39 Responses to “WAR Data: Best Position Players Not In the Hall of Fame”

1. DavidRF Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 2:14 pm

   Nice lists.

   1901 is not an unreasonable cutoff but all the HOF-ers that were active in 1901 have had their careers cut in half. George Davis actually has 90+ career WAR. Beckley 60+. Joe Kelley 55.5. Might be a good idea to remove everyone with a "From" date of 1901 so as not to confuse people. (We do lose Honus Wagner that way but nothing controversial about that pick :-)).

2. Len Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 2:26 pm

   Great post.

   Although Bucky Harris shouldn't be on this list, he was elected as a manager. That would be like including Tom Lasorda as a pitcher.

   Your also not including "peak" performance, just career.

3. Rich Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 2:30 pm

   Dick Allen

4. Johnny Twisto Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 2:37 pm

   Weight was an interesting column to include in the tables.

5. kingcrab Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 2:38 pm

   although whitaker has similar creds, i'll give the edge to larkin (roy, mvp, ws, gold gloves, silver sluggers...)

6. BCC Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 2:54 pm

   Dwight Evans, all the way! Evans and HoF Rice (a legit borderline pick, IMO) have amazingly similar career stats:

   Evans Rice
   HR 385 382
   H 2446 2452
   OPS+ 127 128
   OBP .370 .352

   1st 1972 1974 (1st Year with MLB AB)
   Last 1991 1989

   Difference is, Evans played longer (+2 years on either end), but with less pop. And could throw.

7. Keith Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 2:57 pm

   Is Steve Garvey on the list? He is the only 10 time All-Star not in the Hall of Fame. I think he shold be in.

8. Johnny Twisto Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 3:02 pm

   Billy Southworth was also inducted as a manager. Red Schoendienst is probably for the combination of his managing and playing.

9. Kevin S. Says:
   May 19th, 2010 at 3:06 pm

   Fisk was not the last catcher inducted. He was inducted in 2000, Gary Carter was inducted in 2003.

10. Neil Paine Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 3:11 pm

    Thanks for the corrections, guys, I fixed the tables. Not sure why weight is a default column in the minimal results layout, though.

11. dquinn Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 3:49 pm

    Why is Whitaker at 69.7 one of the biggest injustices but Santo at 66.4 falls short? Looks like they would have fairly similar cases.

    It looks like you are penalizing Santo because there are more 2b than 3b in the Hall

12. Jerry Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 3:53 pm

    It's hard for me to fully embrace a statistic that says Lou Whitaker was a better player than Robby Alomar. He was certainly a very good player, but I can't think of too many Hall of Famers that were platooned as extensively as Whitaker was.

13. Neil Paine Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 3:55 pm

    Santo was on the ballot 15 times and didn't get in, which I suppose is a different kind of injustice. Whitaker hardly got any chance at all -- one ballot, 2.9% of the vote, and he hasn't been on since. And the Sandberg comparison just makes it even more ridiculous. I think Santo has suffered because some of the 3B inducted since he became eligible were all-time legends, but Whitaker at 2B doesn't even have that explanation.

14. Josh Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 4:07 pm

    Lofton is showing up in the table with 55 WAR instead of the correct total of 65.3 WAR.

15. Charles Saeger Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 5:13 pm

    Garvey: not on the list, rightly. He wasn't good enough for the Hall.

16. DoubleDiamond Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 5:40 pm

    Is Pete Rose missing from the above list because he played too many different positions to qualify for any one position? I hope that's the only reason. I strongly believe he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

17. DavidRF Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 5:53 pm

    @8
    Rose is 8th on the top list. He's excluded from the lists below because he has never been eligible. I don't think anyone questions that Rose would be an easy selection if it weren't for the eligibility issues he has. The eligibility issues are a completely separate debate.

18. DavidRF Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 5:54 pm

    Whoops... that should say @16. I had 8 on the brain with the 8th.

19. Len Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 6:02 pm

    This was a great list, but I just have a few problems with it.

    The 1901 cut-off short-changes a bunch of players plus it leaves out great HOF 19th century players like, Roger Connor, Cap Anson, Dan Brouthers, Ed Delahanty, Jesse Burkett, and Billy Hamilton.

    I think Bill Dahlen is one of the players with the most career WAR with out being in the HOF.

