.1 WAR (101st) + 371 Win Shares (83rd) in 9831 PA.
July 3rd, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Thome would be a good subject.
July 3rd, 2010 at 5:55 pm
@7
Here's the fangraphs version of that comparison:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=1006905&playerid3=409&playerid4=&playerid5=
Its a bit confusing that the WAR values are so different between here and fangraphs. Are they both based on Sean Smith's formulas? It would be great if someone could write a comparison essay between how the two sites calculate WAR.
July 3rd, 2010 at 6:05 pm
My data comes from B-R, so it's Sean Smith's formula. Agreed that a comparison between Sean's and Fangraphs' methods would help lots of us here.
July 3rd, 2010 at 6:09 pm
Is there really any debate as to whether or not Thome belongs? I suppose the only real knocks on him are A) Era and B) DHing. Not that those are small potatoes, but the advanced stats still indicate what a phenomenal player he was.
July 3rd, 2010 at 6:11 pm
There also could be : "C) He doesn't have great post-season numbers." But you're right, he is phenomenal.
July 3rd, 2010 at 6:14 pm
Innuendo-
I said "REAL" knocks on him. I'm sure some people will use that in arguments. But we all know what hooey that ultimately is. Or, we SHOULD know, at least.
July 3rd, 2010 at 6:36 pm
Thome later grounded into his 150th career double play. It was touching when they stopped the game so Sal Bando, Tony Armas, and Fred Lynn (149 GIDPs) could deliver their congratulations on the big screen.
July 3rd, 2010 at 7:15 pm
DavidSF is right when he says that "Its a bit confusing that the WAR values are so different between here and fangraphs." And not just a bit: for your info, Fangraphs has 78 cumulative WAR for Killebrew's career and 71.4 for Thome. That is quite a difference between the 2 formulas because B-R's and Sean's gives the edge to Thome by more than 6 points.
July 3rd, 2010 at 7:19 pm
I got no patience for all the free swingers like Thome who rack up a million HRs and then everyone says "he's a lock for the HOF". Thome is a glorified version of Dave Kingman. You go to the plate, swing as hard as you can, and hope for the best. Killibrew struck out in in every six ABs- twice as good as Thome's. Killibrew won an MVP. Thome can't even play the field. I've never been impressed by him.
July 3rd, 2010 at 7:45 pm
Don't forget, he got Run No. 1500 a few days ago, thus joining the elusive and (IMO) under-rated 1500R/1500RBI club.
July 3rd, 2010 at 7:52 pm
Barkfart, your statement comparing Jim Thome to Dave Kingman shows how little you know about baseball. Thome's batting average is about 40 points higher than Kingman and his on base percentage is over 100 points higher. You should call yourself brainfart instead.
July 3rd, 2010 at 7:52 pm
Comparing Thome and Kingman is silly. For one, Thome has a +.400 lifetime OBP. In that, the comparison to Killebrew is very apt. But Kingman? No.
July 3rd, 2010 at 8:00 pm
Masternachos, this 1500/1500 club of yours is quite a who's who. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/MpscC
July 3rd, 2010 at 8:18 pm
@Innuendo- I know, right? Every eligible member is in the HOF, and of those ineligible, I can only think of Palmeiro and Sheffield of having any trouble getting inducted (both due to PEDs, as well as Sheffield's perceived attitude).
Yet, Luis Gonzalez was ONE GOOD SEASON away from entering the club (totals in the 1400s), yet I can't think of many supporters for HIS candidacy.
July 3rd, 2010 at 8:20 pm
Pete, best comment ever! Well done.
July 3rd, 2010 at 8:27 pm
Did someone really just compare Jim Thome to Dave Kingman - calling Thome a 'free swinger?'
Isn't this a place to find educated baseball discussion?
July 3rd, 2010 at 10:08 pm
Jones is going to join the 1500 1500 club before the year's out, and Mathews is one of the more conspicuos near miss guys...
July 3rd, 2010 at 10:13 pm
Evans, Dwight, didn't miss by much 1470 1384, big numbers for a player that didn't get a lot of respect...
July 3rd, 2010 at 10:17 pm
wow... only 2 players, ruth and aaron, are in the 2K/2K club... A-Rod next...
July 3rd, 2010 at 10:51 pm
So, will Thome make it to 600?
I'm a lifelong Indians fans, which means I'm also a huuuuuge Thome fan, but frankly I don't see his HoF candidacy as being a slam dunk. Things that I think he has going against him (most of them completely unfair measures of his career):
He's a DH (all them old guys still don't consider them players)
Steroids Era
#2 all time in SO
Hasn't passed the 600 HR mark (yet)
Only once voted higher than 7th for MVP
Only 5 AS games
Only 1 Silver Slugger
Poor post-season numbers (although a career OPS of .809 isn't that bad)
What will probably be the difference maker is what happens with Edgar Martinez in the upcoming votes. I'd hate to have to see Thome face the argument "They didn't even put Martinez in, why should they put Thome in?"