    Rod Carew and Paul Molitor should be on this list somewhere.

    The outfielders should probably be listed individually, LF, CF, RF. Because it seems like the HOF standards are lower for LF, than they are for CF.

20. Len Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 6:17 pm

    3b is really strange.

    Only 10 players, 2 of them were terrible selections, Kell and Lindstrom. Electing Kell and Lindstrom is like electing Tim Wallach, Gary Gaetti, Jeff Cirillo or Don Money.

21. Len Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 6:21 pm

    And Collins and Traynor at 3b are around 15th-20th all time. Traynor is probably 20th-25th all time. So you basically only have 6 of the top 15, 3b alltime in the HOF. There's no other position like it.

    And it looks as if the Median Career WAR number are about (50) for every position except 3b where it's about (60)!!

22. Spartan Bill Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 8:29 pm

    I wonder if there is someone out there who can devise a formula of some sort and call it PWAT or something like. Peak wins over replacement.

    This stat would give players the gift of hindsight---i.e. knowing when they should have retired.

    Let's look at Ted Simmons t the end of the 1983 season, he had 53.3 WAR, but he hung on until 1988, and over those last 5 years he had only 2 positive WAR seasom, and his career WAT dropped a few points down to 50.4.

    Ron Santo left the Cubs with a WAR of 68.4, but that ill-advised year on the South Side, lowered that total to 66.3

    That raises the issue of whether a player (barring some sort of bizarre circumstance {Rose, Mcgwire} play himself out of the HOF??? I say no they can't. If you accept that premise, perhaps this is a better measure of ranking the candidates and excluded players.

23. BSK Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 9:03 pm

    Spartan Bill-

    I brought up a similar idea on the McGriff discussion board. It seems that some guys ultimately get discounted for hanging on too long. And while there is certainly something work criticizing at times (paging Mr. Griffy, Jr.), I don't see how a guy can really detract from his candidacy by hanging on, though some seem to.

    The extreme example I threw out there was whether we'd feel more strongly about a guy with 497 HRs over 15 seasons or 500 over 24. Knowing nothing but that, I'd lean towards the former. But, if we learned that the latter had hit 497 of those HRs in the first 15 years and spent the next 9 getting 3 more, would we feel the same way? Now, obviously that's an extreme example which would presumably have the second guy with at least a few seasons where he was a woeful detriment to the team. But, barring a guy actively sabotaging his team for a few years at the end of his career, I don't think it's fair to EVER hold that against him.

24. BSK Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 9:07 pm

    I don't think I made my point that clearly... basically, what's better, 10 great years? Or those same 10 great years with 5 more average ones at the end? For me, it's clearly the latter.

25. masternachos Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 9:30 pm

    @Spartan Bill: Where did you get those career WAR numbers? Did you figure them out yourself, or is there something on baseball-reference that I'm missing? I'd really like to know, it seems fascinating.

26. Len Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 9:43 pm

    Spartan Bill,

    You bring up a very good point.

    I think what really hurt Simmons as far the HOF goes is that lasting image of him as an overweight DH/1b hitting .250 for the last 5 years of his career. If he had retired in 1983 with his .292 average, mostly as a catcher, he might have been voted in.

    I think the thing that hurt Santo was that he had the misfortune of having great years during the second "Dead Ball" era 1962-1968. So unfortunately by 1980, those 60's numbers didn't look as impressive. He also had a very sharp decline phase that didn't help the public's perception.

    Recently I found an old "Boys Life" in my attic from 1969 with Santo on the cover. In the article the writer frequently referred to Santo as "future HOF Ron Santo". So it's not like there just revisionist history as Ron Santo HOF.

    I think Trammell and Whitaker were a victim of the offensive explosion/steroids during the late 90's early 2000's. Suddenly the two great offensive middle infielders numbers didn't look as impressive in 2001 as the same exact numbers looked in 1991. I remember trading baseball cards during the early 90's and both Trammell and Whitaker were sold as future HOF. Trammell was seen as a first, second or third ballot HOF, Whitaker was seen as taking a bit longer but eventual HOF.

27. charlie Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 9:56 pm

    Bobby Grich #12? Who??