July 3rd, 2010 at 11:17 pm
I'm sure there are lots of guys who could make arguments for better finishes in MVP voting, but Thome's 7th place finish is PARTICULARLY egregious. He shouldn't have won, but he should have finished better than 7th... not one, not two, but THREE players finished ahead of him with sub .335 OBPs. That's just criminal.
July 3rd, 2010 at 11:18 pm
That should say his 7th place finish in '02.
July 4th, 2010 at 1:03 am
That "free swinger" Jim Thome is 10th all-time in walks. In fact, by passing Killebrew on the HR list, he's joined Ruth and Bonds as the only players in the top ten in both home runs and walks.
July 4th, 2010 at 3:22 am
You know, Djibouti, Thome played over 1500 games in the field... he's not exactly edgar martinez. edgar played 600 out of 2000 (roughly)... while thome is at 1600 out of 2300 (again roughly).
July 4th, 2010 at 3:22 am
those numbers are games played in the field out of total games... sorry.
July 4th, 2010 at 5:33 am
Oh my God, do you any of you people ever watch a real baseball game, rather than just bury your noses in the stats?
Dave Kingman is an icon of the high strikeout goon. And as for Killibrew, some of you might not know this, but there used to be a day when players could hit 30 home runs without striking out one ever third at bat (or less).
Maybe you should develop an ironic/sarcastic stat so you could get a chuckle out of that comparison.
July 4th, 2010 at 5:55 am
Thank you, Andy! I had to scroll WAY down on the GIDP list to find Thome's name. The guy typically doesn't hit a lot of ground balls.
Just for fun, I was wondering if there are any players who were teammates of Sal Bando, Fred Lynn, AND Tony Armas. There are many who teamed with 2 of the 3, but I wonder if there is a 3rd. That would be a good scavenger hunt. The closest I came was Joe Rudi, who teamed with Bando, obviously. He also teamed with Armas at the end of his career. Rudi didn't team with Lynn, but they were once traded for each other.
July 4th, 2010 at 6:00 am
Re: My above post.....I found someone who teamed with Sal Bando, Fred Lynn, and Tony Armas, in that order. He also had a very productive career. Name that player!
July 4th, 2010 at 6:07 am
Reginald Martinez Jackson, must be.
July 4th, 2010 at 6:12 am
and Thome never got a single season mvp 1st place vote.
July 4th, 2010 at 6:57 am
Assuming nothing comes out on Thome about steroid use, he'll be a first ballot HOF inductee. The writers may prop him as an example of guys who could play the game clean and get into the HOF.
July 4th, 2010 at 10:19 am
Andy - I thought Reggie would be the guy, but there is someone else who played for the same teams as Reggie, albeit at different times. Teamed with Bando first, then Lynn, then Armas.
July 4th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
@39
Don Baylor?
Could also be Wayne Gross
July 4th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
Barkfart, one thing to keep in mind is that overall strikeout rates are higher now than they used to be. When Killebrew started his career, it was less than 5 per 9 innings. Now, it's 7 per 9 innings. That's a 40% increase. It's not really fair to compare Killebrew and Thome's K numbers straight up. I think the guys were just about equally productive, as evidenced by their very similar OPS+ numbers--even if Thome has struck out more often.
July 4th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
I thought Killebrew would by far have the fewest 2bs with over 9k plate appearances but Butler and Bowa have even fewer, though in several hundred fewer PAs too.
July 4th, 2010 at 6:20 pm
@42
Huh... fun question. You need some power to hit a double. I checked HR/Double ratios for players with more than 100 career HR and got the following list:
McGwire - 2.3135 (583/252)
Killebrew - 1.9795 (573/290)
KPhelps - 1.9219 (123/64)
Kingman - 1.8417 (442/240)
Kittle - 1.7600 (176/100)
Kiner - 1.7083 (369/216)
BoJackson - 1.6395 (141/86)
... RHoward, Sosa, CFielder, Gentile, Cash, FHoward, Mantle, Deer, Zernial, McCovey...
a lot of lead-footed sluggers on that list. A few of those surprise me (Sosa, Mantle) as they could run when they were younger. Thome is 32nd (1.3689) between Adam Dunn and Roy Campanella.
July 4th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Ok...you folks convinced me. Thome will be our HOF poll subject next week.
July 4th, 2010 at 7:00 pm
Teammates of Rudi, Bando and Armas? My guess would be Bert Campaneris
July 5th, 2010 at 6:57 am
DavidRF correctly guessed Don Baylor. Baylor was a teammate of Bando in 1976 with Oakland, with Fred Lynn in California in the early 80's, and with Armas and the Red Sox in 1986.
July 5th, 2010 at 7:05 am
DavidRF, that's more like what I was trying to get at and was surprised to see Bowa and Butler's name pop up...
July 5th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
Thome is a HoFer, certainly not a first balloter, but certainly much better than Kingman....that was just not a good comparison. My guess is Thome will go in between years 5-10 as should probably Edgar Martinez. Killebrew was better for sure, but Thome's still a HoFer.
July 5th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
Maybe you should develop an ironic/sarcastic stat
I did, and your comparing Thome to Kingman and then asking if any of us ever watch the games set a single-thread irony record. Congrats!
July 5th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
That was a good one Johnny Twisto. Classic.