28. Spartan Bill Says:
    May 19th, 2010 at 11:31 pm

    @ masternachos

    The WAR numbers are on the B-R player pages, they are labeled PLAYER VALUE -BATTERS , below the hitting stats, but above the Postseason batting

    .

29. TheGoof Says:
    May 20th, 2010 at 7:09 am

    Why am I not surprised to see Whitaker, Trammell and Raines so high? It seemed obvious to me at the time that they were among the all-time greats. It seemed obvious to other people at the time, or so I always thought.

    I voted for Torre, adding his managerial success to his near-HOF playing career. But for strictly playing career, I'd say Trammell.

30. Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive » WAR Data: Best Starting Pitchers Not In the Hall of Fame Says:
    May 20th, 2010 at 3:37 pm

    [...] I looked at the best eligible position players not in the Hall of Fame by WAR, and you responded with your votes by choosing Tim Raines as the non-HoFer you felt was most [...]

31. masternachos Says:
    May 20th, 2010 at 4:18 pm

    @Spartan Bill
    Thanks.

32. argman Says:
    May 21st, 2010 at 1:15 pm

    One thing about career WAR is that they don't seem to take "peak value" into account. An extreme example is Hank Greenberg. He has 56.8 WAR in 1394 games, while Eddie Murray has 68.6 WAR in 3026 games. More than twice as many games for Murray, and less than 20% more WAR. And when you consider that Greenberg missed 3 or 4 seasons (sorry, too lazay to look it up) while serving in the military, you can't say that is part of his "value" as a player. This is related to the point that BSK made earlier. I voted for Larkin, but could easily see any of the above in the HOF, with the possible exception of Martinez.

33. Another day, another guest post: WAR and the Hall of Fame | Baseball: Past and Present Says:
    May 21st, 2010 at 2:14 pm

    [...] for Baseball In-Depth, examining a Baseball-Reference blog post that ranked the best pitchers and position players not in the Hall of Fame based on their WAR [...]

34. TigersType Says:
    May 22nd, 2010 at 1:05 pm

    As a lifelong Tigers fan, I sure don't remember Lou Whitaker being platooned. He was our leadoff hitter no matter who was pitching. This is a guy who is 4th all-time in games played at second base. Part of that is longevity, of course, but you still don't get there being platooned. I'm not arguing he should be in the Hall of Fame, but I'm not getting the suggestion that he was "extensively" platooned.

35. Joey Says:
    May 22nd, 2010 at 7:40 pm

    We're missing a very important player from the Hall of Fame shortstop list: Ernie Banks!

    Per Santo: it's an interesting inquiry. Statistically there are some compelling reasons to bring him in--what isn't taken into account is that the guy could be a cancer to his teams at times. Those intangibles are hard to incorporate when voting, but are some important in terms of team chemistry. In the same vein, while A-Rod outdoes Jeter statistically, there's no doubt in my mind I would build a team around Jeter over A-Rod. Chemistry is key in the clutch--hence Bonds has 0 rings, as would be the case for A-Rod minus Jeter.

36. An open letter to Baseball-Reference and the statistical powers that be | Baseball: Past and Present Says:
    May 23rd, 2010 at 2:38 am

    [...] the heels of a pair of great Baseball-Reference blog posts this week ranking the best pitchers and position players not in the Hall of Fame based on their Wins Above Replacement data, I may have created a new [...]

37. Charles Saeger Says:
    May 24th, 2010 at 5:16 pm

    TT@34: Whitaker was platooned starting in 1990. From 1987 through 1989, Whitaker started 285 games against righties and 102 games against lefties. From 1990 through 1992, he started 329 games against righties and 27 against lefties. He had great trouble hitting lefties.

    C@27: You're joking, right? You don't know who Bobby Grich is? I'll assume you're under 30. Classic underrated ballplayer, was the best player on the 1979 Angels but the team DH won the MVP; arguably should have been the MVP in 1981.

38. MHB Says:
    May 25th, 2010 at 9:35 pm

    (A little off-topic)

    Not that the Bambino needs more padding for his numbers, but Babe Ruth's listed WAR of 172.0 doesn't include his pitching WAR of 18.0. Absolutely amazing to look at what he did.

39. Joe Garrison Says:
    May 30th, 2010 at 10:12 pm

    You have Andre Dawson at number 41.... he of course is a (newly elected) HOFer.